His AA support dropped from 19% yesterday to 14% today. If this is just a weird sampling problem, I would expect a drop to 6-8% tomorrow, like last bump.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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His AA support dropped from 19% yesterday to 14% today. If this is just a weird sampling problem, I would expect a drop to 6-8% tomorrow, like last bump.
User 85168
Banned
Trump Calls NBC News Anchor and Fellow GOP'er Lester Holt 'A Democrat'
Say it with me everyone:
#RIGGED
Let's get it trending!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Say it with me everyone:
#RIGGED
Let's get it trending!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The LATimes poll surveying the same people over and over does give kind of a cool look at what at least hints (not definitive obviously) of how wishy washy people are about this freaking election. It seems the sample is skewed Trump for sure, but watching the same people switch from Trump to third party to Clinton back to Trump is...intriguing. I'm curious how representative it will end up being when all is said and done.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
How many black people are in that USC poll panel? lol.
Ugh, those damn Ipsos polls with Trump +3 and Clinton +3 nationally in another one.
I was feeling so hopeful and then I click on 538 and saw those.
Hope we finally get better polls tomorrow and in the run up to the debate. I don't want to go into the debate with only a C +.07 o +1.0 point position in the polls. I'm going to be a nervous wreck starting Sunday night.
I was feeling so hopeful and then I click on 538 and saw those.
Hope we finally get better polls tomorrow and in the run up to the debate. I don't want to go into the debate with only a C +.07 o +1.0 point position in the polls. I'm going to be a nervous wreck starting Sunday night.
You might be able to reverse engineer it if you grab enough of those polls and see what the minimum movement is.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I swear they're going to be like the Gallup of this cycle. 2012 looked a lot closer in the aggregate because while most pollsters were showing Obama up 2-3 points they were shitting up the averages with howlers like Romney leading by 7 points or whatever.
Except Gallup actually has a reputation and pedigree.
Today was a good polling day for Clinton.
Two +5 Florida polls including one from Monmouth
Two +5 national polls
538 just adjusted the shit out of them because TRENDZ. They also included a bunch of Ipsos polls from the past few days that seemed weighted way greater than a daily poll should probably be.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Actually Monmouth got adjusted far less this time then in August.
Which, hilariously, their adjusted prediction of Monmouth in August was from +9 to +5.
Funny how that works.
That said, I do think by the end of the week the trends from most polls taken in the last week (9/15-9/19) will show a small tilt towards Clinton - but not enough of them to make up for the hit she took earlier in the month yet. Gotta remember polls are usually a week or so back.
False.
At the time Monmouth released that poll it was adjusted to +8 on 538. Their model adjusts every single poll in their entire backlog. To meet their current trend.
Remember the +13 Monmouth national poll from early August? It now reads +9 in their adjusted section. It read as +12 back when they originally input it.
Want proof? Take a mental note of this weeks polls and check back in like 3-4 weeks and see what they say.
RustyNails
Member
Ignore the Trump skew or whatever you want to call it. The poll is fine for looking at general trends. But Trump's AA support is literally a square wave. It's a low resolution sample whose value is heavily affected by their weighting multiplier. IMO.
Spiritreaver
Member
Meh, I try not to judge 538 too harshly. I'm not a statistician nor do I really get the secret sauce of their model. Seeing her drop further in their model despite some decent polling raises eyebrows to me, but I just assume I don't know any better, lol.
I mean I'm surprised that other Reuters tracking polling did so much damage. I figured she'd be up over 60% again, lol.
I mean I'm surprised that other Reuters tracking polling did so much damage. I figured she'd be up over 60% again, lol.
Republicans have such a hard on about getting Obama to say radical Islamic extremist. One day if it were to happen again where a guy starts shooting up a planned parenthood in the name of God or the Democrats condemn the way Christians in Africa treat homosexuals, they just come out and say radical Christian extremists. Just so I can see the collective faces of the GOP turn that bright shade of constipation red.
Blargh, I fail at English. You're right, meant to say that it adjusted their August trend and the auto-adjustment hit where Monmouth ended up being now. (I am assuming they are not manually adjusting the data outside of their algorithms because that would be, uh, shady)
Still - assuming the adjustment is automatically generated and not dishonestly manually entered - it appears to have at least predicted the current August to September trends well.
Yeah, that AA support number has always been like "uhhhhhhhh what?" I am curious as to how the breakdown of the voters are (haven't looked too hard for them, not sure if it is provided). I'd laugh if it is in single digits or something bonkers like that.
That guy is stuck in the Reagan era. I'd feel kind of bad for him if it were not for his grotesque love of Trump. The best was when he said "Trump called me earlier and ---" and someone called him out for never talking to Trump. He never even fought it. (This was a couple weeks back.)
eBay Huckster
Member
i guess the main thing that's getting me hot and bothered about the models is i can at least see what makes PEC tick (and to some extent, the upshot)
meanwhile it's not actually settled whether 538 just has an autoadjustment because if you try to reveal the model's innards, ESPN will murder your family at halftime of MNF
meanwhile it's not actually settled whether 538 just has an autoadjustment because if you try to reveal the model's innards, ESPN will murder your family at halftime of MNF
Missed this post, but I think you're right about the bolded part. The 1600 folks have talked about how the polarization is harsh enough that anything above a 5 pt victory would be incredible. I think what his gaffes have done is seen in that he is stuck around 40%, but when Clinton drops 5%...he goes up a percent or so IIRC. It's the inability to take those leaning voters and convert them when he should be able to. Which is pretty good news for Clinton, as her floor might just be flat out higher than his ceiling.
