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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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M

Makai

Member
Retromelon said:
These machines will be saving Mcdonald's quite a lot of money, since they won't need an hourly wage to operate. A lot of people are going to lose their jobs
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Customers would have to prefer ordering with these, and some do, but most don't. I think they mostly just help these stores with their throughput during peak hours.
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
TestOfTide said:
Agreed on #1.

Number 2 I disagree with. Hillary Clinton didn't push hard enough with her jobs proposal. If the next candidate pushes a jobs bill as "We are not cowering away from the rest of the world. We are going to beat them at their own game by creating workers so skilled that every country wants them" then they can flank the anti trade rhetoric.

Disagree on #3. I think a WHITE woman will have trouble but a minority woman could easily get people energized the same way Obama did, especially if they are new blood.
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How would the US beat other countries at their own game by making affected US workers so skilled that every country wants them via a jobs bill?

I thought the game was to watch others engage in a race to the bottom royal leveraging their state intervention and protectionist policies to ensure their producers can compete globally. Meanwhile, 1st world nations profit in a narrow sense.

Protecting the US labor market with domestic initiatives or enforced international standards e.g. labor/consumer/environment are different games. Alternatively, you could definitely reduce the rate in which manufacturing jobs are being lost and bring some of them back at a cost if that's what the people want.
 
M

mo60

Member
Coolluck said:
It's forum policy to close Trump threads now? Isn't that the normalizing that we aren't supposed to accept? Wouldn't a better compromise have been a constantly updating OT?

The popular vote count may be the only shimmer of hope for the future for me. I never would have guessed how racist, sexist, stupid, or unaffected by racism and sexism so many people in this country are. I mean I knew it was a lot but didn't think it was that bad.
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Yeah. The republicans are never going to win the PV as long as they are to far to the right.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 12m12 minutes ago

Serious voter fraud in Virginia, New Hampshire and California - so why isn't the media reporting on this? Serious bias - big problem!

There was no fucking way you were winning California you orange son of a bitch.

Now he's going to get on the fucking fraud train because someone is challenging him?

This mother fucker.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Even if you DO force manufacturers to build their plants here in the States, the jobs still won't come back, because they'd only need a fraction of the people they used to.

But Trump will be able to boast about bringing back the factories, and people will eat it up. The core problem of the Obama Recovery is that even though things are better, they don't feel better, and there's little visible signposts of the improvements. This would be the inverse. The economy is going to tank (again), but the big shiny stuff is going to be front and center, so at the end of the day, people will feel like it's working.

Considering Liberals apparently run Hollywood, we really suck at PR.
 
J

jack_package_200

Banned
Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 12m12 minutes ago

Serious voter fraud in Virginia, New Hampshire and California - so why isn't the media reporting on this? Serious bias - big problem!

There was no fucking way you were winning California you orange son of a bitch.

Now he's going to get on the fucking fraud train because someone is challenging him?

This mother fucker.
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Ya did real good there, merica, by making this man president
 
F

FyreWulff

Member
W

Wilsongt

Member
I am pissed off all over again. Trump and his crew have done nothing but teabagged the corpse of the Democratic party and its voters for the last three weeks, now the idiot is going to try to call into play the legitimacy of the popular vote?

YOU WON. YOU FUCKING WON. SHUT THE FUCK UP.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
That's why you eat the burger by holding it through the wrapper it came in. And everyone knows you eat doritos by tipping the bag into your mouth so you don't get cheese dust fingerprints. C'mon Erasureacer don't be a scrub
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 12m12 minutes ago

Serious voter fraud in Virginia, New Hampshire and California - so why isn't the media reporting on this? Serious bias - big problem!

There was no fucking way you were winning California you orange son of a bitch.

Now he's going to get on the fucking fraud train because someone is challenging him?

This mother fucker.
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Trump: I'm going to win California and New York
OT: I could see it

Will never cease to be the dumbest statement I've seen from the OT collective next to "We'll call the Supreme Court hotline!"
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Wilsongt said:
I am pissed off all over again. Trump and his crew have done nothing but teabagged the corpse of the Democratic party and its voters for the last three weeks, now the idiot is going to try to call into play the legitimacy of the popular vote?

YOU WON. YOU FUCKING WON. SHUT THE FUCK UP.
Click to expand...

Honestly the fact he's talking about voter fraud and his proclivity for projection almost had me do a double-take.
 
P

Pakkidis

Member
I am not American but the next 4 years is going to be something else. If this is how he is acting NOW I can't imagine what will happen in the future. I wish you all the best of luck.
 
M

mo60

Member
Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 12m12 minutes ago

Serious voter fraud in Virginia, New Hampshire and California - so why isn't the media reporting on this? Serious bias - big problem!

