Holy shit.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
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FloydtheFathead
Member
Why don't several of you have jobs writing about this shit.. It's actually shocking how far ahead you were.
Shit, Tom's post with Columbo highlighting why Trump would win was insightful and what helped to sell me. I was impressed. You all really do excellent and insight posts here in this thread for the record.
How damaging would this stunt be if they blow off Trump. Does everyone come back home after the tiff or would they be split for a loooong time?
You are head of the GOP and it's convention time and you punted Donald out. What's your first move?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Nate is saying that Rubio, Cruz, Walker etc, should condemn Trump when he becomes the nominee and not let his faction gain legitimacy in the Republican Party.
To which I say, fat fucking chance that matters.
Who is really going to vote for a conservative, non-nationalist party? No one cares about the GOP's non-Trump platform other than the super religious and conservative academics/journalists.
It would basically be:
Nationalists
Democrats
Neocons+Super religious+libertarians+Donors
And the super religious dominate the neocons and libertarians and donors in numbers so it would basically just be a Christian party that wouldn't have much relevance. I care a huge amount about free markets and non-nationalist policies, but no voter in America actually does.
To which I say, fat fucking chance that matters.
Who is really going to vote for a conservative, non-nationalist party? No one cares about the GOP's non-Trump platform other than the super religious and conservative academics/journalists.
It would basically be:
Nationalists
Democrats
Neocons+Super religious+libertarians+Donors
And the super religious dominate the neocons and libertarians and donors in numbers so it would basically just be a Christian party that wouldn't have much relevance. I care a huge amount about free markets and non-nationalist policies, but no voter in America actually does.
RustyNails
Member
Setting a house on fire while people are still in it, then dousing the fire and asking those same people to trust you in 2020. Perfect plan.
Oh that would be great. Doubt it would happen though.
That's why I am iffy. I know Cruz has all those volunteers and how much it'll benefit him, but his momentum is going the wrong way and Trump is a goddamned missile. If there was another week, I'd be confident enough to put the money down.
Officerrob
Banned
Meh, I just feel like most establishment types will hold their nose and mildly get behind Trump while putting their focus on down ballot races
Jeb needs to hurry up and endorse Judas or Pontius Pilat
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
You could probably fit all the neocons that exist in America into one room and that is one of the areas where Rubio is actually different from Trump. A lot of Rubio's platform is just baggage that the GOP intellectuals threw into the party to make it seem less racist and sexist.
Officerrob
Banned
I think Jeb stays on the sidelines
RustyNails
Member
Establishment has never held their nose to vote for a candidate. Ever. This will be their first time and my gut says they will cut their nose to spite the face.
Lots of people actually. Why do they think so many conservatives are freaking out and bemoaning the death of their party right now? These are principled people and they'll never vote for Trump. But what sort of party will they be left with after Trump's done with it? They're pretty much getting hijacked out of their own party as it is.
Basileus777
Member
This what is likely to happen. The party will be terrified of the risks of openly opposing Trump so they will hold their noses and give him enough rope to hang himself and then blame him for everything as they rebuild. Running a 3rd party candidate would be something so likely to backfire that I can't see them pulling the trigger on it.
I don't think they voted for Johnson.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
It's mostly the super religious and academics/journalists that are saying this though and the academics/journalists are super loud.
I don't see what platforms Rubio supports that Trump doesn't that are popular other than Rubio's religious fanaticism.
I don't think so. This is one of those basic honor/dignity things for them - having him as a representative of the country/their party disgusts them. They also know an incumbent Hillary is likely to have a rough time w/ re-election and would be willing to roll the dice on a better option.
RustyNails
Member
Wait and see. I highly doubt this will happen. One after another, they will start endorsing Hillary. Starting with David Brooks, ending with George Will.
Sounds like the Democrats.
Basileus777
Member
Oh, if you're talking about the media and academic wing I'll agree, though there will be some people rationalizing Trump support even there. I was thinking of actual party members and officials.
David Brooks, definitely. But George Will? What about...Rich Lowry?
One that stuck out to me in the debate last night:
- Rubio is for Israel to dominate and not give an inch to Palestine, while Trump seeks a deal between the two (lol won't happen but he's aiming high)
I don't know what Rubio's stance regarding Syria is, but Trump stated he's open to negotiate with Russia about it. I assume Rubio is not for that either.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
SE Cupp has already said she would support Clinton over Trump.
Seriously, you already have Conservatives writing pieces like this
http://thefederalist.com/2016/02/24/ill-take-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump/
Another article on this
http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily...es-who-say-theyll-never-vote-for-donald-trump
http://thefederalist.com/2016/02/24/ill-take-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump/
Another article on this
http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily...es-who-say-theyll-never-vote-for-donald-trump
shinra-bansho
Member
Eh. The establishment can just offer faint praise. Some can probably get away with offering no praise or even backing Clinton.
Behind the curtain of the voting booth many would probably hold their nose and vote for Clinton.
Trump losing in a landslide would probably offer a stern rebuke to the forces that have captured the party and offer a chance to recalibrate.
They couldn't really do that with a Mittens loss.
I guess it's like reverse-accelerationism or something.
Behind the curtain of the voting booth many would probably hold their nose and vote for Clinton.
Trump losing in a landslide would probably offer a stern rebuke to the forces that have captured the party and offer a chance to recalibrate.
