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[Diablos]

Yeah, worrying about whether we need to follow the Bernie blueprint or whether we've properly addressed Hillary's deficiencies is a lot less important to me now that I've started to think harder about Trump as president. Everything is way more in his hands than ours.

I have written a more extensive version for my friends -- I'll take the liberty of posting it here:

Recipe for total Trump success in one term and done. Essentially this is a pump and dump scheme, so let's call it Trump and Dump:

1) Replace Janet Yellin (retiring next year) with a toady to politicize monetary policy, and time things to goose the economy in election years and let inflation hit his successor.

2) Total drilling deregulation gets you a short-term economic boost as well. No one cares about global warming, and the EPA won't be around to say anything.

3) Use your internal GOP political capital to convince Paul Ryan to allow an infrastructure bill and a nominal minimum wage increase or a miniscule family leave. These will be hugely popular and will earn you the status of wise bipartisan conciliator with the media and history.

4) Structure total safety net evisceration (Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, food stamps, etc.) so the pain doesn't hit until 2021.

5) Structure abolition of progressive taxation so deficits don't explode until 2021.

5) Collude with Roberts so that most divisive supreme court decisions don't hit (like Roe v. Wade getting shitcanned) until 2021, too.

6) Claim all economic growth is due to tax cuts and deregulation.

7) Scapegoat liberal traitors and protesters for literally everything, beginning with the terrible way they rudely disrupted your inauguration.

Boom. New Reagan, 4 years and out so you get the glory with none of the headaches of reelection, governing, actually delivering to the country, etc. All problems that get noticed after you leave are your successor's fault. Sure, your successor (probably Vice President Pence) is fucked, but what do you care? The GOP will still have the Supreme Court, get to gerrymander the House for the next decade, and have another Reagan to idolize. If I were his people, this is what I'd be selling him on.

Conversely, if he just governs by passing the Paul Ryan plan, and building the wall, we have nothing to worry about since it's unpopular and won't work, and party unity, messaging, and candidates will all work themselves out naturally.

Fuck. We're doomed.

 

[sphagnum]

Populism is historically inextricable from finding an "other" to vilify, weather that's a group inside your nation, xenophobia, or both. There was an excellent long piece someone linked me too that I'm trying to track down

What if there is a group who deserves to be vilified though.

Spoiler

the bourgeoisie

 

[bananas]

Yeah, worrying about whether we need to follow the Bernie blueprint or whether we've properly addressed Hillary's deficiencies is a lot less important to me now that I've started to think harder about Trump as president. Everything is way more in his hands than ours.

I have written a more extensive version for my friends -- I'll take the liberty of posting it here:

Recipe for total Trump success in one term and done. Essentially this is a pump and dump scheme, so let's call it Trump and Dump:

1) Replace Janet Yellin (retiring next year) with a toady to politicize monetary policy, and time things to goose the economy in election years and let inflation hit his successor.

2) Total drilling deregulation gets you a short-term economic boost as well. No one cares about global warming, and the EPA won't be around to say anything.

3) Use your internal GOP political capital to convince Paul Ryan to allow an infrastructure bill and a nominal minimum wage increase or a miniscule family leave. These will be hugely popular and will earn you the status of wise bipartisan conciliator with the media and history.

4) Structure total safety net evisceration (Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, food stamps, etc.) so the pain doesn't hit until 2021.

5) Structure abolition of progressive taxation so deficits don't explode until 2021.

5) Collude with Roberts so that most divisive supreme court decisions don't hit (like Roe v. Wade getting shitcanned) until 2021, too.

6) Claim all economic growth is due to tax cuts and deregulation.

7) Scapegoat liberal traitors and protesters for literally everything, beginning with the terrible way they rudely disrupted your inauguration.

Boom. New Reagan, 4 years and out so you get the glory with none of the headaches of reelection, governing, actually delivering to the country, etc. All problems that get noticed after you leave are your successor's fault. Sure, your successor (probably Vice President Pence) is fucked, but what do you care? The GOP will still have the Supreme Court, get to gerrymander the House for the next decade, and have another Reagan to idolize. If I were his people, this is what I'd be selling him on.

Conversely, if he just governs by passing the Paul Ryan plan, and building the wall, we have nothing to worry about since it's unpopular and won't work, and party unity, messaging, and candidates will all work themselves out naturally.

I don't think Trump is smart enough or gives enough of a shit to do this.

 

[The Technomancer]

I don't think Trump is smart enough or gives enough of a shit to do this.

No but people around him might just be

 

[dramatis]

Yellen is up in 2018. Sheeeeit. He could, you know, rig the economy for 2020.

