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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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NeoXChaos

Member
whats makes the MI numbers terrible for Hillary? She just has to run even with him with whites and blow him away with AA's. The recent polling reflects thats. She's not winning the thing by anymore than 20
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Makai said:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1194465

Contender for GOAT thread. 30 pages in and still deliberating.
Click to expand...

I swear threads about probability always go like that. A lot of people have misconceptions about probability they just can't let go of no matter what. Another group of people hopelessly believe that they can make the first group understand if they just explain it over and over again. And of course there's the arguments about the unstated assumptions of the problem. I've seen the same thing happen at other forums.
 
C

CCS

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
I swear threads about probability always go like that. A lot of people have misconceptions about probability they just can't let go of no matter what. Another group of people hopelessly believe that they can make the first group understand if they just explain it over and over again. And of course there's the arguments about the unstated assumptions of the problem. I've seen the same thing happen at other forums.
Click to expand...

Having to argue with people who don't understand probability is one of the circles of hell I believe.

Similarly, the "Is 0.999... = 1?" argument.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
NeoXChaos said:
blood bath aint the word.
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Bernie getting dangerously close to not be viable in MS?

Damn, I still cant believe his campaign got the race message so wrong. And not only his campaign, but he too. I have the perception there was no effort from Bernie to educate himself.
 
K

Kangi

Member
Melkr_ said:
Bernie getting dangerously close to not be viable in MS?

Damn, I still cant believe his campaign got the race message so wrong. And not only his campaign, but he too. I have the perception there was no effort from Bernie to educate himself.
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A better campaign could've gotten him more on message. But, y'know, Weaver and Devine...
 
G

Gruco

Banned
CCS said:
Having to argue with people who don't understand probability is one of the circles of hell I believe.

Similarly, the "Is 0.999... = 1?" argument.
Click to expand...

Haha, I was thinking of the exact same thing. That's one of my favorite (by which I mean least favorite, god it's the worst) "arguments" to see unfold online.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
CCS said:
Having to argue with people who don't understand probability is one of the circles of hell I believe.

Similarly, the "Is 0.999... = 1?" argument.
Click to expand...

I'm imagining a chorus of the ignorant chanting "but what about the last nine?" and "it's only an approximation."
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
I wish I was exit polled here in MI. I would be a Bernie voter who would have said I prefer the continuation of Obamas policies and would not be happy if Bernie was the nominee.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Cheebo said:
I voted Bernie purely because I felt Hillary had MI in the bag so I felt safe to vote hardcore liberal.

Whoops?
Click to expand...
keep-calm-you-did-the-right-thing.png
 
R

RustyNails

Member
shem935 said:
Huh really? Would have thought Cruz would be the beneficiary. Weird.
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Nope. Read:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/2...ieties-wins-hearts-of-evangelical-voters.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/06/why_evangelicals_support_trump_129864.html

http://www.religionnews.com/2016/03/02/trump-wins-big-on-super-tuesday-with-evangelicals/

The businessman and Republican presidential candidate won seven states: Georgia, Vermont, Virginia, Alabama, Massachusetts, Arkansas and Tennessee. The last is the most evangelical of the states voting, with 67 percent of Republicans identifying themselves as such.
Click to expand...

Even fricking Krauthammer: http://m.norwichbulletin.com/article/20160306/OPINION/160309796
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Cheebo said:
I voted Bernie purely because I felt Hillary had MI in the bag so I felt safe to vote hardcore liberal.

Whoops?
Click to expand...

If you actually think Hilary is the better candidate, per your own words, why would you do that? I don't get the "X, which I prefer, has it in the bag, I'll vote for Y instead" mentality. If enough people think that then X no longer "has it in the bag" no?
 
E

Ecotic

Member
If Trump wins Florida and Illinois but loses Ohio and Missouri how does the math look for him? I hardly ever see Missouri mentioned in the delegate scenarios but it is winner take all and seems like a state Cruz could easily win.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Ecotic said:
If Trump wins Florida and Illinois but loses Ohio and Missouri how does the math look for him? I hardly ever see Missouri mentioned in the delegate scenarios but it is winner take all and seems like a state Cruz could easily win.
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Trump will win Missouri.

/Missourian
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Ecotic said:
If Trump wins Florida and Illinois but loses Ohio and Missouri how does the math look for him? I hardly ever see Missouri mentioned in the delegate scenarios but it is winner take all and seems like a state Cruz could easily win.
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Missouri is WTA by congressional district, so no one is taking all of its delegates. But yeah, the state should be talked about more. Hopefully we get some polls for it soon.
 
U

User 85168

Banned
Ecotic said:
If Drumpf wins Florida and Illinois but loses Ohio and Missouri how does the math look for him? I hardly ever see Missouri mentioned in the delegate scenarios but it is winner take all and seems like a state Cruz could easily win.
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Missouri is tailor made for a candidate like Drumpf. He will win Missouri.

Edit: This is based on anecdotal evidence from having lived there for a decade. There's a huge range of diet to open racism in the state, as well as anti-authoritarian attitude. So take it as you will.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
CCS said:
One of the few topics of argument that can make me genuinely furious over the internet.
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I've come to accept that if it comes up, I should at most make the case once and then back away. I think at least part of the problem is that most people don't really have a rigorous understanding of decimal expansions, since such an understanding would require knowing what it means for an infinite series to converge. They'll have an intuitive idea that usually serves them well enough, but that understanding can really break down in cases like this.
 
C

Cerium

Member
If the next President had to be Ted Cruz or Donald Trump I would easily pick Trump.

Ted Cruz is pure evil in oily liquid form.
 
M

Maengun1

Member
My family just got back from voting in Michigan. We were in and out in less than 5 minutes. Very very small (and very conservative) area. When we left a car had pulled up next to us outside that was covered in Ben Carson bumper stickers, lol.
 
C

CCS

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
I've come to accept that if it comes up, I should at most make the case once and then back away. I think at least part of the problem is that most people don't really have a rigorous understanding of decimal expansions, since such an understanding would require knowing what it means for an infinite series to converge. They'll have an intuitive idea that usually serves them well enough, but that understanding can really break down in cases like this.
Click to expand...

Probably the best thing to do. I can't stand poor mathematical skills :p
 
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