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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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J

Jack Remington

Banned
So coming up we've got the following states. I'm predicting:

March 5th
Kansas (caucus) - Cruz
Kentucky (caucus) - Trump
Louisiana - Trump
Maine - Trump

March 6th
Puerto Rico - Marco

March 8th
Hawaii (caucus) - who the fuck knows?
Idaho - Trump or Cruz
Michigan - Trump
Mississippi - Trump stomp

March 12th
District of Columbia - Marco?

March 15th
Florida - Trump stomp
Illinois - Trump
Missouri - Trump
North Carolina - Trump
Ohio - Trump

Anyone have anything different?
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
brainchild said:
I've just kinda accepted that that's the way things are here and have made peace with it.

They're really not so bad when you get to know them :)
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Most of them. I am happy there wasn't a ton of gloating today.
Black Mamba said:
BTW, The establishment fucked up big time and here's how. By not rallying around Kasich. We all pretty much agreed that Kasich probably had the best shot in 2016 against Hillary. I know he's not as moderate as he pretends to be but the perception is that he is moderate. And he would play it that way. And he appears to care about the poor. And he has a good record for a Republican. And he worked in the federal gov't, private sector, media, and state gov't level. His credentials are there. He also ran a more positive campaign and he has often sounded like the adult in the group.

The Republican Establishment is well aware of their problem with minorities. But the Establishment doesn't "get it." Just like they thought by putting Palin out there that "hey we have a woman VP!" being good enough they think having a young Cuban be the face of their party would be good enough. But Rubio is a bad candidate. He's very conservative, he's unpolished, and can't debate for shit. He had to resort to dick jokes against Donald Fucking Drumpf.

Kasich was the only candidate from the very beginning calling Drumpf's positions crazy. His Medicaid expansion also wouldn't have hurt him nearly as much as they thought it would have. Kasich is the only candidate that could have siphoned off Drumpf's support. Think about it. yes, he has a bunch of racists and Kasich wouldn't touch those but that's not all his support. He has a lot of support from the "Drumpf is successful, yay businesman" group, too. It's why he won Massachusetts so easily. It's why Drumpf wins in every demographic or at least gets a good chunk of them. He appeals not just to nativists but also those who aren't super conservative and love business people and people who "gets things done". Kasich would have appealed to some of these folks!

The problem is Kasich got drowned out by the Cruz-Drumpf-Rubio wars since early January.

It's too late now, Kasich has no path to the majority of delegates. The GOP Establishment put their money on Rubio once Jeb! bombed. Partly because he's a minority and young, partly because Kasich expanded medicaid and they bet wrong. Very wrong.

Kasich was the GOP's best hope for Not Drumpf and the GE but they never recognized it and it is now waaaaaay too late. Think about it, had they unified around him in early January, Rubio drops out after NH and the GOP goes on a full on attack on Drumpf for being a racist and Kasich is now the nominee.

Alas...
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I was thinking about this earlier when I scanned your post, and while I would like to see numbers showing this shared support from Trump, I generally agree Kasich was the best choice of the group. He's similar to Hillary went it comes to experience.

Trump's success is the Republican's own fault. This is what you get for years of quietly ignoring the racist part of your party and not improving your relationship with minorities. This is the result of using anger towards government to win elections. This is what happens when you say the government should be treated like a business. This timid approach you choose for quite a while caused this to get out of control.

Trump being taken out early was a possibility if they had targeted his weaknesses earlier. Whether it was under estimating his appeal, the difficulty of developing a strategy to counter or being stuck due to the field size, the GOP establishment fucked up.

Even if this helps the Democrats immensely this fall, guaranteeing a Hillary victory (which I believe is the case), it still makes me sad. Trump is entertaining, it's fun to watch him fighting in the debates, but to have one of the two major political parties acting like this is not good for the country. The partisan divide has been steadily increasing, making compromise more difficult, and nationalism will only exacerbate the problem.
Holmes said:
Shorter this poll: "don't you ever show your face around here, Sanders."
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You have a bad attitude unless you're joking.
 
