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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Can we just do a poll of Obama supporters who don't like Hillary? That seems like it would be helpful to understand what happened but it hasn't happened yet.

Like:

"If you voted for Obama in 2012, but did not vote for Hillary in 2016, rank these reasons as to why you didn't vote for Hillary Clinton.

-Email scandal
-Benghazi scandal
-Thought Hillary was a racist
-Thought Hillary was too elitist
-Thought Hillary was too aggressive in foreign policy
-Thought that Donald Trump would do a good job protecting Social Security and Medicare
-Thought Hillary Clinton was a liar
-Thought Hillary Clinton was too economically liberal
-Thought Hillary Clinton was too economically conservative
-Thought Donald Trump would improve economic performance"


... This seems like it would allow us to understand what happened instead of just wildly guessing.

Asking people why they voted a particular way or would vote a particular way is often wildly inaccurate. People struggle to fit often relatively unique or nuanced or crazy opinions into the categories provided, people come up with ex post rationalizations to explain a gut feel, people don't want to reveal they're racist as fuck and come up with something else, and so on. You're normally better just doing a demographic study of who exactly switched, and then trying to fill in the meat of the details with a small number of qualitative rather than quantitative surveys - so find fifty of these people, and try and get one-to-one rather long interview style things with them.

YouGov often just straight up refuses "Why did you vote X way?" polls because frankly they suck and the company don't want to be associated with them.
 

Abounder

Banned
I mean, again, they were up by anywhere from 7 to 10 points in these states. Why would you go there when there are states that everything says are within 3 points or even closer? Why would you not try and flip these states instead of visiting the states that all polling said was a lock?

Because it's a fundamental part of campaigning to rally, and the MI primary/Brexit (populism trends) should have been huge slaps in the face.

Flipping states is great, skipping states like WI not so much. Also why not work at least as hard as your novice opponent or better yet your predecessors as well? Polls are good but not putting in the work ethic fails everyone especially at the local level, which to be fair is a problem for the collapsing Dem party as a whole.
 

Yoda

Member
The people who came out normally don't come out at all. This is also assuming that economics are their driving issue, which might not be true given this is the first time they've all shown up like this.

That could be true, but there is also the argument that people don't think either candidate will help their interests at all and simply abstain from voting (they'd probably say something along the lines of "waste of time"). Either way, if Trump kisses the ring of the supply siders (from a policy perspective, he'd obviously never do such in the realm of public discourse), perhaps the voters will come to the realization he's a snake oil salesman.
 

Crocodile

Member
Calling Clinton lazy reminds me of all those times Gaffers like to call developers "lazy" when really bad games could more often be blamed on some combination of poor strategy or resource use (internal) and outside fuckery (external). Trying to separate Trump from other Republicans to peel away Republican voters was a mistake. Not doing more to mitigate the damage in rural counties she wasn't going to win anyway was a mistake. Spending so much time on debate prep over campaigning was a mistake because crushing those debates didn't matter enough. Those are fair critiques. Calling her a lazy bitch (the bitch is implied) is not.

If you think Elizabeth Warren is the answer to 2020 then you probably live in a giant liberal bubble somewhere in a deep blue state.

Did someone in here say that? Who are you replying to (or just making a statement in general)?

I mean, again, they were up by anywhere from 7 to 10 points in these states. Why would you go there when there are states that everything says are within 3 points or even closer? Why would you not try and flip these states instead of visiting the states that all polling said was a lock?

Yeah in hindsight she needed to spend some time in those states but if all your data is saying "you got this" I can understand trying to expand the map. If her data had been on point (it wasn't unfortunately), then it would have been an error on her part to not to try to put say Arizona in play. Like I find it really had to believe people when they say "oh of course I would have campaigned in those states even though all private and public data said I was up 10 points. You'd be dumb not too!". Nah son. You can say that now but no way would you have said then. That would be like saying "she needed to campaign more in New York". It also ignores that she was all over PA and FL which she both lost.
 

