cartoon_soldier
Member
But Clinton is supposed to have Mook's organizing power. I want them to give Bernie hell in these upcoming caucuses.
The margin of Sanders win in MN has taken me back for sure.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
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But Clinton is supposed to have Mook's organizing power. I want them to give Bernie hell in these upcoming caucuses.
The margin of Sanders win in MN has taken me back for sure.
User 463088
Banned
Well, to begin with, I'm not dragging Sanders through the mud at all. I'm questioning his campaign strategy. Of course, that's probably a useless thing to do because the explanation "Devine is an idiot" probably sums up the entire problem.
The issue is not that Hillary did well with AA voters. It's the margins that are legitimately shocking to me. I mean, no one wins 96/3 among a group of people. It's just not normal. So far, her margins are better among AA voters than Obama's were. That's interesting to me, and I was wanting to get other opinions, specifically maybe those from minority communities who might be able to educate me on their perception of the issue.
I've offered some explanations, including southern minority voters being a bit more conservative or pragmatic due to regional, historical or economic reasons/issues. I'm not sure that's a good enough explanation, though.
As for what he could have done, he could have formed a basic understanding of intersectionality as Hillary has been able to do (and explain adequately) on multiple occasions. He could have tried, really, really hard to not pivot back to Wall Street every 30 seconds. He could have made sure Cornell West wasn't within 40 miles of a potential voter. Maybe he should have reached out to prominent leaders in the minority community and asked them for their support or endorsement.
Again, though, my current question related to his Super Tuesday strategy, specifically in Tennessee. I think that was a decent enough place for him to at least try and do better. He only lost the 1st congressional district by a little over 1000 votes. The state was one of the few that wanted more liberal policies (OK and VT being two others that did...) It wasn't a great demographic fit, but it was better than some other places. If he's playing to win, then his campaign needs to mitigate loses where they can. Rachel Maddow and Chuck Todd mentioned this earlier tonight, and I just found it interesting.
Coriolanus
Banned
Can you expand on this?
shinra-bansho
Member
Obviously familiarity is a part of it; and the only thing that could have or should have been done towards this is to invest in the south in both time and money much earlier. Essentially pulling out media markets presumably didn't help with these margins.
But for why Sanders populist rhetoric may not resonate as well with black voters, Charles Blow had a good column about an "functional pragmatism."
And for how their approaches to campaigning in the south for black voters have differed, there is this Atlantic article as well as another column by Blow. Pertinent from Blow's column, the potential mentality:
His choice of certain surrogates, however limited the pool, did not ultimately help either.
Also, while the claim that he is "single issue" is overall unfair; I don't think that the label "single minded" in terms of purpose or drive is necessarily. His responses are shaped by a worldview - a lens - focused on income inequality and railing against old-school Big Corporate, and it shows, regardless of what domestic issue he is talking about.
West has among other things called President Obama a Republican in blackface.
User 463088
Banned
Cornel West was supposed to be part of Bernie's out reach to AA communities, along with Killer Mike. Dr. West has basically made a career these last 8 years of attacking President Obama every chance he gets. He has called him a Rockefeller Republican in black face once. So, Bernie sent a surrogate who has been critical of the guy with 90%+ approval rating in the AA community. Hell, I wouldn't send him into a predominately white community either because, by and large, Democrats love President Obama.
After SC, he literally threw every AA politician who supported Hillary under the bus. They all are "neo-liberals" now.
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/29/cor...ers_suffers_resounding_south_carolina_defeat/
Dude is a mess, especially stumping for you or something.
This alone is enough to condemn his campaign managers. No competent campaign manager would have anything to do with someone like this. Forget whether or not you think what he's said is unacceptable, it's just horrendously bad politics.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Bernie has either been seriously ill advised this campaign or he's stubborn.
aspiegamer
Member
Ooh, this is a good point. But he's so deep into attacking Trump now that I don't know if he'll let off at all. His entire "victory" speech tonight was dedicated to hammering Trump. It's the right move, though. Get Rubio "out", get a clear 2nd in delegates and you've got your case to be at the top of the ticket instead of VP. Rubio is never going to officially drop with the idea of a brokered convention on the table, though.
There's got to be some incredibly fascinating research that could be done on that one statistic. A whole lot of it probably pretty dark, but fascinating nonetheless.
teruterubozu
Member
It's really not that unusual for first time campaigners. Plus he's playing against someone who refined the game to an art form after her own trials-and-errors.
neurosisxeno
Member
I would say that's indicative of Hillary doing well. She did okay even when Obama was running, but now she is crushing it which is baffling.
But that's almost never the argument. The thing I keep hearing is that Bernie doesn't care about Minority Issues like Hillary does, and I can't for the life of me figure out what that even means--short of that he ties a lot of problems into economics.
I haven't seen Hillary say a whole lot outside of reassurng us that she cares deeply about Minority Issues, and reiterating that we need to combat systemic racism. I get that Bernie has done a poor job relating it to the lives of people, but the kinds of split we're seeing imply not just a messaging problem. He's already kind of distanced himself from Cornell West and has worked towards getting endorsements from various individuals within black communities--I know a few Representatives broke rank and endorsed him before South Carolina--but the main problem is Hillary was the defacto candidate for endorsements. How do you get endorsements when the party has decided a year and a half before the convention who they want to win it?