They couldn't really do that with a Mittens loss.
I guess it's like reverse-accelerationism or something.
Brawndo Addict
Banned
Yeah I suspect the establishment recognizes that if Trump is the nominee the party is basically screwed either way. Unlike Christie, they may refuse to sell their souls in favor of facing their reckoning head on.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I do always feel sympathy for neoconservatives that actually do become neocons because of human rights. It's always tempting to want to kill fuckers like Saddam. But there's just no good strategy for bringing about good regime change right now...
Burkean conservative philosphy fits with her realist/incrementalist approach to change.
National Review's endorsement is all but guaranteed at this point, which is insane.
Fully agree. A party split seems possible.
Or, looking at it from another point of view, it may lead to a reduction in the social conservative influence for future candidates, since the guy that's the least religious, iffy on abortion, and ok with gay marriage is leading the filed by a lot and will likely be the nominee.
I just want the socio-conservatives to become inconsequential.
Basileus777
Member
Party transitions in American politics are hell and can take many many years to realign, I cannot imagine a party in control of both houses of congress and the majority of state governments is going to take such a risk. It'd be more destructive than Trump.
This is really the most sensible way for things to play out.
We're in the midst of a massive change in the electorate, and until the GOP adjusts to that, they're going to keep getting whalloped.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
If the party realigns, maybe.
Most observers and pundits thought they would realign after the failure of Mittens.
I'd love that. If both sides could get on the same, correct, side on social issues it would be great.
Yeah, I doubt they'll actually break away since they have a hold on the Senate/House. But there is gonna be some vicious infighting to come, that's for sure. I guess they'll have to just sit this one out and fight again in 2020.
Maybe by then we'll have a realignment that goes beyond simple left/right politics? Maybe we'll see those Bernie/Trump type-supporters team up and those establishment types on both sides come together?
It's harder to figure when things have been largely two party and you have to fit such big coalitions under these big tents. But that's where things seem to be going.
Maybe by then we'll have a realignment that goes beyond simple left/right politics? Maybe we'll see those Bernie/Trump type-supporters team up and those establishment types on both sides come together?
It's harder to figure when things have been largely two party and you have to fit such big coalitions under these big tents. But that's where things seem to be going.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump's entire thing is social conservativism though. Trump dominates with voters that search for the n-word, think women complain too much about workplace harassment, think Muslims should be banned from the United States, think black people deserve to get shot by cops, think Islam should be banned, think that 11 million Americans should be deported.
It's just not religious social conservativism.
like the conservatives who constantly argue they are losing because the nominee wasn't conservative enough the establishment will just write off this election as a lesson for why people should vote for establishment candidates
What will be interesting though is to see if the establishment recognizes that Trump has exposed the religious right as a paper tiger that isn't worth the headache of allying with and pandering to (trump panders to them but nobody believes him)
What will be interesting though is to see if the establishment recognizes that Trump has exposed the religious right as a paper tiger that isn't worth the headache of allying with and pandering to (trump panders to them but nobody believes him)
They're ounumbered badly among young people on gay marriage. No idea what the sex/abortion stats are in the under 40 group though.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Young men are pretty much as sexist and racist as their parents and have the same abortion views.
RustyNails
Member
A lot of 2020 and 2024 depends on how RNC acts. If they try to backstab Trump, the party will tear itself. If they let Trump ride it out, they will have a chance. However, the delegate math still keeps getting worse for them, especially if Hillary wins and enacts immigration reform. They need to bake comprehensive immigration reform with full path to citizenship in their platform. Otherwise they will keep starting with severe handicap. But on the other hand, who knows how the democratic party will look like? Will Hillary get Ted Kennedy'ed in 2020? Will the Democratic party also get tired of "Establishment"? The seeds Bernie is sowing are powerful, but also dangerous.
Basileus777
Member
I don't really think there will be a realignment. Trump will lose, the Republicans will retake the Senate in 2018, and then successfully push out an establishment candidate in 2020, who will have a chance at winning.
That ending, though... ;;;__;;;
I'm just trying to figure out what such a calibration would look like. Trump's base will still be there. If they decide to abandon the Southern Strategy, what can they offer to voters closer to the middle on the Democratic side, and how will they keep Dixiecrats when new policies adopted to that end inevitably end up helping out women and minorities? The problem with the pro-wealth/business side of the GOP is that their policies end up promoting inequality, which hurts minorities more, which is a much better fit with the xenophobia of the Dixiecrats, which is why the Southern Strategy worked so well. I'm not sure how they can shed the bigots and still end up competitive with the Democratic party. Ideally both parties would end up shifting to the left for a new equilibrium, but I really have trouble envisioning a path for it to happen. It's just too big a bloc of votes to be left on the table.
I doubt any such realignment would happen quickly.
The "weird" realignment I've thought about is authoritarian vs libertarian. Democrats eschew the Bernie left and absorb the libertarian/business right. Republicans become the autocrat party.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Hmm, we'll see. Trump is hated by a lot of Republicans for being completely unlikable, but if Jeff Sessions could put on a show of being a nice person for 9 months (like Kasich does), then he would dominate 2020.
Trump's nationalism and racism is what attracts people and you could do that without being as fucking weird and petty as he is and while being actually pro-labor.
Basically, people that want to run in 2020 for the GOP should be studying Nixon for the next few years.
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