There was no fucking way you were winning California you orange son of a bitch.

Now he's going to get on the fucking fraud train because someone is challenging him?

This mother fucker.
Click to expand...

Says the guy who literally lost each of the states listed by 5.32%,0.37% and 29.8% respectively.
 
M

Makai

Member
Pakkidis said:
I am not American but the next 4 years is going to be something else. If this is how he is acting NOW I can't imagine what will happen in the future. I wish you all the best of luck.
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@realDonaldTrump _____ country is dishonest. Their people deserve better. I should probably nuke them.

I feel a little safer here but not by much.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
TheLaughingStock said:
How would the US beat other countries at their own game by making affected US workers so skilled that every country wants them via a jobs bill?

I thought the game was to watch others engage in a race to the bottom royal leveraging their state intervention and protectionist policies to ensure their producers can compete globally. Meanwhile, 1st world nations profit in a narrow sense.

Protecting the US labor market with domestic initiatives or enforced international standards e.g. labor/consumer/environment are different games. Alternatively, you could definitely reduce the rate in which manufacturing jobs are being lost and bring some of them back at a cost if that's what the people want.
Click to expand...

Because the kinds of jobs that are disappearing are the ones that use unskilled workers.

Meanwhile the biggest reason the US is losing in trade is because even Mexico has started to have skilled workers who are better and in larger numbers.

But there are still areas where we need more workers, but they aren't the kind of jobs that can hire unskilled workers:

- Healthcare
- Education
- Clean Energy
- Civic Engineering (infrastructure)

And it's not just in the US that need more people to take those jobs. For example the biggest reason Canada has somewhat of a "waiting period" issue with their healthcare is because they just don't have enough doctors.

If the US ever starts focusing on training people for those 4 areas, then later on you will see other countries start looking for American workers.

And if we start getting to a point when we can start exporting workers, then that will also mean we can start having foreign policy that, while still interventionist, would focus on the kind of things that the world used to like about America. Stuff like the Marshall Plan.
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
If history books are allowed to be written about this period, they're going to lament that this was the most frustrating period for anyone who believed in accountability or such luxuries as ... facts.

At least the CNN website makes him seem like a sad petty winner, but I don't think anyone will ultimately care, and the EC will do what it's voted to do and vote for him in.
 
T

Totakeke

Member
If anyone still thinks that building infrastructure is Trump's only redeeming quality, think again.

As the former New York Times architecture critic Herbert Muschamp put it, Trump’s towers “don’t quite register as architecture” but instead stand as “signs of money, status, power” like the “diamonds, furs, yachts and other tokens of the deluxe life enjoyed in Marbella”. What Muschamp found objectionable about Trump’s taste was not the “desire for attention, for the best, the most, the tallest, the most eye-catching” but “his failure to realise these desires creatively in the architectural medium”. For the king of superlatives, nothing has ever turned out quite as “tremendous” as he promised.

His first Manhattan project, completed in 1980, set the tone, taking the ailing Commodore hotel, a handsome brick and limestone building from 1919, and entombing it inside a shell of mirrored glass. It spawned the Trump style of wrapping standard buildings in paper-thin party costumes of chrome, bronze or gold depending on the occasion, and adorning them with sparkly signifiers of glitz and glamour.

Just like his policies, Trump’s real estate projects are often characterised by bold claims that don’t quite stand up – beginning with their height. He famously inflates the floor numbers of his buildings: the “90-storey” Trump World has 72 floors, while apartments in Trump Tower begin at “floor 30”, despite there being just 19 commercial storeys below them. “People are very happy,” he has said, openly proud of his marketing ruse. “They like to have apartments that have height, the psychology of it.”
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Similar stories of inflated expectations, followed by legal wrangling, are repeated across the globe. The Trump Ocean Club in Panama was plagued by delays. By the time the yonic edifice was completed in 2011, there was a glut of high-end apartments, so prices were slashed and many buyers walked away. The condo owners’ association is trying to sack Trump’s management company, claiming it exceeded budgets and used its fees to cover hotel costs. Trump, in turn, is now seeking $75m in damages.

The Trump Tower hotel in Toronto – topped with a strange quiff like the man himself – also opened late to find the market flooded with five-star hotels. It has been subject to a lawsuit by buyers who say they were misled by marketing materials, while the local developer is also trying to remove Trump’s name from the project.
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https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2016/nov/27/architecture-donald-trump-tower-president-elect

And more examples in the article.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
TumblingHippo said:
If history books are allowed to be written about this period, they're going to lament that this was the most frustrating period for anyone who believed in accountability or such luxuries as ... facts.

