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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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R

Rubenov

Member
Once again, Rubio is so far behind in Florida it won't even be close.

Brown Cuban boy has appeal in Miami, but the rest of Florida Repubs are not "moderate" or "educated" enough to go for him.
 
S

shem935

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
you aint seen nothing yet. Tuesday will bring the floodgates



Why is your state so republican for so long?

-No D elected to U.S Senate since 1932. State senate been R since 1916. State House been R for all but 3 terms in 100 years
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Combination of not largely populated cities and lots of farmers who tend to vote R. Those demographics haven't changed in a long time right?

Edit: The typical map of red state with pockets of blue at major cities is accurate. Just our biggest city is Wichita with 390k.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Macho Madness said:
Less. The point is to show that the primary is not necessarily the general.
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True, that's how I read it too.

But still it doesn't exactly make me feel certain that Trump won't win. I'm worried about there maybe being too many racist liberals swapping sides, and undecided idiots picking off of personality and "trustworthiness" instead of policies.

Trump is not going to walk back his racist statements, but he's still going to move to the center in his own way.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
shem935 said:
Combination of not largely populated cities and lots of farmers who tend to vote R. Those demographics haven't changed in a long time right?
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most likely not. Looks like it been Red since inception.

The Kansas Republican Party has dominated Kansas politics since Kansas statehood in 1861. Kansas has had 45 governors: 32 Republicans, 11 Democrats and 2 Populists. Kansas has had 33 US Senators: 28 Republicans, 3 Democrats, and 2 Populists. The last time a Democrat was elected to the U.S. Senate from Kansas was in 1932. Since 1960, the Republicans have won 102 of 129 Congressional elections, an 80% win rate; have won all 20 U.S. Senate elections; and have won 69 of 90 statewide elections, a 77% win rate. The Democrats have won control of the Kansas Senate only in the 1912 election and control of the Kansas House only three times in the 1912, 1976, and 1990 elections. Since the 1968 election Kansas has consistently voted for the Republican Presidential candidate and since 1860 has voted for the Republican presidential candidate 20 times, the Democrat six times and the Populist candidate once.

In February 2011, the Gallup Survey classified Kansas as one of only five "solidly Republican" states.[7] After the 2012 elections, Kansas was one of only five states with all its federal and statewide elected officials from the Republican Party. Currently, of the 1.74 million registered voters in Kansas, about 45% registered as members of the Republican Party, about 25% registered as members of the Democratic Party, and about 30% registered as unaffiliated with any political party.[8]
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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
thepotatoman said:
True, that's how I read it too.

But still it doesn't exactly make me feel certain that Trump won't win. I'm worried about there maybe being too many racist liberals swapping sides, and undecided idiots picking off of personality and "trustworthiness" instead of policies.

Trump is not going to walk back his racist statements, but he's still going to move to the center in his own way.
Click to expand...

I mean, we say "he'll move back center!" a lot, but he nearly has the nomination wrapped up and he moved even further to the extreme right today by flirting with the Klan.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Trump will probably ramp up his economic populism once the general hits.

I don't think that will be enough to sway any minorities to his side.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean, we say "he'll move back center!" a lot, but he nearly has the nomination wrapped up and he moved even further to the extreme right today by flirting with the Klan.
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Nate Silver and Nate Cohn are both right that this thing isn't technically over until March 15th. I don't see why he would risk pivoting before than.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
The NYT series on Libya is actually a very interesting read, I'm currently on part three.

But I don't know if anyone else will actually bother reading it.

This, while something of an attempt to shift blame, still rings a bit true.
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I mean, I think it's completely true.

As long as you view the United States as responsible for the smooth functioning of Middle Eastern states, we will always be fucking up. There's nothing we can do to make another country have a healthy government. Colonization just doesn't work that way!

We should intervene in response to genocides, sure, but if there's one lesson we should have learned by now, it's that we can't just intervene in response to every revolution or every dictator. It's not just that we don't have the right -- we don't have the power.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Bowdz said:
Jesus. Tuesday's going to be a bloodbath on both sides. This whole election can be summed up by Game of Thrones and increasingly, every primary/debate is the equivalent of the Red Wedding except they keep getting more and more brutal.
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but she was up by 23 pts- Lawrence O'Donnell
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Kusagari said:
Trump will probably ramp up his economic populism once the general hits.

I don't think that will be enough to sway any minorities to his side.
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It'll just be enough for more white people to rationalize their votes for him. A lot of them already tout the "America needs a great businessman" talking point.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
YES.
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Roland_Gunner said:
Last Suffolk poll of MA is out and they've got Clinton up 50 / 42

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos

Edit: Beaten :(
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YAASSSSSSSSSSSSSS

The last MN poll which is over a month old had Hillary up by 34. I know that that state is going to be close as all hell.

I refuse to be super hopeful, but if Hillary keeps Bernie to only winning Vermont and two others, that would be HUGE.

Since MSNBC has decided Mass is the key to the nomination, I want her to crush it there.

Hold me, CCS.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
shinra-bansho said:
This was from a few pages ago, but I thought it worth noting the US has the 4th lowest tax burden as a %GDP in the OECD, about 25% of the OECD average. Lower than countries upon which the idea of strong social programs are being idealised.