Post #2074
Adjusted Post number #2078 (+4)
(following the increasing post number trendline)
whyamihere
Banned
PPP just said their new poll has Cooper up by 4 or more.
eBay Huckster
Member
best carolina once again
RustyNails
Member
Silver Fox has caught his prey
Anderson is pretty popular, he's doing well standing up to Lord Trump.
Trump's surrogates are morons. "In Trump's opinion it's true." regarding African American communities being the worst they've ever ever ever been. Anderson's response-ish: If i say in my opinion i can fly it doesn't make it true.
whyamihere
Banned
They had Cooper as a 7-8 on the Dem Happiness Scale and POTUS as a 4-5. So my guess is that Hillary +1 or a tie.
Spiritreaver
Member
Can't wait until Trump wins Now-cast and Silver spams Twitter.
Seems like the trend lines in polling have been fairly sinusoidal in nature. If the pattern continues, then Hillary should be up in November. Of course none of this matters if she completely bombs the debates, but Trump has proven to be awful on the debate stage so I don't really see that happening. Fingers crossed.
The last dip was clearly because of Hillary's sickness.
Impossible to say where the race will be a week from now without seeing the debate.
That's why I was cautioning you last week over freaking out over the polls 'tightening.'
RustyNails
Member
I think it was because of that Deplorables line. Cohn tweeted that the last two days of polling during the controversy showed an uptick.
So I guess the RAND poll is not continuous this year, unlike in 2012, but is instead conducted in waves. We should get some new data just after the first debate, and then after the last one. USC Daybreak replaced RAND in the continuous poll slot, though their methodology differs.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Good times.
Hope they show a Ross lead too.
Willing to bet it's a Dem sweep in NC for statewide elections, Ross, Cooper and Clinton.
Remember back in July when they had Trump at 49.something% for a few hours, then updated him to 50.1% with no new polls added? That was fun.
Aaron Strife
Banned
PPP did a swing state poll asking about Social Security, I hope they asked about Senate/pres and we see those soon.
http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/SocialSecurityPollMemo 9-20-2016.pdf
Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/SocialSecurityPollMemo 9-20-2016.pdf
Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Oh yesssss. This will be a great day when it happens.
Very likely they did.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
But this is the point of outliers, and also my point about treating stats as a religion instead of a science. Ann Selzer herself will tell you that she'll produce outliers. It's just how statistics works that everyone gets some outliers. Nothing in that post you quoted is off the mark. A person (and I suspect Selzer herself!) is very right to be suspicious about sub-04 turnout since the trendline (Nate's own favored metric) for that over the last two decades has been an increase in minority turnout.
I think the last line is probably pretty true. It's going to take an insane scandal from Clinton plus some great weeks by Trump to get her floor to drop below his ceiling. His only shot would be to tempt the right-leaning Johnson voters to join his camp while simultaneously convincing the left-leaning Johnson voters to stay with Johnson. The smart play would be to correctly identify which camps would rather die than vote for you, to be blunt. No alt-right rural types are voting Clinton, and no minorities are voting Trump. The best plan for both is to drive up their base's turnout, and for Clinton, get as many NeverTrump people to either vote Johnson or vote for her in private.
Trump could technically do the same, but I cannot see how his campaign could ever hope to organize in time to do such political maneuvering. They simply don't have the structure for it. Their strength is in free coverage and the idea that since you're already at rock bottom, nothing hurts you so go all out. If something doesn't work, you're already at your floor, and if it does work, you hope you get enough mileage out of it to matter* in the end.
*And on this note, what constitutes "mattering" in this scenario depends on the two campaign factions I mentioned earlier. A good number of Trump's people don't actually care if he wins (they'd like it, but they also know it isn't happening). They're after the down-ticket and the party's public perception. I don't know if I can recall a campaign where the candidate is being helped by people that probably actively hate him, and honestly would love to see his demise as long as they kept other seats in Congress.
I think so too, but I'm willing to bet Cooper has the largest margin of victory considering he appeals to a certain demographic that the other two don't because he's not a left-wing woman.
eBay Huckster
Member
yeah, I can't remember if someone said it here or in the Discord, but the margin's probably gonna be Cooper >> Clinton >= Ross in that order
IggyChooChoo
Member
How in god's name anyone has the time to keep up with both this thread AND a chat room about this thread is utterly beyond me.
Basileus777
Member
It guarantees a Clinton presidency.
I can see Cooper winning by 8, Clinton by 4-5 and Ross's by >3.
whyamihere
Banned
I said that. Here.
I'd probably shave off a point or two for each but yeah.
eBay Huckster
Member
making a loooooot of assumptions here
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