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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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P

PopcornMegaphone

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Cruz hasn't been attacked from the left in a year. How do you think senior citizens are going to feel about his tax plan massively increasing sales taxes to cut taxes for the top 1%?
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Yeah, Cruz really hasn't experienced intense heat like Trump or Clinton. I think there's quite a bit downward movement that can happen there.

I'm also curious how enthusiastic support will be from the establishment Republican side if he gets the nom.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
A Human Becoming said:
As much as people love to mock Republican's for states rights, if there's a President Trump or Cruz with majorities in both houses it will sure matter to you then.
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The problem people have with Republicans and "states' rights" is that it's a dog whistle that harkens back to slavery, not so much with the concept that certain powers are granted to state rather than federal governments.
 
T

tmarg

Member
Maengun1 said:
More evidence that Cruz is the more dangerous candidate IMO. 16 points vs 7 is huge, especially taking into account the possibility of a hypothetical crisis before the election.
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That's 7 points after months of nonsense about Hillary's email server, and Cruz looking like the sane one by standing next to trump. In an actual ge situation the gap would widen.

I'd still rather have trump though, sure.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
Maengun1 said:
More evidence that Cruz is the more dangerous candidate IMO. 16 points vs 7 is huge, especially taking into account the possibility of a hypothetical crisis before the election.
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7 points is a solid lead. If undecideds break evenly then that'll give Obama 2012's result.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Box of Kittens said:
The problem people have with Republicans and "states' rights" is that it's a dog whistle that harkens back to slavery, not so much with the concept that certain powers are granted to state rather than federal governments.
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Of course, but that doesn't mean you should disregard it's importance simply because of that. Some people certainly do. I think it naturally happens when your party holds the whitehouse. Does it suck those Republican governors are blocking Medicaid expansion? Of course, but hey, states have the right to fuck over their constituents. It's not a perfect system and in the end the people are responsible for fixing the system. That's what I'm taking about, fixing the broken Electoral College.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
The problem people have with Republicans and "states' rights" is that it's a dog whistle that harkens back to slavery, not so much with the concept that certain powers are granted to state rather than federal governments.
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I wish that Dems would start focusing more on cities' rights.

They control all major cities in America pretty much.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
A Human Becoming said:
Do you two think the Connecticut compromise was a mistake and we should abolish the Senate? That's the sort of thinking you're talking.
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Given the context of the times the Connecticut compromise made perfect sense. Today I do think there is a role for the Senate but it might be worth considering whether it should be as powerful as it current is, although such reforms are unrealistic. I really don't like the norm that gives 41 members effective veto power over nearly all legislation, and reforming the filibuster actually is a realistic goal.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I wish that Dems would start focusing more on cities' rights.

They control all major cities in America pretty much.
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Yeah those states blocking cities from increasing the minimum wage is BS.
Box of Kittens said:
Given the context of the times the Connecticut compromise made perfect sense. Today I do think there is a role for the Senate but it might be worth considering whether it should be as powerful as it current is, although such reforms are unrealistic. I really don't like the norm that gives 41 members effective veto power over nearly all legislation, and reforming the filibuster actually is a realistic goal.
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The filibuster problem is something else that should be fixed. Have to find a compromise! Maybe limit how many times a filibuster can be done per number of legislations (2 of 10 or something) or being more specific what can be filibustered (like tax revenue changes or war related).
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Maengun1 said:
More evidence that Cruz is the more dangerous candidate IMO. 16 points vs 7 is huge, especially taking into account the possibility of a hypothetical crisis before the election.
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Macho Madness said:
Cruz is like the Sanders of the right. Untested in the public view at large. He's polling like a generic Republican right now in GE polls.
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This is a good explanation of why Cruz's deficit would widen. At the same time, Trump is being hurt somewhat by all of his problems in the last week. For me, this really shows that either is currently losing MI by something like 10 - 13 points. Which would put Clinton a little ahead of Obama's 2012 numbers nationally.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I wish that Dems would start focusing more on cities' rights.

