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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Donna Brazil brings up a positive of this going on long. More voters registering in States like Penn, NC and later states that wee need November. And remember Bernie is going to endorse clinton if he loses or vice versa.
 
HUELEN10

HUELEN10

Member
JetBlackPanda said:
I like Bernie but I'm a Hillary person I wish my Bernie friends could say the same. Instead I get Hillary for prison 2016 jokes and feel the bern every time he wins anything.

So fucking annoying
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Do you think they're joking when they say that?

Sadly and Irrational and overly-mean as it may be, a lot of Bernie fans just hate Clinton.

Me? I don't hate her, I just don't want her to be my next president.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
PBY said:
Feel like this just fucks OH up even more
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I don't know much about Ohio really, but Western Michigan is one of the last strongholds of the Religious Right. If you look at the map: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan

Where Cruz has won, and then even the counties around it, he's still grabbing 33% of the vote or so even when losing. They are powerful and active there.

That's their stronghold. It's long been a thorn in the side of much of the state GOP because, as you an see, it can dominate contested primaries by itself. (Even if you assume only half their voters went for Cruz.) Especially in low turnout races, like for the Senate where they have really dominated. So the GOP keeps putting up candidates who basically campaign on abortion, abortion, abortion, cutting taxes, abortion, oh and baby murdering.

Snyder was able to win the original 2010 primary by crushing them everywhere else in the state, which he then turned around and did to the Democrats. A lot of people thought he couldn't win the primary but it was contested in such a way between I think like six candidates, where half of them fought over the religious right, and he ran for the general election from day one with his whole nerd technocrat thing.

(It's not worth saying now other than to brag, but I was telling doubters that if he won the primary, he'd destroy anyone the D's put up by 25 points...he won by 18. So...my analysis probably isn't very valuable after all.)
 
V

VRMN

Member
Rubenov said:
I can get behind Obama and I can get behind Clinton, but I can't get behind Bernie. I fucking like Wall Street. Banks are essential to our economy.

If the Democrats go the way of Sanders I'll have to go Republican.
Click to expand...

I will honestly be stunned beyond words if Sanders is the Democrat nominee. He needs a goddamn blowout in a big state for me to take his chances seriously. Ohio is probably his best shot coming up and...I don't think that will be a blowout.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
VRMN said:
It's actually funny how her lead expands but Bernie is the winner because of media perceptions. I get it and it's an incredible story of polling failure, but man, the media doesn't really like explaining how the system really works if it goes against the narrative.
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It's more because it could portend things next weeks. But it's the same thing they've been doing. NH was her end, NV and SC his. Not to mention the lol predictions on the GOP side
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Making the big assumption that HRC wins two terms, I wonder if there are even any young up-and-coming Dems on the bench who can credibly even capitalize on Sanders' message going forward.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
Can anyone did up how delegate counts were in 2008 at this point and how they played out.
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At the end of February it was 1323 to 1222, Obama over Clinton.

A lot more races though because of Super Tuesday. After which it was 1056-1036, Clinton.

After Michigan (Jan 15) and Florida (Jan 29) it was theoretically 222 Clinton - 189 Obama - 13 Edwards.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
Is Rubio seriously staying in for Florida? He's gonna get crushed. His political career will get killed dead in front of an audience of millions.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Brinbe said:
Making the big assumption that HRC wins two terms, I wonder if there are even any young up-and-coming Dems on the bench who can credibly even capitalize on Sanders' message going forward.
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Nobody being mentioned is really that liberal. Gillibrand was in the Blue Dogs (but became more progressive when she joined the senate). Booker is corporatist. Remains to be known if Harris becomes a massive progressive in her senate term.
 