At least the CNN website makes him seem like a sad petty winner, but I don't think anyone will ultimately care, and the EC will do what it's voted to do and vote for him in.
Click to expand...

Yet MSNBC is going with the term "Evidence-free claim". Stop beating around the bush and call him out.

Trump could had easily just said nothing and let Jill Stein and Clinton look stupid if the recount actually went through, but no. Now he is really making himself look like an ass and are causing more people to look at the election as if something wrong happened.

He can't even fucking win gracefully.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 12m12 minutes ago

Serious voter fraud in Virginia, New Hampshire and California - so why isn't the media reporting on this? Serious bias - big problem!

There was no fucking way you were winning California you orange son of a bitch.

Now he's going to get on the fucking fraud train because someone is challenging him?

This mother fucker.
Click to expand...

Surprised he didn't mention New York too.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Crab said:
well, no. You don't have contact bias, for example, because you are contacting people by virtue of being outside the polling station, and you don't have to worry about likely voter assumptions because you know they voted because this is an exit poll. The main systemic error you have to worry about is your old favourite, partisan non-response bias, where Trumpsters coming out of the polling booths prefer to say "fuck you" than answer the question. But in general, exit polls, while not infallible, are much more accurate than regular polling, and without them, it's not exactly clear how we construct any conclusions at all.
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I'm actually pretty surprised to see this post because I understood that you worked in polling!

nyt said:
All of this starts with a basic misconception: that the exit polls are usually pretty good.

I have no idea where this idea comes from, because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. We can start in 2008, when the exit polls showed a pretty similar bias toward Barack Obama. Or in 2004, when the exit polls showed John Kerry easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.”...

Now, how can this happen? There are a lot of sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll. Here are a few:

■ Differential nonresponse, in which the supporters of one candidate are likelier to participate than those of another candidate. Exit polls have limited means to correct for nonresponse, since they can weight only by visually identifiable characteristics. Hispanic origin, income and education, for instance, are left out.

■ Cluster effects, which happen when the precincts selected aren’t representative of the overall population. This is a very big danger in state exit polls, which include only a small number of precincts. As a result, exit polls have a larger margin of error than an ordinary poll of similar size. These precincts are selected to have the right balance of Democratic and Republican precincts, which isn’t so helpful in a primary.

■ Absentee voters aren’t included at all in states where they represent less than 20 percent or so of the vote.

For all these reasons, exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. With this kind of history, you can see why no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/u...-was-not-stolen-from-bernie-sanders.html?_r=0

Exit polls just aren't that accurate. They certainly aren't more accurate than regular polling.

The reliable way to construct conclusions is from the voter file.
 
T

Totakeke

Member
Trump’s lies have a purpose. They are an assault on democracy.
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“Darkness is good. Dick Cheney. Darth Vader. Satan. That’s power,” he said. “It only helps us when they get it wrong. When they’re blind to who we are and what we’re doing.”

That’s how Bannon ran the Trump campaign, and it appears to be how he’s running the transition team. Since the election, Trump has baited the press with a flurry of potential cabinet picks, instigated a bizarre fight with the cast of a Broadway musical, and concealed his true policy priorities behind a thicket of conflicting reports.

It’s working. The media’s coverage of the Trump transition is blurry and confused. Stories that should be real scandals — such as Trump’s apparent efforts to manipulate international diplomacy for personal financial gain — get lost in the shuffle
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Non-linear warfare
Bannon is a skilled practitioner of the “darkness” strategy, but he is not its inventor. The real Master of the Dark Arts is another Karl Rove equivalent: Vladislav Surkov, a top adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Surkov, the documentary journalist Adam Curtis said in a 2014 film, is “a hero of our time.” He went on to describe the Surkovian method:
His aim is to undermine peoples’ perceptions of the world, so they never know what is really happening.

Surkov turned Russian politics into a bewildering, constantly changing piece of theater. He sponsored all kinds of groups, from neo-Nazi skinheads to liberal human rights groups. He even backed parties that were opposed to President Putin.

But the key thing was, that Surkov then let it be known that this was what he was doing, which meant that no one was sure what was real or fake. As one journalist put it: “It is a strategy of power that keeps any opposition constantly confused.”