Oh man I have been thinking through all the scenarios but if Trump actually governs like more of a pragmatist I don't see how Dems have a shot at anything in 4-8 years.

No, the people who flipped for him this election will flip against him if he governs like a pragmatist.

There's a piece in the NY Times about this factory in Indiana (maybe??? I forgot the location) that announced it was moving to Mexico. That factory's story became a flashpoint for Trump on the trail, where he said he would force companies to keep their factories here.

In other words, he has to break from free trade and go protectionist—which isn't pragmatic at all, because you have to be free trade to get ahead of other countries. Without free trade the prices of goods go up domestically. Without free trade you have less bargaining power in foreign relations. Without free trade, the companies with the lobbyists that are filling his administration are going to profit less.

In the end, you can promise those voters this and that, but globalization has changed the world. They're not going to get what they want no matter who they vote for.

 

[bananas]

No but people around him might just be

The people around him are all Republicans.

They're gonna get Trump to follow the Republican blueprint.

Until he realises it's not popular and his approval rating drops and goes to war with them.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The interconnected nature of economies is actually a stabilising force and something that gives minor reassurance that Trump won't be able to plunge the world into the end of days.

There's only so much China and the US can do to each other with their wellbeing so interdependent.

What if there is a group who deserves to be vilified though.

Spoiler

the bourgeoisie

Why did Kev deserve to do to be the villain?

 

[Diablos]

I don't think Trump is smart enough or gives enough of a shit to do this.

I think it's safe to say we shouldn't underestimate him. No one thought he would get this far. No one.

 

[dramatis]

6) Claim all economic growth is due to tax cuts and deregulation.

Conversely, if he just governs by passing the Paul Ryan plan, and building the wall, we have nothing to worry about since it's unpopular and won't work, and party unity, messaging, and candidates will all work themselves out naturally.

Here's the funny thing, which is that I think a few months back Ecotic (?) posted about how things are poised to go bad soon.

If the economy does fall into recession, Trump might have trouble digging out of 2020.

 

[thehypocrite]

Direct the rage at specific people and institutions because Trump just used to it to paint pretty much all the liberals across the country as elites.

I agree. This is better.

Was discussing this question with a classmate:

Do you think the time is right for a third party to make some inroads for 2018 or 2020?

Very unlikely. Electoral votes make this a rather difficult proposition. Folding into the DNC and working from change there is a more viable option.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Why did Kev deserve to do to be the villain?

It's not that he's a villain, per se, it's that he inherently has bourgeois privilege, that affords him all sorts of life opportunities that aren't afforded to the proletarian. People are more likely to treat him better, think well of him, he has longer life expectancy, earns more, less likely to be shot by the police or go to jail. And it seems to me pretty important he's aware of that privilege.

 

[Astaleview]

No but people around him might just be

Lol they not either. You could give them step by step instructions and they still fuck it up.

 

[sphagnum]

Why did Kev deserve to do to be the villain?

He didn't believe in TLG.

Edit: Also what Crab said way to ruin my joke

 

[shinra-bansho]

He didn't believe in TLG.

But it looks way crapper now. So he was basically right.

 

[sphagnum]

But it looks way crapper now. So he was basically right.

Well maybe if he had just believed

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm not middle class, wtf

 

[Pixieking]

I'm not middle class, wtf

You're upper class, then?

This is how the French Revolution started, I'm sure of it.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I'm not middle class, wtf

My response was tongue in cheek.

 

[Y2Kev]

W T F

 

[Frank the Great]

Was discussing this question with a classmate:

Do you think the time is right for a third party to make some inroads for 2018 or 2020?

Third parties will never be a thing in America. Ever. Ever ever ever. Our electoral system simply does not allow it.

The only path is to pick the closest existing party and try to change it.

 

[Officerrob]

Wtf Graham floating Cruz as a Supreme Court candidate?

What fucking planet did I suddenly get teleported to, Jesus Christ.

The planet where Graham doesn't want to have to deal with Cruz anymore

 

[Deleted member 231381]

W T F

.

 

[Y2Kev]

The middle class are far less likely to be aware of the privilege. Because they don't think they have any!

 

[Good Job Bob]

This is how thoroughly the DNC screwed up:

Marc Porter Magee
@marcportermagee
Democrats now control only 13 state legislatures (26%). If they lose 1 more they fall below the % needed to stop constitutional amendments.

 

[Suikoguy]

The middle class are far less likely to be aware of the privilege. Because they don't think they have any!

Wait, there is a lower class?

