• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

Status
Not open for further replies.
F

Fragamemnon

Member
It's so gross that Republicans start leaking about Trump's demeanor only when he's getting his butt kicked in the polls. When he was doing OK they didn't seem to have any problems with him being a monster.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
I hope he does well enough in perception that they don't ditch him, but bad enough not to move the needle.

Keep trying to bail out the sinking boat, GOP!
 
S

studyguy

Member
Bowdz said:
I think that's when Sanchez decided to dab mid debate.
Click to expand...

I was out in Hollywood last night, I knew this was going on but I thought you were fucking joking...
la-me-kamala-harris-vs-loretta-sanchez-debate--010
Click to expand...

Whew not a good look at the end of the debate, will have to watch it back a bit later. Moderator was literally like wrapitup.jpg
 
V

Vahagn

Member
thestopsign said:
Is there a strong correlation between bad education systems and Republican run states?

I was talking to a coworker last night and he did the typical Republican spiel about how he didn't think those who had earned more money should be "punished" for it and pay for the lazy ones. He was saying how I hadn't grown up in the south so I hadn't witnessed what it really is like. How is it not clear that you should be investing in education to fix these problems? If your state is under educated, the population probably isn't lazy, it probably is without hope.

The double standard where a lot of southern Republicans talk about how minorities do themselves no favors with how they act and behave compared to how they complain about their own states prosperity while simultaneously kneecapping it is ridiculous.

Sorry for the mini-tangent. Being a liberal in the south is frustrating.
Click to expand...

Conservatives, especially southern conservatives, are trash people.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Suffolk NH, 500 LV

Hillary: 44
Trump: 42
Johnson: 5
Stein: 1

Ayotte: 47
Hassan: 41

Sort of disappointing if true, but also would run counter to a lot of what we're seeing in NH and elsewhere.
 
H

Holmes

Member
whyamihere said:
Emerson is trash af, but this could send some warning signs in AZ for the GOP if they're losing a landline only poll. Someone else needs to poll there.
Click to expand...
Republicans already know if they're losing Arizona or not. The McCain campaign has pollsters, as does the Kirkpatrick and Clinton campaigns. I think at this point it's vulnerable, and a similar performance at Sunday's debate + a good GOTV effort can push it into the Democratic column, same with Georgia.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Eh, the two NH polls from right before the first debate were +6 and +7 Clinton and the two from the week prior were +9 and +4

Not concerned at all about NH. Also Ayotte seems rather high.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
An Indiana poll!!!!

Trump: 43
Hillary: 38
Johnson: 11

Zukkoyaki said:
Eh, the two NH polls from right before the first debate were +6 and +7 Clinton and the two from the week prior were +9 and +4

Not concerned at all about NH. Also Ayotte seems rather high.
Click to expand...

Was more about the Ayotte numbers. That's concerning.
 
N

nature boy

Member
So is Ayotte running ahead of Trump or Hassan underperforming compared to Clinton?

Indiana is not going blue, it's all about the Senate race.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
nature boy said:
So is Ayotte running ahead of Trump or Hassan underperforming compared to Clinton?
Click to expand...

I mean, it's one poll, and the general trend has been both of them fairly neck and neck and running independently of the top of the ticket because they're two of the most well known people in NH not named Shaheen, Lynch, or Sununu.
 
B

BobTheFork

Member
HTupolev said:
This last month before the election isn't about facts, it's about winning.
Click to expand...

I sure haven't felt the previous 3-4 months have been about facts either.

With Newt Shitwich and other basically saying they think feelings and opinions are the real facts, I think we are circling the drain on the last shreds of honest and integrity in reporting and information
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Hassan has to be closer than that. I'm ready for a loss there though. Hilary really needs to put the final nail in that piece of shit this Sunday to start swinging the seats. I want him fuming coming out of this debate.
 
N

newshinycd

Member
Bowdz said:
If only.

I'm expecting Trump to do a better job in the townhall than people are predicting. I think he will be his usual no policy, rambling self, but I think he'll be a little bit more focused with his "I'm change, you've failed" message. Also, watching the veterans townhall, he is actually pretty decent at connecting with people. Granted, the wildcard is how he responds to questions he doesn't like, but I don't think it'll be quite the disaster that the first debate was.

Personally, I'm more nervous about the inevitable question posed to Clinton about her emails or lack of trustworthiness coming from the audience. I can see an audience member ask about it and then not let go like the infamous Bush 92 debt questioner or having the moderators follow up with "Did that answer your question?" and the questioner saying it didn't. Clinton has been flustered in the past when her answers aren't seen as being sufficient. I'm sure she is prepping for every scenario, but it'll be a sphincter clencher when if that question arises in the debate.