Debirudog

Member
Dems definitely had more offices, but Hillary & Co. were no-shows that didn't learn, listen, or rally unlike their predecessors, and Hillary was outworked by the rookie Trump on both the trail and media presence. Obama's criticism is also about the party as a whole, and Hillary definitely had other flaws before we knew how lazy she would become (populism, FBI, all time low ratings, Russia, etc). In the end the only thing you can rely on is your own effort, and the work ethic for the veteran Hillary leaves a lot to be desired. There's just no worthwhile excuse for things like skipping Wisconsin especially with the examples Obama/Bill set.
No, it's not just effort. Trump had no effort in the ground level and his GOTV efforts in Florida were abysmal. It's much easier to just get up there on the stage and shout a bunch of nasty bullshit like inciting hatred and outright lies-whilst not getting punished for it. Trump had no effort in Florida and yet he singlehandedly won it thanks to the panhandle.

As others have said before, It's not just laziness because she worked on States she thought she need to focus on instead. I don't even want to argue about the media coverage because quite frankly, Trump was giving them what they want regarding controversy and they're only interests in Hillary was scandals.
 

etrain911

Member
Can we just do a poll of Obama supporters who don't like Hillary? That seems like it would be helpful to understand what happened but it hasn't happened yet.

Like:

"If you voted for Obama in 2012, but did not vote for Hillary in 2016, rank these reasons as to why you didn't vote for Hillary Clinton.

-Email scandal
-Benghazi scandal
-Thought Hillary was a racist
-Thought Hillary was too elitist
-Thought Hillary was too aggressive in foreign policy
-Thought that Donald Trump would do a good job protecting Social Security and Medicare
-Thought Hillary Clinton was a liar
-Thought Hillary Clinton was too economically liberal
-Thought Hillary Clinton was too economically conservative
-Thought Donald Trump would improve economic performance"


... This seems like it would allow us to understand what happened instead of just wildly guessing.

As someone who conducts research, these types of polls in particular are extremely vulnerable to self-reporting biases. The best way to poll about most controversial topics: (politics, sex lives, etc.) is to ask around the issue rather than directly diving into the heart of it, or to poll about concrete facts like one's income bracket which is an objective fact with no stigma inherently attached to it (if you ask someone what socioeconomic status they fall in, people are more biased to identify themselves as higher than they actually are). You might have a scale for racial attitudes and biases, one that measures socio-economic anxiety, maybe one that measures perceptions of disillusionment with an establishment or an institution, and one that measures how conservative or liberal one's opinions are, but you wouldn't directly ask "Are you conservative or liberal?" or "Do you perceive Hillary as being too economically conservative?" etc.
 

Ecotic

Member
I mean, again, they were up by anywhere from 7 to 10 points in these states. Why would you go there when there are states that everything says are within 3 points or even closer? Why would you not try and flip these states instead of visiting the states that all polling said was a lock?
Michigan I might could understand, but Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are scarcely more blue than the national average in recent elections. You had experts in those states like Ed Rendell saying before the election that Pennsylvania was a 2 point race. There were a lot of 'abundance of caution' reasons to treat those states as much closer than polls suggest. I was here in this thread pulling my hair out every time her campaign stopped advertising in states that polling said was safe but past elections said were not.
 

Debirudog

Member
Michigan I might could understand, but Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are scarcely more blue than the national average in recent elections. You had experts in those states like Ed Rendell saying before the election that Pennsylvania was a 2 point race. There were a lot of 'abundance of caution' reasons to treat those states as much closer than polls suggest. I was here in this thread pulling my hair out every time her campaign stopped advertising in states that polling said was safe but past elections said were not.

Well, as Crocodile mentioned, she actually did campaign hard on PA. Still lost.

I really do believe Trump was able to capitalize on angry white folks that Clinton wasn't able to.
 

Abounder

Banned
No, it's not just effort. Trump had no effort in the ground level and his GOTV efforts in Florida were abysmal. It's much easier to just get up there on the stage and shout a bunch of nasty bullshit like inciting hatred and outright lies-whilst not getting punished for it. Trump had no effort in Florida and yet he singlehandedly won it thanks to the panhandle.

As others have said before, It's not just laziness because she worked on States she thought she need to focus on instead. I don't even want to argue about the media coverage because quite frankly, Trump was giving them what they want regarding controversy and they're only interests in Hillary was scandals.

Calling Clinton lazy reminds me of all those times Gaffers like to call developers "lazy" when really bad games could more often be blamed on some combination of poor strategy or resource use (internal) and outside fuckery (external). Trying to separate Trump from other Republicans to peel away Republican voters was a mistake. Not doing more to mitigate the damage in rural counties she wasn't going to win anyway was a mistake. Spending so much time on debate prep over campaigning was a mistake because crushing those debates didn't matter enough. Those are fair critiques. Calling her a lazy bitch (the bitch is implied) is not.

