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[NYCmetsfan]

Colin's also the only one who would know the name Paul Ryan out of that group, so they all just defer to his "political expertise" on these types of videos. It's really funny and sad. It's basically a freshman dorm room come to life.

Yeah I saw a twitter rant of his back in 2012 or 2014 so I skip over everything non game related they do but that dynamic sounds right lol

 

[plagiarize]

How the FUCK did I end up on the wall of shame??!!! Wasn't I banned for most of the time?!!

So much for staying under the radar...

Adam managed top five despite being banned most of the time.

Anyways I came here share to share Nate Silver's reflection on why he was so wrong on Donald Trump... and no, it isn't just a list of excuses. He highlights the *mistakes* they made. It's a forward looking, learn from where you fucked up but don't beat yourself up too much about having fucked up, type of thing.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

But with some time to reflect on the problem, I also wonder if there’s been too much #datajournalist self-flagellation. Trump is one of the most astonishing stories in American political history. If you really expected the Republican front-runner to be bragging about the size of his anatomy in a debate, or to be spending his first week as the presumptive nominee feuding with the Republican speaker of the House and embroiled in a controversy over a tweet about a taco salad, then more power to you. Since relatively few people predicted Trump’s rise, however, I want to think through his nomination while trying to avoid the seduction of hindsight bias. What should we have known about Trump and when should we have known it?

It’s tempting to make a defense along the following lines:

Almost nobody expected Trump’s nomination, and there were good reasons to think it was unlikely. Sometimes unlikely events occur, but data journalists shouldn’t be blamed every time an upset happens,2 particularly if they have a track record of getting most things right and doing a good job of quantifying uncertainty.

We could emphasize that track record; the methods of data journalism have been highly successful at forecasting elections. That includes quite a bit of success this year. The FiveThirtyEight “polls-only” model has correctly predicted the winner in 52 of 57 (91 percent) primaries and caucuses so far in 2016, and our related “polls-plus” model has gone 51-for-57 (89 percent). Furthermore, the forecasts have been well-calibrated, meaning that upsets have occurred about as often as they’re supposed to but not more often.

But I don’t think this defense is complete — at least if we’re talking about FiveThirtyEight’s Trump forecasts. We didn’t just get unlucky: We made a big mistake, along with a couple of marginal ones.

Much more at the link. If you're a statistics nerd (and you should be) give it a read.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Adam managed top five despite being banned most of the time.

Don't act like you're surprised though

 

[plagiarize]

Don't act like you're surprised though

I'm not. I'm showing Brainchild that he's not the only one.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Who was that poster who used to just post pictures in here all the time? I'm talking like Obama first term, that long ago. Every day, they would post a cool "photo round up" with neat pictures of the First Family or whatever. That was nice.

 

[dramatis]

Transgender Bathroom Debate Turns Personal at a Vermont High School [NY Times]

Like much of the country, this rural school of 300 students in seventh through 12th grade, where everyone insists there were never any cliques, is divided over the bathroom issue, with the teenagers here carrying out a proxy culture war for their parents and the country. Still struggling to form opinions about what makes a civil society, they openly quote what they have heard their parents say about the merits or demerits of transgender bathrooms.

And the dispute has driven apart young people who grew up together and were once friends.

Some say the new rule opens the door to sexual predators disguised as someone they are not. Others say it just violates tradition. A society has rules for a reason, and this is one of those rules, that’s just the way it is, they say.

But on a more basic level, students at Green Mountain are complaining that a small vocal minority of gay, lesbian and, as far as they know, one — or maybe two — transgender students among them are trampling on the rights of the majority to decide what the rules of conduct should be.

That idea of a minority’s ruling unfairly is what motivated the father of one student to order the “Straight Pride” T-shirts online last week and send them to school with his daughter, who declined to be interviewed.

The T-shirt-wearing students say gay people are being celebrated at the expense of straight people.

Oh, and some good news?

The Senate confirmed Eric K. Fanning on Tuesday as secretary of the Army, making him the highest-ranking openly gay official ever at the Pentagon.

 

[Slayven]

I'm honestly glad there's sane people on here. Least we can have a civil discussion versus reddit where it's well, awful.

