Believe me..I understand what you saying.I am a minority myself; but crunching the numbers, Democrats cannot win the presidency with just those first two groups..it is statistically impossible..much less state houses and governorships..something has to be done, or else the Democratic party is doomed to be a coastal only party
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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Believe me..I understand what you saying.I am a minority myself; but crunching the numbers, Democrats cannot win the presidency with just those first two groups..it is statistically impossible..much less state houses and governorships..something has to be done, or else the Democratic party is doomed to be a coastal only party
Ignored politics all weekend and lost myself in whatever forms of entertainment I could find ('Arrival' is very good btw, as is 'Westworld' and 'Planet Coaster' on the PC). Just getting caught up now so I'm sure this has been said a lot but I'll add my comment to the list:
How much does Barack Obama love this country?
I think there may not be numbers sufficient enough to measure it. Fighting hard against obstructionist assholes for 8 years who didn't even pretend to hide the fact that they would oppose him in every situation to ensure he doesn't get credit for anything. Now they elect the king of assholes who has spent years on a racist crusade to de-legitimize Obama's citizenship and calling him the "founder of ISIS."
Now Obama is treating this person who isn't worthy of holding the door open for him as a equal and helping prepare him to be President. I don't care if you disagree with everything Obama believes, if you're one of those people who thinks he hates America and is intentionally trying to destroy it (Rubio), you aren't paying attention. I can't imagine ever admiring anyone as much as I admire Barack Obama.
How much does Barack Obama love this country?
I think there may not be numbers sufficient enough to measure it. Fighting hard against obstructionist assholes for 8 years who didn't even pretend to hide the fact that they would oppose him in every situation to ensure he doesn't get credit for anything. Now they elect the king of assholes who has spent years on a racist crusade to de-legitimize Obama's citizenship and calling him the "founder of ISIS."
Now Obama is treating this person who isn't worthy of holding the door open for him as a equal and helping prepare him to be President. I don't care if you disagree with everything Obama believes, if you're one of those people who thinks he hates America and is intentionally trying to destroy it (Rubio), you aren't paying attention. I can't imagine ever admiring anyone as much as I admire Barack Obama.
There is no reason Dems cannot cobble together all three groups.
If anything we lost this election because Trump ran to the left of the Dem platform on trade.
I think we are spending a lot of time and effort trying to figure out how to recalibrate the party, when the reality is Republicans are never going to run someone with an economic package that resembles Trump (anti-Trade, pro-stimulus, protectionism).
We probably can't run anyone as business friendly as Hillary again, but we need someone that hits her platform and speaks more to blue-collar workers on economic terms.
If anything we lost this election because Trump ran to the left of the Dem platform on trade.
I think we are spending a lot of time and effort trying to figure out how to recalibrate the party, when the reality is Republicans are never going to run someone with an economic package that resembles Trump (anti-Trade, pro-stimulus, protectionism).
We probably can't run anyone as business friendly as Hillary again, but we need someone that hits her platform and speaks more to blue-collar workers on economic terms.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
People really need to see how bad the economy gets after a trade war before we decide to go in on "Trade is bad!"
Trade may be very popular in 2020, guys.
Trade may be very popular in 2020, guys.
IggyChooChoo
Member
The Supreme Court would certainly strike it, even if we could get state governments on board (and we can't).
Slight reapportionment at best after the census. We're talking a difference 1 vote for each of those states or less.
whyamihere
Banned
This is stark:
Let me do VA, operating that Hillary will win by 1.5 (though it'll probably be closer to 2):
Let me do VA, operating that Hillary will win by 1.5 (though it'll probably be closer to 2):
Doesn't really matter though does it? Next guy can come in and run against Trump saying he's the true anti-establishment. Saying Trump was always cozy with the Clintons and he surrounded himself with lobbyists in his administration, that he was always part of the elite and he lied to everyone.
Abinash117
Member
Anti-trade was part of the package. Many people are very much for helping businesses and they will likely continue that. I think Democrats needs to be careful about the assumptions . People need to ask themselves what it means to appeal to a declining electorate, but one that needs help. I think liberals are still making the same mistake of assuming what is best of a certain group. It is very possible that the white working class will oppose anything that has to do with increased welfare, even if that is something they do actually want.
Agree. Clinton's team didn't see the weakness in the rust belt and Clinton as a candidate couldnt connect with them.
The failures of this presidential run can easily be corrected, too bad about the SC. The failure of the party across the board in every state is what needs immediate correction.
It's too early to plan for 2020. Build the party in every state and our message will come organically from the bottom up.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Wow, VA became a blue state incredibly fast. That's crazy
But on the flip side, Ohio probably looks pretty awful in the other direction, right?
Agreed 100%
I grew up in rural Missouri and yes a lot of these people vote Republican and will always vote Republican but many are not like that at all. They go for the candidate that feels more authentic and has a better message for people like them. Hillary was just a particularly bad candidate for this demographic whether it was justified or not.
