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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Maledict said:
The things is, on this one issue sanders fans are right. The super delegates aren't going to override the pledged delegates from the primary process to put someone else in power. They wouldn't do in 2008, they won't do it now.

It's why Clinton should happily agree to get rid of them if that's one of Sanders demand
for his support. They don't work anymore and can't do what they are suppossed to do - it's inconceivable that they would override the winner of the election process, and they just lead to friction and rancour in the party.
Click to expand...

The democrats aren't getting rid of the super delegates. It's not going to happen for two reasons:
  1. Look at Trump, you want a left-wing version of that? You want an insane person to kill progress for an entire generation because the party can't stop them? Super Delegates stop guys like Trump.
  2. It allows them to end the primary earlier so their candidate can focus on the general sooner than the other side, which is a big edge
Also, this isn't even up to Hillary. Hell, it's not up to Obama or DWS either.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
neurosisxeno said:
Jesus. So voter turnout was literally half this time around? What the hell happened???
Click to expand...

Basically, from what I've seen: most of the loss comes from a combination of white laggards finally switching their registration to the party they've been voting for in general elections for several cycles, and a coronation taking place.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Maledict said:
The things is, on this one issue sanders fans are right. The super delegates aren't going to override the pledged delegates from the primary process to put someone else in power. They wouldn't do in 2008, they won't do it now.

It's why Clinton should happily agree to get rid of them if that's one of Sanders demand
for his support. They don't work anymore and can't do what they are suppossed to do - it's inconceivable that they would override the winner of the election process, and they just lead to friction and rancour in the party.
Click to expand...

It would tank the Democratic Party. As it is, Republicans are trying to figure out some justifiable way to do it if Trump keeps winning, but it's a losing strategy. If you override the pledged delegates, the people that voted in the Primaries will tell literally anyone they can not to bother voting because it doesn't matter. Voter apathy will result in Republicans sweeping literally everything imaginable.

It's better to have a slugfest for several months than to screw over one candidate for the sake of "Party Unity!" which to most people seems more like "Here's Our Guy, Vote For Them You Fools!".
 
H

Hazmat

Member
Holmes said:
She's repeatedly attacked Sanders for calling Obama disappointing, saying he wanted to primary him in 2012 (the primary in which many of them voted against him or stayed home!) and has made it very well known that she wants to continue his policies. These are literally the people that people laugh at and mock for being Obama birthers and value voters. But like I said, if you think that conservative Democrats in Oklahoma (many in rural areas) voted for Sanders because of his socialist policies, have at it boss.
Click to expand...

So, the Oklahoma Democratic primary voters are birthers and value voters?

Dude, it's really gross to shit all over voters in your own party because your candidate of choice (and mine!) lost a state. It makes you look like a petulant child. There are going to be some losses. Be a big boy, take the L, and move on.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Hazmat said:
Dude, it's really gross to shit all over voters in your own party because your candidate of choice (and mine!) lost a state. It makes you look like a petulant child. There are going to be some losses. Be a big boy, take the L, and move on.
Click to expand...

From what I've gathered anyone not voting for Hillary is too stupid to be a real Democrat.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
JetBlackPanda said:
So what happened today? From the stand point of a Hillary supporter.

Give it to me straight poligaf!
Click to expand...

Hillary and Bernie won the states they could reasonably expect to win.

Hillary crushed in the South and amassed a huge delegate advantage, while Bernie won smaller victories in some other states. (And crushed Vermont.)

Hillary more or less clinched the Democratic nomination*, but Bernie probably won't quit for a little while since he won a few states.

On the GOP side, Trump performed worse than the polls, but still won the most states and has a huge lead.

Rubio got blown out horribly, despite winning Minnesota, and is way behind.

Cruz won TX (expected) and OK (surprising) and is the only candidate who could possibly challenge Trump.


* Hillary amassed a huge lead that nearly guarantees her the Democratic nomination.**

** Hillary is virtually certain to win the Democratic nomination.***

*** Hillary has a lot of delegates and I think she's going to win the Democratic nomination because that's what delegates are for.
 
JetBlackPanda

JetBlackPanda

Member
Officerrob said:
Lost a couple toss-ups, won Mass, destroyed the south larger than expected. Delegate math is hugely in her favor
Click to expand...

pigeon said:
Hillary and Bernie won the states they could reasonably expect to win.

Hillary crushed in the South and amassed a huge delegate advantage, while Bernie won smaller victories in some other states. (And crushed Vermont.)

Hillary more or less clinched the Democratic nomination*, but Bernie probably won't quit for a little while since he won a few states.

