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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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So here's my contrarian viewpoint of the day.

Let's say you are a regulator or even a legislator. You work primarily on, say, financial regulation. It's been the focus of your life for many years. You know a ton of stuff about financial regulation. You are an expert.

One day you decide to change professions. Possibly because you're unelectable, who knows. So you leave the public sector, polish up the old resume, and start looking for a position.

Guess what? Most of the positions that will be easily available and appealing to you will be in the financial sector. That is what you know about! All of your relevant experience is in financial topics. There isn't another regulatory agency or another legislative branch for you to submit an application to. It's basically either start over with a job you have no relevant experience for, become a lobbyist (which obviously everybody will complain about also), or go to work for an investment bank.

There really aren't any other options!

So how does it make sense to consider it somehow prima facie proof of corruption that, when people leave their jobs in government, they often transition to jobs in fields related to the work they used to do? What, exactly, do you want them to do instead?
I've posted it before, but your basically highlighting what former congressman Barney Frank wrote in December.

It's basically the same argument made against now FDA Commissioner Califf as being capable of leading a regulatory agency. Or someone with a background in leadership in communications heading the FCC. And so on and so forth.

And again, at its core it's an argument over whether the expectation is that people holding public office should never cross-over into the private sector in a related field, or vice versa. Despite that being their field of expertise.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yeah, that's the problem with limiting post office employment.
We can offer substantial retirement benefits, but you are basically asking anyone who holds an office that after politics they are retired.
 

kmag

Member
Pretty sure there's 0% chance that Trunp emerges as nominee in a brokered convention.

If it's brokered neither Cruz nor Trump are coming out as the nominee. It'll be Romney, maybe Ryan (although that does open up the job nobody wants again)
 

Polari

Member
With his lead and stronger states to come, Trump stands to benefit the most if Rubio drops out. He might not get to 1237 with four candidates remaining, but he probably will if it's just him and Cruz.
 

CCS

Banned
Wont' happen, but I'd love it if Rubio and Kasich dropped out and left it Trump v Cruz. Two completely unelectable candidates fighting for the nomination.
 
There isn't really a site that tracks ad spend.
There's a firm/firms that people use and that gets reported on.
Google gives the following.
Sanders has spent more than $235,000 on TV ads in the Omaha and Lincoln markets, while Clinton has spent about $105,000 in the two cities.
http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/...cle_1f11ba02-0d66-54cf-82ab-5e8886e188f8.html
Sanders has spent roughly double what Clinton has on advertising in Nebraska.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...fb0c00-e302-11e5-846c-10191d1fc4ec_story.html
more than one-fifth of his ad spending since March 1 has been devoted to TV, cable and radio in Kansas and Nebraska. By contrast, Sanders didn’t spend a cent on ads in Louisiana.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/three-dem-caucuses-bode-well-for-bernie-220202#ixzz427DXA5Zc
 

jiggle

Member
If it's brokered neither Cruz nor Trump are coming out as the nominee. It'll be Romney, maybe Ryan (although that does open up the job nobody wants again)
Yeah really no point to continue unless they are promised governor of fl or veep
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
Just thinking about it.... Trump and Cruz have wrecked the future of the republican party right before our eyes - I mean it in terms of candidates... Rubio is destroyed, Bush is in the gutter...

My god. We were supposed to be scared at a Republican machine in full force and this is how it turned out..... who are they going to pull in 2020? Rubio is severely damaged...

If Rubio truly loses Florida in an attempt to get it vs. Trump as well as his Senate seat (as a result) or, his senate seat while seeking reelection, - political career practically over. It'll be a longgg shot for him to try the Florida governorship, barring a horrible Democratic nominee....

Good fortune has shined upon thy..
 
With his lead and stronger states to come, Trump stands to benefit the most if Rubio drops out. He might not get to 1237 with four candidates remaining, but he probably will if it's just him and Cruz.
Cant wait to read the headline "Marco Rubio suspends his campaign" on 15th. We would just need the fruit ninja warrior to drop out and watch the Trump show.
 

Dang, Clinton really learned her lessons from 2008: Focus on not losing as much on close states and then run up your margins on states that you are winning.
 
The hypothetical documentary I have in my head of this primary is infinitely more entertaining than the political drama happening on House of Cards.

Dang, Clinton really learned her lessons from 2008: Focus on not losing as much on close states and then run up your margins on states that you are winning.
Yeah, we were little shocked about her 20+ point loss in NH but then she killed Sanders with doubles of that in the south.
 