I still think the best Clinton strategy is to focus on her policy and her vision for the country and just sprinkle some Trump bait in her answers without seeming overbearing. If she can be seen as presenting a positive vision for the country and as connecting well with the audience while Trump melts down again, it would be the best case scenario.
Click to expand...

I think you might have been watching a Twilight Zone version or something. Because he did pretty bad. It just wasn't first debate bad. The reasons why it wasn't that bad: Matt Lauer was an awful moderator, it was only 30 minutes per candidate, and Hillary wasn't sharing the floor.

This Sunday's townhall will be 90 minutes and both Trump and Hillary will be sharing the floor. Edit: And Anderson Cooper will be the moderator.
And not to seem like an ass, but I loled at the "focused message". Because Trump and focused message is an oxymoron.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
newshinycd said:
I think you might have been watching a Twilight Zone version or something. Because he did pretty bad. It just wasn't first debate bad. The reasons why it wasn't that bad: Matt Lauer was an awful moderator, it was only 30 minutes per candidate, and Hillary wasn't sharing the floor.

This Sunday's townhall will be 90 minutes and both Trump and Hillary will be sharing the floor. Edit: And Anderson Cooper will be the moderator.
And not to seem like an ass, but I loled at the "focused message". Because Trump and focused message is an oxymoron.
Click to expand...

He was talking about the veterans town hall he did the other day. That was still an extremely friendly environment with supporters, though.
 
D

darkstar0155

Member
Captain Pants said:
Seeing this makes me wonder why Indiana is so deep red considering it's neighbors. I know it went blue in 2008, but outside of that, it's solid red. Having never been there, I'd think it'd be similar to Ohio and Iowa in terms of demographics, yet it's not a swing state.
Click to expand...

Indiana is very very rural. Its almost all farm country. I think the biggest industry they have there anymore is the RV factory's in Elkhorn. Gary in the NE of the state is a wasteland anymore. It physically makes me nauseous driving by that town. Its just a bunch of oil refineries and it literally stinks when you drive by it on the highway.

Ohio still has a lot of industry in the northern part of the state. Plus it has a large medical corridor along route 77 from the akron area up to Cleveland where the world renowned Cleveland Clinic is. Plus the metropolitan areas of Columbus, Canton/Akron, and Cleveland. On top of that there are a bunch of good universities in Ohio. Univ. of Akron, Kent State, Ohio State, Cleveland State, etc etc.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
newshinycd said:
I think you might have been watching a Twilight Zone version or something. Because he did pretty bad. It just wasn't first debate bad. The reasons why it wasn't that bad: Matt Lauer was an awful moderator, it was only 30 minutes per candidate, and Hillary wasn't sharing the floor.

This Sunday's townhall will be 90 minutes and both Trump and Hillary will be sharing the floor. Edit: And Anderson Cooper will be the moderator.
And not to seem like an ass, but I loled at the "focused message". Because Trump and focused message is an oxymoron.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I should have been clearer. I meant his veterans Q&A this week where the whole PTSD issue came up. His Matt Lauer townhall was certainly shit tier and if he tries that at the debate, he's done.

I agree that his message is bullshit and can be refuted a million times over, but in the eyes of the pseudo debate graders, it is enough to count as a "win" (per nearly every pundit claiming Trump won, or did very well, during the first 20min of the last debate because of that message).
 
R

RustyNails

Member
whyamihere said:
Suffolk NH, 500 LV

Hillary: 44
Trump: 42
Johnson: 5
Stein: 1

Ayotte: 47
Hassan: 41

Sort of disappointing if true, but also would run counter to a lot of what we're seeing in NH and elsewhere.
Click to expand...
Reminder on Suffolk from 2012

Pollster pulls out of Fla., NC and Va., says Obama can’t win there
“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s "The O’Reilly Factor." “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”
Click to expand...
Fox News anchor Bill O’Reilly seemed perplexed, and asked Paleologos if he was certain those three states were already in the bag for Romney.

“That’s right, and here’s why. Before the debate, the Suffolk poll had Obama ahead 46 to 43 [in Florida] in the head-to-head number,” Paleologos responded.
“A poor place to be for a couple of reasons. Number one, his ballot test, his head-to-head number was below 47 percent before the debate, and it’s very, very difficult when you have the known quantity, the incumbent, to claw your way up to 50. So that was a very, very poor place for him to be.

“So we’re looking at this polling data not only in Florida but in Virginia and North Carolina and it’s overwhelming,” Paleologos concluded.
Click to expand...
 
N

nature boy

Member
whyamihere said:
I mean, it's one poll, and the general trend has been both of them fairly neck and neck and running independently of the top of the ticket because they're two of the most well known people in NH not named Shaheen, Lynch, or Sununu.
Click to expand...

Well there's a lack of consistency in the polls in contrast to FL, so I'm wondering if the polling is shit or are we seeing something (not following the race, outside of role-model-gate) the start of a consistent lead of one of them.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Pixieking said:
We all need more Clive Owen, no matter where we are.




