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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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D

danm999

Member
TYT is the Fox News of the left and Cenk is their Karl Rove.

Fuck when I saw that headline I was convinced I was in for a HA Goodman.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Bernie's also holding a press conference this morning talking about the way forward. I'm guessing he'll tell Reddit he needs another $27 and he'll triple his delegate count over night.'

These were the final AA breakdowns, in case anyone was interested

Alabama : 92-6
Arkansas: 90-10
GA: 83-16
OK: 75-22
TX : 80-18
TN: 85-12
VA: 84-16
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
danm999 said:
Fuck when I saw that headline I was convinced I was in for a HA Goodman.
Click to expand...

Also my first thought, though on second glance the headline isn't nearly hyperbolic enough of a counterfactual to be a Goodman rag.

Like, I don't know, "Why Hillary Really Finished Third in Pledged Delegates" or something.

adam387 said:
PPP said their analysis (Whatever that is) held up well tonight, only being off in OK. They're saying the following among committed voters:

LA: 77-23
MI: 60-40
MS: 78-22
NC: 64-36
Click to expand...

hoo boy
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Officerrob said:
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 14m14 minutes ago
Trump also came within 3% of losing Arkansas, Vermont, and Virginia. Not quite the degree of dominance we saw in NH, SC & NV.

When you step back, it's really nowhere near as dominating a night as I was expecting from Trump.
Click to expand...

I'm convinced that if the Republicans had started carpet bombing Trump right after New Hampshire they could have knocked 5% of his numbers by now. Instead they waited until after SC and its going to make keeping the nomination from him much, much harder.
 
C

CCS

Banned
adam387 said:
PPP said their analysis (Whatever that is) held up well tonight, only being off in OK. They're saying the following among committed voters:

LA: 77-23
MI: 60-40
MS: 78-22
NC: 64-36
Click to expand...

This is the problem for Bernie. What's going to kill him isn't the number of states he loses. Rather, it's the number of states where Hillary is racking up big wins. He just doesn't have enough decently sized blowout states to compete with the huge margins she's accumulating across the south.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
I found historical voting data to 100% predict Rubio's impressive turnabout tonight.

e1984_ecmap.GIF
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Here were the breakdowns in Texas by race and gender

White Men
H 46
B 53

White Women
H 57
B 41

Black Men
H 74
B 25

Black Women
H 84
B 13

Latino Men
H 65
B 34

Latina Women
H 65
B 34

Edit:

@RonBrownstein

So far @HillaryClinton has won whites in IA, SC, GA, AL, ARK, TN, TX, VA; @SenSanders in NH, NV (by 2), MASS (by 1), OK, VT
Click to expand...
 
H

Holmes

Member
adam387 said:
PPP said their analysis (Whatever that is) held up well tonight, only being off in OK. They're saying the following among committed voters:

LA: 77-23
MI: 60-40
MS: 78-22
NC: 64-36
Click to expand...
I can see North Carolina being closer to Virginia than South Carolina.
 
C

Cerium

Member
The establishment has just two weeks to find a way to take down Trump.

Two weeks.

If current polling holds, Trump will win both Ohio and Florida. Winner take all states. If he pulls that off, there's no fucking stopping him.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Mass numbers among sex and marital status show Hillary winning single and married women, tying among married men, but losing single men 69 to 30.

LOLZ
 
D

Dalthien

Member
adam387 said:
Someone mentioned this somewhere, and I agree with it. Red State Democrats effectively get a voice in primaries and that's it, at least at the Presidential level. This is it for SC, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and Tennessee democrats. So, things like electability and pragmatism are more important because a Democratic President is the only protection they have, weak as it may be, from the GOP.
Click to expand...

The other thing a lot of people don't seem to realize is that the southern states are already penalized by the Democratic Party when it comes to their delegate allocation. The southern states don't get an equal representation in the choice for the presidential nominee, precisely because they don't vote Democratic in the general. These states get penalized and get a reduced number of delegates because of it.

That's why Massachusetts and Tennessee both have 11 electoral votes, but MA gets 91 pledged delegates, and TN only gets 67.

Or why Georgia and Michigan each get 16 electoral votes, but MI gets 130 pledged delegates whereas GA only gets 102.

