tedrotheredro
Member
It's the funniest part. Giant TRUMP PENCE signs behind him, but he still can't say to vote for Trump. I half expected him to say "vote your conscience".
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic
- Thread starter Bronx-Man
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It's the funniest part. Giant TRUMP PENCE signs behind him, but he still can't say to vote for Trump. I half expected him to say "vote your conscience".
Haha the despair is palpable.
whyamihere
Banned
Emerson is trash af, but this could send some warning signs in AZ for the GOP if they're losing a landline only poll. Someone else needs to poll there.
Randolph Freelander
Member
I want a Reagan/Mondale election night result.
RustyNails
Member
Cohn showing why he's the superior Nate
Not saying this because he's calling out Trump friendly polls, but because he's willing to admit when a bad poll is a bad poll unlike the other Nate who lets Landline only garbage polls carry significant weight in his model. Also relied heavily on them for the sake of screaming "DEAD-HEAT!!!" A few weeks ago.
Not saying this because he's calling out Trump friendly polls, but because he's willing to admit when a bad poll is a bad poll unlike the other Nate who lets Landline only garbage polls carry significant weight in his model. Also relied heavily on them for the sake of screaming "DEAD-HEAT!!!" A few weeks ago.
man i'd love to open that 2024 time portal this year.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Texas being that close should send the fear of god through the GOP
But it probably won't
But it probably won't
RustyNails
Member
Emerson polls are landline only garbage with spotty screening. Listen to best Nate.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Interesting because polls show she has a comfortable lead. Probably trying to make sure there are no surprises like the primary.
Cruz could have been a threat in 2020 - but i think that'll be deferred
I also don't think Pence looked that great at the debate and his 2020 chances are overplayed.
Jeb flamed out to the extent that I think he is done.
Kasich is looking like the biggest threat if he can sway his base
I also don't think Pence looked that great at the debate and his 2020 chances are overplayed.
Jeb flamed out to the extent that I think he is done.
Kasich is looking like the biggest threat if he can sway his base
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
It can't be overstated how the Hurricane is going to bury Trump on Sunday.
My first results on "Trump Climate Change" on Google:
Trump flatly denied that, even though he has called climate change a "hoax" repeatedly in the past. In a tweet from 2012, for example, Trump said that the "concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."
Clinton will absolutely demolish him on this. With the extent of the horribleness of this storm, and this being in a Town Hall Format, he's not coming out of this.
My first results on "Trump Climate Change" on Google:
Trump flatly denied that, even though he has called climate change a "hoax" repeatedly in the past. In a tweet from 2012, for example, Trump said that the "concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."
Clinton will absolutely demolish him on this. With the extent of the horribleness of this storm, and this being in a Town Hall Format, he's not coming out of this.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Man, I just caught up on the week's news in the UK, where apparently Theresa May finally got around to seeing Children of Men and thought, "That! That's more of what we need around here!"
Who actually tries to register foreign-born school students? Like, in real life? I can't believe that England is going to end up as a backward second-world country in my lifetime.
Who actually tries to register foreign-born school students? Like, in real life? I can't believe that England is going to end up as a backward second-world country in my lifetime.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Funville tiers:
3. Sweating Republicans
2. Look at all the blue over here
1. Election night ends at 8:30pm est
I wish.
I'd even take a Clinton '96 result, where we win a stretch state or two..
That was a fun night. So. Much. Salt.
If only.
I'm expecting Trump to do a better job in the townhall than people are predicting. I think he will be his usual no policy, rambling self, but I think he'll be a little bit more focused with his "I'm change, you've failed" message. Also, watching the veterans townhall, he is actually pretty decent at connecting with people. Granted, the wildcard is how he responds to questions he doesn't like, but I don't think it'll be quite the disaster that the first debate was.
Personally, I'm more nervous about the inevitable question posed to Clinton about her emails or lack of trustworthiness coming from the audience. I can see an audience member ask about it and then not let go like the infamous Bush 92 debt questioner or having the moderators follow up with "Did that answer your question?" and the questioner saying it didn't. Clinton has been flustered in the past when her answers aren't seen as being sufficient. I'm sure she is prepping for every scenario, but it'll be a sphincter clencher when if that question arises in the debate.
