shinra-bansho
Member
Eh. They should just link to an article then, or use something other than twitter.
Posting images of articles without a link is super annoying.
Posting images of articles without a link is super annoying.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
- Thread starter Makai
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Jeb Bush called, he want's his answer back
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I feel like the media is just trying anything they can at this point. Of all the things Trump has said, him not condemning David Duke quickly and strongly enough is the big controversy? Just doesn't make sense.
User 463088
Banned
RuPaul has been able to bridge the gap between politics and drag that I've been trying to for months.
https://twitter.com/RuPaul/status/703983387053166592/photo/1
SLAY Mama Ru. SLAY.
https://twitter.com/RuPaul/status/703983387053166592/photo/1
SLAY Mama Ru. SLAY.
The last thing I saw them say in like December was that he was always incredibly unlikely and now he is slightly likelier but still incredibly unlikely. I think most of those guys are going to say there was always a small chance he would win and God rolled the dice.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I mean "I don't want to condemn a group without looking into them" when you're talking about the Klan is clearly white supremacist winking. Even Trump fans can figure that one out.
Basileus777
Member
They'll say Nate's methods were right and that no one could have predicted this. Despite plenty of people having predicted it as early as last Summer.
Was it this bad during the height of angst between Hillary and Obama back in 2008?
Macho Madness
Member
Yes.
worse
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...-half-of-clintons-supporters-wont-back-obama/
that's just indiana but rinse and repeat across the states
e: just thought I should point out that Obama ultimately won Indiana
I carry the scars of that battle 8 years ago.
First result on Google:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...-half-of-clintons-supporters-wont-back-obama/
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
Makes sense. I hate and so don't often use Twitter, so I'm unfamiliar.
Roland_Gunner
Member
This is also a higher number than we've seen in other polls. Either you just more 'intense' support online or Sanders' supporters are struggling with the fact that Clinton's going to win.
RastaMentality
Banned
I'd pay to see cartoon soldier and diablos react to the 2000 election live over the month after the results.
User 463088
Banned
On behalf of Hillary 08 supporters, I apologize for anyone who had to deal with one of us who said they wouldn't support Obama. I know PUMAs didn't really exist, but the very concept pisses me off.
That's one of my favorite features of the chat.
My fingers are crossed that someday Scalia's Ghost hangs-out with us on Super Tuesday; he can tell us what he really thinks, and maybe he can give us a sneak-peek at the afterlife!
too bad they were teenagers or kids who could not vote?????
Tom is probably the only one here who voted at the time.
shinra-bansho
Member
In an article about Trump impugning the integrity of the judge presiding over his case for being Latino.
Classic.
Yes, I believe the polling average back in 2008 had it at 38% of Hillary supporters saying they wouldn't vote for President Obama. Given the mentioned poll saying 33% of Sanders supporters wouldn't vote for Secretary Clinton I want to point out that another poll from last week had it at 17% so it's probably somewhere between those two numbers atm. At the end of the day I'd expect at least 9/10 of his supporters to vote for the Secretary.
It's gonna be real embarrassing when he doesn't win a thing on Super Tuesday and subsequently loses Florida.
The salt will be glorious.
Box of Kittens
Banned
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/703714652098846720
Yeah, pretty much.
I do think that Silver can have valuable things to say, but he needs to realize that being given a platform has given him the illusion that his opinions are particularly important, i.e., he's turned into a pundit. He also needs to at least explore the possibility that his model of the primaries was wrong. Now I'm actually sympathetic to the idea that people often misunderstand probabilistic forecasts, and in particular that if a good model says that something is unlikely to happen, well, you should still expect it to happen sometimes. That having been said, if the first time you deploy your model it whiffs big time, you need to accept the idea that the model could be wrong and it wasn't just bad luck.
Honestly though, I'm not sure he has the humility to do either.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
2008 featured a once in a generation candidate, and Hillary Clinton. The race energized the democrat party, plus it happened two years after an unpopular president spurred major midterm victories for democrats. The stage was set for a historic primary.
There is very little excitement or interest in 2016's race because everyone knows who is going to win, and the field was/is incredibly weak.
In short I wouldn't extrapolate low primary turnout to the general election for democrats. It's going to be a huge election. I can't wait until convention week. Assuming Trump is the nominee, imagine the disaster the RNC will be - from the prime time speakers to everything else. Compared to Bill Clinton, President Obama, and Hillary Clinton at the DNC.
There is very little excitement or interest in 2016's race because everyone knows who is going to win, and the field was/is incredibly weak.
In short I wouldn't extrapolate low primary turnout to the general election for democrats. It's going to be a huge election. I can't wait until convention week. Assuming Trump is the nominee, imagine the disaster the RNC will be - from the prime time speakers to everything else. Compared to Bill Clinton, President Obama, and Hillary Clinton at the DNC.