Something I've not read about (no-one seems to have written it?) is what happens when this happens and the foreigners stop coming, but the UK-born doctors/dentists/teachers realise that they don't want to live in such an awful country, and can get better work/pay/conditions elsewhere. Lack of immigrants + emigration of British nationals = a country in the gutter.
Click to expand...

You get Mississippi. We've got huge problems with emigration and poor conditions scaring people away.

thestopsign said:
Is there a strong correlation between bad education systems and Republican run states?

I was talking to a coworker last night and he did the typical Republican spiel about how he didn't think those who had earned more money should be "punished" for it and pay for the lazy ones. He was saying how I hadn't grown up in the south so I hadn't witnessed what it really is like. How is it not clear that you should be investing in education to fix these problems? If your state is under educated, the population probably isn't lazy, it probably is without hope.

The double standard where a lot of southern Republicans talk about how minorities do themselves no favors with how they act and behave compared to how they complain about their own states prosperity while simultaneously kneecapping it is ridiculous.

Sorry for the mini-tangent. Being a liberal in the south is frustrating.
Click to expand...

People here don't value education at all. My high school had a field trip every year to the local plants so we could all see where we'd end up working. No one ever thought it was weird that we were expected to work for shit pay and long hours until we died. Of my graduating class in high school, only 4 of us went to college. That was typical.

Once you hit 18 here, you'd better be able to pay your own way. And that frequently means no time for college (of any kind).
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
nature boy said:
Well there's a lack of consistency in the polls in contrast to FL, so I'm wondering if the polling is shit or are we seeing something (not following the race, outside of role-model-gate) the start of a consistent lead of one of them.
Click to expand...

They've been neck and neck all year. My guess is they probably a Republican sample since this result would not jive at all with anything we're seeing anywhere else and what we know about New Hampshire.
 
J

Jeels

Member
Manmademan said:
Republicans also tend to cling to the theory that public education doesn't work and the private sector does a better job of education, despite all of the evidence showing the opposite. This leads them to push things like school voucher programs and charter school programs, which will absolutely wreck a public school system faster than anything else.
Click to expand...

Not arguing, genuinely interested, because I have been on both sides of the debate and haven't really been able to back it up with actual data - receipts?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
D

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
As if the stakes couldn't get any higher....

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/paul-ryan-budget-congress-229216


If Donald Trump is elected president and Republicans hold onto Congress, House Speaker Paul Ryan is bluntly promising to ram a partisan agenda through Capitol Hill next year, with Obamacare repeal and trillion-dollar tax cuts likely at the top of the list. And Democrats would be utterly defenseless to stop them
Click to expand...

Go fuck yourself Ryan
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Here's a hot take: the debates really don't matter. But they're a marker for lots of people who've been saying they're undecided or going to vote third party or other dumb stuff to start wising up and taking the election actually seriously, which causes a big apparent swing in public polling after the first debate that mostly doesn't change much after that.

Private polling uses voter files and likelihood calculation, so they understand undecided/third-party voters as low-likelihood voters for particular parties rather than the lower-information "undecided." That's why the parties often act before the debates as if they already know what the race will look like after the debates -- they actually do. What looks like a jump in support for Clinton is actually just a bunch of 50% likely voters (who fall out of a public poll screen) splitting into definite voters and "probably not" voters. The private polls already have more gradation and have worked this happening into their model in advance.

This is why Obama knew the race was close all through 2012, while public polls only knew after the first debate, and that's why Hillary has been playing confident all through 2016 even when the polls slipped temporarily, while the GOP has been leaking "Trump totally fucked" articles basically every week.

You can also see this in the polling aggregates -- Trump closed the gap originally because undecideds and third-party voters started dropping and Trump gained most of them. This meant that the remaining undecideds were mostly disaffected Hillary supporters. After the first debate, they're starting to declare themselves, and Hillary has a commanding lead as a result. There is probably no reason to expect that to change before the election.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Manmademan said:
best analogy of poligaf I've seen yet.
Click to expand...

Agreed. If 538 is shit for being too reactive (it is), then we shouldn't do the same. Consistency is the name of the game.

Edit:mad:ThePidge
Agreed. I think a big piece of evidence of this is Trump's clear ceiling versus Hillary's floor. When he gets a bump, he can't break 45,and when she slumps, she never drops below 45. Regardless of Trump's support, if Hillary is higher than her floor, she's comfortably ahead, and she's definitely doing better than her floor.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Show us your gaming setup: 2024 Edition
2 3 4 5
230
40K
elbourreau replied
  • Locked
Show us your gaming setup: 2023 Edition | 20th anniversary thread
2 3 4 5 6
268
58K
DGrayson replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
Top Bottom