 

[Kusagari]

The planet where Graham doesn't want to have to deal with Cruz anymore

Exactly. Graham isn't saying this because he likes Cruz. He just never wants to deal with him again for the rest of his life.

 

[Pixieking]

This is how thoroughly the DNC screwed up:

Disgraceful. You disrespect everyone you're trying to help by being so useless.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

Yeah, worrying about whether we need to follow the Bernie blueprint or whether we've properly addressed Hillary's deficiencies is a lot less important to me now that I've started to think harder about Trump as president. Everything is way more in his hands than ours.

I have written a more extensive version for my friends -- I'll take the liberty of posting it here:

Recipe for total Trump success in one term and done. Essentially this is a pump and dump scheme, so let's call it Trump and Dump:

1) Replace Janet Yellin (retiring next year) with a toady to politicize monetary policy, and time things to goose the economy in election years and let inflation hit his successor.

2) Total drilling deregulation gets you a short-term economic boost as well. No one cares about global warming, and the EPA won't be around to say anything.

3) Use your internal GOP political capital to convince Paul Ryan to allow an infrastructure bill and a nominal minimum wage increase or a miniscule family leave. These will be hugely popular and will earn you the status of wise bipartisan conciliator with the media and history.

4) Structure total safety net evisceration (Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, food stamps, etc.) so the pain doesn't hit until 2021.

5) Structure abolition of progressive taxation so deficits don't explode until 2021.

5) Collude with Roberts so that most divisive supreme court decisions don't hit (like Roe v. Wade getting shitcanned) until 2021, too.

6) Claim all economic growth is due to tax cuts and deregulation.

7) Scapegoat liberal traitors and protesters for literally everything, beginning with the terrible way they rudely disrupted your inauguration.

Boom. New Reagan, 4 years and out so you get the glory with none of the headaches of reelection, governing, actually delivering to the country, etc. All problems that get noticed after you leave are your successor's fault. Sure, your successor (probably Vice President Pence) is fucked, but what do you care? The GOP will still have the Supreme Court, get to gerrymander the House for the next decade, and have another Reagan to idolize. If I were his people, this is what I'd be selling him on.

Conversely, if he just governs by passing the Paul Ryan plan, and building the wall, we have nothing to worry about since it's unpopular and won't work, and party unity, messaging, and candidates will all work themselves out naturally.

yup. And really most legislation will get good press now regardless as people are sick of obstruction

 

[Doc Holliday]

This is how thoroughly the DNC screwed up:

Oh man, I haven't even thought about this. 2018 is going to so important.

 

[kirblar]

This is how thoroughly the DNC screwed up:

Too bad the GOP doesn't want to get rid of the 22nd Amendment.

 

[VendettaRed07]

This is how thoroughly the DNC screwed up:

I hate to say it, but maybe on some level we needed this. The strategy democrats had been using the past years cannot continue. We can't just have the white house and literally nothing else

Even if Hillary had won, We still wouldn't have the senate.. and with her in the White House, just imagine how 2018 would have gone. They'd probably get 60+ senators and god knows what else. We'd probably be set up to be in way worse shape in 2020.

 

[JP_]

This is how thoroughly the DNC screwed up:

Welp, this is how they could overturn roe vs wade and gay marriage without having to wait for their supreme court picks to revisit it

 

[Servbot #42]

This is how thoroughly the DNC screwed up:

Didn't the second Bush wanted to ban gay mariage once through a constitutional amendment? If the democrats keep losing the gop could actually try to ban gay marriage by an amendment, in fact they would pass all kinds of amendments, that's fucked up,.

 

[Kusagari]

Jesus at that map.

If it wasn't for the Reid machine in NV we might already be there.

 

[Y2Kev]

Welp, this is how they could overturn roe vs wade and gay marriage without having to wait for their supreme court picks to revisit it

Two thirds of the senate and house? Come on guys we are not down to those levels.


Yet

 

[IggyChooChoo]

I don't think Trump is smart enough or gives enough of a shit to do this.

Right, only Trump's stupidity, or Paul Ryan's conviction to never allow deficits to happen can save us from this scenario.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I don't think they're that close. The Republicans need 38 state legislatures to ratify an amendment, but they're still 5 off. While I don't see the potential gains, at the moment at least, that's a bit scary. However, to begin the process, they need either two-thirds of the House and two-thirds of the Senate, which they don't have and are grossly unlikely to have; or absolute control of two-thirds of state governments (e.g. there can't be a Democratic governor to veto), and they only have have 23, needing 11 more. That's unreachable. I'd worry more about the Supreme Court than surprise amendments. It's why people who said Clinton always used realistic policy proposals were talking nonsense because she wanted to constitutionally amend Citizens United away (lol), something she could never do in a million years.