Or why Texas dwarfs New York in electoral votes - TX has 38 EV and NY only has 29 EV - but NY gets 247 pledged delegates and TX only gets 222 pledged delegates.

Etc,, etc., etc....

The system is already set up so that the southern states get less representation in the Democratic primary because those states don't vote Democratic in the general.
 
D

danm999

Member
Dalthien said:
The other thing a lot of people don't seem to realize is that the southern states are already penalized by the Democratic Party when it comes to their delegate allocation. The southern states don't get an equal representation in the choice for the presidential nominee, precisely because they don't vote Democratic in the general. These states get penalized and get a reduced number of delegates because of it.

That's why Massachusetts and Tennessee both have 11 electoral votes, but MA gets 91 pledged delegates, and TN only gets 67.

Or why Georgia and Michigan each get 16 electoral votes, but MI gets 130 pledged delegates whereas GA only gets 102.

Etc,, etc., etc....

The system is already set up so that the southern states get less representation in the Democratic primary because those states don't vote Democratic in the general.
Click to expand...

Huh I had no idea. Is that the reason behind the Southern states of Super Tuesday banding together?
 
C

Cerium

Member
danm999 said:
Huh I had no idea. Is that the reason behind the Southern states of Super Tuesday banding together?
Click to expand...

I believe that was a Republican move (these states are controlled by Republican legislatures after all) to deliberately drive the primary to the right.
 
C

Cerium

Member
So the March 5th states...

Anyone got blind predictions? I don't think there are any polls that we can rely on.

Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine

I think Trump sweeps all of those.
 
D

danm999

Member
I really thought Ted was fucked this morning and was looking forward to it, but I can't say I'm not pleased he stepped on Rubio, who I consider the most dangerous candidate, and he denied Donald his coronation.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Meh. Rubio is done. Big fat mess.

Code: 
State		White %		Winner
[I]Vermont		95		Sanders[/I]
[I]New Hampshire	93		Sanders[/I]
Iowa		91		Clinton
[I]Minnesota	90*		Sanders[/I]
Massachusetts	85		Clinton
[I]Colorado	80*		Sanders[/I]
[I]Oklahoma	74		Sanders[/I]
Arkansas	67		Clinton
Tennessee	63		Clinton
Virginia	63		Clinton
Nevada		59		Clinton
Texas		45		Clinton
Georgia		38		Clinton
Alabama		36		Clinton
South Carolina	35		Clinton
*Old estimates, no exit poll.

Code: 
White %		Delegates
90<		89
80-89		723
70-79		690
60-69		310
50-59		911*
50>		214
*Includes California's 475.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Great line in the NYT from Mike Murphy on what Republicans continue to panic over Trump:

It’s like a computer designed him to lose elections for us. Who does he offend? College-educated white women and Latinos, the groups we need to win.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Cerium said:
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine

I think Trump sweeps all of those.
Click to expand...

Depending on the odds, I kinda like Cruz in KY. He came within two points in Arkansas, which is right next door, and tomorrow's debate is going to be brutal. Plus McConnell is going to play every card in the deck to tamp down Trump's votes.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
How in the hell did Bernie's people not address this non white problem. They have to have internals. He was completely convinced he was winning Nevada. How? I don't understand. I lack an understanding of how they let this happen. Also, they screwed up by not contesting Tennessee. He could have salvaged a few delegates there. Texas was just a big mess. *airhorn*
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
danm999 said:
Huh I had no idea. Is that the reason behind the Southern states of Super Tuesday banding together?
Click to expand...

The GOP penalize non-Red states the same way (you get extra delegates for being Republican at various levels (Presidential and Senatorial, and for having Republican legislatures (1 for each house + an extra if both).

It does have some undesirable outcomes though, since its an unstable equilibrium , just like hard gerrymandering is and makes it very hard to pull back if things get out of control (See Also: Tea Party and Trump).

adam387 said:
How in the hell did Bernie's people not address this non white problem. They have to have internals. He was completely convinced he was winning Nevada. How? I don't understand. I lack an understanding of how they let this happen. Also, they screwed up by not contesting Tennessee. He could have salvaged a few delegates there. Texas was just a big mess. *airhorn*
Click to expand...

This thread is positively confusing at times. You talk about how Bernie has no chance with minorities and then you talk about how surprising it is , he isn't doing anything successfully to win groups he has no chance with. Just like you talk about how he spend months working on this area without success and then you wonder why he doesn't consider to toss resources down a black hole.
 
