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[TheLostBigBoss]

God damnit. You motherfuckers can't give a straight fucking answer.

Plenty of people already said no

 

[Manmademan]

Why does Nate Silver think betting markets are a source of relevant information?

Nate Silver is a libertarian, with all the batshit insane "markets decide" nonsense that comes with that ideology.

The online betting pools are just another market to him. doesn't occur that markets might be highly flawed or easily manipulated, because why would it?

 

[mo60]

I'm not that bullish on NC or FL's margin, but I'm starting to become more confident in a wider victory than 12.

Her victory margin is going to be around 08 levels but electoral votes probably won't.

 

[Good Job Bob]

God damnit. You motherfuckers can't give a straight fucking answer.

Edit: just found the CNN article they were referencing. Looks like the race has tightened significantly.

She leads the polls in every state she needs for 270.

 

[whyamihere]

My final margins:

UT: -5 (Trump win)
IA: -4
GA: -3
AZ: -.5
OH: +.5
NE-2: +1
NH: +2
ME-2: +2
NC: +3
FL: +3.5
WI: +6
MI: +6
PA: +6
CO: +7
MN: +8
VA: +8

 

[eBay Huckster]

This is a guess or some real numbers?

Guess.

Though it's based on polls in OH - namely the Dispatch poll (and adding a point or two for GOTV because we're pushing 2012 EV numbers), Upshot modeling in NC, hope with a bit of demographic modeling in FL, and basically guessing that PA's between '08 and '12.

 

[User 463088]

Hillary-53
Trump-31
Johnson-11

Only been wrong once (2004).

 

[Man God]

Hillary has...oh my Man God...zero electoral votes. Trump is going to win.

 

[Plinko]

Michael McDonald
Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject
Last week I said Comey letter had no election effect (as measured by #earlyvote). I will say again now it is revealed a big #nothingburger

Hmm.

 

[nature boy]

FUCKIN MARK BURNETT

 

[BronzeWolf]

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/795395127321755650

"I am going to look at you very bad"

Nobody will care idiot, fucker

 

[Manmademan]

How do we fix the news media? I'm more convinced than ever that privatized news media is fundamentally, structurally broken: pursuit of maximized profit is incompatible with good journalistic coverage. But "state run" of course raises all kinds of warning signs. Who do we entrust with the news?

Your local public media outlets are usually fine. nonprofit, but not government run.
This is where a lot of my daily news intake comes from.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Hillary-53
Trump-31
Johnson-11

Only been wrong once (2004).

I fucking love that photograph of her.

 

[Already Torn]

God damnit. You motherfuckers can't give a straight fucking answer.

Edit: just found the CNN article they were referencing. Looks like the race has tightened significantly.

Nah. She's leading in pretty much all swing states except for Iowa and is leading by more than a few points nationally as well.

 

[StopMakingSense]

My final margins:
.

No TX?

 

[mo60]

My final margins:

UT: -5 (Trump win)
IA: -4
GA: -3
AZ: -.5
OH: +.5
NE-2: +1
NH: +2
ME-2: +2
NC: +3
FL: +3.5
WI: +6
MI: +6
PA: +6
CO: +7
MN: +8
VA: +8

I'm thinking hilary wins AZ by around 1% if she does win it.

 

[Y2Kev]

This is interesting. NC NPA voters are like all young people from cities.

 

[The Technomancer]

Your local public media outlets are usually fine. nonprofit, but not government run.
This is where a lot of my daily news intake comes from.

Sure, but they're not particularly what people are looking at. How do we break the death grip the major networks have?

 

[Grym]

Hillary-53
Trump-31
Johnson-11

Only been wrong once (2004).

Well there goes Trump's chances at being class president in MN

 

[Basileus777]

My final margins:

UT: -5 (Trump win)
IA: -4
GA: -3
AZ: -.5
OH: +.5
NE-2: +1
NH: +2
ME-2: +2
NC: +3
FL: +3.5
WI: +6
MI: +6
PA: +6
CO: +7
MN: +8
VA: +8

I agree with most of this, though I think you're way too bearish on NH.

 

[j_k_redtail]

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/795395127321755650

Don't dis Minnesota, man. Cold place, warm people.

*

Almost ready for the new thread. Who picks the subtitle, ultimately?

PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| The Day of Reckoning

 

[Man God]

Well there goes Trump's chances at being class president in MN

They all have bigger hands so he'll get the extra small safety scissors.

 

[thebloo]

PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| 45

 

[Oriel]

Just remember for a second that you live in a world where someone thinks this is true:

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 3m3 minutes ago
This FBI Investigation never moved the needle. What moved the needle with Blacks and Hispanics was the #SpiritCooking mess.

SERIOUSLY?

Let him have his brief movement. He'll have to face reality come Wednesday.

 

[Y2Kev]

If Hillary loses maybe Barbra Streisand can run for president in 2020

She once told a bush supporter to fuck off, people like that these days

 

[newshinycd]

How do we fix the news media? I'm more convinced than ever that privatized news media is fundamentally, structurally broken: pursuit of maximized profit is incompatible with good journalistic coverage. But "state run" of course raises all kinds of warning signs. Who do we entrust with the news?

Honestly, stop watching them. They survive off viewers. It's one of the justifications I had for cutting the cord 4 years ago. If I want real news, I'll pay for a subscription to read well written articles.

 

[Manmademan]

Sure, but they're not particularly what people are looking at. How do we break the death grip the major networks have?

You'd be surprised.

NPR's flagship shows hit about 13-14 million people a week, just behind limbaugh.

