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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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There's a concept called elasticity whose purpose is to measure this. In 2012, Nate Silver calculated that Mississippi was least elastic state in the entire country, i.e., state whose vote is hardest to swing. Note that his figures have the five least elastic states all to be in the South. This is not surprising given the racial voting patterns in those states.

Sure, but I think that would apply to general elasticity. I'm arguing that Trump could have a specific effect on MS as opposed to AL or LA. For example, imagine a candidate was running on the "Nuke MS" platform. They'd lose MS for sure, while still maintaining (probably) AL,LA, etc... support.

Enjoy your new law, Mississippi

God I hate Phil Bryant. I can't repeat enough how terrible he is WHEN HIS OWN SON IS GAY AND HE DOES THIS SHIT
 
It's so ridiculous how voter ID is treated even after we had that Pennsylvania Republican Leader literally say it was about winning elections back in 2012.

It's like, what else can possibly happen to change the way the media talks about it?

I can only hope that it'll become more of a story as state after state has issues. Or, if we're really lucky, it goes to SCOTUS after the next president appoints a ninth.
 

They're all being personally held up by Bill Clinton.

On a more serious note, the really sad thing is that before Walker and his cronies came to power, Wisconsin was one of the states that made it easiest to vote. The amount of damage they've done to that state is staggering.

I'm just glad Rauner doesn't have a friendly legislature. Voting rights in Illinois are still relatively strong.
 
The more I hear Bernie speak in interviews, the less I like him. I used to be a Bernie fan, overall, but now I feel like he's also a part of the problem. He just seems so ignorant in so many areas, including the areas he cares about most. Sigh.

Fuck Mississippi, btw. But unlike North Carolina, can't imagine there are companies in the state to stop doing business there because who is actually in Mississippi (corporate wise).
 
Sure, but I think that would apply to general elasticity. I'm arguing that Trump could have a specific effect on MS as opposed to AL or LA. For example, imagine a candidate was running on the "Nuke MS" platform. They'd lose MS for sure, while still maintaining (probably) AL,LA, etc... support.[/B]

I don't have enough specific knowledge of Mississippi to comment on that one way or the other. I was just going on a tangent from your comment about Democrats having a high floor and low ceiling. That is, the "floor-to-ceiling distance" is a concept that people have made an attempt to measure.
 
Fuck Mississippi, btw. But unlike North Carolina, can't imagine there are companies in the state to stop doing business there because who is actually in Mississippi (corporate wise).
You severely underestimate their booming confederate flag and white bed sheet industries (they must have a lot of picnics in 'sippi)
 
I can only hope that it'll become more of a story as state after state has issues. Or, if we're really lucky, it goes to SCOTUS after the next president appoints a ninth.

That last sentence is huge right there, and a big reason why I think the Supreme Court is so important. The right SCOTUS could rule a lot of voter suppression unconstitutional. The wrong SCOTUS could rule ever more draconian measures constitutional. It's why I think even someone who believes that Clinton is a corrupt corporate sellout (I don't) would still be served to vote for her in the general election. Even if she were only in it for herself, strong voting protections are in her self interest.
 

Paskil

Member
We're at 848 ballots cast, more than double the February Supreme Court primary for the entire day. Just voted Hillary.
 

Drek

Member
We're at 848 ballots cast, more than double the February Supreme Court primary for the entire day. Just voted Hillary.

That is so fucking depressing. Won't turn up for an election determining the final legal authority in the state but a meaningless popularity test with a foregone conclusion on the imminent horizon? Hell yeah! Thems good voting conditions.

And this is why progressive politics always fails. Too superficial regarding what they'll show up for.
 

daedalius

Member
The more I hear Bernie speak in interviews, the less I like him. I used to be a Bernie fan, overall, but now I feel like he's also a part of the problem. He just seems so ignorant in so many areas, including the areas he cares about most. Sigh.

Fuck Mississippi, btw. But unlike North Carolina, can't imagine there are companies in the state to stop doing business there because who is actually in Mississippi (corporate wise).

I feel like that interview was a complete disaster for him, how many deflections can he make?
 
That is so fucking depressing. Won't turn up for an election determining the final legal authority in the state but a meaningless popularity test with a foregone conclusion on the imminent horizon? Hell yeah! Thems good voting conditions.

And this is why progressive politics always fails. Too superficial regarding what they'll show up for.

I agree with your overall point, however, the Supreme Court actually is on the ballot today. The primary was in February. The top two vote getters advanced to today's general election.
 

Sianos

Member
Good to see the voting ID laws are working as intended. /s
To be fair, they are working EXACTLY as Republicans are intending them to.

They just don't realize that you can only obfuscate stupidity and pretend to not notice all of these "coincidences" such as the closure of half the DMV's in disproportionately poor and minority areas in Alabama coinciding with your new voter ID you get from the DMV for long before all but the most deluded see what's going on.

"It's about ethics in video ga- I mean voter fraud, guys!! All of the disenfranchisement is just a coincidence, we swear."
 
