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[QuiteWhittle]

For Democrats:

Michigan polls ounds terrible for Clinton . Oh man

 

[RustyNails]

Ruh Ro. HOLD TRUMP. HOLD!

Trump has been winning Evangelicals in all states. Its a weird thing this cycle.

 

[Makai]

BBB gives pyramid schemes A's.

 

[metalslimer]

What am I missing that sounds terrible for Clinton?

 

[eBay Huckster]

predicting now: 60-40 MI (maybe 65-35), 80-20 MS

 

[NeoXChaos]

whats makes the MI numbers terrible for Hillary? She just has to run even with him with whites and blow him away with AA's. The recent polling reflects thats. She's not winning the thing by anymore than 20

 

[ivysaur12]

Michigan polls ounds terrible for Clinton . Oh man

How? That looks like it will end up where the polls are.

 

[B-Dubs]

What am I missing that sounds terrible for Clinton?

Dunno, they seem fine

 

[Box of Kittens]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1194465

Contender for GOAT thread. 30 pages in and still deliberating.

I swear threads about probability always go like that. A lot of people have misconceptions about probability they just can't let go of no matter what. Another group of people hopelessly believe that they can make the first group understand if they just explain it over and over again. And of course there's the arguments about the unstated assumptions of the problem. I've seen the same thing happen at other forums.

 

[Yellowtail]

In hypothetical two-way races, Trump leads Rubio by a wide margin and Cruz by a much closer one in Mississippi. In Michigan, Trump-Cruz and Trump-Rubio head-to-heads are close.
.

Is this good?!?!

 

[Released]

even millennial whites?

Millennial whites aren't as reliably liberal here as they are elsewhere. Most are either Republican or just not politically active.

 

[shem935]

Trump has been winning Evangelicals in all states. Its a weird thing this cycle.

Huh really? Would have thought Cruz would be the beneficiary. Weird.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Michigan voter profile

Lauren Gambino Lauren Gambino
Name: Louise Jenkins

Age: 70

Voted for: “Hilltron.” Clinton? “Yes, Whatever her name is.”

I like this nickname Hilltron. Sounds like Megatron.

Is this good?!?!

No we want Trump to win the nomination so he and his party will get crushed in November.

 

[CCS]

I swear threads about probability always go like that. A lot of people have misconceptions about probability they just can't let go of no matter what. Another group of people hopelessly believe that they can make the first group understand if they just explain it over and over again. And of course there's the arguments about the unstated assumptions of the problem. I've seen the same thing happen at other forums.

Having to argue with people who don't understand probability is one of the circles of hell I believe.

Similarly, the "Is 0.999... = 1?" argument.

 

[And_Gignac]

blood bath aint the word.

Bernie getting dangerously close to not be viable in MS?

Damn, I still cant believe his campaign got the race message so wrong. And not only his campaign, but he too. I have the perception there was no effort from Bernie to educate himself.

 

[Cheebo]

Michigan polls ounds terrible for Clinton . Oh man

I voted Bernie purely because I felt Hillary had MI in the bag so I felt safe to vote hardcore liberal.

Whoops?

 

[Macho Madness]

The part that sticks out to me as being bad for Sanders in the early exits is the 90% saying it's not their first primary.

 

[Kangi]

Bernie getting dangerously close to not be viable in MS?

Damn, I still cant believe his campaign got the race message so wrong. And not only his campaign, but he too. I have the perception there was no effort from Bernie to educate himself.

A better campaign could've gotten him more on message. But, y'know, Weaver and Devine...

 

[Slayven]

I voted Bernie purely because I felt Hillary had MI in the bag so I felt safe to vote hardcore liberal.

Whoops?

Cheebo.....noooooo!

I thought I knew you

 

[bananas]

I voted Bernie purely because I felt Hillary had MI in the bag so I felt safe to vote hardcore liberal.

Whoops?

Fucking democrats.

 

[Makai]

I voted Bernie purely because I felt Hillary had MI in the bag so I felt safe to vote hardcore liberal.

Whoops?

Hillary fans vote for their preferred candidate. Checkmate.

 

[Gruco]

Having to argue with people who don't understand probability is one of the circles of hell I believe.

Similarly, the "Is 0.999... = 1?" argument.

Haha, I was thinking of the exact same thing. That's one of my favorite (by which I mean least favorite, god it's the worst) "arguments" to see unfold online.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Having to argue with people who don't understand probability is one of the circles of hell I believe.

Similarly, the "Is 0.999... = 1?" argument.

I'm imagining a chorus of the ignorant chanting "but what about the last nine?" and "it's only an approximation."

 

[Cheebo]

I wish I was exit polled here in MI. I would be a Bernie voter who would have said I prefer the continuation of Obamas policies and would not be happy if Bernie was the nominee.

 

[Basileus777]

I voted Bernie purely because I felt Hillary had MI in the bag so I felt safe to vote hardcore liberal.

Whoops?

You should have voted for Kasich silly.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I voted Bernie purely because I felt Hillary had MI in the bag so I felt safe to vote hardcore liberal.

Whoops?

 

[QuiteWhittle]

I voted Bernie purely because I felt Hillary had MI in the bag so I felt safe to vote hardcore liberal.

Whoops?

She's definitely still going to win but I think she takes it 53-47. I was hoping she'd rack up the delegates

 

[RustyNails]

Huh really? Would have thought Cruz would be the beneficiary. Weird.

Nope. Read:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/2...ieties-wins-hearts-of-evangelical-voters.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/06/why_evangelicals_support_trump_129864.html

http://www.religionnews.com/2016/03/02/trump-wins-big-on-super-tuesday-with-evangelicals/

The businessman and Republican presidential candidate won seven states: Georgia, Vermont, Virginia, Alabama, Massachusetts, Arkansas and Tennessee. The last is the most evangelical of the states voting, with 67 percent of Republicans identifying themselves as such.

