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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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shiba5

Member
Two things:

1) Murphy is landing a few blows against Rubio. I don't know that it makes a difference, but he has landed a few solid hits. He just hit him really, really good over LGBT issues and immigration issues.

2) Hillary would have worn Rubio's skin as a suit for fashion week.

Can't he just throw water on him?
 

Iolo

Member
I just wonder if Chris Wallace will allow Trump to talk over her every time she talks. Zingers worked for him in the 2nd debate and most of that came from butting in during her answer.

Hmm? The moderators did a pretty good job in the second debate. Cooper even said "she didn't interrupt you while you were talking" and they called him out when he was rambling. You can't police every interjection. The only thing more they can do is cut off the mike if someone won't shut up.
 
Keep in mind if we won the House and not the Senate, we could pass legislation in the House sure, but everything would stall in the Senate. Win the Senate and not the House, and while legislation still stalls, we get judicial appointments and can authorize treaties.

If you have to go with one over the other, Senate is more important.
 

User1608

Banned
I'm watching CNN, truly is scary how delusional and disgusting most of these Trump supporters are. I mean we know that but it's always something to hear them speak their paranoid little minds.
 

Measley

Junior Member
Just to recap the national polls that were released the past couple of days.

CBSNews - Clinton +9
NBC/WSJ - Clinton +11
ABC/WaPo - Clinton +4
Monmouth University - Clinton +12
George Washington University - Clinton +8

Amazingly the media is focusing on the ABC/WaPo poll.

Gee, I wonder why......
 
Keep in mind if we won the House and not the Senate, we could pass legislation in the House sure, but everything would stall in the Senate. Win the Senate and not the House, and while legislation still stalls, we get judicial appointments and can authorize treaties.

If you have to go with one over the other, Senate is more important.

this is impossible. any situation where we end up winning by a large enough margin to take the house, we easily have the senate.

besides, you've overlooked something important. All of the budget bills have to originate in the house- that's not a small matter at all.

in addition, the senate is typically more open to negotiation and political dealing than the house is, since senators have to appeal to the entire state and not just their gerrymandered section of it.
 

GutsOfThor

Member
My dad just saw the whole quid pro quo thing as the lead story on CBS evening news.....


Looks like she'll have some 'splainin to do Wednesday.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Would a public option be helpful or would the Obamacare Exchanges just end up being only a public option due to private health insurers leaving?

The original cost control measure and public option compromise was the non-profit health insurers on the market.
The initial plan was to partially subsidize these insurers with medicare money until they were solvent, and phase out this extra funding over time. Marco Rubio attached a small amendment to a financing bill, killing this option right as insurers were expecting it for their fiscal year. Driving the majority of these non-profit solutions into bankruptcy and off the exchange.

There were no explicit cost controls built into the affordable care act, costs were skyrocketing prior to the ACA being passed, and continued to skyrocket afterwards.
 

royalan

Member
I had a really good convo with a coworker today. It's surprising that the GOP doesn't seem to be preparing for what's so obviously to come.

When Trump loses, does the GOP think he and his alt-right minions are going to sulk off to their own little corner? Heck no. Trump's ego won't let him. Do they think the alt-right will focus on attacking Dems? Of course not. We're too opposed ideologically; the alt-right won't get support from our side.

But the alt-right can further infiltrate and take over the GOP.

And we know that Bannon has been gunning for Ryan since before he got involved in this campaign.

I think on Nov 9th we're going to see an all out assault on establishment Republicans by the alt-right. It's amazing that establishment Republicans think that any amount of appeasement will spare them from this.
 

Diablos

Member
Keep in mind if we won the House and not the Senate, we could pass legislation in the House sure, but everything would stall in the Senate. Win the Senate and not the House, and while legislation still stalls, we get judicial appointments and can authorize treaties.

If you have to go with one over the other, Senate is more important.
I want both.

But if it can't be, then yes, Senate please.