C

CCS

Banned
CNN have updated delegate projections for the Democrats, almost all now assigned:

Pledged delegates currently sitting at: Clinton 587, Sanders 397

Super Tuesday only delegates: Clinton 496, Sanders 332

Only 37 delegates remain unallocated from super Tuesday states: 22 from TX, 8 from TN, 3 from MA, 2 from OK, 2 from CO
 
K

kami_sama

Member
CCS said:
CNN have updated delegate projections for the Democrats, almost all now assigned:

Pledged delegates currently sitting at: Clinton 587, Sanders 397

Super Tuesday only delegates: Clinton 496, Sanders 332

Only 37 delegates remain unallocated from super Tuesday states: 22 from TX, 8 from TN, 3 from MA, 2 from OK, 2 from CO
Click to expand...

That doesn't look good for sanders. But I hope he can drive permanently Clinton's campaign to the left, at least on economic issues, but I fear she's going to bounce back to here she was at the start.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
kami_sama said:
That doesn't look good for sanders. But I hope he can drive permanently Clinton's campaign to the left, at least on economic issues, but I fear she's going to bounce back to here she was at the start.
Click to expand...

It's pretty much a given she'll move to the right in the general but that's why you actual want to move someone left in the primary, so that even when they inevitably move rightward you've still got daylight.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Elaugaufein said:
This thread is positively confusing at times. You talk about how Bernie has no chance with minorities and then you talk about how surprising it is , he isn't doing anything successfully to win groups he has no chance with. Just like you talk about how he spend months working on this area without success and then you wonder why he doesn't consider to toss resources down a black hole.
Click to expand...

He has no chance now, and I'm trying to figure out what happened. I'm trying to figure out why his campaign thought they could be successful when they are losing AA, Latinos and women. Unless the reports are wrong and he didn't think he would win NV. The fact that he made almost no inroads with AA voters is interesting to me, I admit.

However, the Tennessee question comes from looking at the results by congressional district. There were places where a few percentage points could have netted him a few delegates. Tenn was one of the few states that wanted more liberal policies. It's about mitigating loses. Tenn was his best bet in the South and he did nothing. He wouldn't have won, but he could have not lost so badly.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
adam387 said:
He has no chance now, and I'm trying to figure out what happened... ...The fact that he made almost no inroads with AA voters is interesting to me, I admit.
Click to expand...

I don't think there's much he could do to win Minorities. People have been banking on Hillary to win the minority vote since she announced. Her association with Bill alone netted her an insane amount of minority support. Sanders has a track record of voting on legislation that benefits Black and Latino citizens, actively campaigns on wanting to improve their lives and reduce the rate of poverty among minority citizens, and straight up embracing BLM on stage at a debate, months before any other candidate.

What could he have done? Pretend Economic Issues (which most Democrats care deeply about) weren't his strongest issue? Have even more sitdowns during Black History month? Get more people speaking on his behalf? People point to 1 video where he drops the ball back in JULY OF 2015 and say it's proof he doesn't even care about minority issues.

So what could he have done? I want actual examples, and I want to see how Hillary does it better. Because if we're going to dredge Sanders through the mud about his lack of appeal to these voters, you should at least have a legitimate argument for why.
 
C

Cerium

Member
March 15th is the only date that really matters. Everything else matters insofar as it sets the narrative leading up to March 15th.

Florida and Ohio. Winner takes all. 165 delegates awarded in one stroke.

Trump winning Ohio kills Kasich. Trump winning Florida kills Rubio.

If I'm Cruz I'm doing my best to help Trump win Florida because that's the only way to knock Rubio out of the race. Then you aim for a contested convention.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
What everyone in here is forgetting about Cruz is that the later half of the primary schedule does not favor him at all. Lots of northern states where he doesn'the draw anywhere near the interest of the voters.

We may be looking at a situation where Kasich again gets more votes than Cruz.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Plinko said:
What everyone in here is forgetting about Cruz is that the later half of the primary schedule does not favor him at all. Lots of northern states where he doesn'the draw anywhere near the interest of the voters.

We may be looking at a situation where Kasich again gets more votes than Cruz.
Click to expand...

Because Rubio's only path is winning Florida too
 
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