Hillary did a lot of prep work and coasted after that. She needed to campaign as much as her rookie rival or better yet her predecessors did, both of which she objectively failed at when it comes to rallies and media - fundamental areas of politics 101. Don't get me wrong I entirely agree there were more factors than that, but there's no worthwhile excuse for letting your novice opponent outwork you or skipping a state like WI, and her work ethic is rightly criticized by Obama and others in this Trumpbound America.
 

Debirudog

Member
The same Obama who Bill criticized of not focusing on the South too much during 2012 but hey, when you win, it's much easier to say shit...
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Do we know how much a campaign rally in a given state is worth in terms of actual votes?

There's just too many different things going on to say. How big is the campaign? How good is local media coverage of the campaign? How good is national media coverage of the campaign? Which demographic mostly attends the campaign? Who is headlining the campaign? I doubt you could really boil it down to a precise number.

Typical thinking is that campaign rallies do little because national media didn't usually bother covering local campaign rallies, and candidates normally only rallied in certain key swing districts. But for some reason, rallies received a lot more press attention in 2016 than was the norm (for both Clinton and Trump rallies), so the effect of a rally could have been much bigger than previous years.
 
If you think Elizabeth Warren is the answer to 2020 then you probably live in a giant liberal bubble somewhere in a deep blue state.

I'm from MA and even I know that Warren is not the nominee we want for 2020. Her place is in the Senate

Can we just do a poll of Obama supporters who don't like Hillary? That seems like it would be helpful to understand what happened but it hasn't happened yet.

Like:

"If you voted for Obama in 2012, but did not vote for Hillary in 2016, rank these reasons as to why you didn't vote for Hillary Clinton.

-Email scandal
-Benghazi scandal
-Thought Hillary was a racist
-Thought Hillary was too elitist
-Thought Hillary was too aggressive in foreign policy
-Thought that Donald Trump would do a good job protecting Social Security and Medicare
-Thought Hillary Clinton was a liar
-Thought Hillary Clinton was too economically liberal
-Thought Hillary Clinton was too economically conservative
-Thought Donald Trump would improve economic performance"


... This seems like it would allow us to understand what happened instead of just wildly guessing.

You also should expect the answer of "she never tried to help out my problems" and understand that while TECHNICALLY they are probably wrong, it was absolutely the failure of Hillary's campaign to not focus on 2 or 3 Policy plans that can appeal to many depending on how you frame it.

In all my time Canvassing and Phone Banking for the Democrats this year, the common theme I found among undecided voters was that they didn't know about Hillary's plans, but were VERY receptive to her policy proposals when I told them about them.

Hell I even managed to turn people that were leaning towards Trump into Hillary supporters when I found out which policy issues actually mattered to them and explained Hillary's plans.
 

royalan

Member
I mean, again, they were up by anywhere from 7 to 10 points in these states. Why would you go there when there are states that everything says are within 3 points or even closer? Why would you not try and flip these states instead of visiting the states that all polling said was a lock?

Exactly.

I have plenty of criticisms of the Clinton campaign, but that they were lazy or arrogant isn't one of them. Not when their actions are completely justified by practically ALL THE DATA. If you're at Clinton HQ, and you're looking at the data, the CLEAR consensus, the states that ended up costing Hillary the election are all safe. Their campaign was built around that data. The data was wrong.

Which is why I blame Comey. Without the Comey letter, Hillary is President. There's no doubt at this point the effect that letter, and the last minute blitz of extremely negative press it caused had on Hillary.

Still, in the future, data can not be used to ignore the word on the ground. Despite what all the data said, there was reason to be worried in PA. It just didn't feel in-the-bag like it has in previous elections, and a lot of campaign people in the state I've spoken to felt the same. Even though I fully believe it was the Comey letter that depressed would-be Clinton voters here, if that hadn't happen Hillary would have won by a margin way too close for comfort for Dems in a state that's supposed to be reliably blue.
 
Trump's tweets today are just weird. No world ending threats or anything, but just kind of confusing?

The United Nations has such great potential but right now it is just a club for people to get together, talk and have a good time. So sad!