User 463088
Banned
Notice, Rubio never said he would win the delegates, just that he'd get them. I wonder if the GOP thinks it would be better to steal this thing with Rubio and ride the shit storm of Trump than to just let Trump burn the whole thing down.
I don't care. I just want to see Jeb endorse Trump.
I was 17.
Also now that I see the data compared to 2008 I think we'll be okay in November. We better be.
Macho Madness
Member
Well there's absolutely no reason to worry about it now
Basileus777
Member
I have the feeling that we won't see or hear from Jeb for another 9 months.
Wow, Nate.
Officerrob
Banned
I want Republicans to try and steal it from Trump at the convention just so I can see Trump's reaction
even the brokered convention fantasy doesn't work out. The pluarlity of the delegates there will be trump diehards and the majority will probably be people at least willing to consider trump. The delegates are not controlled by the RNC
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Trump voters (id say all of them are republican) would both disown the GOP and not even vote, or trump would run 3rd party and it would be a sure in for Hillary.
That's actually the easiest way for us to win a lot in congress and presidency.
Trump's on track to win this outright, sorry.
Manmademan
Member
by the time bush dropped out, his support was in the low single digits anyway. what do you expect to happen when someone polling at 4% or so nationally gives up?
nothing at all. Might as well expect Fiorina and Santorum dropping out to swing the race.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
You're not being entirely fair here. That's generally what happens in this thread regarding Nate Silver.
Five Thirty Eight is all about looking at data and being skeptical. Nate has been questioning for a while whether Trump has a low ceiling. That's different than saying he'll lose once the field narrows. His thinking now is more that Trump has a solid floor with the potential to expand.
People take any possibility he mentions as his belief. When new information arises he reconsiders his position. I'm not saying his rationale is purely based on data, but it's more so than most.
Macho Madness
Member
What's funny is this "drop out to consolidate" strategy was what Scott Walker proposed when he dropped out. That was on September 21st. He may have been right.
But it's too late now.
But it's too late now.
User 463088
Banned
Ya, I don't have the numbers on how it would work, unless the establishment stacks the delegate selection process or something. I don't know how the GOP picks their actual delegates, though.
Oh, I believe they're fucked either way. No question. However, I think Trump is more toxic to the brand than just 2016. I mean, we still throw Palin in their face 8 years later. We could run on the party of Trump for another cycle. I think that the GOP is going to go into prevent defense mode. If they feel they'll lose it all, they'll cut off an arm or a leg to save the whole.
Did it cause you physical pain to realize Scott Walker may have been right on something, or was that just me?
shinra-bansho
Member
I can't see a scenario where these people endorse Trump, or at least where they do it unambiguously and without so much obvious hesitance that it's barely an endorsement.
VendettaRed07
Member
It was so bad that the fact that Obama turned around, made her Secretary of State and now they are so close they are practically Rey and Finn from Star Wars kinda opened my eyes as to what kind of person you have to be in order to be a politician. It's like real life WWE. I don't doubt for a second even if Bernie goes scorched earth on Hillary as she pulls away that they won't make up and be buddy buddy in the general. She'll probably even offer him a cabinate position if he wants it (don't think he will)
Ziltoidia 9
Member
It still find it amazing that Trump tea-partied the tea party. Both cruz and rubio came to fame during the TPs highths.
Bernie will be a thorn in Hillary's side in the senate. She should get him out and into the cabinet
Yeah, Bill Clinton was my first vote. Imagine how geeked I was when Louisiana went blue. My uncles were extra-bitter a few weeks later at Thanksgiving; they largely blamed women. In a way, it was hysterical.
The great thing: we'll know beforehand if something's up because the RNC's rules committee meets one week before the convention itself begins. If Trump has enough delegates to win nomination during the first floor vote and the committee suddenly changes the rules so that delegates are no longer bound to honor state votes on the first ballot, we'll know in advance that the convention will go bonkers with foul play.
The great thing: we'll know beforehand if something's up because the RNC's rules committee meets one week before the convention itself begins. If Trump has enough delegates to win nomination during the first floor vote and the committee suddenly changes the rules so that delegates are no longer bound to honor state votes on the first ballot, we'll know in advance that the convention will go bonkers with foul play.
Officerrob
Banned
It's going to look real funny if Rubio endorses Trump after calling him a con man
Up until the last debate I thought Rubio had a good chance to be selected as Trump's VP. Not anymore.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
How so?
I was watching a little bit of Rubio's rally, i find this whole thing to be pathetic. Don't follow that guy who says he can make your life better, follow me! Trump's bankrupted four companies, while i make a nice salary and don't manage my money well, and i don't even show up to my job anymore because i want this one.
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