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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Economists overwhelmingly agree that free trade is good for the average American. So if economy is your number one issue, you should support the pro-free trade side.
I got my master's earlier this year. It's more complicated than this. So, pretty much every economist will agree that free trade boosts GDP per capita for developed nations that have proper protections for emergent industries and anti-competitive practices. But GDP per capita isn't the end of the story. If you remove the government from the picture, trade has winners and losers. You're a loser if you belong to an industry a country has a comparative disadvantage in, and a winner if you belong to an industry a country has a comparative advantage in. If you add the winner's gain to the loser's losses, you'll get a positive number - that is, GDP per capita goes up. But the winner still won, and the loser definitely still lost - they're worse off than if there wasn't free trade. So while on average everyone wins, not every individual wins. The average American can get richer while the poorest American gets poorer - these are not contradictions.
So economists have the caveat: free trade is better than no free trade if the losers are compensated with some of the winners' gains. If you can do that, you have a Pareto improvement. Everyone is at least as well off as they were before, some better off. So free trade is good. And this is a really basic principle of economics, understood at some level since Ricardo.
But in political terms, those caveats get ignored. The transfer system from capital (something America has a comparative advantage in) to labour, especially unskilled labour (something America has a comparative disadvantage in) has got weaken over time - not stronger. Instead, you get politicians saying that free trade is good in and of itself for everyone. This isn't true; it has to be harnessed appropriately. As it is, it is probably true that reducing free trade in some specific markets and industries would actually be better for the American poor than the status quo. Less good than keeping free trade and improving redistribution, but better than free trade without redistribution.
Now, I am strongly in favour of {free trade, redistribution}. But if redistribution is not feasible, then I would prefer {no free trade, no redistribution} to {free trade, no redistribution}. So for me to back the free trade candidate, I need to be persuaded they actually care about the American poor. Normally I am persuaded, although I'm not always convinced my faith is rewarded. But that caveat has to be made clear.