H

hipsterpants

Member
I'm actually scared of what my social media feeds are going to look like leading up to, during, and after the dem primary in MO. Should I just ditch them for a while?
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Brinbe said:
Making the big assumption that HRC wins two terms, I wonder if there are even any young up-and-coming Dems on the bench who can credibly even capitalize on Sanders' message going forward.
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Govs and there are 2018, 2020, 2022, elections. Plus who knows if structural changes won't change what voters care about. Who though this is what we were going to be all about in 2007 before the recession? Or how on 2000 we could have predicted the issues of 2008?
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Makai said:
It's a given that his model will be wrong sometimes. But come on, Nate! The drift into normal polling is ridiculous. I dunno if I wasn't following him closely enough in 2012 and 2014 or something because I don't remember him acting like this at all.
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Yeah, it's not that bad that his model was wrong especially since the polls are so bad. But bringing up that hedge as some sort of validation is pure pundit.

IMO, Pundit Nate really started taking over when 538 moved over to ESPN. There were warning signs before that, but it really felt like that's when his ego was getting out of control.
 
V

VRMN

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
It's more because it could portend things next weeks. But it's the same thing they've been doing. NH was her end, NV and SC his. Not to mention the lol predictions on the GOP side
Click to expand...

Even if this is an accurate view of Ohio, which I could buy...he needs to do better than eeking out a small win. Especially when I'd favor Clinton in Illinois, North Carolina, Missouri, and Florida.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
eBay Huckster said:
2008's a bit weird because Super Tuesday was a lot more frontloaded that year. I'll see how the states actually compare, at least.
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Okay, counting IA/NH/NV/SC + AL/AS/AR/CO/GA/MA/MN/OK/TN/TX/VT/VA + KS/LA/ME/MI/MS/NE:

2008:
Obama 653
Clinton 549

2016 (based on NYT, so may be off by 10 or so):
Clinton 754
Sanders 541
 
C

Cerium

Member
Iolo said:
This is why everybody cheering on Trump because of poor polls in the GE is an idiot. Trump could win in November.
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Trump has no knowledge of ground games or analytics, which is what has allowed Cruz to ambush him in several states he should have won. The Clinton machine (which is basically the Obama machine) will stomp him when it comes to campaign fundamentals like that.

I do think that Cruz is a weaker general election opponent, but with Trump as the nominee the GOP will descend into civil war. Down ticket candidates will be running away from their own standard bearer. Factions within the party will be trying to sabotage him. The damage to the party would take a decade to repair.

If I'm Hillary, I'm very comfortable taking my chances with Trump.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Oh well that was an upset. I missed the fun. How much are people freaking out?

What's the net delegate change today?
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It's good for Trump, he's going to win a lot from MS depending on how much congressional districts he clears 50% in. Rubio's set to miss thresholds in all three states so far.
 
S

Snowman Prophet of Doom

Member
NeoXChaos said:
.
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I basically agree. Hillary is winning because she has a shit-ton of money, but I think a better challenger than Bernie could have unseated her. Honestly, if Biden had wanted to run, I really think he could have posed a strong challenge to her, and would have been a less polarizing candidate in the general, to boot. Just imagine the glory of Biden debating Trump or Cruz.
 
D

damisa

Member
Rubenov said:
I can get behind Obama and I can get behind Clinton, but I can't get behind Bernie. I fucking like Wall Street. Banks are essential to our economy.

If the Democrats go the way of Sanders I'll have to go Republican.
Click to expand...

I feel the same. It think it's disgusting how Bernie demonizes them so much. It's one thing to support more regulation, but he just repeatedly calls them criminals and basically the root of all evil. It's not any different than Trump demonizing Muslims and immigrants. They are an easy target for people to get angry at, but it's bad for society.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
The republican party picked the worst time to destroy themselves with Cruz/Trump. This would be a winnable election with a decent or good candidate.
 
C

Cerium

Member
Rubenov said:
I can get behind Obama and I can get behind Clinton, but I can't get behind Bernie. I fucking like Wall Street. Banks are essential to our economy.

If the Democrats go the way of Sanders I'll have to go Republican.
Click to expand...

While I'm not for the blanket demonization and scaremongering, I do think that it's an objective fact that some banks are too big and should be broken up. I don't think that's particularly radical after what happened in 2008. Hillary herself has been saying it.
 
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