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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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The next Democratic candidate needs to be:


1. Charismatic
2. Anti-free trade, with track record to prove it
3. Not a woman

That's pretty much it. The platform can be the same as Hillary's with the trade caveat.

Agreed on #1.

Number 2 I disagree with. Hillary Clinton didn't push hard enough with her jobs proposal. If the next candidate pushes a jobs bill as "We are not cowering away from the rest of the world. We are going to beat them at their own game by creating workers so skilled that every country wants them" then they can flank the anti trade rhetoric.

Disagree on #3. I think a WHITE woman will have trouble but a minority woman could easily get people energized the same way Obama did, especially if they are new blood.
 

dramatis

Member
The reference to academic papers is because they require an accepted standard of logic and reasoning. If no political scientist would accept your argument for the minimal discrepancy between Feingold and Clinton, I don't see how it is a message that the DNC should take forward with Wisconsin. There are so many more reasons for the loss in Wisconsin.

Again, using your same logic, based on the results in Wisconsin, Trump's messaging failed and the lesson is for him to run a campaign in 2020 that puts him closer to Ron Johnson, who beat Trump by 70,000 votes.
That's not a standard you impose on other posts or posters around here, so I don't know why I have to match up to an academic paper standard, while other guys get to fall by the wayside. This is exactly an example of the problem I'm talking about.

Trump's messaging won him the votes he needed in WI. If he moves closer to Ron Johnson to win more votes in WI, that seems like a logical progression, no?

However, you're constantly moving back into the presidential race territory, rather than thinking about why Feingold lost. "B-But Feingold got only 1000 less than Hillary!" But his vote count margin was -98,766 compared to Hillary's -27,257, which means he lost worse than she did both in percentage margin and in vote count. Kander in Missouri did demonstrably much better than Hillary in his state, which means the fortunes of the state candidate are not so easily tied to the fortunes of the top of the ticket.

The nature of being a losing candidate is that the losing candidate is not what the political climate and electorate wants. Therefore, Feingold is not the model of the future rust belt candidate. You can have economic populism; it's just not what will win elections, not in the rust belt.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Trump may be able to stack the supreme court with Scalia-lite justices before that happens.

Kennedy has expressed some support for doing something about gerrymandering, and he's not retiring that soon.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Y'all remember how Trump constantly projected every terrible thing he did or said or was onto Hillary all through the campaign?

Maybe an audit really is called for...

If it turns out that shit did get rigged we're all screwed. Who the hell would ever trust another election?
 

Debirudog

Member
Saying we should not run a woman nominee is like saying we shouldn't nominate a kenyan muslim. Charisma and being scandal free overrides everything.
 
That's not a standard you impose on other posts or posters around here, so I don't know why I have to match up to an academic paper standard, while other guys get to fall by the wayside. This is exactly an example of the problem I'm talking about.

Trump's messaging won him the votes he needed in WI. If he moves closer to Ron Johnson to win more votes in WI, that seems like a logical progression, no?

However, you're constantly moving back into the presidential race territory, rather than thinking about why Feingold lost. "B-But Feingold got only 1000 less than Hillary!" But his vote count margin was -98,766 compared to Hillary's -27,257, which means he lost worse than she did both in percentage margin and in vote count. Kander in Missouri did demonstrably much better than Hillary in his state, which means the fortunes of the state candidate are not so easily tied to the fortunes of the top of the ticket.

The nature of being a losing candidate is that the losing candidate is not what the political climate and electorate wants. Therefore, Feingold is not the model of the future rust belt candidate. You can have economic populism; it's just not what will win elections, not in the rust belt.

Two things:

1) Agreed that on a state level, we can't run Feingolds everywhere. We need to run Kander types in red states and Warren or Harris types in blue states.

2) I think we can agree that in this election, most of the people who could have voted but didn't were:

- Millenials

- Minorities

- Progressives and Liberals who have similar mindsets as Millenials and Minorities.

Now what that means is that while on a state level you run a 50 state strategy, on a national level you run whatever will get the above 3 categories voting the way they did in 2008. You tailor your message to appeal to these categories with:

1) having the nominee run criminal justice reform as a major part of their platform with a big subcategory being reform in how we tackle drug addiction. And no, Hillary was the wrong candidate to push for this considering her misguided support of harsh crime laws in the 90s. Criminal Justice Reform will energize minorities into voting in 2008 numbers again.