EDIT: my math bad sometimes

 

[nature boy]

This is how thoroughly the DNC screwed up:

Thanks Obama (seriously)

 

[shinra-bansho]

You give way too much power to tiny states.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

In 2008, Obama lost Washington County, 52 percent to 47 percent. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the county 60 percent to 35 percent. (It’s worth noting, too, that when offered a choice between Obama and Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary, working whites like those in Washington County went overwhelmingly for Clinton.)

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...hy_did_some_white_obama_voters_for_trump.html

I remember when Hillary was supposed to do better than Obama with WWC based on primary results

Bouie destroys here.

 

[Diablos]

This is how thoroughly the DNC screwed up:

Holy. Fucking. Shit. I didn't even think of this.

We are doomed. DOOMED. This is going to set us back half a century.

It starts at the local and state level. Nothing else matters. This is bigger than the Presidency.

 

[JP_]

Two thirds of the senate and house? Come on guys we are not down to those levels.


Yet

The other way to pass an amendment is by replacing the 2/3rd congress with a constitutional convention from 2/3rds of the states to make the proposal.

The Constitution provides that an amendment may be proposed either by the Congress with a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate or by a constitutional convention called for by two-thirds of the State legislatures.

https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/constitution

 

[kirblar]

Holy. Fucking. Shit.

We are doomed. DOOMED. This is going to set us back half a century.

This is why Dean needs to be involved. We need people who know how to set up the apparatus again that got dismantled.

 

[rokkerkory]

DNC you are super fail smh

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

This is how thoroughly the DNC screwed up:

Though I don't think enforcing super liberal purity tests is going to bring back those Southern states. That's the whole point of a coalition and why Dems in West Virginia do well locally just and how there's a Republican governor in Vermont.

 

[metalslimer]

I don't think they're that close. The Republicans need 34 state legislatures to ratify an amendment, but they're still 1 off. While I don't see the potential gains, at the moment at least, that's a bit scary. However, to begin the process, they need either two-thirds of the House and two-thirds of the Senate, which they don't have and are grossly unlikely to have; or absolute control of two-thirds of state governments (e.g. there can't be a Democratic governor to veto), and they only have have 23, needing 11 more. That's unreachable. I'd worry more about the Supreme Court than surprise amendments. It's why people who said Clinton always used realistic policy proposals were talking nonsense because she wanted to constitutionally amend Citizens United away (lol), something she could never do in a million years.

Well thank God I guess.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The other way to pass an amendment is by replacing the 2/3rd congress with 2/3rd state conventions to make the proposal.

Two thirds of states have to apply for the convention before it goes to state legislatures. To apply for a convention, you need to get it past the entire state government, including the governor. If Democrats have the governor, they can block applications for a state convention. So to change the constitution, Republicans need 34 state governments controlled outright. They have 23. Even if that happened, they need three-quarters of state legislatures, which is 38. They have 33. So I don't think that the maths is there.

 

[VendettaRed07]

I don't think they're that close. The Republicans need 34 state legislatures to ratify an amendment, but they're still 1 off. While I don't see the potential gains, at the moment at least, that's a bit scary. However, to begin the process, they need either two-thirds of the House and two-thirds of the Senate, which they don't have and are grossly unlikely to have; or absolute control of two-thirds of state governments (e.g. there can't be a Democratic governor to veto), and they only have have 23, needing 11 more. That's unreachable. I'd worry more about the Supreme Court than surprise amendments. It's why people who said Clinton always used realistic policy proposals were talking nonsense because she wanted to constitutionally amend Citizens United away (lol), something she could never do in a million years.

Yeah.. but really we could have lost even more state legislatures and they could possibly have gotten two thirds of the house and senate in 2018 with the typical horrible dem White House mid term with Hillary in there...We needed to wake up. Obama and Clinton had virtually zero strategy and now it's time we get one.

 

[IggyChooChoo]

Here's the funny thing, which is that I think a few months back Ecotic (?) posted about how things are poised to go bad soon.

If the economy does fall into recession, Trump might have trouble digging out of 2020.

If drill baby drill and loose monetary policy aren't enough, then I think the one person who could get Paul Ryan to pass a stimulus bill in the face of a recession would be a Republican president.

 

[Y2Kev]

Fear over a constitutional convention is madness. The entire constitution could be rewritten at one. Let's not worry about stuff that won't happen.