President Obama said that he thinks he would have won against me. He should say that but I say NO WAY! - jobs leaving, ISIS, OCare, etc.
 

Yoda

Member
I mean, again, they were up by anywhere from 7 to 10 points in these states. Why would you go there when there are states that everything says are within 3 points or even closer? Why would you not try and flip these states instead of visiting the states that all polling said was a lock?

Well, as this election (and previous elections have shown) polling isn't an precise science. The polling had Mitt Romney as a close loss or win in 2012 and Obama won in a landslide. The error goes in both ways, and people on the ground warned the HRC camp that there were issues in the rust belt, and were subsequently ignored:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...llary-fucking-ignored-us-in-swing-states.html
 
Trump's tweets today are just weird. No world ending threats or anything, but just kind of confusing?
Oh yeah, those millions of new private sector jobs and millions more Americans with health insurance would have been huge negatives against him, lol.

No idea what he means with the UN. Weren't we on the verge of walking out of the place a few days ago? Also, the thought of Trump complaining about a meeting place for rich and powerful people to get together and gossip is hilarious.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Oh yeah, those millions of new private sector jobs and millions more Americans with health insurance would have been huge negatives against him, lol.

No idea what he means with the UN. Weren't we on the verge of walking out of the place a few days ago? Also, the thought of Trump complaining about a meeting place for rich and powerful people to get together and gossip is hilarious.

Apparently telling Israel to stop encroaching on Palestinian's homes equals shooting the shit and not doing anything good.
 
Well, as this election (and previous elections have shown) polling isn't an precise science. The polling had Mitt Romney as a close loss or win in 2012 and Obama won in a landslide. The error goes in both ways, and people on the ground warned the HRC camp that there were issues in the rust belt, and were subsequently ignored:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...llary-fucking-ignored-us-in-swing-states.html

2012 was not a landslide. I don't call it a landslide unless the lead is at least Obama 2008 levels.
 
I just don't know, man.

PP_16.08.17_politicsLede-2.png
 
I just don't know, man.

PP_16.08.17_politicsLede-2.png

I hope you aren't dismissing the fact that while MOST Trump voters are the deplorables we know and hate, some of them really have been struggling and in need of help.

Plus the comparison is to the 1960s back when there was still a huge middle class as a result of efforts by FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, and LBJ.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Well, as this election (and previous elections have shown) polling isn't an precise science. The polling had Mitt Romney as a close loss or win in 2012 and Obama won in a landslide. The error goes in both ways, and people on the ground warned the HRC camp that there were issues in the rust belt, and were subsequently ignored:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...llary-fucking-ignored-us-in-swing-states.html

Except everyone always says that. Everyone always wants more money into their state so they can maybe flip another local race or two. Right now everyone's still busy throwing each other under the bus so they can keep their jobs for next cycle.
 
I hope you aren't dismissing the fact that while MOST Trump voters are the deplorables we know and hate, some of them really have been struggling and in need of help.

Plus the comparison is to the 1960s back when there was still a huge middle class as a result of efforts by FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, and LBJ.

I mean, okay, but their lives are still better than in 1965.

Income growth for the bottom 50% didn't stop until 1980 and there's been a few other things that are better than 1965 (like most things for disabled or non-white or female or LGBT individuals...)

Like... There hasn't been the threat of nuclear Holocaust for the last 25 years, that's a pretty big improvement over 1965.

It's just weird for people to be willing to say "yes, that time period when no one other than non-LGBT, white, fully abled men had rights and there was a legitimate threat of me dying in nuclear hellfire each day would be better for people like me."
 
Actual question: Why do these people have, and continue to have children if they think life is worse now than it was for them and that it'll only get worse in the future? That's pretty cruel.

Forgive me as I laugh at the idea of people that have been truly suffering voting against their direct interests of improving their quality of life. Sadly this isn't new. No one is going to deny that millions of Americans have struggled in some ways keeping up with quality of life standards in the pats few decades as the economy has shifted away from manufacturing, but to seriously try to say that things are objectively worse than 50 years ago is silly.
 