On the GOP side, Trump performed worse than the polls, but still won the most states and has a huge lead.

Rubio got blown out horribly, despite winning Minnesota, and is way behind.

Cruz won TX (expected) and OK (surprising) and is the only candidate who could possibly challenge Trump.


* Hillary amassed a huge lead that nearly guarantees her the Democratic nomination.**

** Hillary is virtually certain to win the Democratic nomination.***

*** Hillary has a lot of delegates and I think she's going to win the Democratic nomination because that's what delegates are for.
Click to expand...

Hey thanks for all the info!
 
H

Holmes

Member
I'm allowed to shit on Democratic voters if they vote for Randall Terry over the sitting President of their own party, just like Republicans have the right to do it to their primary voters that vote for Trump. I've taken the L. I just don't respect many Oklahoma Democrats for voting against Obama, and there's been bad blood with these voters when it comes Obama even before he became President.
 
H

Hazmat

Member
Holmes said:
I'm allowed to shit on Democratic voters if they vote for Randall Terry over the sitting President of their own party, just like Republicans have the right to do it to their primary voters that vote for Trump. I've taken the L. I just don't respect many Oklahoma Democrats for voting against Obama, and there's been bad blood with these voters when it comes Obama even before he became President.
Click to expand...

That was four years ago and it was an uncontested (in any big-boy sense) primary with a sitting President. I just kind of feel like you wouldn't be shitting all over the Oklahoma democrats if their horrendous racist tendencies picked a Gentile woman over a Jewish man.
 
C

ConfusingJazz

Member
Hazmat said:
That was four years ago and it was an uncontested (in any big-boy sense) primary with a sitting President. I just kind of feel like you wouldn't be shitting all over the Oklahoma democrats if their horrendous racist tendencies picked a Gentile woman over a Jewish man.
Click to expand...

Holmes said:
I'm allowed to shit on Democratic voters if they vote for Randall Terry over the sitting President of their own party, just like Republicans have the right to do it to their primary voters that vote for Trump. I've taken the L. I just don't respect many Oklahoma Democrats for voting against Obama, and there's been bad blood with these voters when it comes Obama even before he became President.
Click to expand...

Settle down.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The main issue on the minds of Alaska voters tonight was, as you'd expect, border security:

5_What-Are-They-Talking-About-1024x576.jpg


http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/what-matters-most-to-super-tuesday-voters/

What a country we live in.
Click to expand...

Gotta make sure those damn Canadians stay in Canada and those moose stay in Moosanada.
 
R

rodvik

Member
adam387 said:
More people voted for Hillary tonight than anyone else.
Click to expand...

Still scares me that more people voted in the Republican primary than Democratic though and its not a small margin.

I am a Hillary guy but I am tempted to argue Bernie should stay in to the end, not just to try and pull off an upset but also to get the base motivated for the general. He could also keep Hillary fighting fit in the same way Hillary did for Obama.
 
C

CCS

Banned
Good night for Hillary last night. Did a great job of running up the score in the south, so even though Sanders took most of the marginal states, she's still got a bigger delegate lead than most were predicting.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
rodvik said:
Still scares me that more people voted in the Republican primary than Democratic though and its not a small margin.

I am a Hillary guy but I am tempted to argue Bernie should stay in to the end, not just to try and pull off an upset but also to get the base motivated for the general. He could also keep Hillary fighting fit in the same way Hillary did for Obama.
Click to expand...

I mean, I get you, but I think there are a couple things going on here. For all intents and purposes, this is an uncontested primary, really. Hillary is as close to an incumbent or Veep without actually being either. There's no real question how this is going to go. Plus, you have maximum fuckary on the GOP side. If Hillary wasn't running, I probably would have asked for a GOP ballot just to screw things up. I don't see how Bernie staying in is going to keep the base motivated when him being in thus far hasn't lead to his glorious revolution of smart people. All us dumb folks keep turning out, but...ya. As long as he doesn't do anything to hurt Hillary, I don't mind him staying in. I don't want him to keep taking people's money, but that's another thing entirely. He goes back to being a message candidate, and I"m all good with him staying in. (Not that he needs my permission!)


I know this is beating a dead horse by this point, but, seriously, saying Bernie has an AA problem is a misnomer. These results are nothing more than a repudiation of him as a candidate or, at least, of his ideas. I just...it's amazing to me.
 
K

Krowley

Member
ivysaur12 said:
Then his supporters can't see that his campaign has no realistic path towards the nomination. There will be no gap to be closed, because as will be rightfully reported, this race is realistically over.
Click to expand...

I don't think anybody said Hillary didn't have an overwhelming lead at the moment. A Bernie win will probably require some sort of collapse in her campaign. But I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to be a thorn in her side for a while longer.

