If the Republican Party looks more like the Trump coalition and the Democratic Party looks more like the Obama coalition, then the states Democrats must win will no longer be Ohio and Iowa, said David Wilhelm, a manager of Bill Clintons first presidential campaign and a former Democratic national chairman who lives in suburban Columbus. They will be Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.
Yet that same Obama coalition was enough to hand the president a two-point victory in Ohio in 2012, when the states demographics were no less challenging for Democrats. The difference now, Ohio voters and strategists from both parties say, is in the two candidates and the issues at hand.