Early vote is good stuff. But what strategy is there in skipping Wisconsin, flying home everynight, ignoring lessons from MI/Brexit, and letting the rookie Birther outwork you on both the trail and media? It goes against politics 101 and are hair-pulling mistakes for experienced campaigners like the Clintons, Hillary should have rivaled Obama's field offices/presence instead of ads and skipping states

A. The polls showed WI to be strong. There is a flaw in the data there that must be fixed.

B. You are going to criticize Hillary for flying back every night, but not Trump?

C. Lessons from MI/Brexit - I'm not sure what type of lessons from Brexit could be applied to the U.S. We're not the UK. The issue wasn't low turnout. As for the lesson of MI - the polls mostly resolved themselves to be working out fine. Everything got thrown to wack in the last week by Comey.

D. It was clear they were hoping an ad blitz would win the day for them combined with early voting. It's also clear that politics 101 doesn't mean jack shit as seen by Trump losing the debates resoundingly, and also ignoring the following conventional advice (point E).

E. Field Offices? You do know that Trump had less field offices than Romney? Link showing Trump had less offices than Romney. I think the case to be made is that field offices don't matter.

Democrats are hell bent on learning the wrong lessons from this election.
 
I mean, okay, but their lives are still better than in 1965.

Income growth for the bottom 50% didn't stop until 1980 and there's been a few other things that are better than 1965 (like most things for disabled or non-white or female or LGBT individuals...)

Like... There hasn't been the threat of nuclear Holocaust for the last 25 years, that's a pretty big improvement over 1965.

It's just weird for people to be willing to say "yes, that time period when no one other than non-LGBT, white, fully abled men had rights and there was a legitimate threat of me dying in nuclear hellfire each day would be better for people like me."

Well first off, very few people even remember what the 60s were like.

Second while you and I care about Civil Rights issues the most (and I suspect that like me you are a Democrat mostly because of the Civil Rights issues) your average voter, even non-deplorable ones, are going to care First and foremost about their own wellbeing in how they interpret the world.

To put it another way I'm going to give you a hypothetical:

Let's say that we have someone who, was doing fairly well from 2006-2015, then in 2016 they lost their job, their marriage, and their mental stability due to changes in their personal life. Do you really expect such a person to automatically say "Yes the world is better than it was 5 years ago" Or do you expect that their own experience is going to make them instead say "no the world is much worse than it was 5 years ago"?

Yes, OVERALL things have improved, but that doesn't mean that every life has indivually improved. Some people ended up losing their jobs and social circle and are left wondering what the fuck they are supposed to do.

Plus I have to wonder what the median income and minimum were in the 1960s when you adjust for inflation.

Actual question: Why do these people have, and continue to have children if they think life is worse now than it was for them and that it'll only get worse in the future? That's pretty cruel.

Forgive me as I laugh at the idea of people that have been truly suffering voting against their direct interests of improving their quality of life. Sadly this isn't new. No one is going to deny that millions of Americans have struggled in some ways keeping up with quality of life standards in the pats few decades as the economy has shifted away from manufacturing, but to seriously try to say that things are objectively worse than 50 years ago is silly.

But whether something is better or worse than it was before is usually a pretty subjective question.

And unless you are asking someone whose job involves something far bigger than themselves, how their own personal world has been doing is going to inevitably affect their answer to the question "Is the world better or worse?"
 
I'm from MA and even I know that Warren is not the nominee we want for 2020. Her place is in the Senate



You also should expect the answer of "she never tried to help out my problems" and understand that while TECHNICALLY they are probably wrong, it was absolutely the failure of Hillary's campaign to not focus on 2 or 3 Policy plans that can appeal to many depending on how you frame it.

In all my time Canvassing and Phone Banking for the Democrats this year, the common theme I found among undecided voters was that they didn't know about Hillary's plans, but were VERY receptive to her policy proposals when I told them about them.

Hell I even managed to turn people that were leaning towards Trump into Hillary supporters when I found out which policy issues actually mattered to them and explained Hillary's plans.

It's not like she didn't try to talk about her proposals:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/16/13972394/most-common-words-hillary-clinton-speech

It's just that no one really cared about anything about her other than emails or WALL STREET CORRUPTION. I've met Democrats who think issues like not jailing bankers are a more important concern than global warming.
 
It's not like she didn't try to talk about her proposals:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/16/13972394/most-common-words-hillary-clinton-speech

It's just that no one really cared about anything about her other than emails or WALL STREET CORRUPTION. I've met Democrats who think issues like not jailing bankers are a more important concern than global warming.

The way the media approached covering Hillary is definitely part of the problem, but it was also the failure of her campaign.

