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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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My biggest concern is having the party united again. The fracture that happened at the democratic primary should not happen again given how fragile the democrat vote is.

How do we even do that if Bernie and Bernie successors insist on tearing down the party during the primary once ever 4 years? Even if there is 0 favoritism (unlikely), the accusation of it seems like a winning play.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Well, Republicans had to do it to this year and still won. Nothing is forever in politics. We can't take WI and WI for granted. And we also can't keep our eyes off AZ and GA and NC and FL. We have to work this all in concert.
Hence the rebuilding and refocusing of the DNC which has already begun with multiple people throwing their hat into the ring. The next four years are going to be some of the most fascinating in political history.
 

dramatis

Member
Why the Chinese Are Laughing at the United States This was in the sidebar of the Newsweek article.
In June 1989, Chinese students and laborers by the thousands occupied Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, the central square in the capital city of the most populous nation in the world. A giant portrait of Mao Zedong glowered at them from across the street. There was an ineffable sense back then that history was in the air everywhere—that powerful forces were moving across the world, and that they were moving in the right direction.

Mikhail Gorbachev had by then come to power in the Soviet Union, and in the summer of 1989 he would allow Moscow’s client states in Eastern Europe to go their own way politically: toward democracy. That’s what the students in Tiananmen wanted too. Gorbachev had visited Beijing in mid-May amid the tumult, when it was legitimate to wonder whether the Communists in China were long for the world. By the time he visited, the demonstrators in the square had erected what would become one of the iconic images from that time: a replica of the Statue of Liberty known as “Goddess of Liberty.” It stood tall throughout the demonstrations until June 4, when the troops moved in, killing thousands and destroying the statue.

Obviously, the United States and what it represented mattered to those students and workers in those days, as well as to the untold millions who supported what was happening in the square. The students risked their lives erecting that statue, because nearly 30 years ago the U.S. stood for something many in that country wanted.
This is sad.
 
It does suck.

But my main interest is the good of the country, not whether Trump is popular. It might suck and we have to eat it, but its the best approach.
It wouldn't be for the good of the country if it gives him the political capital to gut the rest of the New Deal and great society programs, though.
 
From what I've read bannon will have just as much influence on trump as preibus since he will report to trump directly (unlike previous chief strategists who report to the chief of staff) and that essentially there will be two "chief of staff", is that true?
 

jtb

Banned
I'll say this about Bernie: he was a very unique case and had to be treated extra delicately by HRC in the primary. He was an independent, so the traditional party apparatuses that he would fear didn't really apply to him. Very Trump-ian in that regard.

Most typical candidates won't behave in that way because they'll follow more traditional incentive structures.

I don't mean to shit on Bernie because I don't think this was deliberate on his part, but merely an overarching failure that all dems were complicit in: he never really made the pro-HRC case either, just a very anti-Trump one.
 
Do you guys have any good liberal podcasts? or live radio shows that are on every morning?

I am pretty sick of my local stuff here in Utah.
 
From what I've read bannon will have just as much influence on trump as preibus since he will report to trump directly (unlike previous chief strategists who report to the chief of staff) and that essentially there will be two "chief of staff", is that true?

The campaign statement referred to them as "equal partners". As I posted earlier, I suspect Bannon will have more of Trump's ear, while Priebus will be the one that tries to keep the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress working together as smoothly as possible.
 

Pixieking

Banned
I posted Crab's Racist A/B write-up on my Facebook, and got a couple of interesting responses. Thought I'd post them here, to further discussion/thoughts. (Though I'm sleepy, so, um, I may zonk out soon.)


Friend 1:

If I may, l'd like add Racist C, who, like Racist B, is not, at core, racist. They operate from a place of absolute antipathy; not malicious intent, because they don't care enough to actively dislike, let alone hate. This may come from a simple lack of exposure to a world other than their own, or from other factors. It may be that these folks are easier to reach than any other kind, by the simple expedient of broadening their horizons - It's a lot harder to justify voting for a party of bigots when your children play with your Iranian neighbours' children, and everybody on the street goes to the barbecues hosted by the gay Eastern European couple.

Like the B's, something needs to be done about the C's. But calling everybody A's will get us nowhere - real changing of minds happens between people, not between angry Twitter avatars.


Me:

Yeah, that makes sense, actually.

If we assume the white working class are mostly B's and C's, then it's down to communicating with them in the heartland. I think educating voters on what can be done about jobs is a start - go into rural and ex-factory towns and level with them about what training can be given, what jobs they can look forward to, and what their communities get out of it. The main problem is that they need to respect the people who are talking to them, and realise they're not being sold out, they're just being sold a different future than they want (and what the Republicans sold them).