PBS Newshour clocks in somewhere around 4 million weekly viewers.

Those outlets don't care about ratings though and rarely publicize them- because ratings are meaningless to their business model.

 

[The Technomancer]

Oh yeah amidst everything else we seem to have missed Trumo's horrifyingly offensive comments in Minnesota. As someone who lived in the cities for 5 years, fuck off you orange piece of shit

http://time.com/4560078/donald-trump-minnesota-somali-refugees/

In a pitch to suspend the nation’s Syrian refugee program, Donald Trump said Minnesotans have “suffered enough” from accepting Somali immigrants into their state.

“Here in Minnesota you have seen firsthand the problems caused with faulty refugee vetting, with large numbers of Somali refugees coming into your state, without your knowledge, without your support or approval,” Trump said at a Minneapolis rally Sunday afternoon.

The area is so much richer for the local Somalian population

 

[mo60]

Let him have his brief movement. He'll have to face reality come Wednesday.

Lots of trump suppporters like Bill Mitchell will have to face reality on Wednesday.

 

[whyamihere]

I agree with most of this, though I think you're way too bearish on NH.

Probably. Felt like that one could've been bigger but I hedged my bets.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| The Oppo Was Us All Along

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm about to dagger BErnard Kerik on twitter!!!

 

[eBay Huckster]

tip: if you're mad about TV media being shitty unaccountable garbage, maybe stop watching TV media obsessively

 

[BrokenFiction]

Best Batman has spoken.

 

[whyamihere]

tip: if you're mad about TV media being shitty unaccountable garbage, maybe stop watching TV media obsessively

.

 

[TestOfTide]

sad but tru



party foul

no hogging oppo

I'll tell you all on Wednesday. You can even make a post to remind me on Wednesday afternoon.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

He actually believes he can win Minnesota?

Uhh... what?

 

[Y2Kev]

He actually believes he can win Minnesota?

Uhh... what?

well he just won a huge poll there


(it was a high school student poll)

 

[mo60]

He actually believes he can win Minnesota?

Uhh... what?

He doesn't recognize that pissing off minorities in Minnesota like Somali's is not going to help him win the state.

 

[bachikarn]

Why does Nate Silver think betting markets are a source of relevant information?

He is a former poker player. Guessing that is why.

 

[Jombie]

Best Batman has spoken.

That makes me feel better, and I've had a rough couple of days (unrelated to this shitshow of an election).

 

[Manmademan]

tip: if you're mad about TV media being shitty unaccountable garbage, maybe stop watching TV media obsessively

This also. i'm shocked at how many Poligaffers will sit and live comment on whatever bullshit happens to be on CNN.

It's trash television. barely one notch above maury povich or jerry springer. Talking heads filling the air with whatever will keep you listening, accuracy be damned.

turn it off. stop giving them the mentions, the clicks, the eyeballs.

 

[Rockin' Ranger]

PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| The Oppo Was In Our Hearts All Along

.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

The best thing about this is that a lot of these people have never voted before, are now clued in on what the GOP really is, and now that they have voted are likely to vote again.

We could potentially see a repeat of how the Muslim community used to reliably vote Republican pre-9/11 and made then turned on them due to all the rhetoric

 

[eBay Huckster]

This also. i'm shocked at how many Poligaffers will sit and live comment on whatever bullshit happens to be on CNN.

It's trash television. barely one notch above maury povich or jerry springer. Talking heads filling the air with whatever will keep you listening, accuracy be damned.

turn it off. stop giving them the mentions, the clicks, the eyeballs.

seriously.

i have not had cable for the last 3 years. the sum total of my exposure to CNN in the past year has been the approximately 5 seconds it's on a TV in my line of sight as i walk through the Ohio Union.

i am no worse off in terms of being politically informed for it.

 

[tuxfool]

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/795395127321755650

Always about him.

 

[Oblivion]

Just remember for a second that you live in a world where someone thinks this is true:

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 3m3 minutes ago
This FBI Investigation never moved the needle. What moved the needle with Blacks and Hispanics was the #SpiritCooking mess.

SERIOUSLY?

To be honest, that would be a less idiotic reason to vote against Hillary than the stupid fucking emails.

 

[Manmademan]

The best thing about this is that a lot of these people have never voted before, are now clued in on what the GOP really is, and now that they have voted are likely to vote again.

This is pretty much what happened to black voters.

Black voting participation shot up like a rocket right along with the polarization of the electorate. The more the GOP used black people as a boogeyman to drive rednecks to polls, the more black voters paid attention.

people credit obama with record breaking black turnout, but that shit was already well in progress. Black voters ABSOLUTELY LOATHE republicans and that's never going to reverse.

seriously.

i have not had cable for the last 3 years. the sum total of my exposure to CNN in the past year has been the approximately 5 seconds it's on a TV in my line of sight as i walk through the Ohio Union.

i am no worse off in terms of being politically informed for it.

you're probably better informed. Cable news has a habit of sensationalizing complete bullshit, and making races look closer than they actually are (DEAD HEAT!)

if you're getting your news from elsewhere (NOT TWITTER) you're not panicking right now at all.

 

[newshinycd]

So whats the thread subject gonna be when the election is called for Hillary?

PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| God Save The Queen!

In the unlikely event that Trump is elected?

PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Donald Trumpgaryen: The Mad King

 

[shiba5]

Just remember for a second that you live in a world where someone thinks this is true:

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 3m3 minutes ago
This FBI Investigation never moved the needle. What moved the needle with Blacks and Hispanics was the #SpiritCooking mess.

SERIOUSLY?

This dude needs to be in a padded room.