Coriolanus
Banned
A 0.1 point rubio loss is damning. That's his state, ffs.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
- Thread starter Makai
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Serious question: why the hell do political teams release excerpts from a speech before hand? What is their rationale?
I've never understood why they do this for the SOTU. It diminishes the impact of any speech when you read it beforehand. Either release a statement or give a speech. Don't do both.
Can someone explain how the "most people didn't vote for trump" logic works when "most people didn't vote" for literally every other republican? Why isn't this being torn to shreds by every non morning joe commentator?
Probably that they are done for! 11 days left in the poobio campaign.
More concretely, a 0.1 point loss translates to 0 delegates; if that happens his campaign is dead.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah I don't think Rubio could credibly pull the "I got 2nd which means I really won!" argument with a Florida loss no matter how small it was. It's his home state and its winner take all.
Yup!
I'm imagining the amazing gloating that Trump would do in the event that he has a win in Florida. It'd be brutal and delicious, especially when accompanied by the establishment freaking upon realizing that he won't be stopped.
Right now, we still see plenty of "if This Thing happens here, and That Thing happens there, Trump can still be stopped." But if they're not able to deny Trump a Florida win - the lynchpin of their wishful planning - then the freakout gets ratcheted-up a few notches.
That's k, he just needs to win.
Macho Madness
Member
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
At this point I am predicting a Trump loss in Florida.
Veritigo_X
Member
I'll take the other side of that bet. Demographics favor Trump by a lot. Don't mistake Rubio's support in Miami for support in the rest of the state.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Exactly. The older, white voters who live in areas outside South Florida are chomping at the bit to vote for Trump. These are Florida's most reliable voters in every election as well. South Florida is not enough to carry Rubio, plus I don't see their commitment to get out to vote as high as that of them old white retirees.
And the only thing Rubio had going for him was hype. That has deflated significantly in the last few days. Even Fox News dropped him.
Trump's going to absolutely romp along the Redneck Riviera (panhandle).
Nervous about tonight's debate. Hopefully Trump comes ready for the next wave of desperation attacks. We know he likely has another shiny object to dangle before the press on Friday.
...
And a Nate Silver tweet this morning:
No enthusiasm, LO-frickin'-L..
Nervous about tonight's debate. Hopefully Trump comes ready for the next wave of desperation attacks. We know he likely has another shiny object to dangle before the press on Friday.
...
And a Nate Silver tweet this morning:
No enthusiasm, LO-frickin'-L..
Macho Madness
Member
Do you know anyone that voted for Rubio? If so, are they happy they voted for him?
cartoon_soldier
Member
Next spate of contests will not do anything to the field overall, everybody excepted to win some delegates with LA being only place where people may not get any due to 20% threshold (Rubio I mean).
Roland_Gunner
Member
I feel like beneath all the day-to-day craziness the pathway for this election is pretty clear. Trump gets the nom, and then the Republicans run a third party candidate against him, basically conceding the election. The real question is does that person get enough support for them to keep the senate or does Trump completely blow up the system and create enough bad blood that the party fractures?
Bel Marduk
Banned
If he loses FL he's done
The delegates are winner take all
It would be too much of a humiliation to overcome particularly when this is a guy who has lost every state but one so far
I'm not buying this line of thought that the Republicans are gonna throw the general election away. The Supreme Court is at stake, which could determine the direction of the country for the next 30 years.
When the primary dust settles, they will get dragged kicking and screaming into supporting Trump.
When the primary dust settles, they will get dragged kicking and screaming into supporting Trump.
gutter_trash
Banned
that Northern panhandle area is closer to Alabama + Georgia styeld Southern-ism. Trump country
Thank you for this. What a bunch of 5 year olds,
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm thinking maybe Trump loses the three caucuses, but wins the Louisiana primary.
His base seem angry enough to vote, but not enough to stand around in a room for hours; he's only managed to win one caucus so far. Inconsistent reports on whether he actually has any GOTV/ground game operations.
Clinton will also probably lose the three upcoming caucuses, but win the Louisiana primary.
His base seem angry enough to vote, but not enough to stand around in a room for hours; he's only managed to win one caucus so far. Inconsistent reports on whether he actually has any GOTV/ground game operations.
Clinton will also probably lose the three upcoming caucuses, but win the Louisiana primary.
Nah, almost everyone around here(I live near Ft. Lauderdale) is a Democrat. Most want Bernie but unsurprisingly didn't vote or plan to vote.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I used to read these threads in their entirety. But you guys and your insane Super Tuesday post rate have made that pretty much impossible. Thanks a lot.
Roland_Gunner
Member
You've already got one senator who is calling for a third party candidate, along with a number of conservative "intellectuals" like Bill Kristol. We may think Kristol's a joke but he has deep ties with right-wing financiers. They'll find someone to run and get them $, the question is does this person get 2% of the vote or 10?
plagiarize
Banned
Been fun in the primary threads with you guys, so I figured I'd stop by.
My Facebook friends are convinced that Bernie still has a great chance, and have been posting 'he's only a couple of hundred behind and there are thousands of delegates left!' optimism all morning.
Its good seeing them engaged, but failing to grasp reality not so much.