That's a valid point. I think the idea is that they wanted to focus on having decent wins on Super Tuesday, and continuing to play the momentum card. I don't think they really could have pulled off a win in TN without spending a ton of resources, and it was better to focus on MA\MN\CO\OK\TX than to try and throw money at places like TN\AK\AL.
This is incredible.
QuiteWhittle
Member
http://www.270towin.com/maps/5911L
The final map for the Dems is pretty predictable now. Red=Sanders, Blue=Clinton.
The final map for the Dems is pretty predictable now. Red=Sanders, Blue=Clinton.
User 463088
Banned
Little from column A a little from column B. I remember a while ago, Bernie's campaign people were frustrated he wouldn't hire a pollster. He kept saying he didn't need one. I think it also ties in with what a few people have said in that he is absolutely convinced of how right he is, and he may not feel the need to tailor his stump like other candidates do.
But, I'll go with the campaign telling him what he wants to hear. His Southern Strategy was ridiculous. It only helped cement opinions. No one's taught him how to concede yet. The thing is they're sooooo damn good at targeting their supporters for money. Like, I'm legitimately impressed by it. So, I'm not sure why they fail at a lot of the simpler things (like scheduling a speech, inviting the press, not managing to ignore the pillars of the Democratic party, etc)
Making Reddit Great Again.
Incidentally, I love the Battle of the Billionaires so much.
RastaMentality
Banned
It's weird how Trump didn't even have that great of a night and yet, the media narrative was still on his side. Cruz's OK win got chalked up to neighboring state advantage, and the big 3 news networks were basically saying Trump "dominated" all last night. The Rubio narrative ended up being how the fuck was he the GOPe savior while only winning one state in the end.
I mean at the end of the day, media narrative means way more than winning everything. It's not like Trump isn't ahead of his target.
I mean at the end of the day, media narrative means way more than winning everything. It's not like Trump isn't ahead of his target.
User 463088
Banned
I think it proves that perhaps the only candidate who could beat Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary was Barack Obama. Even with her strong ties, I would still expect Bernie to be a bit more competitive. He's just being rekt. So, my thought process makes me wonder if it's a repudiation of more liberal policies and politicians, or is there something about him PoC seem to really not like. My mom, although she's white, absolutely does not like Bernie. She's not good at explaining it, other than he's too focused on millionaires, billionaires and Wall Street. (OF course, my mom's a hot mess and is no way indicative of anyone at all...)
I think he cares, but I don't think he understands. His problem is, for me at least, he immediately tries to tie everything back to income inequality. Income inequality is a problem. But it is not the root cause of every problem. Me getting bashed and called a faggot is not related to how much money I have in my bank account. So, I'll never say he doesn't care. Because I think he's a good man who wants to help people. I think he's a poor messenger for his compassion because he lets his pet issues get in the way. That doesn't negate his compassion on the issue, though.
Well, to put it simply, you ask. Rep Clyburn said he never considered endorsing Bernie because Bernie never asked. Bernie decided to run as a democrat. That means doing what the party expects nominees to do. That means kissing up to the Super Delegates. It means not running for and against the party at the same time. If Bernie wanted to run for President and take a real shot at it, he should have been working on these connections from at least 2012. Hell, 2014 would have been better. You don't just make these connections over night, but there's nothing to suggest he even tried to.
Oh, no, he was never going to win. He didn't throw money at TX, though either. His Southern Strategy was absolutely stupid on an optics level alone. The lesson Hillary learned from 2008 is that you can't ignore the places you know you're going to lose. When she talks about working for every vote, that's the response to letting your opponent run up the margins when you're already trailing.
The main issue on the minds of Alaska voters tonight was, as you'd expect, border security:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/what-matters-most-to-super-tuesday-voters/
What a country we live in.
The yellow makes me sad to be alive.
Human stupidity is strong, fam...
Xisiqomelir
Member
Precisely. And Hills should be thankful she's getting prep time because the Donald is not going to be nice at all.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Christie's approval ratings in NJ keeps dropping: New low of 27%
Coriolanus
Banned
shinra-bansho
Member
It's really no fun to build someone up, unless you get to tear them down later. Rubio is a big fat mess is going to be useful fodder for a bit. And it would be incredibly hard to spin his mess today into something positive. Third places? Fourth places? Only won one state, barely. Lost to Kasich in some states.
Also, media is probably resolved to a Trump nomination now, but it also means 1) drama and chaos in the GOP, and 2) a chance to go after him better. Trump wins big. Now let's look at those tax returns, and Trump University, and his mortgage company.
Good news for the news business.
So PEOPLE need to REALIZE that polls are not always accurate. Trump definitely underperformed his polls...or rather Cruz REALLY overperformed his. I don't know if the KKK stuff hurt him in the last week, but all I'm saying is people saying OH ITS OVAH last week are not correct. The 15th is going to be 100% critical to ending this.