The way I always put it is Trump had the Wall and the Muslim ban, Bernie had the Free College and Free Healthcare, but the only people who knew what Hillary's equivalents were are political junkies like you and I.
 
The way the media approached covering Hillary is definitely part of the problem, but it was also the failure of her campaign.

The way I always put it is Trump had the Wall and the Muslim ban, Bernie had the Free College and Free Healthcare, but the only people who knew what Hillary's equivalents were are political junkies like you and I.

Honestly, I look at the Commander in Chief Forum as proof positive of the shit she had to face.

A discussion about foreign policy instead seemed to revolve entirely around... her emails.
 

M.D

Member
Report: Netanyahu to be investigated for bribery, fraud

Report: Netanyahu to be investigated for bribery, fraudPolice ask A-G to turn months-long secret inquiry into full-blown investigation as new documents come to light

Police recently received new documents as part of a secret inquiry that began almost nine months ago, Channel 2 reported. Based on thpse files police have already turned to Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit requesting that he allow them to open a full criminal investigation. The report stated that among the suspected offenses are bribe-taking and aggravated fraud.

Interesting, wonder what will come out of this.
This has been reported on for a while now.
 

mo60

Member
Hillary's campaign aside, I'm still wondering how the kind of people who ostensibly are anti-corporate, and anti-pipeline ended up as latecomers to the Trump bandwagon despite the Clinton campaign almost exclusively focusing on his glaring hypocrisy on the issue. Even so, I'm not sure if the message was the problem, or the messaging itself.

Most of her ads focused on offended reactions instead of openly belittling his message in the first place. Most people I heard listening to them thought the reactions were staged or feigned and were making Trump into some kind of imaginary asshole or something.

If the campaign had run an ad like "Trump says he's for America, but owns a fucking golf course in Dubai, ha ha" it would have been a easy hook and fairly hard for the viewer/listener to immediately refute, although it may have been open to accusations of anti-Arab bias. Bush belittled Kerry early in 2004 through humor, and the Democrats took the House in 2006 on the back on the Dubai Ports issue.

By the time the midterms roll around the Democrats don't have to pussyfoot around Russian involvement in the election process and can campaign on Putin's involvement in Afghanistan by then or something.

I do think hilary should have focused more on showing trump as an out of touch elitist that doesn't care about the people he is trying to attract to support him kinda similar to what the Alberta NDP did to the Alberta PC's in the 2015 Alberta provincial election even though that may have been not as effective if hilary was the messenger of this. The Alberta NDP had a lot of help from the Alberta PC's and the corporations/businesses that openly supported that party during the election campaign. They had a few simple messages like that getting a fairer price for Alberta oil resources, developing our resources in an environmental friendly way and etc.
 
It's not like she didn't try to talk about her proposals:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/16/13972394/most-common-words-hillary-clinton-speech

It's just that no one really cared about anything about her other than emails or WALL STREET CORRUPTION. I've met Democrats who think issues like not jailing bankers are a more important concern than global warming.
I think you need one central message, and revolve everything around that. The central message could be a policy point or an idea but it should have to resonate across. Change (1992 Clinton), Hope (Obama 08, 12), MAGA, challenge inequality (bernie), STAY THE COURSE (W 2004), New Day (reagan) etc. Hillary's Stronger Together/Stronger Middle Class unfortunately did not resonate strongly. For lack of messaging or her perception as a flawed messenger. Maybe people found it too pedestrian/boring, I dunno.
 
I really don't know if he was being serious, mmkay.

proxy.jpg


Not sure what it is, but this picture makes me think he is against killing all white people.

Well first off, very few people even remember what the 60s were like.

This is generally what depresses me, people think the past was way better than it was and this causes a lot of issues in general.
 
I know this would never happen, but I wish there was a rule in the OT that you can't post about the "failures of neoliberalism" unless you at least voted and did at least a little bit of work for a campaign.

Because you can't claim to care more about progress than "neoliberals" when a lot of those "neoliberals" did actual campaign work that does more for progressive causes than going on the internet to complain about "neoliberals".
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Serious question: do campaign ads matter post-Trump, or was Trump getting outspent about a billion-to-one and still winning unique to Trump.

