D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Can we just do a poll of Obama supporters who don't like Hillary? That seems like it would be helpful to understand what happened but it hasn't happened yet.
Like:
"If you voted for Obama in 2012, but did not vote for Hillary in 2016, rank these reasons as to why you didn't vote for Hillary Clinton.
-Email scandal
-Benghazi scandal
-Thought Hillary was a racist
-Thought Hillary was too elitist
-Thought Hillary was too aggressive in foreign policy
-Thought that Donald Trump would do a good job protecting Social Security and Medicare
-Thought Hillary Clinton was a liar
-Thought Hillary Clinton was too economically liberal
-Thought Hillary Clinton was too economically conservative
-Thought Donald Trump would improve economic performance"
... This seems like it would allow us to understand what happened instead of just wildly guessing.
Asking people why they voted a particular way or would vote a particular way is often wildly inaccurate. People struggle to fit often relatively unique or nuanced or crazy opinions into the categories provided, people come up with ex post rationalizations to explain a gut feel, people don't want to reveal they're racist as fuck and come up with something else, and so on. You're normally better just doing a demographic study of who exactly switched, and then trying to fill in the meat of the details with a small number of qualitative rather than quantitative surveys - so find fifty of these people, and try and get one-to-one rather long interview style things with them.
YouGov often just straight up refuses "Why did you vote X way?" polls because frankly they suck and the company don't want to be associated with them.