2) having the nominee flank all the anti trade rhetoric with a message about how we will get those jobs back by training people for jobs so well that people from every country will want our skilled workers. This will appeal to both rust belt workers (after they become disappointed in Trump) and millenials sick of their college degrees not helping them get real jobs.

3) having a platform of pushing social equality HARD. I mean in ways that make millenials and minorities think "yes this candidate understands how important equality is". A major part of this platform will be pushing for VRA and CRA of the 21st century.

4) having taking on scammers and financial predators as a major part of the platform. Basically, turning the "lock her up" sentiment on its head by saying "Have you been fucked over by a major industry? Well I promise to have an administration that focuses on you getting the financial justice you need and deserve."

Saying we should not run a woman nominee is like saying we shouldn't nominate a kenyan muslim. Charisma and being scandal free overrides everything.

Exactly. Someone like Kamala Harris or Catherine Masto have a short enough history to appear as clean as Obama. And whereas the GOP knew to start targeting Hillary as early as December 2012, they won't be able to attack Harris or Masto unless they have ridiculously good foresight.

Kennedy has expressed some support for doing something about gerrymandering, and he's not retiring that soon.

That's because SCOTUS already has a long history of striking down the most blatant of gerrymandering. But don't expect Kennedy to go on board with anything that goes beyond "Hey [insert state here], your districting is unacceptable. Try again." He's not going to be on board forcing nonpartisan commissions on districting.
 
Saying we should not run a woman nominee is like saying we shouldn't nominate a kenyan muslim. Charisma and being scandal free overrides everything.

I think Trump has proven that Charisma is everything, period. Clinton's scandals would not have been such an issue if she had managed to actually connect with people.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Saying we should not run a woman nominee is like saying we shouldn't nominate a kenyan muslim. Charisma and being scandal free overrides everything.

I agree with this, although I do think this board tends to underestimate how much having a woman in power drives rural voters to the polls.
 

Grief.exe

Member
dQLfh61.png



🤔🤔🤔
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
When People Magazine is doing it better than you are, that might be a sign it's time to change.
 

Jackpot

Banned
Concerning how Trump threads are being locked in OT now. I get the practicality of not wanting tons of "woe is me" threads clogging up the page, but we're essentially being asked to lower our standards and ignore the bile that spews forth from his mouth and only save it for when he really, really screws up. Normalisation in a nutshell.

The President-Elect just asserted that millions of votes - roughly 100000 times more than has ever been recorded in past elections - were fraudulently cast and GAF policy now would be to have never made threads about it in the first place. It's not our fault he keeps making news.
 
I don't really get why this notion won't die that "Obama" means racism and sexism and the resentment of the upheaval of traditional social order have disappeared. If anything it has intensified it.

It's not remotely fair that you still have to pander to this.

And it doesn't mean don't run women or minorities. But it does mean that everyone should be fully aware of what they're up against.
 
Thing is, be probably believes it, too. He, Donald Trump, could never have actually actually lost the popular vote. What kind of loser wins on just the EC? Trump's no loser!

Our incoming POTUS just said the system that elected him is wrecked. That opens the door to absolutely any criticism against him on the voting process. Idiot. Not that the media will ever pursue anything. This is the same level of stupidity we're used to seeing out of his tweets from during the campaign and clearly it's not going to stop.

Note on Feingold's odd margin-- A family member after some wine on Thanksgiving half-jokingly said that in an election that turned out a ton of white supremacists, the last name raises flags. No one at the table disagreed after taking a few seconds to realize what that meant.
 

Blader

Member
I figured that as people focused more on the popular vote split, the more it would bother Trump. Did not expect him to brainlessly tweet about it so soon though.

What an utter embarrassment of a human being.

Man, you could imagine what would happen if Trump continues to be super unpopular and the Supreme Court strikes down partisan gerrymanders? 2018 in the House would be a SHIT SHOW.

No, I cannot imagine a conservative Supreme Court doing a fucking thing about partisan gerrymandering. Especially after Trump gets his second justice through.
 

RDreamer

Member
Concerning how Trump threads are being locked in OT now. I get the practicality of not wanting tons of "woe is me" threads clogging up the page, but we're essentially being asked to lower our standards and ignore the bile that spews forth from his mouth and only save it for when he really, really screws up. Normalisation in a nutshell.

The President-Elect just asserted that millions of votes - roughly 100000 times more than has ever been recorded in past elections - were fraudulently cast and GAF policy now would be to have never made threads about it in the first place. It's not our fault he keeps making news.