A lot of these folks that voted for Trump voted for Barack Obama. That tells me they can be swayed by a better candidate and that they swing like a pendulum whenever the incumbent party fails to deliver on their promises (which will almost certainly happen under Trump).
Obama struck a good pro-trade while working with those hurt by trade balance.
Hillary had a similar platform, but never spoke about it mostly because the Orange Menace would just scream about NAFTA and TPP and Wallstreet speeches.
Even without the private server, Clinton committed unforced errors with the speeches. She knew and her team knew the speeches would play badly. Sigh.
The handling of the server was truly atrocious. A immediate mea culpa would have been much better.
What makes you think there will be a press to ask anyone any questions?
It will probably be Newsmax, RT, and Breitbart publishing press releases from the White House.
Are you trying to bait us? I'm not going in there.
Damn, foiled again!
I'm not entirely certain I should've posted it, but it's a worthwhile article. So *shrugs*
Weird feeling being too afraid to post a new thread Gaming Side, and yet I'll post that Newsweek thread in OT.
I hope you're wrong
I agree. I think he's smart and shrewd, which I actually really like. The dissonance between that reality and the purity stuff annoys me. And I get that there's a big power grab going on within the party amidst this huge vacuum, so it's understandable... just hope he'll be willing to put up a united front against Trump.
OMG In all the stress and worry I've felt after the elections, I forgot Alex Jones was all in on Trump.
Damn, the fact that he even received a single bit of validation is personally insulting to me. That con-artist deserves nothing but failure.
Certainly the political landscape will be very different in 2020. Besides the trade stuff, in the next 4 years we might see the US left on the sidelines watching other countries making the whole "Green Economy" thing work for them. Which was something Hillary definitely talked about during the debates.
Frankly I resent this alt-history narrative that Hillary didn't talk about these economic issues because she totally did. But it was all crowded out by Donald Trump and his bullshit.
I think in 4 years if the Dems took the exact same platform, and had it presented by someone who can pierce through Donald Trump's bullshit and get the message out, people would love it.
whyamihere
Banned
Based on where we are, here are the PVIs relative from a HRC+1.5 pop vote win from 2012 to 2016. Bolded states that got (relatively) more D:
AZ: R+12.9% -> R+5.4%
CO: D+2% -> D+3%
FL: R+3.02% -> R+2.77%
GA: R+11.72% -> R+6.8%
IA: D+1.91% -> R+11.1% (HOLY SHIT)
ME: D+11.39% -> D+1.2%
MI: D+5.6% -> R+1.25%
MN: D+3.8% -> EVEN
NC: R+5.94 -> R+5.3%
NH: D+1.7% -> R+1.3%
OH: R+0.92% -> R+10.0% (HOLY SHIT)
PA: D+1.45% -> R+2.58%
VA: D+0.02% -> D+3.5%
WI: D+3.04% -> R+2.5%
For fun:
CA: D+19.22% -> D+26.9% (HOLY SHIT, and still counting so this could get bigger)
TX: R+19.69% -> R+10.6%
NY: D+24.28% -> D+19.6%
AZ: R+12.9% -> R+5.4%
CO: D+2% -> D+3%
FL: R+3.02% -> R+2.77%
GA: R+11.72% -> R+6.8%
IA: D+1.91% -> R+11.1% (HOLY SHIT)
ME: D+11.39% -> D+1.2%
MI: D+5.6% -> R+1.25%
MN: D+3.8% -> EVEN
NC: R+5.94 -> R+5.3%
NH: D+1.7% -> R+1.3%
OH: R+0.92% -> R+10.0% (HOLY SHIT)
PA: D+1.45% -> R+2.58%
VA: D+0.02% -> D+3.5%
WI: D+3.04% -> R+2.5%
For fun:
CA: D+19.22% -> D+26.9% (HOLY SHIT, and still counting so this could get bigger)
TX: R+19.69% -> R+10.6%
NY: D+24.28% -> D+19.6%
whyamihere
Banned
FUCK Gwen Ifill died.
Yup, I think you're right. And god, that's going to kill Hillary... But make her proud, too - that her stance on many issues is objectively the right one (at least as it stands now).
Christ, my heart really goes out to her in a lot of ways.
Texas is closer than Iowa. What a world we live in.
AZ/GA/TX is the new map. Really, I think the biggest failure of the lack of economic message is that it left the college-educated cold every bit as much as the WWC. The college educated white vote has been trending blue for a while iirc. Keep eating away at those margins + strong minority turnout and those states become the new NC/VA/CO type states.
AZ/GA/TX is the new map. Really, I think the biggest failure of the lack of economic message is that it left the college-educated cold every bit as much as the WWC. The college educated white vote has been trending blue for a while iirc. Keep eating away at those margins + strong minority turnout and those states become the new NC/VA/CO type states.
balladofwindfishes
Member
FL is turning blue so painfully slow
Those ME and MN numbers are concerning
Those ME and MN numbers are concerning
What? No! I loved her, she was awesome!