They think all this 'Clinton has it won' stuff is some establishment media conspiracy aimed at ensuring Sanders doesn't win.
Never mind that betting shops have Sanders with about an 8% chance of winning. I guess they're part of the establishment conspiracy too. Have we checked to see how much 'big Gambling' has given to Clinton's campaign? Maybe someone better get on that.
I just needed to vent, because... yeah. The reality distortion field is turned up pretty high right now.
Most people here, whoever they favor, at least seem to understand that Sanders is far behind and needs a massive swing in his favour, like, right away, in order to win and that there is no evidence of such a shift.
My Facebook friends are convinced that Bernie still has a great chance, and have been posting 'he's only a couple of hundred behind and there are thousands of delegates left!' optimism all morning.
Its good seeing them engaged, but failing to grasp reality not so much.
They think all this 'Clinton has it won' stuff is some establishment media conspiracy aimed at ensuring Sanders doesn't win.
Never mind that betting shops have Sanders with about an 8% chance of winning. I guess they're part of the establishment conspiracy too. Have we checked to see how much 'big Gambling' has given to Clinton's campaign? Maybe someone better get on that.
I just needed to vent, because... yeah. The reality distortion field is turned up pretty high right now.
Most people here, whoever they favor, at least seem to understand that Sanders is far behind and needs a massive swing in his favour, like, right away, in order to win and that there is no evidence of such a shift.
I was happy on Pre-ST-Monday, ST went okay, now I'm back to being shook. Just a status update so you didn't have to read all the posts.
GutsOfThor
Member
Oh brother....
What are they going to do? Pump out even MORE dumb as fuck Bernie memes.
But what's the point? Save face by standing up to Trump? This is all primary posturing and the Republicans will come around after the primaries like they always do.
eBay Huckster
Member
re: grasping reality on the part of bernie supporters on social media - if nothing else, i've really done a good job of limiting the number of people on my own facebook that are like this
not from unfollowing or unfriending, though i've had to do that a couple times because a couple people just wouldn't accept it, but through frequent posts backed with data (that i've recently leveled up into full-length notes)
end result so far's that people actually come to me with questions about the process, sanders' demographic problems, etc., but more importantly that i only know one person out of dozens making/sharing political posts who's full speed on the "abstain or shitvote if he don't got it" train
plagiarize
Banned
It's not going to get any better in the next few days is it? What with Sanders set to win some small states. Clinton is going to extend her lead, but they'll be like 'BERNIE HAS WON ALL THESE STATES MOMENTUM'.
Mostly they're parroting Daily KOS, Huffpost, Young Turks articles. Someone was coming out with that nonsense about how 'Sanders is winning the Blue and swing states, and those ones are the ones that should count. The media won't tell you this secret though.'
Le sigh.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Maybe I'm just salty because no one liked my threads, but people in the OT seem easily impressed.
I'm not sure if it's more obscure than Final Fantasy XV.
I'm not sure if it's more obscure than Final Fantasy XV.
Yeah I had to give up trying.
The closest recent comparison to a three-person race would be 1992 (I guess?); that year saw increased turnout, but I'm not familiar enough with each senate race to guess on whether the turnout bump could save each vulnerable GOP incumbent.
I tend to agree with this. They'll nominally line-up for the most part, and probably focus on downticket races.
The thing that screws the GOP is basic math. If a handful of prominent Republicans publicly stick to their NeverTrump pledges, a small portion of Republican voters could feel okay with themselves about either skipping the election, voting for Hillary, or voting third-party. The GOP's demographic math is narrow to the point where even a marginal loss would result in an almost-certain G.E. loss, even as the vast majority of the party dutifully lines-up behind nominee Trump. They need a near-perfect game, while the Democrats merely need to be "good."
QuiteWhittle
Member
Do they though? The last major party nominee I can think of to get this much hostility from sitting politicians was Goldwater and the Eastern Establishment Rockefeller-types never got behind him, even in the general.
Macho Madness
Member
214,000 jobs added in February. 71st continuous month of job growth.
Will help Joe Biden when he's nominated after Hillary gets dragged off to prison.
they don't understand that a. its proportional so both Hillary and Bernie will get delegates even if the later goes 60-40 in those 3 and b. Hillary with her margins in the south will just wipe that away in LA and MS. c. MI
QuiteWhittle
Member
This line doesn't make any sense. Every state in the Democratic primaries is a blue state and even if you limit the race to the states Obama won in 2012, they're tied four to four.
plagiarize
Banned
I heard polling that suggested a full third of registered Republicans said they wouldn't vote for Trump, compared to something like 20% of Democrats saying the same about Clinton. I'm sure both those numbers will collapse... but I'm also sure Trump will see a lower percentage of Republican voters turn out for him than normal.
His hopes for winning come from independants and Reagan democrats to prop up the losses he's going to see from people who are firm Ted Cruz supporting evangelicals. Those are the people who seem the angriest about Trump. He doesn't just believe and act on what his pastor tells him... and that's a disaster.
blackaroni
Member
Macho Madness
Member
Jane Sanders parroted the "only blue states matter" line on the Chris Hayes show last night. Chris was shocked and pushed her on it which I was glad to see, but man.
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