And this has been a surprising election so far in many ways, on both sides. Maybe there are more surprises coming.

If she'd won everything but Vermont, like many were predicting, it would've killed his campaign dead tonight. Money would've started to dry up even if Bernie didn't bow out. If his wins in CO, OK, and MN had been really small (2-to-5 points) that would've been pretty devastating too. But he won by decent margins everywhere. MA hurt, but the surprising margins in the other states took a lot of the sting out. Now people have legitimate doubts about a lot of the poles in upcoming states. Is Bernie really down as far as the polls say? Is it closer than it appears to be?

Because the polls have been missing pretty bad in a lot of states this cycle. Even when they get the winner, they frequently seem to miss the margins by a lot, sometimes more than 10 points.
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
Looks like Cruz is going to take Alaska. Unbelievable. He may end up with nearly as many delegates as Trump tonight.

The only thing that's making me feel better is that Cruz probably had all his strongest states tonight. He should have trouble getting more delegates from here, unless somehow he gains a ton of momentum and everyone else rallies around him. Doubt it.

Oh, also Rubio did terribly, lol. So two things.
 
C

CCS

Banned
Can you imagine if the GOP establishment are forced to conclude that their choice is between Trump and Cruz? I think they might implode from sheer fury.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
CCS said:
Can you imagine if the GOP establishment are forced to conclude that their choice is between Trump and Cruz? I think they might implode from sheer fury.
Click to expand...

I know they hate Cruz, but I don't get why they don't just take the L and go with him. He can't be as toxic as the guy who was unsure of the KKK, can he? I mean, I loathe the man, but he has to be playing well enough among the cray-cray. Of course, the Trump thing is never, ever going away. He will not go quietly into the dark Georgia night.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
vicissitudes said:
Looks like Cruz is going to take Alaska. Unbelievable. He may end up with nearly as many delegates as Trump tonight.

The only thing that's making me feel better is that Cruz probably had all his strongest states tonight. He should have trouble getting more delegates from here, unless somehow he gains a ton of momentum and everyone else rallies around him. Doubt it.

Oh, also Rubio did terribly, lol. So two things.
Click to expand...

Trump is going to come away with a lot more delegates than Cruz.

Krowley said:
I don't think anybody said Hillary didn't have an overwhelming lead at the moment. A Bernie win will probably require some sort of collapse in her campaign. But I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to be a thorn in her side for a while longer.

And this has been a surprising election so far in many ways, on both sides. Maybe there are more surprises coming.

If she'd won everything but Vermont, like many were predicting, it would've killed his campaign dead tonight. Money would've started to dry up even if Bernie didn't bow out. If his wins in CO, OK, and MN had been really small (2-to-5 points) that would've been pretty devastating too. But he won by decent margins everywhere. MA hurt, but the surprising margins in the other states took a lot of the sting out.
Click to expand...

Taking the sting out =! building an effective campaign that's able to overcome gigantic deficits incurred on Super Tuesday/most likely through most of the large states in March.

We're past the point where winning a state like Iowa is great and can be a momentum builder. It's about delegates, and Bernie does not have as many as he needs at the moment, and it'll be extremely hard for him to close that gap. I don't think anything tonight propels him forward to do so.
 
C

CCS

Banned
adam387 said:
I know they hate Cruz, but I don't get why they don't just take the L and go with him. He can't be as toxic as the guy who was unsure of the KKK, can he? I mean, I loathe the man, but he has to be playing well enough among the cray-cray. Of course, the Trump thing is never, ever going away. He will not go quietly into the dark Georgia night.
Click to expand...

I mean, he's also just a shitty candidate. Doesn't have the popular wave of support like Trump or the ability to appeal to moderates that Rubio supposedly has.
 
R

rodvik

Member
adam387 said:
I mean, I get you, but I think there are a couple things going on here. For all intents and purposes, this is an uncontested primary, really. Hillary is as close to an incumbent or Veep without actually being either. There's no real question how this is going to go. Plus, you have maximum fuckary on the GOP side. If Hillary wasn't running, I probably would have asked for a GOP ballot just to screw things up. I don't see how Bernie staying in is going to keep the base motivated when him being in thus far hasn't lead to his glorious revolution of smart people. All us dumb folks keep turning out, but...ya. As long as he doesn't do anything to hurt Hillary, I don't mind him staying in. I don't want him to keep taking people's money, but that's another thing entirely. He goes back to being a message candidate, and I"m all good with him staying in. (Not that he needs my permission!)