They control all major cities in America pretty much.
Click to expand...

It's funny how Republicans are all about small government and local control until its a Republican state government dictating to Democratic cities what they can and cannot do. I swear when I lived in Wisconsin it felt like half of what Walker and the legislature were doing served no purpose but to be a giant middle finger to Madison.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Macho Madness said:
Cruz is like the Sanders of the right. Untested in the public view at large. He's polling like a generic Republican right now in GE polls.
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I agree, and even in that poll that's only a little worse than Obama 2012.

Hillary and Trump are universally known at this point.

Box of Kittens said:
It's funny how Republicans are all about small government and local control until its a Republican state government dictating to Democratic cities what they can and cannot do. I swear when I lived in Wisconsin it felt like half of what Walker and the legislature were doing served no purpose but to be a giant middle finger to Madison.
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Or that southern state (Alabama?) that banned cities from setting their own minimum wages.

State's rights to lord over the towns/cities like dictators I guess.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
A Human Becoming said:
The filibuster problem is something else that should be fixed. Have to find a compromise! Maybe limit how many times a filibuster can be done per number of legislations (2 of 10 or something) or being more specific what can be filibustered (like tax revenue changes or war related).
Click to expand...

What exactly I'd like to see done about this one is a tough because I actually do like the idea that a determined minority can, in extreme circumstances, put the brakes on legislation. The current way the filibuster works is just too painless though.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I don't want the filibuster completely gotten rid of. However, I think the person who wants to do it should actually have to do it instead of just threaten to do it.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Kusagari said:
I mean the real problem is that even compared to other states our midterm turnout is just terrible. Until Democrats start turning out for midterms we're never going to get it back.
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how many have you guys lost in FL? 98, 02, 06, 10, 14

FL statewide elections used to be in the presidential year.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
Guys I'm all pro-Hillary, but let's remember there are many more candidates splitting up the votes on the Republican side. Like 5x more when voting began.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
dcSeJaT.jpg


Bill Clinton is my spirit animal.

(And that works in two different ways. I'm so fucking clever.)
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Sam Wang has graphed Cruz's performance compared to his poll numbers and it shows how he consistently overachieves.
KxP5Wgr.jpg
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In Saturday’s Republican elections, Ted Cruz outperformed his pre-election polls in all three states where data was available: Kentucky, Louisiana, and Kansas. This is in contrast with Donald Trump, who performed within 1-2 percentage points in Kentucky and Louisiana…but underperformed by a remarkable 12 percentage points in Kansas. What’s going on?

Looking at the graph above, Cruz has always outperformed his polls – in 17 out of 18 states so far. The higher he is positioned in polls, the bigger the effect – and this weekend’s states were good ones for him to begin with. Overall, his eventual vote share is typically 1.3 times higher than his pre-election polls. That is a considerable difference.

It has been said that Cruz benefits from caucuses and closed elections in which independents cannot vote. However, when these features are present, he also runs stronger in polls. Overall we have three correlated variables – Cruz support, closed primaries, and caucuses – and so it is hard to say what is causative. The tendency for pollsters to undercount his supporters may affect estimates of what will happen in elections from now to March 15th, most of which are closed and/or caucuses.
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Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
How can Trump turn Rubio winning puerto rico into dog whistle? That will be what I watch for this week.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
adam387 said:
I mean, does it have to be a dog whistle? This is Trump we're talking about.
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It IS a US territory, so I suspect that there will be some dog whistling with this one.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
PBY said:
ONLY NON AMERICANS LIKE HIM
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Look. I love them. They're good people. Puerto Ricans. I hired them, okay? I hire them. They're beautiful. But, we all know why Little Marco won in Puerto Rico, okay? We all know. And that's fine. But you're not going to make America Great Again with people like that. That's all I'm saying. It's like Maine, too close to Canada. Puerto Rico? It's close to Cuba. And it won't be protected by the wall. But, it's not a yuge deal. Little Marco got a win.
 
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