Bill Kristol is on morning joe basically crying.
edit: Also I read the last couple of pages wondering why people are talking about whether or not Bernie was expected to win MA. I see no value in contesting every little square inch of message board argument fodder. Clinton sealed ha nomination and that's thaT.
Bill Kristol is on morning joe basically crying.
edit: Also I read the last couple of pages wondering why people are talking about whether or not Bernie was expected to win MA. I see no value in contesting every little square inch of message board argument fodder. Clinton sealed ha nomination and that's thaT.
QuiteWhittle
Member
I think Kansas may be a bit shakey for Trump. Other than that, yes.
shinra-bansho
Member
Breaking News: Andy not sure what to do if Trump is nominee, might vote Democrat:
GOPS WAKE'N Up😱 Saw 2GOP Friend Andy, Mon.He Said"Jesus,Drumpf's Not Really going 2B Nominee"?I Said"What Wll U Do"He Said "Change 2 A DEM👏🏻
It begins.
GOPS WAKE'N Up😱 Saw 2GOP Friend Andy, Mon.He Said"Jesus,Drumpf's Not Really going 2B Nominee"?I Said"What Wll U Do"He Said "Change 2 A DEM👏🏻
It begins.
Butt Rubio isn't winning Florida!! (Have you seen the polling brah? Plus, it's really the South)
I know I say this all the time. i'll stop now
We really should be examining the important issues - like how Carly Rae Jepsen was robbed at the Grammys.
Buy E•MO•TION on iTunes!
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
R/politics is the HillaryIs44 of this election cycle. The front page is a big fat mess *hits microphone*
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
He did under perform in some states, but most he was within 2% of the polls.
Alabama expected: 41% - Alabama actual: 43% - Difference: +2
Arkansas expected: 33% - Arkansas actual: 33% - Difference: 0
Georgia expected: 38% - Georgia actual: 39% - Difference: +1
Massachusetts expected: 49% - Massachusetts actual: 49% - Difference: 0
Oklahoma expected: 33% - Oklahoma actual: 28% - Difference: -5
Tennessee expected: 43% - Tennessee actual: 39% - Difference: -4
Texas expected: 27% - Texas actual: 27% - Difference: 0
Virginia expected: 37% - Virginia actual: 35% - Difference: -2
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Rubio attacked Ted Cruz for "underperforming" last night :lol :lol :lol
So the GOP can either go with
A) Trump, the guy that consistently bashes the RNC and is giving the lower-income republican base a voice
Or
B) Cruz, the guy who nobody in Washington likes
Let the fun begin!
So the GOP can either go with
A) Trump, the guy that consistently bashes the RNC and is giving the lower-income republican base a voice
Or
B) Cruz, the guy who nobody in Washington likes
Let the fun begin!
shinra-bansho
Member
Hmm, morbid curiousity now, so let's see what we have.
Five stories about Bill Clinton's presence at polling locations.
Two about Colorado.
A Washington Free Beacon article.
A Breitbart article on BENGHAZI!
Nothing on Rubio being a big fat mess, though.
So they disavowed Trump huh. They were pretty pro-Trump early in the election cycle, which was funny considering Hillary is running.
gutter_trash
Banned
hahahahha
First Sarah Palin's endorsement did not deliver, now Christie's is probably career ending
too funny
Coriolanus
Banned
Now that's legit amazing. Even more fascinating because you know he can put it in far less abrasive terms and instead dives head first into bridge burning mode.
His career was ending anyway. He doesn't care.
I think if Trump keeps going the RNC will change rules on how delegates are shared to benefit Cruz and or Rubio. The party is freaking out.
Elaugaufein
Member
It should be remembered that the normal polling sample size is done for +/- ~3% at a 95% confidence level too (which means that 19 times in 20 , the polled result should be within a range of +/- 3% of the true value). So none of those deviations are actually super unusual.
They can't change the rules mid-primary without totally ditching any illusion of democracy for selecting their candidate. And there's no way in hell they'll change it to favor Cruz. Their last set of rule changes was about making it more difficult for candidates like Cruz who can easily carry the super religious states but would flame out and die spectacularly in the General. They'll probably make some changes after this Primary to slow down candidates like Trump though (probably by killing some more WTAs and making the proportionals more so).
The party doing anything outside the rules is not going to happen. Trump will do so much damage as a third party and you know he will run just because of ego.
The republicans have 13 days to run negative ads against him in Florida and Ohio. Otherwise don't bother.
The republicans have 13 days to run negative ads against him in Florida and Ohio. Otherwise don't bother.
My favourite was at one point when there was another pointless burst of articles about Hillary's emails, I counted 12 different news stories saying basically exactly the same thing on the front page. It was absolutely incredible.
Coriolanus
Banned
Can't quite do it mid-primary without, at the very least, grotesque backlash. Maybe for the next cycle.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
My favorite part about the RNC's third party run talk is that they harassed Trump for days to sign that pledge.
Elaugaufein
Member
They didn't think he could win but they did think he could self-finance a campaign to make them sad. But now it's biting them on the arse. It's hilarious.
The West thing will forever be amusing. Dude pretty much eats, breathes, and sleeps "Fuck Obama". So much so he got called out in an Diss Thesis.
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