Swear to god if Murphy fucks this up
 

Slayven

Member
I had a really good convo with a coworker today. It's surprising that the GOP doesn't seem to be preparing for what's sy obviously to come.

When Trump loses, does the GOP think he and his alt-right minions are going to sulk off to their own little corner? Heck no. Trump's ego won't let him. Do they think the alt-right will focus on attacking Dems? Of course not. We're too opposed ideologically; the alt-right won't get support from our side.

But the alt-right can further infiltrate and take over the GOP.

And we know that Bannon has been gunning for Ryan since before he got involved in this campaign.

I think on Nov 9th we're going to see all our assault on establishment Republicans by the alt-right. It's amazing that establishment Republicans think that any amount of appeasement will spare them from this.

I don't know how to feel about that. I love seeing the GOP's bullshit coming home to roost. But at the same time shit is going to get ugly before it gets better and the alt right might actually gain some political power
 
I had a really good convo with a coworker today. It's surprising that the GOP doesn't seem to be preparing for what's sy obviously to come.

When Trump loses, does the GOP think he and his alt-right minions are going to sulk off to their own little corner? Heck no. Trump's ego won't let him. Do they think the alt-right will focus on attacking Dems? Of course not. We're too opposed ideologically; the alt-right won't get support from our side.

But the alt-right can further infiltrate and take over the GOP.

And we know that Bannon has been gunning for Ryan since before he got involved in this campaign.

I think on Nov 9th we're going to see all our assault on establishment Republicans by the alt-right. It's amazing that establishment Republicans think that any amount of appeasement will spare them from this.

What I find interesting is if the Republican party splits between an alt right party and a moderate one, I think the moderate will survive in the long term, but if that is the case then wouldn't the alt right voters just join the moderate party too? How long before they take it over again or will they lose most of their influence?

I guess it depends on the moderate party appealing to conservative/centrist/ moderate Democrats.
 
Trump says that "iPhones disappeared" "and were whacked with hammers"? Um. Never mind the fact that that sentence doesn't follow, but smashing a phone wouldn't even clear the data on it.

Is this part of the FBI/DOJ thing from today? Because I hadn't heard this.

The audio mix on the live stream is awful, but it lets you hear all the random vulgar stuff the crowd shouts out.
 
I was hooked on CNN for a while but the whole song and dance with the Trump surrogates got old pretty quickly. It became way too predictable. I think I speak for a lot of people when I say lets just get this election over with already.
 
this is impossible. any situation where we end up winning by a large enough margin to take the house, we easily have the senate.

besides, you've overlooked something important. All of the budget bills have to originate in the house- that's not a small matter at all.

in addition, the senate is typically more open to negotiation and political dealing than the house is, since senators have to appeal to the entire state and not just their gerrymandered section of it.
I know we'd almost definitely win the Senate if we won the House, I'm just saying if you had to pick one or the other.

That's true that the Senate is generally more deliberative historically but the key word is historically. McConnell and his ilk aren't going anywhere anytime soon and they've proven to be just as shitty as their House counterparts.
 

VRMN

Member
Trump says that "iPhones disappeared" "and were whacked with hammers"? Um. Never mind the fact that that sentence doesn't follow, but smashing a phone wouldn't even clear the data on it.

Is this part of the FBI/DOJ thing from today? Because I hadn't heard this.

The audio mix on the live stream is awful, but it lets you hear all the random vulgar stuff the crowd shouts out.
The phones being destroyed thing is old, but it's actual standard protocol to destroy those devices when you're done with them. Classified information and all. There's been a lot of standard policies being made out to be sinister deviations in this campaign.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Wow the Young Turks coverage of the Clinton Emails is analogous to InfoWars. Zero evidence presented, all opinion, making mountains out of molehills, and really just making a snap reaction without further research.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CLfYMALEFY

Trump says that "iPhones disappeared" "and were whacked with hammers"? Um. Never mind the fact that that sentence doesn't follow, but smashing a phone wouldn't even clear the data on it.