I still think the best Clinton strategy is to focus on her policy and her vision for the country and just sprinkle some Trump bait in her answers without seeming overbearing. If she can be seen as presenting a positive vision for the country and as connecting well with the audience while Trump melts down again, it would be the best case scenario.
Fragamemnon
Member
Everyone likes to dogpile on Rass but it's always fun to watch them magically fix the poll in the last two weeks or so of the campaign. Nowadays the models are smart enough to see through it, but back when it was 2004-2008 we still looked at "who got it right in the end" as the standard for quality polling.
Those FL numbers reinforce the idea of a 3-4 point lead in FL. Trump's in giant trouble there.
Those FL numbers reinforce the idea of a 3-4 point lead in FL. Trump's in giant trouble there.
Finale Fireworker
Member
I wish.
I'd even take a Clinton '96 result, where we win a stretch state or two..
That was a fun night. So. Much. Salt.
Wow. I've never seen this map before. I wonder if I'll ever see a map like this again.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
Polling Florida now, before a massive hurricane, with Trump's comments on climate change, seems a little pointless. He will now lose that state by double digits.
BronzeWolf
Banned
As long as HRC doesn't lose 2nd debate spectacularly, 3rd debate is just not that important. Too many people will have already made their minds about the election. If Drumps has nothing interesting on HRC beyond his talking points (The emails that Benny Ghazi sent to the Clinton Foundation with Monica Lewinsky's Noods), then he has no hope. I doubt he has anything.
On the other hand, if Drumps thinks Hurriacen Matthew will hurt HRC, he is as wrong as he can be. Natural disasters join people and benefit the popularity of the president. Obama'sm getting a likability boost, and that can only help HRC. It also gives credibility to HRC's global weather change platform that she has been championing since day 1.
Given the correct actions post-hurricane, some neighboring FL states could lean further Dem.
On the other hand, if Drumps thinks Hurriacen Matthew will hurt HRC, he is as wrong as he can be. Natural disasters join people and benefit the popularity of the president. Obama'sm getting a likability boost, and that can only help HRC. It also gives credibility to HRC's global weather change platform that she has been championing since day 1.
Given the correct actions post-hurricane, some neighboring FL states could lean further Dem.
I wish.
I'd even take a Clinton '96 result, where we win a stretch state or two..
That was a fun night. So. Much. Salt.
Out of all of those I think WV is the most surprising. What exactly happened?
balladofwindfishes
Member
How is Obama handling the hurricane so far? Haven't really been paying attention all that much.
rokkerkory
Member
Rift between Fox News anchors: Kelly vs Hannity
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/05/media/megyn-kelly-sean-hannity/index.html
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/05/media/megyn-kelly-sean-hannity/index.html
Saw a new Trump ad today on TV. It stars Ivanka and talking about Trump and women
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZzyDUW3cqU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZzyDUW3cqU
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
He spoke on it the other day.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/president-...-matthew-devastating-effect/story?id=42589589
I wish.
I'd even take a Clinton '96 result, where we win a stretch state or two..
That was a fun night. So. Much. Salt.
God I wish Tennessee would go blue again sometime soon. But then I'm reminded that we fucking had Santorum win our primary in 2012, so we're screwed.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
"Ivanka, it's time for bed. Tell me how I successful I am."
We all need more Clive Owen, no matter where we are.
Something I've not read about (no-one seems to have written it?) is what happens when this happens and the foreigners stop coming, but the UK-born doctors/dentists/teachers realise that they don't want to live in such an awful country, and can get better work/pay/conditions elsewhere. Lack of immigrants + emigration of British nationals = a country in the gutter.
Chris Cillizza.
I honestly can't think of a pundit who provides less insight, or whose observations are more banal. I can't believe he actually gets paid for what he does.
I honestly can't think of a pundit who provides less insight, or whose observations are more banal. I can't believe he actually gets paid for what he does.