The rust belt has been trending away from the Dems during the last few cycles and parts of the South and Southwest has slowly been trending their way. If the party is smart they'll take the gains made in those states and build on them. The can and will flip eventually, just like how eventually the rust belt will be out of reach.
Jones claims Trump called him after the election too. He said, Listen, Alex, I just talked to the kings and queens of the world, world leaders, you name it. But he said, It doesnt matter, I wanted to talk to you to thank your audience, and Ill be on in the next few weeks to thank them.
I can't see how we recover from this in 4 years. Especially if Trump is even remotely successful. The more I think about it it's like the party apparatus was a skeleton post-2014 with an extremely gifted President saving way too much face for them. The DNC failed Obama which is a shame because he did so much for them.
What this tells me is the rust belt is really slipping away whereas demographic shifts, while taking place, are not moving fast enough in the sun belt to benefit Democrats. This is really bad news. We still need the rust belt. Not all of it, but certainly PA andI MI at least. Otherwise we're boned until 2024 I fear
a few days ago someone here (Totakeke?) said, that sanders might not fully grasp the devotion his fanbase has to him. but the more i read, the more obvious it becomes that he does indeed know how to play them to his advance. if he gets control of the party, i just hope that it won't be at the expenses of minority issues. seeing as he double and triples down on the financial anxiety stuff, i'm not so sure though.
QuiteWhittle
Member
The Midwest is about to be gone forever, bar the great state of Chicago and etc.
Which was basically the Dem's biggest fear. We all worried about it a little bit during the general and spent maybe a page talking about it, but right now the Dems need to invest down there and try to flip it. It's trending the right way and with enough work they can pull it off, not all at once and not right away, but they can do it. Ignoring those gains to focus exclusively on regaining the WWC vote is like putting a bandaid on a bullet wound.
Looking at those numbers I still think it's too early to make a definitive call on the shifting away of various states (excluding the ones that begab shifting prior to this election). There's a lot of evidence that this election was the result of the particular candidates and campaign match-ups more than anything. I wouldn't put it past voters in the rust belt to swing back if/when Trump doesn't deliver. Especially if there's an economic downturn.
Of course dems absolutely should not relent on attacking Georgia, Texas and Arizona.
Of course dems absolutely should not relent on attacking Georgia, Texas and Arizona.
whyamihere
Banned
Here's other ones that stuck out:
Rhode Island: D+23.6% -> D+13.8%
North Dakota: R+23.52 -> R+37.8%
Rhode Island: D+23.6% -> D+13.8%
North Dakota: R+23.52 -> R+37.8%
balladofwindfishes
Member
Yep. Ohio shifting more than 10 points is too ridiculous for it to be more than just the specific candidates. That's extremely rapid change over 4 years. Which makes it seem like it's not moving that fast and this year was just because the candidates did or didn't appeal to those states specifically.
hydragonwarrior
Member
My biggest concern is having the party united again. The fracture that happened at the democratic primary should not happen again given how fragile the democrat vote is.
The problem is it completely fucks with your political calculus. You can't go into 2020 knowing for sure if you can rely on certain voters. They now have to spread themselves really thin and try to best calculate where they need to double down and abandon the rest. The blue wall is gone.
Going by margins alone I think PA and WI are their best bets. But you can't know for sure. There are so many unknowns that you can't work into your calculus by just looking at this data and knocking on doors.
whyamihere
Banned
I agree with this, to an extent.
IggyChooChoo
Member
I'm increasingly frightened by McConnell's insight on how denying bipartisan cover to bills made Obama a "divisive" president. Because the flip side of that insight is that giving Trump some bipartisan victories will make him a unifying president. So McConnell may actually want a public-private infrastructure bill, and modest family leave and minimum wage bills. Because he knows they're small potatoes in the grand scheme of rolling back the New Deal and progressive taxation. And he knows some Dems would vote for those bills. It's all down to Paul Ryan the anti-government true believer, so I'm not confident.
whyamihere
Banned
Well, Republicans had to do it to this year and still won. Nothing is forever in politics. We can't take WI and WI for granted. And we also can't keep our eyes off AZ and GA and NC and FL. We have to work this all in concert.
If the losing group throws tantrums again I don't know how we can prevent that.
For 2008 we probably have Hillary to thank for mending that divide real quick, but obviously we cannot rely on every losing candidate to be so conciliatory.
It does suck.
But my main interest is the good of the country, not whether Trump is popular. It might suck and we have to eat it, but its the best approach.
I think you can argue that Trump helped speed up the realignment that was already going on, but we have seen it in prior elections as well.
It probably comes down to making sure whoever runs in the primary has skin in keeping the party together. I doubt they let an independent try running in the primary again, at least not in the near future.
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