Even fricking Krauthammer: http://m.norwichbulletin.com/article/20160306/OPINION/160309796

 

[The Lamonster]

The part that sticks out to me as being bad for Sanders in the early exits is the 90% saying it's not their first primary.

I was thinking the same thing.

 

[Crocodile]

I voted Bernie purely because I felt Hillary had MI in the bag so I felt safe to vote hardcore liberal.

Whoops?

If you actually think Hilary is the better candidate, per your own words, why would you do that? I don't get the "X, which I prefer, has it in the bag, I'll vote for Y instead" mentality. If enough people think that then X no longer "has it in the bag" no?

 

[Tarkus]

MSNBC says 80% of Republican voters are angry.

And water is wet.

And adam is whet

 

[Ecotic]

If Trump wins Florida and Illinois but loses Ohio and Missouri how does the math look for him? I hardly ever see Missouri mentioned in the delegate scenarios but it is winner take all and seems like a state Cruz could easily win.

 

[PBY]

Democrats gotta chill and just vote for their candidate.

 

[shem935]

Nope. Read:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/2...ieties-wins-hearts-of-evangelical-voters.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/06/why_evangelicals_support_trump_129864.html

http://www.religionnews.com/2016/03/02/trump-wins-big-on-super-tuesday-with-evangelicals/



Even fricking Krauthammer: http://m.norwichbulletin.com/article/20160306/OPINION/160309796

Wow dang. Thanks for the info!

 

[Holmes]

Ah the post-exit polls diablosing

 

[CCS]

Haha, I was thinking of the exact same thing. That's one of my favorite (by which I mean least favorite, god it's the worst) "arguments" to see unfold online.

I'm imagining a chorus of the ignorant chanting "but what about the last nine?" and "it's only an approximation."

One of the few topics of argument that can make me genuinely furious over the internet.

 

[The Lamonster]

If Trump wins Florida and Illinois but loses Ohio and Missouri how does the math look for him? I hardly ever see Missouri mentioned in the delegate scenarios but it is winner take all and seems like a state Cruz could easily win.

Trump will win Missouri.

/Missourian

 

[Basileus777]

If Trump wins Florida and Illinois but loses Ohio and Missouri how does the math look for him? I hardly ever see Missouri mentioned in the delegate scenarios but it is winner take all and seems like a state Cruz could easily win.

Missouri is WTA by congressional district, so no one is taking all of its delegates. But yeah, the state should be talked about more. Hopefully we get some polls for it soon.

 

[PopcornMegaphone]

She's definitely still going to win but I think she takes it 53-47. I was hoping she'd rack up the delegates

The race is already over. Now it's just a matter of how soon.

 

[Four_Chamber]

She's definitely still going to win but I think she takes it 53-47. I was hoping she'd rack up the delegates

Now why do you think that? Trust the objective polling we've had to date not drawn inferences from exit polls and anecdotes from online.

I like Nate Cohn's prediction of 56-44

 

[User 85168]

If Drumpf wins Florida and Illinois but loses Ohio and Missouri how does the math look for him? I hardly ever see Missouri mentioned in the delegate scenarios but it is winner take all and seems like a state Cruz could easily win.

Missouri is tailor made for a candidate like Drumpf. He will win Missouri.

Edit: This is based on anecdotal evidence from having lived there for a decade. There's a huge range of diet to open racism in the state, as well as anti-authoritarian attitude. So take it as you will.

 

[ivysaur12]

A better campaign could've gotten him more on message. But, y'know, Weaver and Devine...

Right?

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Now why do you think that? Trust the objective polling we've had to date not drawn inferences from exit polls and anecdotes from online.

I like Nate Cohn's prediction of 56-44

Yeah. Anyone see Bernie's ads in Michigan? How hard did he hit Clinton on her support for free trade?

 

[Box of Kittens]

One of the few topics of argument that can make me genuinely furious over the internet.

I've come to accept that if it comes up, I should at most make the case once and then back away. I think at least part of the problem is that most people don't really have a rigorous understanding of decimal expansions, since such an understanding would require knowing what it means for an infinite series to converge. They'll have an intuitive idea that usually serves them well enough, but that understanding can really break down in cases like this.

 

[Ecotic]

Trump will win Missouri.

/Missourian

Missouri is tailor made for a candidate like Trump. He will win Missouri.

PredictIt is giving the edge to Cruz 60/40.

 

[Cerium]

If the next President had to be Ted Cruz or Donald Trump I would easily pick Trump.

Ted Cruz is pure evil in oily liquid form.

 

[Basileus777]

PredictIt is giving the edge to Cruz 60/40.

There's no polling and there haven't been any open primaries in similar states. so there's not much evidence to go on.

 

[Maengun1]

My family just got back from voting in Michigan. We were in and out in less than 5 minutes. Very very small (and very conservative) area. When we left a car had pulled up next to us outside that was covered in Ben Carson bumper stickers, lol.

 

[PBY]

Josh Barro ‏@jbarro
Josh Barro Retweeted Ben Fritz
Batman is actually the right analogy for Rubio, since he's a supposed superhero with no superpowers.

Ben Fritz @benfritz
He's the candidate America deserves, but not the one it needs right now. So, we'll hunt him, because he can take it. https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/707334670397132800


JOSHHH

 

[CCS]

I've come to accept that if it comes up, I should at most make the case once and then back away. I think at least part of the problem is that most people don't really have a rigorous understanding of decimal expansions, since such an understanding would require knowing what it means for an infinite series to converge. They'll have an intuitive idea that usually serves them well enough, but that understanding can really break down in cases like this.

Probably the best thing to do. I can't stand poor mathematical skills