CfTb5pbWwAADMJ_.jpg


Leader of the Republican Party, ladies and gentlemen.
 

User 406

Banned
Good to see the voting ID laws are working as intended. /s

It's actually a terrible backfire. There wasn't a single black person in that line as far as I could see. Totally not what the law was intended for.


That last sentence is huge right there, and a big reason why I think the Supreme Court is so important. The right SCOTUS could rule a lot of voter suppression unconstitutional. The wrong SCOTUS could rule ever more draconian measures constitutional. It's why I think even someone who believes that Clinton is a corrupt corporate sellout (I don't) would still be served to vote for her in the general election. Even if she were only in it for herself, strong voting protections are in her self interest.

By the same token, people in here are also getting squishy on Bernie, on account of him showing his ass a lot of late. Yeah, he ain't gonna be the one, but if by some trick of quantum foam we end up nominating a ham sandwich, we all better be talking about which condiments we expect to see it wearing at its inauguration, not whether or not we're actually gonna vote for it. The Supreme Court is just too important.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
If you're going to be a cliche, darling, be a good one.

Jackson, Mississippi native Patrick Bryant joined XXXXXX in March as a Designer. He earned his Bachelor's Degree in Interior Design from the University of Southern Mississippi. Patrick is passionate about interior design and loves horseback riding and event planning. His favorite XXXXX projects are the Wingate at Needham II, Vivante on the Coast, and the Legacy at Willow Bend. He has a dog named Madison. We welcome Patrick to XXXXXX!

Oh.
 

dramatis

Member
I thought and still think there's really not so wide of a gap between Chinese people and American people.

Donald Trump, Despite Bashing Beijing, Is Not Without Fans in China
“He speaks out of line, and that appeals to me,” Lai Quanzhong, 47, a Trump Fan Club follower from Fujian Province, said in a telephone interview. He said that this was the first time he had paid close attention to an American election but that “even for those who don’t understand American elections, they just can’t avoid listening to what he says.”

His flamboyance is part of his attraction to Chinese who normally are indifferent to American politics, said Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University. “That’s why they pay attention to Trump, who is quite entertaining,” he said.

But Mr. Trump also appeals to a practical streak in many Chinese, he said. “He makes lots of money,” Mr. Jin said. “Chinese people like to be friends with pragmatists.”

Mr. Ding, the fan club founder, who has been posting news and videos about Mr. Trump since November, said, “I admire his outspokenness and personal charisma.” The fan club, he said, is a way to inform Chinese about a man who could become the next American president.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
How so? I know he was against some gun control bills for ~reasons~ but he seems to target mental healthcare and better background checks.

The Brady Bill, which he voted against 5 different times, mandated background checks. He's been on the wrong side of both of the major pieces of gun control legislation he's seen. Despite what people seem to think, he's not infallible and his judgement isn't always good.

Obama now 53-43 in Gallup's approval ratings...

please hold.

OH YES!
 
At least DWS didn't put her foot in her mouth talking about superdelegates again

Many people feel that “Bernie’s been cockblocked by the DNC,” comedian Trevor Noah told Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) on “The Daily Show” Monday. “Is there any merit to this?”

t took a few seconds for her to compose a response. “As powerful as that makes me feel,” she said, “I’m not doing a very good job at rigging the outcome or... blocking anyone from being able to get their message out.”

“I want our candidates to debate every day,” she told Noah. “I’m so proud of our candidates because they’ve talked about how to move our country forward.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...3af0c599?cps=gravity_5035_8049633680855468842
 

"I don't like how he voted on Obamacare therefore everything is political."

Even though Roberts has always been more open to gov't control via Commerce Clause and Tax/Spending Clause that well predates his time on the High Court.


Just stupid justifications.
 
By the same token, people in here are also getting squishy on Bernie, on account of him showing his ass a lot of late. Yeah, he ain't gonna be the one, but if by some trick of quantum foam we end up nominating a ham sandwich, we all better be talking about which condiments we expect to see it wearing at its inauguration, not whether or not we're actually gonna vote for it. The Supreme Court is just too important.

Absolutely. I'm convinced Sanders would make an ineffective president, but if his retroactive momentum somehow carries him to the nomination, you'd better believe I'm voting for him in November.
 

pigeon

Banned
We're probably past this by this point but I literally did not realize until I read the Washington Post article that Bernie was actually wrong about HOW TO RIDE THE NEW YORK SUBWAY.

Home state advantage!
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
We're probably past this by this point but I literally did not realize until I read the Washington Post article that Bernie was actually wrong about HOW TO RIDE THE NEW YORK SUBWAY.

Home state advantage!

In his defense we had only finished phasing out the token system thirteen years ago.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
We're probably past this by this point but I literally did not realize until I read the Washington Post article that Bernie was actually wrong about HOW TO RIDE THE NEW YORK SUBWAY.

Home state advantage!

Out of curiosity how do you ride the New York subway?
 
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