I know this is beating a dead horse by this point, but, seriously, saying Bernie has an AA problem is a misnomer. These results are nothing more than a repudiation of him as a candidate or, at least, of his ideas. I just...it's amazing to me.
Click to expand...

I think thats the win, if he can pull the debate to the left then thats good for everyone. I agree he needs to cut out the attacks, that helps nobody, but constantly challenging Hillary to defend herself and her positions, thats good. Keep her a lean mean fighting machine :)

Yes Bernies AA problem is a thing, he really needs to address it. I mean we all KNOW he genuinely cares about these issues , you just need to look at his record, but he sure is not doing a good job of showing it.

I worry less about the money. The Democratic fund raising base is massive (because we are the majority) so if motivated there is plenty more money out there for Hillary come the summer. But the motivation is the thing. If Bernie can help with that , then he is a force for good.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Tonight should be Cruz's best night for delegates with Texas having his back. March 15th might not be so good, especially with Florida and Ohio as winners-take-all, Illinois being a non-starter and Trump winning every state neighbouring North Carolina comfortably.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
rodvik said:
Still scares me that more people voted in the Republican primary than Democratic though and its not a small margin.

I am a Hillary guy but I am tempted to argue Bernie should stay in to the end, not just to try and pull off an upset but also to get the base motivated for the general. He could also keep Hillary fighting fit in the same way Hillary did for Obama.
Click to expand...

For people diablosing over the primary voting numbers, two factoids on historical turnout #s:

From Jamelle Bouie said:
Democratic primary turnout in 1980 was a third greater than Republican primary turnout the same year.

23 million people turned out for the 1988 Democratic primary, the highest total until 2008.
Click to expand...

What we're seeing this year is that Trump is bringing out a lot of people who typically don't vote and the fear of Trump is bringing out Republicans who are terrified of the guy. At the same time, most Dems realize that Clinton is going to win and aren't too fired up by Sanders. That's going to be very different in the general, especially if Trump wins.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
Welp I just had a horrifyingly vivid dream where a Jeb/Kasich amalgam started giggling uncontrollably and then waddled over to the side of the stage where they violently vomited out their innards. Needless to say I guess I won't be getting back to sleep immediately.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
rodvik said:
I think thats the win, if he can pull the debate to the left then thats good for everyone. I agree he needs to cut out the attacks, that helps nobody, but constantly challenging Hillary to defend herself and her positions, thats good. Keep her a lean mean fighting machine :)

Yes Bernies AA problem is a thing, he really needs to address it. I mean we all KNOW he genuinely cares about these issues , you just need to look at his record, but he sure is not doing a good job of showing it.
Click to expand...

At this point, if I was Bernie, I don't know that I would bother. Just keep doing what you're doing, talk about what you want to talk about and let god sort it out. It would be legitimately impossible for him to have done any worse with AA voters than he already has. His numbers among Latinos are better, but they're still terrible. He's not going to move the needle with women. I guess just let Bernie be Bartlett. He pretty much gave up on the AA vote when he wrote off the south today.

He'll do a bit better in northern states that are more diverse (again, impossible for him to have done any worse) I know brainchild was talking about why there is such a divide between AA voters in the south and AA voters in the north where Bernie maybe does a little less bad.

Someone mentioned this somewhere, and I agree with it. Red State Democrats effectively get a voice in primaries and that's it, at least at the Presidential level. This is it for SC, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and Tennessee democrats. So, things like electability and pragmatism are more important because a Democratic President is the only protection they have, weak as it may be, from the GOP.

Or they're just more conservative.
 
M

Mac_Lane

Member
Terrible night for Rubio, this is awesome.

And in a memo Tuesday night, Kasich’s campaign made the case that the Ohio governor had a better shot at the nomination than Rubio.

“Sen. Rubio has been more hyped than Crystal Pepsi, but he has flopped even worse,” the memo stated.
Click to expand...

From the Buzfeed article posted a couple of pages ago. Brutal.
 
C

CCS

Banned
Hillary should have Michigan on lock, hopefully that combined with her strong showing last night can push her to some really good results on the 15th.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 19m19 minutes ago
If you had told me last week that Donald Trump would only bat 7/11 tonight, I would've said that's a pretty mediocre night for him.

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 14m14 minutes ago
Trump also came within 3% of losing Arkansas, Vermont, and Virginia. Not quite the degree of dominance we saw in NH, SC & NV.

When you step back, it's really nowhere near as dominating a night as I was expecting from Trump.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
PPP said their analysis (Whatever that is) held up well tonight, only being off in OK. They're saying the following among committed voters:

LA: 77-23
MI: 60-40
MS: 78-22
NC: 64-36
 
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