A ceaseless shape-shifting that is unstoppable because it is undefinable. It is exactly what Surkov is alleged to have done in the Ukraine this year. In typical fashion, as the war began, Surkov published a short story about something he called non-linear war. A war where you never know what the enemy are really up to, or even who they are. The underlying aim, Surkov says, is not to win the war, but to use the conflict to create a constant state of destabilized perception, in order to manage and control.
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Bannon and Trump deployed that strategy with aplomb throughout the primary. Because of the constant media focus on his campaign, Trump was able to bombard the airwaves with an unending stream of surreal falsehoods. At the same time, Bannon turned Breitbart News into a Trump Party organ and used it to disseminate further confusion. Independent of Trump and Bannon, a number of other fake news sites — an improbable number of which happened to be headquartered in Macedonia — inundated social media with inaccurate information. There is some evidence to suggest that Surkov’s employer contributed to the process as well, using the website Wikileaks as a conduit.

Many of the stories promulgated by Trump, Bannon, and their allies — such as Trump’s claim that Sen. Ted Cruz’s father was somehow involved in the Kennedy assassination — were obviously false and easily debunked. But the sheer volume of these stories had their intended effect. When fake news becomes omnipresent, all news becomes suspect. Everything starts to look like a lie.
Click to expand...

How to fight a shadow
If the United States is to remain a liberal democracy, then Trump’s non-linear warfare needs to fail. Politics needs to once again become grounded in some kind of stable, shared reality. It’s not clear how that could happen. But there are at least a couple of steps that anti-authoritarians can make right away to ensure that the Surkov style of rhetoric does not go unchallenged.

First, social media companies need to be held accountable for facilitating the spread of misinformation. Men like Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, through their greed and stupidity, have shepherded authoritarianism to power in the United States. By embracing a facile definition of “openness,” they’ve sought to reap the traffic benefits of right-wing propaganda while ignoring its disastrous social consequences. They’ve since taken some small steps to rectify their errors, but for now, at least, it’s too little too late.

Second, journalists need to understand what Trump is doing and refuse to play by his rules. He is going to use the respect and deference typically accorded to the presidency as an instrument for spreading more lies. Reporters must refuse to treat him like a normal president and refuse to bestow any unearned legitimacy on his administration. They must also give up their posture of high-minded objectivity — and, along with it, any hope of privileged access to the Trump White House. The incoming president has made clear that he expects unquestioning obedience from the press, and will regard anyone who doesn’t give it to him as an enemy. That is the choice every news outlet faces for the next four years: Subservience and complicity, or open hostility. There is no middle ground.
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https://thinkprogress.org/when-everything-is-a-lie-power-is-the-only-truth-1e641751d150#.c14b6bi2v

It certainly was on display during the Ukranian conflict and it worked. To people who don't follow politics, all these political news must sound like 24/7 nonsense.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Plinko said:
This is something that really needs to be unpacked to figure out where to go from here for democrats. Did this happen because Hillary was that unlikeable, or was there something else entirely?
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I don't think it's too confusing. Trump had large margins with voters who disliked both candidates and those who made up their mind in the last week. So yes, Hillary was that unlikeable, if by that you mean that the FBI more or less deliberately sabotaged her in an unprecedented act of lawbreaking, and the media aided and abetted it by indulging themselves in literally years of biased coverage, while minimizing the absurd flaws of her opponent on the complacent principle that he couldn't possibly win.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
pigeon said:
I don't think it's too confusing. Trump had large margins with voters who disliked both candidates and those who made up their mind in the last week. So yes, Hillary was that unlikeable, if by that you mean that the FBI more or less deliberately sabotaged her in an unprecedented act of lawbreaking, and the media aided and abetted it by indulging themselves in literally years of biased coverage, while minimizing the absurd flaws of her opponent on the complacent principle that he couldn't possibly win.
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I think this is true for the presidency.

There does need to be some understanding of how we lost the senate though. I'm not sold on the WWC revolt though
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
The fact that Trump is complaining about "fraud" stuff now has me 100% convinced there's bullshit to be uncovered in WI, lol. We should at least uncover this shit if there. Trump can go crowdfund recounts/audits in states he lost if he want, too! Leave it to him to try to throw the validity of the election into question despite fucking winning.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
aspiegamer said:
The fact that Trump is complaining about "fraud" stuff now has me 100% convinced there's bullshit to be uncovered in WI, lol. We should at least uncover this shit if there. Trump can go crowdfund recounts/audits in states he lost if he want, too! Leave it to him to try to throw the validity of the election into question despite fucking winning.
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trump is an idiot and a narcissist prone to conspiracies. That's the explaination
 
P

pigeon

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
I think this is true for the presidency.

There does need to be some understanding of how we lost the senate though. I'm not sold on the WWC revolt though
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I mean, my theory is not meant to excuse or absolve the millions of mostly white voters at all income levels who chose deliberately to vote for a white supremacist and sex offender, just to be clear. There was still a deep moral failure on the part of much of America.

Leaving that aside, why isn't polarization sufficient?
 
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