J

j_k_redtail

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
CclFZopWEAAAtl2.jpg
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The more things change the more they stay the same.
 
B

BSsBrolly

Banned
For all the freaking out I do over Cruz, I just remembered that he would have to debate Hillary... She would eat him alive. Hell, I think she'd eat any of the top 3 alive. I just think it would be a hell of a lot easier for her if it was Trump. I'm starting to think Cruz wouldn't be much, if any, harder.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
The Clinton campaign would actually prefer Cruz.

He's similarly anathema to a lot of core Democratic constituencies, while being much more of a standard politician and thus, predictable.

While Trump is off-putting to Hispanics, black voters, women, gays; but also insane and unpredictable.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Jack Remington said:
So coming up we've got the following states. I'm predicting:
Click to expand...

My predictions are similar. Here are mine:

March 5th
Kansas (caucus) - Cruz
Kentucky (caucus) - Trump
Louisiana - Trump
Maine - Trump

March 6th
Puerto Rico - Rubio stomp

March 8th
Hawaii (caucus) - Rubio
Idaho - Cruz
Michigan - Trump
Mississippi - Trump stomp

March 12th
District of Columbia - Rubio
(The people in DC who vote in Republican primaries are the epitome of establishment voters.)

March 15th
Florida - Trump stomp
Illinois - Trump stomp
Missouri - Trump stomp
North Carolina - Trump
Ohio - Kasich

On the Democratic side:

March 5th
Kansas - Sanders
Nebraska - Sanders
Louisiana - Clinton stomp * infinity

March 6th
Maine - Sanders stomp

March 8th
Michigan - Clinton
Mississippi - Clinton * infinity and beyond

March 12th
Northern Mariana Islands - Clinton

March 15th
Florida - Clinton stomp
Ohio - Clinton
North Carolina - Clinton stomp
Illinois - Clinton
Missouri - Clinton

A Human Becoming said:
You have a bad attitude unless you're joking.
Click to expand...
Yeah. I'm joking. It's a joke.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
BSsBrolly said:
For all the freaking out I do over Cruz, I just remembered that he would have to debate Hillary... She would eat him alive. Hell, I think she'd eat any of the top 3 alive. I just think it would be a hell of a lot easier for her if it was Trump. I'm starting to think Cruz wouldn't be much, if any, harder.
Click to expand...

Cruz is the dream candidate. All of Trump's negatives with none of his game-changing wild card risks.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Gruco said:
Everything is coming up Sanders in the delegate math. I have proof
Click to expand...

Bernie's totally getting 60% of the vote in Puerto Rico and 100% of the vote in Guam. And he's going to travel back in time and split the American Samoa caucus with Hillary. Because socialism now allows you to ret-con anything you don't like.

Did this originally come from Reddit? I have to find the source and read the comments on it. Please
 
B

brainchild

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
The Minnesota caucuses are only an estimated ten percent non-white so you can't get good exit polling based on racial breakdown anyway; but even setting that aside there were no exit polls.
Click to expand...

I'm a Minnesota resident and I can tell you that the most densely populated areas in Minnesota have the highest populations of black people. I live in such an area and the AA community here heavily favors Bernie. I also know a few members of the DFL party, as well as senators, and congressmen, and they've concurred with my observations regarding most of the precincts heavily populated with AA voters.

Aside from the lack of scientific or exit polling, the evidence is pretty strong for the AA community backing Sanders in MN. I can't tell you why that as, but that's the data I have to go on.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Slayven said:
I think Jeb is coming out better than Rubio.

Jeb never had the false light of being a frontrunner shined on him

Rubio had that and had it snatched away in a 48 hour period.
Click to expand...

