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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
brainchild said:
Some context here...

Every time that Hillary was won over AA voters by these margins, it's also been when she's had double digit leads overall.

I'd like to see her hold those margins for AA voters in states where she isn't leading by that much, or at all.

Spoiler:
It ain't gonna happen.

And seeing as there ARE Northern states where she isn't expected to have huge leads, I don't think your statement holds water in the slightest.
Click to expand...
If the whole argument is that Bernie will make up for Southern losses in the blue states, then how the hell does he get to the nomination by losing states like Michigan handily? Many of Democrats' biggest prizes in the EC (Pennsylvania, New York, California) are that way because of black voters and she's leading those by blowout margins. The NE/MW states Bernie can win in won't counteract that, especially when he's still losing places like MA.
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
SourShoes said:
Aren't you guys afraid of this monster totally wrecking HRC? He's too vicious for her.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure your typical Hillary voter isn't going to be swayed by a misogynist shouting "She couldn't even satisfy her husband, HAH!" That pandering nonsense works on frat boys and WWE fans, but they're already flying high on the Hindendrumpf; in terms of the general election, that shtick doesn't win undecideds, and indeed, actively turns off large segments of the population.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Y2Kev said:
Anyone notice the media went back to not covering Rubio rallies? Lol
Click to expand...

Losing Virginia was the death knell of his narrative. Now he's just a 3rd place loser whose mission is to block Trump from getting delegates. You can only play the expectations game for so long.

Aaron Strife said:
If the whole argument is that Bernie will make up for Southern losses in the blue states, then how the hell does he get to the nomination by losing states like Michigan? What blue states are left?
Click to expand...
There is no argument for him winning the nomination, just diehards trying to justify his continued candidacy.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Makai said:
Bill has an alleged mistress from a few years ago who is definitely going to be talked about.
Click to expand...

Does anyone really think that's going to help Trump with women? He's already maxed out with his base. Talking about Bill's history is only go to push away people he's weak with.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Holmes said:
It's not because she's leading by double digits that the AA vote is so lopsided. It's because the AA vote is so lopsided that she's leading by double digits.
Click to expand...

plagiarize said:
Exactly. I'd like to see the state with a high percentage of AA voters where Hillary is losing amongst them.
Click to expand...

I never argued otherwise, and it's besides the point. It doesn't change the argument for or against the notion that 'Northern AA voters aren't feeling the Bern', so it's irrelevant.

If the population size of AA voters is low in a given state, and there's accurate data to suggest that the majority of AA voters in states with low populations of African Americans vote for Bernie Sanders, not only would adam's statement be wrong, it would also suggest that there is some fundamental differences in the circumstances between these populations of AA voters.

Furthermore, we're still talking about polling at this point, which is subject to change. If Bernie closes the gap between him and Hillary in Michigan, you can expect those margins to shrink for the AA voters as well, even if it is because their vote is so lopsided. In other words, if Bernie closes the overall gap in MI, it will be because he made inroads with the AA voters there, and they would be certainly 'feeling the Bern'.
 
S

Splendor

Member
So in the middle of this whole deal, I have a question for Poligaf. I have been speaking with alot of friends and coworkers about the election in the last couple days. Many knew about Trump but most had not actually watched him give a speech until his Super Tuesday victory speech, or had caught speeches on Youtube now that he is the clear frontrunner. Most thought his speeches were miserable and rambled too long and wasted their time, and these are conservatives who voted for Romney last election.

So I was wondering are we just immunized to Trump's presentation since we follow the election so close? And if so then maybe his speeches that we all claim are so wonderful and natural might not actually as effective in the GE as we expect? Curious about your guys thought.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
SourShoes said:
Do you not read half the posts in this thread? cough adam cough cough CCS
Click to expand...
I do, and you have a good point. Sorry, I didn't mean to call you out specifically. And adam is on my ignore list for posting all those obnoxious gifs during the debates lol. It's why I said PoliGAF is better than this vs SourShoes is better than this.

I'm just kind of bumming this week about how this election used to be fun and now it's just scary and gross.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Splendor said:
So in the middle of this whole deal, I have a question for Poligaf. I have been speaking with alot of friends and coworkers about the election in the last couple days. Many knew about Trump but most had not actually watched him give a speech until his Super Tuesday victory speech, or had caught speeches on Youtube now that he is the clear frontrunner. Most thought his speeches were miserable and rambled too long and wasted their time.

So I was wondering are we just immunized to Trump's presentation since we follow the election so close? And if so then maybe his speeches that we all claim are so wonderful and natural might not actually as effective in the GE as we expect? Curious about your guys thought.
Click to expand...

I never believed his speeches would be effective in the GE ever. Saying what your increasingly extreme base actually thinks is a thing that works in primaries. If, as we expect, the election is Trump v. Clinton, I expect her to win, but I certainly don't expect her to win by 10 points or anything because 45% of the county would vote for a carbon rod if you put "Republican party" next to it. I'm sure there will be people diablosing when the polls are closer than the wild 2015 national polls suggested.
 