If the WWC is becoming a whole new identity group (equivalent to, say, Catholics), then they can still be Democrat voters, especially if the Republicans fall short on their promises. Jobs and economy isn't something one party owns (not like, say, abortion), and it's motivated by emotion as much as fact - "What can the Dems do for me and my kids?" is as emotional a question as it is factual. It's just the Republicans don't care about lying, and can use that to their advantage. Get them to realise that they and their kids are being sold short by the Republicans. and you can grab them, and help them. The B's might find it hard to break out of the conditioning with regards to race, but the C's won't give a monkeys, as long as life gets better. If they see their kids playing with Syrian refugee children and having fun, you've won.


Friend 1:
Nobody seemed to notice Hilary's policy of "tax the millionaires to fund retraining for former factory workers", sadly.

Although I did see an article that suggests the WWC in the US isn't really the poor WWC, it's the proverbial Squeezed Middle, whose B-type racism is fueled by a perception that the poor are getting a free ride because of benefits.


Friend 2:
One illuminating thing about adding group C is it can remind you that this isn't just a working class thing (which is super important because my god, the slide into classism in these discussions is so, so easy). To be a member of group B whilst privileged on the capital axis is deeply self centred, but C? C is *easy*. The fact that you have the money to travel doesn't mean you'll do it (and you can easily end up travelling surrounded by other rich white folks anyway). Going to University doesn't necessarily mean you'll be exposed to a lot of demographics (just think how very white our social group was - I'm sure that's part of the reason so much of this shit grows from geek circles). And especially outside of really multicultural areas like London, it's easy to just live in super gentrified areas and think nothing of it.
 
http://www.attn.com/stories/12768/f...r&utm_medium=direct-share&utm_campaign=shares

This i legit thing is something dems need to take seriously NOW. Get ready for this when Trump is interrogated and starts on the legislative agenda.

Every issue make a few calls (even to people who have no chance) as someone who works in an office. They can move them, as its pretty much a poll for them to know people care and are motiviated to do something (they're likely to vote) also call from your parents district.
 

jtb

Banned
Do you guys have any good liberal podcasts? or live radio shows that are on every morning?

I am pretty sick of my local stuff here in Utah.

usual fare over here: Keeping it 1600, Political Gabfest, Axe Files, occasionally the New Yorker politics podcast.
 
Do you guys have any good liberal podcasts? or live radio shows that are on every morning?

I am pretty sick of my local stuff here in Utah.
I am consistently surprised by how many PoliGAF members are from Utah. Pleasantly, considering I am also from here, but surprised nonetheless.
 
If the losing group throws tantrums again I don't know how we can prevent that.

For 2008 we probably have Hillary to thank for mending that divide real quick, but obviously we cannot rely on every losing candidate to be so conciliatory.

We can make the primary process more transparent without tilting it too far in favour of outsiders. Like, if they were all open primaries (no caucuses) and ditched superdelegates I still think Clinton would have won, but you wouldn't have had so many people decide the process was rigged or what have you. I think that's very doable.

Super delegates aren't ever going to over turn the will of the people by the looks of it, so dump them.

The only thing that looks difficult to resolve is the super pacs thing, but that'll hopefully sort itself out with the candidates.
 

Pixieking

Banned
Do you guys have any good liberal podcasts? or live radio shows that are on every morning?

I am pretty sick of my local stuff here in Utah.

This American Life?

If the losing group throws tantrums again I don't know how we can prevent that.

For 2008 we probably have Hillary to thank for mending that divide real quick, but obviously we cannot rely on every losing candidate to be so conciliatory.

Quick shout-out for Alter Egos: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and the Twilight Struggle Over American Power. More anecdotal than objective, but a very interesting read on the Hillary/Barack power dynamic from 2008 to 2012. And the part about her drinking cocktails with the press corp in some South American country before meeting a Chinese diplomat is one of the reasons I love Hillary. :D
 

studyguy

Member
Infowars Podcast, Rush Limbaugh Podcast, Hannity Radio.
I only listen to the most trusted sources on news thanks.

I actually didn't even know Alex Jones had a podcast till a second ago, the irony is that his podcast image is a fist smashing the word "Lies" lol
 

akinkcl

Neo Member
I can't see how we recover from this in 4 years. Especially if Trump is even remotely successful. The more I think about it it's like the party apparatus was a skeleton post-2014 with an extremely gifted President saving way too much face for them. The DNC failed Obama which is a shame because he did so much for them.