I will never understand why people think a downvote, upvote, or any other popular system can lead to anything but a circle jerk.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Also, as much as Nate Silver deserves criticism for his poor attempts at punditry, I still think FiveThirtyEight deserves a lot of credit. They made a testable prediction, based on observations. They ran a test, and even when it seemed to be failing, even at the risk of public embarrassment, they didn't alter the experiment in an attempt to save face. They let it play our and let themselves lose. Now, they're all writing about what they think what wrong, and what they'll do next time. That's really important and admirable. Sure, Silver's tendency to blame things on the media or resort to gut-based punditry are worth criticizing, but I appreciate the experiment that polls-plus was.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I will never understand why people think a downvote, upvote, or any other popular system can lead to anything but a circle jerk.

I try really hard to not insult or put down Bernie supporters on Reddit. My mission there is mostly to just inform. Point out fallacies, show them links to proper sources on why they're wrong or have been given misinformation. Insulting them or trolling them or whatever doesn't do anything. It doesn't help them or make them think at all and just gives them a reason to ignore everyone outside their bubble.

It's challenging to not just sit back and troll them, but I'm actually karma positive on r/politics by a lot, and even karma positive on /r/s4p.

 

[ampere]

Also, as much as Nate Silver deserves criticism for his poor attempts at punditry, I still think FiveThirtyEight deserves a lot of credit. They made a testable prediction, based on observations. They ran a test, and even when it seemed to be failing, even at the risk of public embarrassment, they didn't alter the experiment in an attempt to save face. They let it play our and let themselves lose. Now, they're all writing about what they think what wrong, and what they'll do next time. That's really important and admirable. Sure, Silver's tendency to blame things on the media or resort to gut-based punditry are worth criticizing, but I appreciate the experiment that polls-plus was.

Well, regarding Trump specifically they didn't make a testable prediction to begin with

The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we sometimes called ”subjective odds” — which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates.3 And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things.

It's good that he admits this and talks about the problems with it though.

 

[gcubed]

People outside of the bay area have a much much different idea of its liberalness than if you have lived there.

 

[Macho Madness]

The Sad Decline and Fall of Bernie Sanders

 

[gcubed]

The Sad Decline and Fall of Bernie Sanders

Oy, it's been a brutal few days for him

Edit... what attacks have come towards Bernie?

 

[Box of Kittens]

Anyways I came here share to share Nate Silver's reflection on why he was so wrong on Donald Trump... and no, it isn't just a list of excuses. He highlights the *mistakes* they made. It's a forward looking, learn from where you fucked up but don't beat yourself up too much about having fucked up, type of thing.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

This is quite a good read. It validates a lot of what the skeptics were saying about Silver this cycle (he's being a pundit, that 2% figure is sketchy), but also validates the idea that he's a smart guy who can learn from his mistakes.

 

[plagiarize]

Also, as much as Nate Silver deserves criticism for his poor attempts at punditry, I still think FiveThirtyEight deserves a lot of credit. They made a testable prediction, based on observations. They ran a test, and even when it seemed to be failing, even at the risk of public embarrassment, they didn't alter the experiment in an attempt to save face. They let it play our and let themselves lose. Now, they're all writing about what they think what wrong, and what they'll do next time. That's really important and admirable. Sure, Silver's tendency to blame things on the media or resort to gut-based punditry are worth criticizing, but I appreciate the experiment that polls-plus was.

It's interesting seeing him talk in this article about how polls plus seems to have been less accurate then polls only too. It's also true though, that their methodology for setting all the delegate targets has been a really great indicator of how you can expect a state to go... and correctly called all of Sander's so called upsets.

This 'lets learn what we did wrong thing' is the right mind set. I've enjoyed their coverage of the primaries, and I'm glad that they are recognizing that when they played pundits it was a mistake.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Well, regarding Trump specifically they didn't make a testable prediction to begin with



It's good that he admits this and talks about the problems with it though.

True. It is a good read.

This is quite a good read. It validates a lot of what the skeptics were saying about Silver this cycle (he's being a pundit, that 2% figure is sketchy), but also validates the idea that he's a smart guy who can learn from his mistakes.

Yeah, and most importantly, he takes pains to point out that, while his punditry and "subjective odds" were wrong, the polls were right on the whole time. An important point to make, since this General Election will be full of "sure, Trump is losing in polls, but the data said he would lose the primary, too!" arguments from people who weren't paying much attention.

It's interesting seeing him talk in this article about how polls plus seems to have been less accurate then polls only too. It's also true though, that their methodology for setting all the delegate targets has been a really great indicator of how you can expect a state to go... and correctly called all of Sander's so called upsets.

This 'lets learn what we did wrong thing' is the right mind set. I've enjoyed their coverage of the primaries, and I'm glad that they are recognizing that when they played pundits it was a mistake.

