Okay, after taking a long time to try and parse out what actually went wrong, here is what I think. People can feel free to correct me if I make some kind of blatantly obvious error.
First, I think Clinton ran an incredibly honest and integrity driven campaign. There were some questionable spots, and that deplorable gaffe hurt her, but all in all, it's hard for me to find fault with Hillary's conduct in terms of just being a genuinely honest politician trying to make a positive change.
This was not communicated clearly, and I place 90% of the blame squarely on the media for this. Lets get one thing straight here, this was not an election driven by policies. The scandals of Clinton, however hollow and meaningless they were, dominated the news. It didn't matter that Trump's scandals were covered just as much, the fact that her fucking emails kept getting brought up over and over and over and over, it created this sense that both politicians were equally corrupt. I mean, why would the news keep talking about the corrupt things they did if they weren't?
The only way I can see to have countered this was some kind of strong talking point that Clinton had. But honestly, the publicity she had wasn't nearly as marketable as Trump's. "Stronger Together" is very bland and generic and "I'm with Her" is better, but doesn't stick in the mind nearly as much as "Make America Great Again". Granted, it might be because Clinton supporters had actual things of substance to talk about rather than a catchphrase, while every discussion with Trump supporters has them walking the statement into "We're just doing this because we want to Make America Great Again". Obama used a similar rhetorical technique, by making "Yes We Can" the de-facto response to questions. "Can we fix racial inequality?" "Yes we can!" Bernie managed to get one in the primaries. "Feel the Bern" Public relations has always been Hillary's weakest suit, and even as a supporter, I never thought either of her slogans were particularly good.
In terms of policies, Hillary is goddamn unbeatable. She had so many, was so prepared, and manhandled Trump in the debates to an almost embarassing degree. But this race was just never about policies. And I always knew that policies took a backseat to public performance, but the degree to which no one cared that she was going to eliminate student debt was almost bizarre. I heard about that, I almost crapped myself. All my student loans forgiven? That wasn't the thing I was looking most forward to, but it would have benefitted me most directly and I think that's something most young adults face. You tell any newly graduated person you're willing to forgive their student debt, they should kiss you right on the spot, with tongue, whoever you are. But with Hillary, she announced on the DLC and people were like "Meh, that's cool." I was willing to let it go since people were high on hopium, but there is probably something seriously wrong when it's not the other side not talking about the amazing thing your doing, but your own. Like, that should have been the moment that Hillary became the chosen one for the entire mellenial generation. But it was just drowned out somehow...
Speaking of Hopium, I hate to say that pride before the fall shit, but I think it legitimately happened. I mean, we had reason to believe, all the polls were in our favor. That's why Hillary not stepping into Michigan may seem like a idiot error, just look at
this. She's consistently leading by a high amount. Trying to win big and go after harder to flip states made some tactical sense. I mean, why waste energy on a state that you almost certainly won when you can get more states, potentially ensuring more electoral votes? I mean, the name of the game is the election, so if you have Michigan in the bag, why not go after something else? I feel this this was the case with
Wisconsin,
Pennsylvania, even
Florida. When you look at these polls on basically any day other than election day, can what prediction would you make based on who'd they go to?
Plus, this is probably the biggest election of all time. The debates were the most watched debates of any presidential election. Everyone saw these debates. Everyone was on every story that was made on it. You'd think this would produce the highest turnout of all time?
Not to mention the minorities. Surely black people wouldn't vote for Trump? They didn't, but more of them voted for Trump than Romney. Same with Hispanics. And Asians. And somehow...SOMEHOW....more than 53% of white women and 43% of women overall voted for Trump. These are all demographics Hillary should have had in the bag, and I'm still baffled that she didn't.
I also think slogans were a big part of it. Had she something flashy like Obama's enduring "Yes We Can", maybe she could have fought back against the media's focus on scandals. But she fought back with policies. Those should be better, if not just as good, but that's not how it works in showmanship. You can argue that she wasn't the right candidate for that alone, but that rubs me the wrong way. At some point, you put the blame on the voters. There's no one that can actually 'make' voters get up and vote, except the voters themselves. And whether they were voting for hillary or against trump, they were given AMPLE reason to do so.
So I feel this is more on voters than on her. Call me a hillary defender or whatever, but when I look at the polls she had available to her at the time, I think she came to the reasonable conclusion that she was gonna win those states. Even Republicans thought she was gonna win those states. And when I see that she's trying everything within her power to do everything right, I can't help but think that's someone I'd be proud to have representing me. Someone who works so hard to do so much good. No, she's not perfect, and she certainly doesn't have the raw charisma or way with words or slogan of Obama, but she still had so much good behind her.
But ultimately, voters have to show up, and they can vote or not vote for whoever and whatever reason they want. I like to think that they were just drunk on Hopium, that many stayed home thinking "Look at those polls! There's no way Trump takes my state. I'm just gonna sit this one out". I still want to punch these people in the face, but those voters are still well intentioned, you know? They just made a really big statistical critical error.
It's the voters that never got past her shrill voice that get me. The voters who listened to her email scandals being covered over and over without doing research to find out how meaningless they were. Voters who thought her getting pneumonia was a sign of weakness, or "Just can't start to like her". I hope they are a minority in this.
I don't know. This is my assessment, that even the mismanaged campaign information coming up, all the polls, the horror of her opponent, her policies, the assuredness of her victory...that all somehow lead to a minor democratic turnout? It's such a surreal situation. And many people are saying it was because she wasn't the right candidate. And I don't want to come off as a hillary fanboy, because I am aware of her flaws. Could another candiate have come through? Bernie, maybe, but who can tell? With how the media skewed stories and how polls were untruthful to the reality of the situation, there's no real measurement tool we can use to reliably predict anything. All I know is that once you account for the information available, I don't know what more Hillary could have done.