Chichikov

Member
Mean, in the Beijing for Bernie (yes, that's a thing) WeChat group -

DPG2EO4.jpg


HUIRvt1.jpg


...

WCzsDjR.gif


p.s.
I like to really extend my thanks to Beijing for Bernie for sending me emails titled "The revolution starts now!".
Yes, this is exactly the type of emails I want to be getting in China.

WCzsDjR.gif
 

CCS

Banned
I like to really extend my thanks to Beijing for Bernie for sending me emails titled "The revolution starts now!".
Yes, this is exactly the type of emails I want to be getting in China.

That is a spectacularly poor piece of decision making by whoever's sending those out.
 

danm999

Member
Just thinking about it.... Trump and Cruz have wrecked the future of the republican party right before our eyes - I mean it in terms of candidates... Rubio is destroyed, Bush is in the gutter...

My god. We were supposed to be scared at a Republican machine in full force and this is how it turned out..... who are they going to pull in 2020? Rubio is severely damaged...

If Rubio truly loses Florida in an attempt to get it vs. Trump as well as his Senate seat (as a result) or, his senate seat while seeking reelection, - political career practically over. It'll be a longgg shot for him to try the Florida governorship, barring a horrible Democratic nominee....

Good fortune has shined upon thy..

It's my belief the party will never fully recover from this, because of the precedents this election is setting.

Going forward, GOP primaries are going to have not one but likely several Trump candidates. Trump has come close enough and succeeded just enough so that people will think the answer is to say the most outrageous, racist shit possible. The race will be stupider in 2020 or 2024 if you can believe it.

Carson also solidifies something you saw in 2012 which is people totally uninterested in actually becoming for President using the GOP primary to basically sell books and bilk elderly evangelical voters in Bible belt states.
 

Farmboy

Member
Going forward, GOP primaries are going to have not one but likely several Trump candidates. Trump has come close enough and succeeded just enough so that people will think the answer is to say the most outrageous, racist shit possible. The race will be stupider in 2020 or 2024 if you can believe it.

Ted Nugent 2020!
 
Should Trump and Hillary be the nominees, I think this election would be the best chance in many decades for an Independent candidate to make some serious noise. Given both Trump and Hillary's high dislike/unavailability ratings, a "well liked" independent could be a significant factor in the general. With the right independent candidate, he/she could be a much larger factor than Ross Perot and Ralph Nader combined.

The big question, is who will this independent be?
 
For what it's worth, he's also outspending in Michigan.
Through Sunday, Sanders had outspent Clinton in Michigan $1.2 million to $979,000 on television advertising, airing 675 more spots than Clinton in broadcast TV markets across the state, according to ad tracking data from Kantar Media.

In the Flint TV market, Sanders had aired nearly twice as many ads as Clinton — 597 to 304 — as the two Democratic contenders jockey for positioning over Flint’s lead-contaminated water crisis. Both Clinton and Sanders are airing Flint-themed TV ads, but Sanders has ramped up the spending as he seeks to cut into Clinton’s urban voter base.
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...anders-clinton-primary-ads-michigan/81175630/
It just seemingly hasn't been very effective at cutting into her 20-30 pt lead.
 

danm999

Member
It seems like there are certain states where Sanders spending large amounts of money is just pissing up a rope. South Carolina is one, Michigan appears to be another.
 

Paskil

Member
Should Trump and Hillary be the nominees, I think this election would be the best chance in many decades for an Independent candidate to make some serious noise. Given both Trump and Hillary's high dislike/unavailability ratings, a "well liked" independent could be a significant factor in the general. With the right independent candidate, he/she could be a much larger factor than Ross Perot and Ralph Nader combined.

The big question, is who will this independent be?

That candidate might peel off some Republican's and independents, but I think the impact on Democratic voters would be minimal (depending on the candidate, I guess). Polls have consistently shown that Hillary has high favorables with people that identify as Democrats. The people that dislike Hillary are a very vocal minority of the Democratic party. I wager that many of them will hold their nose and vote for her on election day, rather than the alternative.
 

danm999

Member
Independent run strikes me as guaranteeing a Dem victory. Nate Silver had an article a few days ago that large portions of GOP voters were deeply unhappy with Trump, Cruz or Rubio. I'd wager it's why turnout is so high on that side.

Alternatively Clinton and Sanders were both quite popular. Lots of Democrats seem fine with either of them. It's not that outlandish a notion when you consider the Dem debates have been so cordial in comparison to the GOP.
 