Yeah, that little delegate target tool is one of my favorite things that they had this election. I still think Sam Wang is the best, but anyone who would think to write off FiveThirtyEight because of their performance this primary cycle is foolish.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So with the new overtime rules does this improve Perez's stock. I mean he's literally given millions of Americans a huge raise and imo gives Clinton a great way to go after Sanders voters (as one of his big critiques was the anemic wage growth)

 

[Orbis Tabula]

So with the new overtime rules does this improve Perez's stock. I mean he's literally given millions of Americans a huge raise and imo gives Clinton a great way to go after Sanders voters (as one of his big critiques was the anemic wage growth)

Perez was the first person I thought if when that new rule was announced. I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[plagiarize]

Yeah, that little delegate target tool is one of my favorite things that they had this election. I still think Sam Wang is the best, but anyone who would think to write off FiveThirtyEight because of their performance this primary cycle is foolish.

I wish they'd hurry up and update it so yet more of Clinton's map can fill in blue and yet more of Sander's can fill in pink.

 

[BotoxAgent]

wait Kentucky hasn't been called yet? :/

 

[Teggy]

https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/732781560257249280

nope

Quoting because those responses are too damn good.

 

[plagiarize]

wait Kentucky hasn't been called yet? :/

It has. Clinton won.

Sanders may want them to do a recount... but at most that might net him one more delegate. So big whoop.

If people want to call it a tie I don't mind. From here on out every tie is a net win for Clinton, and a further steepening of Sander's climb.

 

[BotoxAgent]

It has. Clinton won.

Sanders may want them to do a recount... but at most that might net him one more delegate. So big whoop.

If people want to call it a tie I don't mind. From here on out every tie is a win for Clinton, and a further steepening of Sander's climb.

oh ok, thanks!

Just my Facebook news feed keep saying that Kentucky is too close to call.

 

[gutter_trash]

wait Kentucky hasn't been called yet? :/

"Virtual Tie"

Color it grey along with the other tied states

 

[User1608]

So with the new overtime rules does this improve Perez's stock. I mean he's literally given millions of Americans a huge raise and imo gives Clinton a great way to go after Sanders voters (as one of his big critiques was the anemic wage growth)

I've become a huge fan of Perez the last month+. I think he'd be a great running mate and would add a lot to the ticket.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

I wish they'd hurry up and update it so yet more of Clinton's map can fill in blue and yet more of Sander's can fill in pink.

I wish that they (and more importantly, Sam Wang) would hurry up and start doing GE predictions so I can relax.

 

[Macho Madness]

I am in a waiting room at the doctor's office and they're showing HLN. This is the worst.

They're talking about the Democratic primary and the lady is like "Bernie has a chance to win" and then they immediately say "Clinton only needs 90 delegates to win"

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Wait. just catching up on the whole nevada mess *airhorn* and saw that sanders bragged about how he held ralleys in "high crime areas"

Between this and his whole dismissal of the south, his comments about the importance of white voters its become more concerning to me how he views many people in this country.

this is your typical bernie supporter at this point

 

[Maledict]

Wait. just catching up on the whole nevada mess *airhorn* and saw that sanders bragged about how he held ralleys in "high crime areas"

Between this and his whole dismissal of the south, his comments about the importance of white voters its become more concerning to me how he views many people in this country.

I read that quote and was really perplexed. I don't think it was meant in that way at all (he was trying to say that his rallies have been held in dodgy areas and gone fine so it's not a symptom of his campaign), but it could definitely come across in a different way...

 

[plagiarize]

Wait. just catching up on the whole nevada mess *airhorn* and saw that sanders bragged about how he held ralleys in "high crime areas"

Between this and his whole dismissal of the south, his comments about the importance of white voters its become more concerning to me how he views many people in this country.

I am so disappointed in him trying to win by solely going after the white vote. It's incredibly regressive for someone who is meant to be super progressive. I know I'm horribly paraphrasing his campaign rhetoric but when he speaks I hear:

"What will be good for white people will be good for everyone, so lets focus on doing stuff to help white people!'

No wonder he's attracted MRAs etc.

 

[darkside31337]

Wait. just catching up on the whole nevada mess *airhorn* and saw that sanders bragged about how he held ralleys in "high crime areas"

Between this and his whole dismissal of the south, his comments about the importance of white voters its become more concerning to me how he views many people in this country.

this is your typical bernie supporter at this point

This shirt honestly makes my head hurt.