I'm not going to delve into forum policy, but I see this as something that's probably happening literally everywhere now, and that's what frightens me. On social media or with family and friends people are sick of Trump every three seconds and just don't want to hear about it, and that's horrifying because it gives him cover to do whatever the hell he wants without real backlash.

Trump literally is that scene from the Simpsons where Mr. Burns can't get sick because he has every disease possible and none can make it through the "door" simply because there's too many. That's how Trump won and that's how he'll keep going.

Well, if you want more media headlines to trigger you, the NYT has a story on "Combative, Populist Steve Bannon".

woooooooooow

fuck the New York Times.
 

Balphon

Member
I'm not going to delve into forum policy, but I see this as something that's probably happening literally everywhere now, and that's what frightens me. On social media or with family and friends people are sick of Trump every three seconds and just don't want to hear about it, and that's horrifying because it gives him cover to do whatever the hell he wants without real backlash.

Trump literally is that scene from the Simpsons where Mr. Burns can't get sick because he has every disease possible and none can make it through the "door" simply because there's too many. That's how Trump won and that's how he'll keep going.

Even the Twitter bullshit that his most hardcore supporters love is tiresome for most people. He'll do something horrid enough eventually.

The question is how many minor ills he can inflict before then.
 

faisal233

Member
I'm not going to delve into forum policy, but I see this as something that's probably happening literally everywhere now, and that's what frightens me. On social media or with family and friends people are sick of Trump every three seconds and just don't want to hear about it, and that's horrifying because it gives him cover to do whatever the hell he wants without real backlash.

Trump literally is that scene from the Simpsons where Mr. Burns can't get sick because he has every disease possible and none can make it through the "door" simply because there's too many. That's how Trump won and that's how he'll keep going.



woooooooooow

fuck the New York Times.
This is only working cause he isn't prez yet. The second there is an actual fire and prez trump is playing with his Twitter, they will turn on him.
 

RDreamer

Member
This is only working cause he isn't prez yet. The second there is an actual fire and prez trump is playing with his Twitter, they will turn on him.

At this point hoping for things to change in any way shape or form feels foolish. People have been assuring others/themselves that the media will change or that he will change or that something will change this whole election cycle. My money is on the fact that it won't. What you see is what you get. What has happened for the last year is what we're going to continue with.

People said the media would grill him after the primary. Then they said he'd be grilled after winning the election. Now it's that he actually has to be president and then they'll change. Nah. They won't.
 

royalan

Member
I'm glad the mods closed those threads. I wish they moderated our fucking media.

This is Donald Trump. Donald Trump. This man has attacked everyone. Broken every norm. Crossed every line. This isn't new. This is established behavior. A ploy his handlers have JOKED about. The only people who are surprised by the shit he tweets at this point are the people who, despite everything we've seen, STILL don't want to believe it. STILL don't want to take Trump at his word, and are thus constantly and stupendously shocked whenever he shows you, AGAIN, that this is who he is.

But for those of us with our eyes open, it's tiring. It's absolutely tiring so see Donald Trump keep rolling out the same trap, and the same people KEEP falling for it.

The left and the media at large are Wile E. Coyote running into the cliff wall with a tunnel painted on it over, and over, and over, and over, and over....
 

numble

Member
That's not a standard you impose on other posts or posters around here, so I don't know why I have to match up to an academic paper standard, while other guys get to fall by the wayside. This is exactly an example of the problem I'm talking about.

Trump's messaging won him the votes he needed in WI. If he moves closer to Ron Johnson to win more votes in WI, that seems like a logical progression, no?

However, you're constantly moving back into the presidential race territory, rather than thinking about why Feingold lost. "B-But Feingold got only 1000 less than Hillary!" But his vote count margin was -98,766 compared to Hillary's -27,257, which means he lost worse than she did both in percentage margin and in vote count. Kander in Missouri did demonstrably much better than Hillary in his state, which means the fortunes of the state candidate are not so easily tied to the fortunes of the top of the ticket.

The nature of being a losing candidate is that the losing candidate is not what the political climate and electorate wants. Therefore, Feingold is not the model of the future rust belt candidate. You can have economic populism; it's just not what will win elections, not in the rust belt.
Actually, I have imposed that standard elsewhere on GAF, multiple times. I am very happy to stick to the point that being within the standard deviation means marginal differences are statistically meaningless. This is why being up 1-2% in the polls is also why pollsters will say a race is basically tied. If you are going to say that these small differences in other polls or contests are meaningful, I will challenge you every time.