Tarkus

Tarkus

Member
The Lamonster said:
I do, and you have a good point. Sorry, I didn't mean to call you out specifically. And adam is on my ignore list for posting all those obnoxious gifs during the debates lol. It's why I said PoliGAF is better than this vs SourShoes is better than this.

I'm just kind of bumming this week about how this election used to be fun and now it's just scary and gross.
Click to expand...
tumblr_m53t0sHTPt1rxevt4o1_250.gif
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Splendor said:
So in the middle of this whole deal, I have a question for Poligaf. I have been speaking with alot of friends and coworkers about the election in the last couple days. Many knew about Trump but most had not actually watched him give a speech until his Super Tuesday victory speech, or had caught speeches on Youtube now that he is the clear frontrunner. Most thought his speeches were miserable and rambled too long and wasted their time.

So I was wondering are we just immunized to Trump's presentation since we follow the election so close? And if so then maybe his speeches that we all claim are so wonderful and natural might not actually as effective in the GE as we expect? Curious about your guys thought.
Click to expand...
I think a lot of us watch his speeches because they're absolutely insane and extremely unpredictable things can happen. It's not because he's some kind of great orator. He's just hilarious. I am 100% serious when I say this country is blessed by his presence right now. All this ranting would bore people to tears in a GE scenario.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
brainchild said:
I never argued otherwise, and it's besides the point. It doesn't change the argument for or against the notion that 'Northern AA voters aren't feeling the Bern', so it's irrelevant.

If the population size of AA voters is low in a given state, and there's accurate data to suggest that the majority of AA voters in states with low populations of African Americans vote for Bernie Sanders, not only would adam's statement be wrong, it would also suggest that there is some fundamental differences in the circumstances between these populations of AA voters.

Furthermore, we're still talking about polling at this point, which is subject to change. If Bernie closes the gap between him and Hillary in Michigan, you can expect those margins to shrink for the AA voters as well, even if it is because their vote is so lopsided. In other words, if Bernie closes the overall gap in MI, it will be because he made inroads with the AA voters there, and they would be certainly 'feeling the Bern'.
Click to expand...

I'm not trying to be obtuse here, but your point boils down to "If he does better, he does better." So far, Hillary's worst margin among AA voters was in OK, where it was 54 points. The most recent poll in Ohio was a 50 some point advantage among AA to Hillary.

I know you're hanging your hat on Bernie doing better among northern AA voters...and I agree with you. Because it would literally be impossible for him to do any worse than hes done thus far. However, there hasn't been a single poll or data point to show that he's done any better than losing them by 50 points.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
but the population of AA and Latinos are not low in ANY of those Midwestern states. NJ, NY, PA, OH, MI, MO, FL, NC in the south & CA in the west have SIGNIFICANT minority populations. Bernie is screwed in those states if he repeats his ST performance.
 
S

Splendor

Member
The Lamonster said:
I do, and you have a good point. Sorry, I didn't mean to call you out specifically. And adam is on my ignore list for posting all those obnoxious gifs during the debates lol. It's why I said PoliGAF is better than this vs SourShoes is better than this.

I'm just kind of bumming this week about how this election used to be fun and now it's just scary and gross.
Click to expand...

While I may not agree with you on those specific posters, in general I have also found this week to be less fun and more uncomfortable. Like everyone following the race has taken a shift towards the negative. It may just be that Trump is getting more real to more people, but I have been more uneasy this week watching the race than I have been since it started.

Edit: I should clarify that I am not refering to poligaf as much as I am refering to people that I know online and on other forums. As much as poligaf hates on each other, the quality of conversation is higher here than most other politics forums online.
 
B

blackaroni

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
https://twitter.com/BeachPeanuts/status/705453182290403328

Obama doesn't have the greatest relationship with a variety of elected democrats. You know where he has a lot of support and unyielding respect? Michigan elected democrats, and a whole lot of Michigan voters.
Click to expand...
Man, he needs new people.
Black Republican said:
i would still wife
Click to expand...
In a heartbeat lol
Macho Madness said:
Advice for all Democrats going forward: DO NOT RUN AWAY FROM THE ACA

CcpUPWeUcAEUZvz.jpg:large


http://letterstopresidentobama.tumb...t-brent-brown-from-mosinee-wisconsin-he-never
Click to expand...
That's awesome. I'm sure we'll see a lot of stories like this during the GE.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Here's a precinct-level map of the Virginia Democratic primary I found on Twitter. Clinton is in red, Sanders is in green.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_02_03_16_2_48_21.png

A few things were can extrapolate from this map. Clinton dominated in NoVA, which Sanders should have been at least a little competitive, so I don't think she'll have any trouble in any remaining North-Atlantic states (DC/MD/DE/NJ/NY, and probably CT and RI after her win in MA). Sanders' strength in the northwest of the state is probably foreshadowing a win in West Virginia, whereas his presence in the Appalachian west might mean Kentucuky could be competitive, although Clinton won the region rather comfortably.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
If the whole argument is that Bernie will make up for Southern losses in the blue states, then how the hell does he get to the nomination by losing states like Michigan handily? Many of Democrats' biggest prizes in the EC (Pennsylvania, New York, California) are that way because of black voters and she's leading those by blowout margins. The NE/MW states Bernie can win in won't counteract that, especially when he's still losing places like MA.
Click to expand...