Say whatever you want about Trump but he is an actual outsider and not actually a politician as he claims. I don't think electing a guy who has never done anything remotely related to politics at any point in his life to the highest position in the land as a positive but each to their own.

Bernie has been a mayor, a member of the house and a member of the senate for the last 30+ years. He's the very definition of a career lifelong politician, even more so than Hillary.

 

[sc0la]

Adam managed top five despite being banned most of the time.

What if we removed any post that was more than 75% composed of the words Yaas, Werk, Queen, or Fuck?

Much more at the link. If you're a statistics nerd (and you should be) give it a read.

More stat normative nerd shaming. I can geek about what I want!

 

[BlastProcessing]

I'm sorry but my favorite thing on MSNBC tonight was the Bernie supporter claiming that the NV fiasco was because thy were hungry. Maybe they need a Snickers or something?

When she said What else do you expect to happen?, my immediate response was If this was inevitable, then why is this the first time it's ever happened?.

Was no other state convention in history hangry? It really underscores how many political first timers are taking leadership positions in Sanders movement. It's cool to get new people involved, but they probably should be riding the bench this time around and learning the ropes.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Also, as much as Nate Silver deserves criticism for his poor attempts at punditry, I still think FiveThirtyEight deserves a lot of credit. They made a testable prediction, based on observations. They ran a test, and even when it seemed to be failing, even at the risk of public embarrassment, they didn't alter the experiment in an attempt to save face. They let it play our and let themselves lose. Now, they're all writing about what they think what wrong, and what they'll do next time. That's really important and admirable. Sure, Silver's tendency to blame things on the media or resort to gut-based punditry are worth criticizing, but I appreciate the experiment that polls-plus was.

Nah, he should've just added more variables.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Speaking of messes worse than sanders ticketmaster is a mess this morning. I just want my bruce springsteen tickets!

 

[Macho Madness]

BREAKING: National Intelligence director: US sees indications that hackers are spying on US presidential candidates.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/732942274716422144

 

[PBY]

So this Dem primary is officially a shitshow

How did this happen

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/732942274716422144

I mean, is this shocking? Why wouldn't countries be trying to hack and gain access to the likely next presidents of the US?

 

[Macho Madness]

So this Dem primary is officially a shitshow

How did this happen

It sounds like it went to Bernie's head.

 

[darkside31337]

I mean, is this shocking? Why wouldn't countries be trying to hack and gain access to the likely next presidents of the US?

Hell you even have candidates who already hacked and gained access to other candidates databases in this election.

 

[User1608]

It sounds like it went to Bernie's head.

Pretty much.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

It sounds like it went to Bernie's head.

You've seen how he responds to things he doesn't like.

"Sir what did you think of the viole-"

"Ok cya bye"

Dude has no spine and from what I've read of the months has a really short temper that nobody on the campaign trail has actually attempted to blow. Could you imagine if Clinton brought out the "Honeymoon in USSR" or him fucking praising Castro on a regular basis?

Him and Jane are perfect for each other, everything I've been reading about them points to one thing, people who are mediocre at what they do who have amazingly exaggerated egos and can't control themselves.

 

[Outdoor Miner]

I still can't get over how the clown-car-shitshow that was the Republican primary got settled a month (months?) ahead of the Dem one.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

It sounds like it went to Bernie's head.

He thinks he's a rockstar now and someone is actually paying attention to him for once and it's completely gone to his head.

He went from ranting to empty rooms in the senate to ranting to millions and that sort of stuff has to change people

 

[Macho Madness]

Pro-Life lost his primary.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

I have this distinct, unnerving notion that now I am the dog, sitting in the burning house, saying "This is fine."

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

He thinks he's a rockstar now and someone is actually paying attention to him for once and it's completely gone to his head.

He went from ranting to empty rooms in the senate to ranting to millions and that sort of stuff has to change people

I've been of the mind that this type of shit doesn't really change a person, it just unlocks who they really are when they get the feeling that they are somehow more important due to XYZ.

 

[User 463088]

Don't act like you're surprised though

What if we removed any post that was more than 75% composed of the words Yaas, Werk, Queen, or Fuck?

Don't forget the drag queen gifs.

Ya'll don't be shady. I walk into this thread like I walk into life. Purse first. Yasssss.

 

[plagiarize]

Pro-Life lost his primary.

Good job murdering babies Ray Writz... IF THAT IS EVEN YOUR REAL NAME.

 

[PBY]

I have this distinct, unnerving notion that now I am the dog, sitting in the burning house, saying "This is fine."

I think it is fine

But I'm starting to diablos about Trump