What this tells me is the rust belt is really slipping away whereas demographic shifts, while taking place, are not moving fast enough in the sun belt to benefit Democrats. This is really bad news. We still need the rust belt. Not all of it, but certainly PA andI MI at least. Otherwise we're boned until 2024 I fear
Exactly what I am saying... Dems simply cannot win without the Rust Belt..It is impossible; and these numbers also explain why Teachout and Feingold lost; there was a massive republican wave in both New York and Wisconsin.with a better Presidental candidate, I fully believe they would have won
 

jtb

Banned
It's time to do away with Superdelegates. honestly, a bunch of the Sanders camp probably cared more about that -- and the perception of "rigged" and all that fun stuff -- than anything else. they're meaningless. the establishment clings to it because it gives them some ceremonial role, but any party that overthrows the will of its voters no longer has any reason to exist. see: the GOP and Trump, the electoral college voting for Trump, etc.

would have been such an easy olive branch to extend too.
 
In this interview trump reaffirms his intent to appoint justices to the supreme court who would vote to overturn roe v wade, and yet also says that the issue of gay marriage is settled because it went to the courts and he is fine with that
 

chadskin

Member
AFP: #EXCLUSIVE US national security chief says allies should expect US to uphold treaty commitments
AFP: #EXCLUSIVE US national security chief says TPP "a challenge," warns failure would leave a vacuum
AFP: #EXCLUSIVE US national security chief says engagement with China has shown "real value"

But what does he know, given Trump's unpredictability.
 
We can make the primary process more transparent without tilting it too far in favour of outsiders. Like, if they were all open primaries (no caucuses) and ditched superdelegates I still think Clinton would have won, but you wouldn't have had so many people decide the process was rigged or what have you. I think that's very doable.

Super delegates aren't ever going to over turn the will of the people by the looks of it, so dump them.

The only thing that looks difficult to resolve is the super pacs thing, but that'll hopefully sort itself out with the candidates.

The issue with open primaries is you get people who aren't with the party voting in someone that might not actually represent the most of the actual Democrats. It could be a reverse situation of Bernie/Clinton deal. Not wanting to vote for a person you don't think represents you.

The important thing I believe is get people to become part of the process and become Democrats. Some of those voters who tend to be young( but not all the time) don't appear to be dedicated to the party and are not very reliable voters. Work should be done to make the reliable Democratic voters.
 
In this interview trump reaffirms his intent to appoint justices to the supreme court who would vote to overturn roe v wade, and yet also says that the issue of gay marriage is settled because it went to the courts and he is fine with that

And unless you anyone knows of any anti-abortion, pro-marriage equality justices, the latter statement is meaningless.
 

Totakeke

Member
a few days ago someone here (Totakeke?) said, that sanders might not fully grasp the devotion his fanbase has to him. but the more i read, the more obvious it becomes that he does indeed know how to play them to his advance. if he gets control of the party, i just hope that it won't be at the expenses of minority issues. seeing as he double and triples down on the financial anxiety stuff, i'm not so sure though.

Yeah, most likely. If Bernie wants to use the Trump blueprint than that's precisely what we should fight against. It's not about left vs. right, it's about right vs. wrong.
 

Odrion

Banned
I can't see how we recover from this in 4 years. Especially if Trump is even remotely successful. The more I think about it it's like the party apparatus was a skeleton post-2014 with an extremely gifted President saving way too much face for them. The DNC failed Obama which is a shame because he did so much for them.
didn't obama defund the dnc and replace dean with emanuel rahm?
 
Exactly what I am saying... Dems simply cannot win without the Rust Belt..It is impossible; and these numbers also explain why Teachout and Feingold lost; there was a massive republican wave in both New York and Wisconsin.with a better Presidental candidate, I fully believe they would have won

Winning Florida, NC, Georgia and Arizona would put her well over 270.

Florida and NC are well within reach (and together + 2016 map are the win). Arizona could be with a better candidate. Georgia will take a little longer.

If Trump can flip Ohio and Iowa 10+ points since 2012, there's no reason we can't flip Arizona, NC, Georgia, maybe even Texas by that much with the right candidate.
 

Joeytj

Banned
In this interview trump reaffirms his intent to appoint justices to the supreme court who would vote to overturn roe v wade, and yet also says that the issue of gay marriage is settled because it went to the courts and he is fine with that

He's a moron, of course. Any judge who would overturn Roe V Wade would also likely be in favor of overturning gay marriage. The only reason it probably won't happen, is because it would be such a mess, and dangerous precedent for many other rights.

In theory, the same can be said of the reproductive rights, they've been there for almost 40 years now, but who knows.
 
If the losing group throws tantrums again I don't know how we can prevent that.

For 2008 we probably have Hillary to thank for mending that divide real quick, but obviously we cannot rely on every losing candidate to be so conciliatory.