Spending on campaign ads was never a 100% surefire predictor. There are even some examples of people spending like crazy against a no name with no money who lost because their attack ads ended up helping their opponent. Eric Cantor losing his primary is probably the biggest example of this.

I think probably the biggest problem hillary had was what her advertisements were about. They were very clearly directly aimed at never trump republicans offended by trump's actions, and it turns out those will vote republican no matter what.

Not that I saw that coming before the election myself. I never expected so many moderate republicans to be ok with pulling the lever for someone like trump and many probably wouldn't have without the Comey letter giving all those republicans an excuse to come home.

Still, this should be a lesson to never, ever go after the moderate republican vote again, if the Comey letter was all it took for them to vote for as terrible of a candidate as trump. Republicans are few but loyal, Democrats are numerous but not very loyal. Those unloyal democrats are where elections are decided.

And I say that including moderate democrats in the unloyal catagory. They actually might defect in situations where moderate republicans would not. But the farther to the right republicans go, the more room you have to pander to the stay home socialists in the party without worrying about moderate democrat defection.
 

mo60

Member
I think the "moderate Democrats" were the ones who swung in this election for Trump.

The republicans are probably going to move to the left in the next 4 to 10 years once their southern strategy finally collapses.I don't think the democrats should move to the far left but a bit more to the left to keep their moderate voters.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Well, Scott Walker has 41% approval and the Wisconsin Dems suck so maybe he'll run for governor I guess?

Ron Johnson also had a low 40s approval rating and Feingold got beat worse than Hillary.

This, by the way, was the most sickening senatorial election for me. I fucking hate Ron Johnson.
 
Well, Scott Walker has 41% approval and the Wisconsin Dems suck so maybe he'll run for governor I guess?
Wait until the midterm when everyone fucking decides they love him again.

But maybe two years of President Trump will put a fire under our ass.

Walker and Snyder are walking proof against the "liberal media" belief. Two right-wing assholes who got to where they are because the press rolls over for them whenever they can.
 

sphagnum

Banned
Perhaps we should complain endlessly about the conservative media and make the Democratic base hate them so that the media is afraid of reporting badly about Democrats.

Plus side: better coverage, possibly smearing of the word conservative

Negative side: Fake news ahoy!
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I think the "moderate Democrats" were the ones who swung in this election for Trump.

I guess in the sense that the trade issue rewrote electoral math to the advantage of Trump. Either way, I don't think that's enough to explain why democrats couldn't even outdo 2012 national vote percentage margins when we were lucky enough to have Donald fucking Trump as our opponent.

The moderate democrats I'm referring to would be the types that would vote Kasich or Rubio over Sanders. Ironically the voters that swung this election that you're talking about probably would be more likely to vote sanders in that situation.

I am aware of the theories that almost completely discount the importance of the linear left/right spectrum which I think is a very possible explination too, but I think the strategy I'm talking about fits either theory.
 
Perhaps we should complain endlessly about the conservative media and make the Democratic base hate them so that the media is afraid of reporting badly about Democrats.

Plus side: better coverage, possibly smearing of the word conservative

Negative side: Fake news ahoy!

Fundamentally, I think that the problem is that their base is better geared to accept and be energized by that kind of fake news; we'd pick up some support, and maybe slightly better coverage, but I suspect that the effect would be comparatively minimal.
 
Fundamentally, I think that the problem is that their base is better geared to accept and be energized by that kind of fake news; we'd pick up some support, and maybe slightly better coverage, but I suspect that the effect would be comparatively minimal.

If we have to stay factual to energize Democrats then we will remain factual.

But there is absolutely potential to start having Democratic surrogates start spending more time calling out the media for not covering actual policy issues.
 

Debirudog

Member
Perhaps we should complain endlessly about the conservative media and make the Democratic base hate them so that the media is afraid of reporting badly about Democrats.

Plus side: better coverage, possibly smearing of the word conservative

Negative side: Fake news ahoy!

Do you really need fake news when Trump scandals are pretty hideous themselves.
 
If we have to stay factual to energize Democrats then we will remain factual.

But there is absolutely potential to start having Democratic surrogates start spending more time calling out the media for not covering actual policy issues.

Yeah, but our side penalizes us from straying from "fair play." For god's sake, the DNC didn't even do much of anything, and it's still causing sore feelings. Liberals do not like it when you play rough. You start militantly attacking the media from the left you're going to find yourself essentially friendless like that.
 
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