Is this part of the FBI/DOJ thing from today? Because I hadn't heard this.

The audio mix on the live stream is awful, but it lets you hear all the random vulgar stuff the crowd shouts out.

Destroying their phones after they've been wiped is actually standard operating procedure with classified information.
 

Cyanity

Banned
Trump says that "iPhones disappeared" "and were whacked with hammers"? Um. Never mind the fact that that sentence doesn't follow, but smashing a phone wouldn't even clear the data on it.

Is this part of the FBI/DOJ thing from today? Because I hadn't heard this.

The audio mix on the live stream is awful, but it lets you hear all the random vulgar stuff the crowd shouts out.

He's been making shit up ever since the email story dropped.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Wow the Young Turks coverage of the Clinton Emails is analogous to InfoWars. Zero evidence presented, all opinion, making mountains out of molehills, and really just making a snap reaction without further research.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CLfYMALEFY



Destroying their phones after they've been wiped is actually standard operating procedure with classified information.

These faux progressives really need to go away after this election. They are showing their true colors about not really caring about the Democratic party and only wanting people who will give them what they want.
 
I don't know how to feel about that. I love seeing the GOP's bullshit coming home to roost. But at the same time shit is going to get ugly before it gets better and the alt right might actually gain some political power

They already have power. The Majority Whip, Scalise, once reportedly referred to himself as, "David Duke without the baggage." Tell me Sessions, King and Gohmert aren't already singing from the deplorable's hymnal.

What will happen as they trash the dog-whistle for a klaxon, is to scare White suburban women away. Once the plurality of the party descends into successive bouts of purity-fueled Klown Kar Kannibalism, the realignment will be complete, and some new party will swoop in to split the base.
 
I had a really good convo with a coworker today. It's surprising that the GOP doesn't seem to be preparing for what's so obviously to come.

When Trump loses, does the GOP think he and his alt-right minions are going to sulk off to their own little corner? Heck no. Trump's ego won't let him. Do they think the alt-right will focus on attacking Dems? Of course not. We're too opposed ideologically; the alt-right won't get support from our side.

But the alt-right can further infiltrate and take over the GOP.

And we know that Bannon has been gunning for Ryan since before he got involved in this campaign.

I think on Nov 9th we're going to see an all out assault on establishment Republicans by the alt-right. It's amazing that establishment Republicans think that any amount of appeasement will spare them from this.

Far left (I'm talking Assange/Greenwald/Intercept folks) are gonna collapse into the alt-right giving us our long sought after third party of memes, 4chan, and nihilism who will want to blow up the system at any cost.
 
Wow the Young Turks coverage of the Clinton Emails is analogous to InfoWars. Zero evidence presented, all opinion, making mountains out of molehills, and really just making a snap reaction without further research.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CLfYMALEFY



Destroying their phones after they've been wiped is actually standard operating procedure with classified information.

The problem is that the far left is going to revolt every time they don't get the candidate they want. Clinton is the last even remotely moderate person the Dems will nominate in my opinion.
 

Revolver

Member
Really like the voter fraud discussion on CNN.

NBC Nightly News talked about voter fraud during their opening piece tonight citing the Loyola Law School study that shows only 31 incidents of voter fraud out of 1 billion votes cast. Naturally a Trump supporter said she believes there's large scale voter fraud "absolutely" "positively".
 

shiba5

Member
The phones being destroyed thing is old, but it's actual standard protocol to destroy those devices when you're done with them. Classified information and all. There's been a lot of standard policies being made out to be sinister deviations in this campaign.

I don't know about phones, but hard drives are put into a machine with a big magnet and then destroyed. Ours went through an industrial shredder.
 
Nate Silver basically wrote an article claiming the 538 is pretty close to maxing out on Hillary's chances.

My guess is there is around 3% for Black Swan and 3 weeks of uncertainty taking up the rest of the difference.

In other words, even if Hillary is up 10 points, she won't get to the 95% mark until the final week due to the nature of the model (this is not criticism, I'm fine with this).