CCS

Banned
Popped over to r/sandersforpresident. They seem to have recognised, by and large, that if they can't turn it round Michigan will be the last stand of his campaign. If he does lose by a decent margin there, I wonder if his fundraising will start to drop off as supporters begin to accept that it's over.

EDIT: It is kind of appropriate that the revolution will die in Detroit, where hope goes to die :p
 

danm999

Member
Popped over to r/sandersforpresident. They seem to have recognised, by and large, that if they can't turn it round Michigan will be the last stand of his campaign.

They were saying the same thing about Massachusetts.

Don't worry if he loses Michigan, the Washington Caucus will become the last stand.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Rubio refused to drop out? Excellent.
 

Diablos

Member

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm done with the Rubiocoaster. First we were scared of his GE matchups, then we saw his primary polling and started laughing at him and his "3-2-1" strategy. Then we were scared after his strong Iowa finish, then we laughed at his debate implosion and fifth place NH finish. Then we got scared of the GOP rallying behind him after SC, then he crashed on Super Tuesday and made penis jokes.

Can he just stay dead now?

The power of perception. Rubio looks like a formidable candidate, and he has the near perfect identity resume that democrats (and republicans) tend to appreciate. But when you dig deeper you see a flawed candidate who hasn't impressed during this campaign. I don't get why liberals are scared of a guy who has been soundly rejected by his party multiple times so far, imploded in one debate, is running a terrible campaign that is based entirely on his TV image, and seems like a nervous wreck.

The most dangerous general election candidate is Kasich. He's not sexy but if anyone can get to 270 it's him. Obviously his sane appeal would be damaged after a billion plus of advertising on his Bush ties and some of his extreme social positions but still, he's the only candidate that would keep me up at night.
 

Cheebo

Banned
I am flooded with Kasich ads here in Michigan. Last night I saw one Trump ad, 2 Rubio, and about 10 Kasich watching basketball.
 

noshten

Member
Should be interesting if they bring up Hillary's vote against measure to prevent groundwater pollution in 2005 ahead of Michigan in the Dem Debate or Fox town hall.

When Clinton cast her vote against banning MTBE, she was in the midst of a re-election campaign in which she raised more than $74,000 from the oil and gas industry, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. But her record was not one of unanimous support for that industry.

One month after Clinton voted against the MTBE ban, the Environmental Working Group claimed an EPA draft report had found MTBE to be a “likely” carcinogen, linking it to cancers like leukemia and lymphoma.

A subsequent press release from Clinton’s senate office announced she and her colleagues were requesting additional information about the study. The release noted that MTBE had caused “serious damage to water quality nationwide,” and asserted that “Congress should act to discontinue the use of MTBE.” It also declared Clinton’s opposition to a proposal to give MTBE producers legal immunity from environmental and public health lawsuits.

Though the MTBE ban was not included in the final energy legislation, the new bill did include language discouraging the use of the chemical. Despite expressing concerns about MTBE, Clinton voted against the overall bill, which passed the Senate 74-26.

One Clinton critic says her vote against banning MTBE could be a vulnerability. Last year, Democratic operative Matt Barron cited Clinton’s vote as one of a handful of issues that could cost her in the presidential campaign as she tries to win over voters in rural areas.

http://www.ibtimes.com/political-ca...-flint-michigan-voted-against-measure-prevent


Only Maine caucus today?

On the Dem side yep.
 
The new On The Media episode about election predictions was kind of nuts.

Trump is elected, sparking unrest in the country. Everyone is upset and is united in stopping him. Lame duck congress passes a bill stripping him of all power, Obama signs it the day before inauguration. Roberts says the bill passes judicial review. The markets crash, the wall is built, Trump is impeached and President Cruz takes over.

What a terrible dream.
How can the country be united in stopping the President that they just elected?
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Honestly, I think Rubio is out before Florida at this point. He really is the new Jeb. When the question is not whether he will get the most delegates but whether he will get any delegates, the campaign's basically over.

I would bet $1,000,000 that Rubio is not dropping out. I think you have an itchy trigger finger on the dropout button, pigeon!

I think people are dramatically overstating how damaging being a total, complete, scumbag failure actually is to a politician. Don't you guys remember Mark Sanford? There are no depths too deep in this country. Rubio could disappear for 2 years and still run successfully in 2018 or 2020 for some Florida position.

I had a few random thoughts after last night...namely about what the establishment can really do at a contested convention. I think nominating someone who isn't one of the four candidates remaining is going to be too much. What if they attempt to pick someone from the earlier batch of candidates? Seems like Scott Walker could be a really good compromise candidate. And not having to go through the primary season would leave him pretty strong. Walker appeals to the establishment as well as the clown car GOP.