The biggest post Dem primary tantrum ever was thanks to the antagonistic campaign Hillary ran in 2008. This revisionism aint cute.
 

Mr.Mike

Member
Wait, can the Supreme Court just out of nowhere overturn a previous ruling? Or would there have to be a new case where they rule in a way that contradicts (and presumably overrules) a previous ruling?
 
Wait, can the Supreme Court just out of nowhere overturn a previous ruling? Or would there have to be a new case where they rule in a way that contradicts (and presumably overrules) a previous ruling?

They would have to hear a new case. It won't take long for that to happen with all of these states restricting access to abortion via ridiculous requirements.
 
They don't generally overturn cases, and Abortion is too high profile. They're not in the business of taking away rights they've previously granted.

Which is why, even something like Citizen's United, would be difficult to repeal.
 

mo60

Member
Based on where we are, here are the PVIs relative from a HRC+1.5 pop vote win from 2012 to 2016. Bolded states that got (relatively) more D:

AZ: R+12.9% -> R+5.4%
CO: D+2% -> D+3%
FL: R+3.02% -> R+2.77%
GA: R+11.72% -> R+6.8%
IA: D+1.91% -> R+11.1% (HOLY SHIT)
ME: D+11.39% -> D+1.2%
MI: D+5.6% -> R+1.25%
MN: D+3.8% -> EVEN
NC: R+5.94 -> R+5.3%
NH: D+1.7% -> R+1.3%
OH: R+0.92% -> R+10.0% (HOLY SHIT)
PA: D+1.45% -> R+2.58%
VA: D+0.02% -> D+3.5%
WI: D+3.04% -> R+2.5%

For fun:

CA: D+19.22% -> D+26.9% (HOLY SHIT, and still counting so this could get bigger)
TX: R+19.69% -> R+10.6%
NY: D+24.28% -> D+19.6%

Hilary is probably going to win CA by like 30 points once all of the votes are counted.
 

Pixieking

Banned
They would have to hear a new case. It won't take long for that to happen with all of these states restricting access to abortion via ridiculous requirements.

I've mentioned this a couple of times, but maybe not in the past couple of days? RBG future-proofed SCOTUS's last judgment with regards to stupid abortion restrictions.

Targeted Regulation of Abortion Providers laws like H. B. 2 that ‘do little or nothing for health, but rather strew impediments to abortion,’ Planned Parenthood of Wis., 806 F. 3d, at 921, cannot survive judicial inspection.

States are going to have to think of far better reasons to deny abortions to women. And then they have to go through the court system. And lower circuit courts have liberal Obama-appointed judges.
 

Chichikov

Member
Wait, can the Supreme Court just out of nowhere overturn a previous ruling? Or would there have to be a new case where they rule in a way that contradicts (and presumably overrules) a previous ruling?
They can do whatever they want, there is no binding framework for judicial review.
I don't think it's terribly likely with the current court but it could happen.
 
The biggest post Dem primary tantrum ever was thanks to the antagonistic campaign Hillary ran in 2008. This revisionism aint cute.

Not to mention the fact that Hillary fanatics were smearing Bernie supporters well after Bernie had pledged to support Clinton this time around.

Sanders fans were vehemently against Clinton because they feared and expected this eventuality. I'm not going to be preached to about what not to do next time around by people that got us into this goddamned catastrophe one "YAS QUEEN" at a time.
 
The biggest post Dem primary tantrum ever was thanks to the antagonistic campaign Hillary ran in 2008. This revisionism aint cute.

Nah, I was around 2008, it wasn't as bad as it is now. I supported Obama over Clinton.

The one doing revisionism is you.


Not to mention the fact that Hillary fanatics were smearing Bernie supporters well after Bernie had pledged to support Clinton this time around.

People were vehemently against Clinton because they feared and expected this eventuality. I'm not going to be preached to about what not to do next time around by people that got us into this goddamned catastrophe one "YAS QUEEN" at a time.

Can you fucking stop with the "YAAAAS QUEEN" mockery? That shit's the kind of shit we expect from Trump supporters.

This is why there's no unity.
 
Nah, I was around 2008, it wasn't as bad as it is now. I supported Obama over Clinton.

The one doing revisionism is you.




Can you fucking stop with the "YAAAAS QUEEN" mockery? That shit's the kind of shit we expect from Trump supporters.

This is why there's no unity.

I'm not unifying behind people that just cost us the most critical fucking election in a generation by forcing a candidate on us that everyone thought was safe but nobody actually liked. We unified behind your shit candidate and we're paying the price now. Never again.

Own the embarrassing rhetoric that was spewed on this forum and that'll be a start towards reconciliation.
 
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