He did at the very beginning when the Washington Post first started reporting on his 100mil+strong arming Romney out of the race.
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Y2Kev said:
So is there like a deadline for Hillary getting indicted?
Click to expand...

Well, I saw today that the investigation might not even be over until after election day, which seems like its taking too long, but whatever. They might as well get it over with and say they aren't going to indict her.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Now that I think about it, Bernie won the majority of AA voters in New Hampshire as well, which has an even lower population of black people than Minnesota does.

Maybe it has something to do with the ratio between how white/non-white a state is, and how that affects African-American's socio-political circumstances? I don't know, but it's worth looking into.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
brainchild said:
Now that I think about it, Bernie won the majority of AA voters in New Hampshire as well, which has an even lower population of black people than Minnesota does.

Maybe it has something to do with the ratio between how white/non-white a state is, and how that affects African-American's socio-political circumstances? I don't know, but it's worth looking into.
Click to expand...
More liberal state generally means more liberal voters across all demographics, especially in a place like NH.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
brainchild said:
Now that I think about it, Bernie won the majority of AA voters in New Hampshire as well, which has an even lower population of black people than Minnesota does.

Maybe it has something to do with the ratio between how white/non-white a state is, and how that affects African-American's socio-political circumstances? I don't know, but it's worth looking into.
Click to expand...

I say it's more to do with being in a deep Red Republican state with eternal Republican Governors for life as opposed to being in a swing state with liberal college crowds
 
H

Holmes

Member
There's no doubt in my mind that African-Americans in Minnesota were more pro-Sanders than anywhere else, but Clinton did alright with them I think, especially because the congressional districts that have a higher number of African-Americans were more pro-Clinton than the other ones (although not by much, but still).
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I edited above, but I'll repeat. You can't make good inferences based on exit polling of such small sub-populations; they inherently have higher error. But this is again ignoring that there were no breakdowns released, precisely because the sample was too small to be meaningful.

We're talking about something like 2% of NH electorate. Fool's errand.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
EDIT: There was no racial breakdown of the NH showing anyone with a majority. The sample is just too small to make inferences.
Click to expand...

Oh? I could've sworn I saw a racial breakdown of the voters on the CNN exit polls. I know I couldn't have imagined this. I remember talking about how Bernie swept up nearly all the demographics in NH.
 
C

Cerium

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/705199199541792768
Click to expand...

But Ekai was just telling us that "literally no one" is doing this.

Jack Remington said:
I'm down like $600 because a bunch of idiots decided to dump Trump shares.

Florida went up a little while ago. I managed to buy in at 75c. Should be at 90 after the next poll.
Click to expand...
I kind of wish I had sold Trump at 85 cents just because that would've given me an absurd amount of liquid cash to play around with. Right now I only have $220 to use. But dumping Trump right now makes no sense; his chances look as good as they ever have given the state of his competition.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
I edited above, but I'll repeat. You can't make good inferences based on exit polling of such small sub-populations; they inherently have higher error. But this is again ignoring that there were no breakdowns released, precisely because the sample was too small to be meaningful.

We're talking about something like 2% of NH electorate. Fool's errand.
Click to expand...

I mean, you're absolutely right, and maybe the same thing is happening in Minnesota, but I was just going with what I had. Conversely, there has been little evidence to suggest (anecdotal or otherwise) that Clinton did better than Sanders with the AA community in Minnesota.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
CCS said:
I'm partial to Clinton's Cuties personally :p

I love you :p
Click to expand...

Seconding the Clinton's Cuties bit.

The only fear I have of Clinton vs Trump is that GOP voters may hate Clinton enough to stomach voting for Trump. Also, I did just watch Trump hijack the entire GOP in the period of like 5 months, so I am just not going to underestimate him.
 
G

GnawtyDog

Banned
If the gap in Florida shrinks to 10% consistently Rubio will take Florida. My state is too predictable in this regard. Last election for Governorship went to the fraud in a last ditch bump.
 
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