So I imagine that would change need to change a lot more than is being promised.
This doesn't just apply to healthcare, but generally social program provision by the government.

And I fully recognise that the US has the highest spending on healthcare per capita in the OECD, with about as much private as public spending. The former is basically direct spending on one's own care though.

Some would pay more than they are, some would pay less. But conceptually, a strong public healthcare system requires people to be willing to spend on others.

I think a lot of people in this thread would be perfectly fine with that. But I'm less certain the US populous is actually that keen on spending on others instead of directly on themselves.
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I wish more people understood that illness has a detrimental impact on the economy and social institutions. Not to be so partisan but Republicans have such tunnel vision they can't see the broader implications. Same issue with the minimum wage.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
hawk2025 said:
The "The amount of Hillary hate" thread over on OT has broken me.


I couldn't even do this shit for more than a week, and I'm amazed that you guys can. It's utterly exhausting.
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I actually replied in that thread a couple of times, but I've decided to just stop following it. Reading that many angry posts is just not worth the aggravation and anything I would want to say at this point has been said.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
shinra-bansho said:
I doubt she endorses until after Super Tuesday, when Clinton has an insurmountable lead and probably wins MA.

It would ruin her brand.
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I agree with this.

Warren and Sanders are so much closer ideologically that it makes no sense for Warren to anger a fired up progressive base and surrender much of her influence now as opposed to staying neutral and being used to greater effect to bring young progressives back into the fold in the general.
 
C

CCS

Banned
adam387 said:
YAASSSSSSSSSSSSSS

CCS hold me!

The last MN poll which is over a month old had Hillary up by 34. I know that that state is going to be close as all hell.

I refuse to be super hopeful, but if Hillary keeps Bernie to only winning Vermont and two others, that would be HUGE.

Since MSNBC has decided Mass is the key to the nomination, I want her to crush it there.

Hold me, CCS.
Click to expand...

If she does win everywhere but Vermont, I'm going to hold you so hard Adam. So damn hard.
 
S

shem935

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
most likely not. Looks like it been Red since inception.
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Hmm. I don't know then. Probably just the culture of it being a red state makes it self fulfilling at some point. In the list of red states that would eventually flip I would probably put Kansas near the bottom if not at it.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
CCS said:
If she does win everywhere but Vermont, I'm going to hold you so hard Adam. So damn hard.
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And if she wins Vermont? Should I send out wedding invitations XD

Warren will not endorse before the primaries are over. Had it been in the cards, I think Hillary would have had her endorse a few months ago when things weren't looking great. Warren does it now, it's just stomping on the corpse of Bernie's campaign.
 
C

CCS

Banned
adam387 said:
And if she wins Vermont? Should I send out wedding invitations XD

Warren will not endorse before the primaries are over. Had it been in the cards, I think Hillary would have had her endorse a few months ago when things weren't looking great. Warren does it now, it's just stomping on the corpse of Bernie's campaign.
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If she wins Vermont I will propose to you in the chat :p

Yeah, much as I'd love Warren to endorse, I don't see her picking a side in this race.
 
E

Effect

Member
Really thinking the republicans are likely going have to blow this up. Or they really should to save this going forward. Disavow Trump, run someone else (with the understanding they aren't expected to win but do as much as they can to make sure Trump doesn't win) and put the full force behind this new person and all the down the ballot (what's most important to them) runners. Educate people as best as they can to split their ticket when it comes to voting. This way they maybe keep the Senate and House, don't support an outright racist, etc. After that they work to salvage the party (forced now instead of doing it willingly like the chance they had before). At that point they'll have pretty much fractured the GOP but in a way that drives certain elements they do not want away and can actually work on building it or something new back up.
 
C

CCS

Banned
adam387 said:
Well, after the ceremonial circle jerk we can break off into groups, kinda like a caucus. I'm sure we'll all be excited enough to maintain, considering one state set us off like that!
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This circlejerk never ends. We'll make PoliGAF gay again, gayer than can possibly be imagined. It's gonna be YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
RustyNails said:
Trump is a cakewalk in GE, but those stats are meaningless to be honest. Voting eligible is not the same as likely voters. Hillary and Bernie also probably have such numbers on the dem side.
Click to expand...

The relevant question is that Hillary stomps Trump in every general election poll. There's only like two in the past month that show Trump ahead at all.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Good lord, not only is Trump going to kill the GOP for 2016, he's also destroying the future of two of their top prospects. Here's how Republicans perception of Cruz has crashed this year:

CcVoPF0WEAAip7f.jpg
 
R

Rubenov

Member
Effect said:
Really thinking the republicans are likely going have to blow this up. Or they really should to save this going forward. Disavow Trump, run someone else (with the understanding they aren't expected to win but do as much as they can to make sure Trump doesn't win) and put the full force behind this new person and all the down the ballot (what's most important to them) runners. Educate people as best as they can to split their ticket when it comes to voting. This way they maybe keep the Senate and House, don't support an outright racist, etc. After that they work to salvage the party (forced now instead of doing it willingly like the chance they had before). At that point they'll have pretty much fractured the GOP but in a way that drives certain elements they do not want away and can actually work on building it or something new back up.
Click to expand...

10% chance of happening.

90% chance: They start falling in line and endorsing Trump, with a few holdouts like Graham and McCain.
 
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