BronzeWolf
Banned
"This is where I release my fabulous twits"
RustyNails
Member
Atlantic
WV is also bottom of the education ladder and a lack of diversity.
BronzeWolf
Banned
The subtleties of English sometimes escape me... but is it not somewhat offensive to say "Family of Blacks" instead of "Black families?"
It's really disheartening being a Dem in Tennessee these days. The party is a punching bag.
CitizenVectron
Member
Well they also mean 2 totally different things. Family of Blacks means a single family, while Black Families means all families of blacks.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
WV was pretty reliably blue because of how important unions are, I think it was a Carter '80 state and I know it was a Dukakis '88 state. It jumped ship after the Democrats became anti-coal and since Gore was the first candidate to really be against that, he was the first to lose them outside of a landslide.
Manmademan
Member
That's not entirely accurate.
The south at one time was absolutely full of "democrats" that were leftovers from the realignment that happened around the civil rights act of 65.
These were all rural white people that would absolutely NEVER vote for a republican for any reason whatsoever, because their daddy was a democrat and HIS daddy was a democrat and HIS daddy was a democrat because Abe Lincoln was a republican that freed slaves and started the "war of northen agression."
Carter's map in 1976 looked like this for that reason:
Reagan destroying all comers in 1980 and 1984 tended to obscure this fact, as did Bush dominating Dukakis in 88.
1992 and 1996 were simply regressions to the default, where southern voters clicked the D button in the absence of anyone as charismatic as Reagan (or his immediate protege) on the republican ballot. Clinton being a southern governor also didn't hurt.
These people generally don't pay attention to politics beyond party labels, but over the decades they slowly began to come around and vote republican consistently, even if they never actually changed their registration from D to R.
thestopsign
Member
Is there a strong correlation between bad education systems and Republican run states?
I was talking to a coworker last night and he did the typical Republican spiel about how he didn't think those who had earned more money should be "punished" for it and pay for the lazy ones. He was saying how I hadn't grown up in the south so I hadn't witnessed what it really is like. How is it not clear that you should be investing in education to fix these problems? If your state is under educated, the population probably isn't lazy, it probably is without hope.
The double standard where a lot of southern Republicans talk about how minorities do themselves no favors with how they act and behave compared to how they complain about their own states prosperity while simultaneously kneecapping it is ridiculous.
Sorry for the mini-tangent. Being a liberal in the south is frustrating.
I was talking to a coworker last night and he did the typical Republican spiel about how he didn't think those who had earned more money should be "punished" for it and pay for the lazy ones. He was saying how I hadn't grown up in the south so I hadn't witnessed what it really is like. How is it not clear that you should be investing in education to fix these problems? If your state is under educated, the population probably isn't lazy, it probably is without hope.
The double standard where a lot of southern Republicans talk about how minorities do themselves no favors with how they act and behave compared to how they complain about their own states prosperity while simultaneously kneecapping it is ridiculous.
Sorry for the mini-tangent. Being a liberal in the south is frustrating.
New national poll (PRRI/Atlantic, 9/28-10/2)
Clinton 47
Trump 41
Johnson 3
http://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/PRRI-Atlantic-Survey-Topline.pdf
Clinton 47
Trump 41
Johnson 3
http://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/PRRI-Atlantic-Survey-Topline.pdf
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Good Paul Ryan. Shackle yourself to Trump.
nature boy
Member
FUCK DAT DEBATE PREP
It may not be this area but I do know there's a notoriously conservative and pretty decently populated county in southeastern Wisconsin that legit votes like 85% republican that hasn't warmed up much to Trump. I wonder if this is where they're going.
electricpirate
Member
Hey I stayed there when I got lost driving cross country!
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I wish.
I'd even take a Clinton '96 result, where we win a stretch state or two..
That was a fun night. So. Much. Salt.
Seeing this makes me wonder why Indiana is so deep red considering it's neighbors. I know it went blue in 2008, but outside of that, it's solid red. Having never been there, I'd think it'd be similar to Ohio and Iowa in terms of demographics, yet it's not a swing state.
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