Bernie is losing the nomination. You've got no argument with me on that.

My point was about the notion that AA voters in Northern states would be as pro-Clinton as the southern states. The evidence just doesn't support it. Sure, AA voters in Northern states with higher populations of black people may favor Clinton, but AA voters in northern states with low populations of black people have not been proven to favor Clinton. That's just the plain truth.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Honestly I don't even think anyone aside from his mortgaged fanbase is paying attention. Everyone is watching the clown car and Bernie is finished.
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
Splendor said:
So in the middle of this whole deal, I have a question for Poligaf. I have been speaking with alot of friends and coworkers about the election in the last couple days. Many knew about Trump but most had not actually watched him give a speech until his Super Tuesday victory speech, or had caught speeches on Youtube now that he is the clear frontrunner. Most thought his speeches were miserable and rambled too long and wasted their time.

So I was wondering are we just immunized to Trump's presentation since we follow the election so close? And if so then maybe his speeches that we all claim are so wonderful and natural might not actually as effective in the GE as we expect? Curious about your guys thought.
Click to expand...

I think he has a huge problem given that every speech he's given in the last 9 months has been recorded, and as soon as he's the nominee, you're going to have the airwaves plastered with video clips of him saying Mexicans are rapists or kill the families of terrorists or whatever. People who have managed to avoid his insanity won't be able to avoid it any longer and there's nothing he's going to be able to say to deflect the sheer quantity of batshit crazy bullshit he has said on videotape in the last few months. Everything he's said damages his numbers with everyone who isn't a straight, white, Christian male, and that's significantly less than half the country at this point. It doesn't matter if he's able to come across as the most brilliant orator the world has ever seen (and that's a virtual impossibility), he's not undoing the damage of those hundreds of moments he's already had in the campaign with minority groups.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
brainchild said:
I never argued otherwise, and it's besides the point. It doesn't change the argument for or against the notion that 'Northern AA voters aren't feeling the Bern', so it's irrelevant.

If the population size of AA voters is low in a given state, and there's accurate data to suggest that the majority of AA voters in states with low populations of African Americans vote for Bernie Sanders, not only would adam's statement be wrong, it would also suggest that there is some fundamental differences in the circumstances between these populations of AA voters.

Furthermore, we're still talking about polling at this point, which is subject to change. If Bernie closes the gap between him and Hillary in Michigan, you can expect those margins to shrink for the AA voters as well, even if it is because their vote is so lopsided. In other words, if Bernie closes the overall gap in MI, it will be because he made inroads with the AA voters there, and they would be certainly 'feeling the Bern'.
Click to expand...
Personal note... I find the 'Feel the Bern' mantra somewhat awkward and somewhat creepy. Just as an aside, not aimed at anyone in particular.

But the initial statement adam made was a broad statement about AA voters in the north, based on polling data out of MI.

Do we have polling data that suggest Clinton isn't doing will with AA voters in the north overall? Genuine question.

If Sanders only does well amongst AA largely surrounded by white people stumping for Sanders, whereas Clinton does well amongst AA communities... regardless of the Mason Dixie line or however you want to split things up.... does that really speak to his appeal amongst AA voters?

And if he only does well with them when they are a minority of the voters... I think it's safe to presume that Clinton is doing well with them overall.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
That MI poll adam posted literally confirms that her support in the north with AA is strong just as the south. Don't be surprised at another 30 pt rout on Tuesday and Bernie not meeting the AL threshold.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Honestly I don't even think anyone aside from his mortgaged fanbase is paying attention. Everyone is watching the clown car and Bernie is finished.
Click to expand...

He should drop. Its over. Not sure why he's still doing this. His message is out and its been heard.
 
D

Drek

Member
ivysaur12 said:
What is his actual goal here??
Click to expand...

Probably to attempt as much division as possible on the left in hopes that he can give a milquetoast "endorsement" of Clinton at the convention while hoping his base turn out to vote Jill Stein/Green Party.

That way he still gets to caucus with the Dems, has his seniority in-tact, and gets worthwhile committee positions while at the same time getting to stick his finger in the eye of "the establishment" and maybe the "revolution" actually does show up to vote for once and the Green Party crosses the threshold to get public financing.

Who cares that it'll mean a GOP POTUS? It is pretty clear that Sanders, his staff, and many of his supporters see no difference between Clinton and the GOP field.
 
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