Second thought was on Clinton fundraising and expenses. She's not, as far as I can tell, burning money on ads in non-battleground states for her (which are most). So is she banking money for the general at this point? Is she spending it on setting up infrastructure?

I would be curious to see how much Sanders is continuing to raise. At some point the 2,700 limit has to tap out his small, dedicated donors, right? Or is that just a big number I have no context for because I am fabulous?

BTW, banks can't even give to campaigns. The banks have individual superPACs to represent their interests. "Interests."

But there's also probably plenty of Goldman Sachs employees who may be slightly to the right on financial laws, but socially liberal and even economically liberal on everything aside from Wall Street.

definitely none of these

nope

none

So here's my contrarian viewpoint of the day.

Let's say you are a regulator or even a legislator. You work primarily on, say, financial regulation. It's been the focus of your life for many years. You know a ton of stuff about financial regulation. You are an expert.

One day you decide to change professions. Possibly because you're unelectable, who knows. So you leave the public sector, polish up the old resume, and start looking for a position.

Guess what? Most of the positions that will be easily available and appealing to you will be in the financial sector. That is what you know about! All of your relevant experience is in financial topics. There isn't another regulatory agency or another legislative branch for you to submit an application to. It's basically either start over with a job you have no relevant experience for, become a lobbyist (which obviously everybody will complain about also), or go to work for an investment bank.

There really aren't any other options!

So how does it make sense to consider it somehow prima facie proof of corruption that, when people leave their jobs in government, they often transition to jobs in fields related to the work they used to do? What, exactly, do you want them to do instead?

I mean, it's not just financial regulators. I thought most people in the DEMOCRAT PARTY had a positive opinion of Peter Orszag and his royal wonkiness, but when he was done he went to work at a bank. And after he was done with that bank he went to work at another bank. There are only so many places where intense, intricate knowledge of managed care and finance is going to be relevant! I don't think he was corrupt. I don't think his hiring indicates corruption. If the only way not to be corrupt after or before working in government is to work in the private sector somewhere completely unrelated to your specialty, then no one is ever going to want to work in government.

Paulson got a lot of shit but does anyone think he did anything outwardly corrupt? Why didn't he save Lehman?
 
Sanders has to be careful not to be like Ted Kennedy causing Carter to lose by never aiming to unify the party.

I would bet $1,000,000 that Rubio is not dropping out. I think you have an itchy trigger finger on the dropout button, pigeon!

I think people are dramatically overstating how damaging being a total, complete, scumbag failure actually is to a politician. Don't you guys remember Mark Sanford? There are no depths too deep in this country. Rubio could disappear for 2 years and still run successfully in 2018 or 2020 for some Florida position.

I had a few random thoughts after last night...namely about what the establishment can really do at a contested convention. I think nominating someone who isn't one of the four candidates remaining is going to be too much. What if they attempt to pick someone from the earlier batch of candidates? Seems like Scott Walker could be a really good compromise candidate. And not having to go through the primary season would leave him pretty strong. Walker appeals to the establishment as well as the clown car GOP.

I can bet $10,000,000 that he is is not dropping out.

I agree, this dreams of nominating Romney, Ryan, etc. is ridiculous. If they nominate someone not in 1st/2nd of delegates lot of their voters will be turned off. Think voters are anti-establishment now, imagine when establishment picks someone they didn't.
 

gcubed

Member
Sanders has to be careful not to be like Ted Kennedy causing Carter to lose by never aiming to unify the party.

Besides a very vocal minority of people online, polls have repeatedly shown that there is very little danger of that... most voters polled are happy with either.

Regardless of the run up of reddits view of its self importance, this primary doesnt even come close to 2008, let alone pulling back to the 70s
 
You mean tax cuts for the rich actually hurt the economy? I'm shocked. SHOCKED.

Democrats should be putting situations like this and Kansas on TV year-round. I can't believe how bad the DNC is at messaging.

Sam Brownback is literally my new favorite politician.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics 3m3 minutes ago
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Mich
Trump 41
Cruz 22
Rubio 17
Kasich 13

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics 4m4 minutes ago
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Michigan on Dem side:

Clinton 57%
Sanders 40%

.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage

Trump has Michigan on lockdown, apparently.

The majority of the state is lower- or middle-income GOP and more Tea Party-based than anything else. It's prime Trump real estate.
 
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