Wisconsin is a very small part of the Rust Belt, and it doesn't even have a single automobile assembly plants, like Ohio or Michigan. It is not emblematic of the Rust Belt and to use it as guidance for the future is not reasonable. Both Clinton and Feingold were up in the polls and their losses were considered upsets--they were winnable elections that were loss for reasons other than messaging. A Democrat can probably win by campaigning there, and putting resources into GOTV and voter ID.

In Ohio, you have evidence of people in Youngstown and Mahoning County voting for both Trump and Tim Ryan (with Ryan running 18 points ahead of Clinton), which only happens if people that voted for Obama were switching to Trump but still voting for Ryan.
 
McDonald’s To Place Automated Ordering Stations At All US Locations
Threadworthy imo if anyone wants
McDonald’s has announced plans to roll out automated kiosks and mobile pay options at all of its U.S. locations, raising questions about the future of its 1.5 million employees in the country and around the globe.

Roughly 500 restaurants in Florida, New York and California now have the automated ordering stations, and restaurants in Chicago, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, D.C., will be outfitted in 2017, according to CNNMoney.
The locations that are seeing the first automated kiosks closely correlate with the fight for a $15 minimum wage. Gov. Andrew Cuomo signed into law a new $15 minimum wage for New York state in 2016, and the University of California has proposed to pay its low-wage employees $15. Florida’s minimum wage will rise Jan. 1, 2017. Seattle raised its minimum wage to $15 in 2014, followed by San Francisco and Los Angeles.
These machines will be saving Mcdonald's quite a lot of money, since they won't need an hourly wage to operate. A lot of people are going to lose their jobs
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
McKay Coppins said:
Exit polls showed 2/3 of voters thought Trump was dishonest, untrustworthy & didn't have temperament to be POTUS. Many voted for him anyway.

This is something that really needs to be unpacked to figure out where to go from here for democrats. Did this happen because Hillary was that unlikeable, or was there something else entirely?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
This is something that really needs to be unpacked to figure out where to go from here for democrats. Did this happen because Hillary was that unlikeable, or was there something else entirely?

Clinton had better numbers on all of those things. So if we're taking the exits as gospel then whatever made him win was something that had nothing to do with any of those issues.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009

Debirudog

Member
This is something that really needs to be unpacked to figure out where to go from here for democrats. Did this happen because Hillary was that unlikeable, or was there something else entirely?

I know people who think Hillary is Satan's spawn, they really do believe that Trump is the lesser of two evils.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
An exit poll is just a poll.
It's likely still subject to the same systemic error that we saw in regular polling.

well, no. You don't have contact bias, for example, because you are contacting people by virtue of being outside the polling station, and you don't have to worry about likely voter assumptions because you know they voted because this is an exit poll. The main systemic error you have to worry about is your old favourite, partisan non-response bias, where Trumpsters coming out of the polling booths prefer to say "fuck you" than answer the question. But in general, exit polls, while not infallible, are much more accurate than regular polling, and without them, it's not exactly clear how we construct any conclusions at all.
 

Makai

Member
One takeaway might be that you shouldn't expect people to put more effort into their responses than you do.

Another might be that we already have Kristoffer to post obviously facile and false hot takes and don't need two!

Edit: I forgot he got permaed. Just go with the first takeaway.
Then let's hear it lazy bones
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Yes, I was referring to non-response bias. Also they are just as bad, worse? for subpopulations.

They're still better than ordinary polls for subpops, because again, you don't have contact bias or the risk of incorrect likely voter models. Not perfect, but again - if you discard them entirely, how do you make any conclusions at all? They're the most accurate form of polling we have, and on the occasions they go wrong, we're usually at least post facto capable of correcting them. If they don't meet the standard, we may as well suppose that Trump won the black vote, because what else do we have to disprove that?
 
Automation is about to decimate the Midwest even more than it already is. And they don't seem to be interested in alternatives so too bad I guess
 

Coolluck

Member
It's forum policy to close Trump threads now? Isn't that the normalizing that we aren't supposed to accept? Wouldn't a better compromise have been a constantly updating OT?

The popular vote count may be the only shimmer of hope for the future for me. I never would have guessed how racist, sexist, stupid, or unaffected by racism and sexism so many people in this country are. I mean I knew it was a lot but didn't think it was that bad.
 
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