Interesting that she is near the model's edge.
 
Trump: There's an "undercurrent" that "they" can't register in the polls, so they're totally winning, don't worry.

"CNN sucks" chant, as Trump's wife is about to be in an exclusive interview on CNN.
The phones being destroyed thing is old, but it's actual standard protocol to destroy those devices when you're done with them. Classified information and all. There's been a lot of standard policies being made out to be sinister deviations in this campaign.
Aah. Well, from a covert perspective it sounds normal enough.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LANSING, MI -- Michigan Republican Party Grassroots Vice Chair Wendy Day was removed from her office on Monday after voicing opposition to Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump.

Day, who had served as state director of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz's Michigan campaign, said she would not endorse Trump's candidacy, and a member of the Republican State Committee launched a formal complaint.

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/10/michigan_gop_vice-chair_ousted.html#incart_river_home
 

Ecotic

Member
I think Trump sticks around in a major way. There will be endless tweeting and interviews for sure. Maybe he even sabotages the 2020 primaries by running again, attacking the party relentlessly, or by trying to push a chosen candidate.
 

Crocodile

Member
I had a really good convo with a coworker today. It's surprising that the GOP doesn't seem to be preparing for what's so obviously to come.

When Trump loses, does the GOP think he and his alt-right minions are going to sulk off to their own little corner? Heck no. Trump's ego won't let him. Do they think the alt-right will focus on attacking Dems? Of course not. We're too opposed ideologically; the alt-right won't get support from our side.

But the alt-right can further infiltrate and take over the GOP.

And we know that Bannon has been gunning for Ryan since before he got involved in this campaign.

I think on Nov 9th we're going to see an all out assault on establishment Republicans by the alt-right. It's amazing that establishment Republicans think that any amount of appeasement will spare them from this.

I dunno, barely any establishment politicians on either side were primaried this year. I'm not sure if they will get their act together like the Tea Party did to start knocking heads and we still have no idea what Trump does after the election.

Maybe that's for the best? I dunno.
 
If Murphy loses we have to win IN and NV right?
We know OH is a lost cause

Right now its:

Keep: Nevada

Likely pickup: Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania

That puts the Dems at 49 so they need one of NH, NC, or MO. Florida is the long-shot if GOP voters just stay home on election day.
 
Nate Silver basically wrote an article claiming the 538 is pretty close to maxing out on Hillary's chances.

My guess is there is around 3% for Black Swan and 3 weeks of uncertainty taking up the rest of the difference.

In other words, even if Hillary is up 10 points, she won't get to the 95% mark until the final week due to the nature of the model (this is not criticism, I'm fine with this).

Interesting that she is near the model's edge.

well it makes sense. Trying to describe a scenario where Trump can actually win, given the circumstances as they are right now is either an exercise in hilariously terrible fan fiction where sex tapes of hillary clinton and kim jong un are found, or a scenario where every single poll model except the one by LA times is just disastrously wrong.

the odds of either of these two things happening can't be very high at all.
 
I'm not convinced that any more oppo is going to make any difference. Sam Wang has pointed out that the Billy bus tape didn't actually change anything, it was all about the first debate.

Gb66y9Q.jpg
 
The problem is that the far left is going to revolt every time they don't get the candidate they want. Clinton is the last even remotely moderate person the Dems will nominate in my opinion.

Good thing the far left is mostly just full of people who want to complain! Because, I hate to break this to people, this is not a far left country. Period. Full stop. Candidates in the future will be as quote unquote moderate as Hillary is, because that's where the electorate is.

The main difference between the far left and the far right is that the right actually votes!
 

Diablos

Member
Right now its:

Keep: Nevada

Likely pickup: Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania

That puts the Dems at 49 so they need one of NH, NC, or MO. Florida is the long-shot if GOP voters just stay home on election day.
Fuck that's tight. We have no margin for error thanks to Strickland completely shitting the bed and Murphy being a lame candidate. Arghhhhhhhhhhh
 
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