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[Holmes]

Everyone loves going to Bernie rallies but not so hot on actually voting for him.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I saw conservatives bragging about this as if he "got her". They just copy/paste whatever republicans tell them and run with it.

Randos in Texas preparing for Jade Helm are just as helpful for protecting people as government vetted security agents.

In many states, extra punishment is meted out to those who commit crimes against others because of their race or religion. Such hate-crime laws elevate the heinousness of crimes in which people are targeted because of their identity, their belonging to a group.

While hate-crime laws often refer to ethnicity or disability or gender, Louisiana is about to do something different. The state is poised to become the first in the nation where public-safety personnel will be a protected class under hate-crime law — a move that comes amid a simmering national debate about police shootings and whether that debate has given rise to an anti-law-enforcement climate.

The Louisiana legislation has been referred to as “Blue Lives Matter” — a phrase popularized in response to the Black Lives Matter movement, which exploded following the fatal 2014 police shooting of an unarmed black teenager, Michael Brown, in Ferguson, Mo.


Louisiana House Bill 953 faced little opposition from lawmakers; the House passed it 91-0, and the state Senate approved it 33-3. The bill now heads to the desk of Gov. John Bel Edwards (D).

Some states have floated proposals similar to the Louisiana legislation, and a bill proposed in Congress would amend federal hate-crime law to include officers as a protected class.

*Jerk off motion*

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...e-targeting-police-is-a-hate-crime/?tid=sm_tw

 

[jack_package_200]

Everyone loves going to Bernie rallies but not so hot on actually voting for him.

What if Bernie is just a fad? Obama had that same deal in 2008. He was cool and hip to young people at the time. Difference being Obama actually got those young people to vote for him.

He won in 2012 because he had built the "Obama coalition" that Hillary has been aligned with.

 

[User 463088]

Clinton is supposed to be the stronger candidate. You guys keep pretending Sanders and Clinton are coming into this on equal ground. He's always been the underdog, yes, even when he's outspending her. Throughout this campaign I've always assumed I'd be voting for Clinton in the GE (still do) -- as this has gone on, it's become clear she's severely compromised and I think a lot of you guys are too quick to try and rationalize it away. If it weren't for Trump, she'd have the biggest unfavorable ratings in history. That's not something you want. If you can't acknowledge her weaknesses, I think you're being foolish. Sanders is beating my expectations and Clinton is not meeting my expectations in terms of performance and polling -- as we approach the GE with Clinton, that's scary for me. Maybe you guys always assumed she'd do this bad, I don't know.

Right now it's looking like Clinton will still have a relatively easy path to victory over Trump, but it's closer than I'm comfortable with. I've never suggested these early polls will definitely be indicative of the November results, but while it is early, I don't necessarily think it's safe to assume things will only get easier for Clinton. Maybe you guys are comfortable with it, but I'm worried we're underestimating Trump and some of you are overestimating Clinton, and that would not be wise.

Hillary is the stronger candidate for a plethora of reasons. Her unfavorables are, at this point, as bad as they're going to get. She's been through the fire for decades. Bernie's, on the other hand, would be destroyed if he had made it to the general. This is the man who said bread lines weren't a bad thing. The man who praised Castro. The man who who went on vacation to the USSR. The man who went to a Sandista celebration. Give me an hour and $50 million, and I could tank his favorables without breaking a sweat. Lord knows what shit is out there we don't even know about.

Bernie benefits from two things: 1) people don't really know who he is and 2) most pollsters don't even bother polling him anymore because why waste the damn money?

Hillary has this odd record of having low favorables when she's running for office, but they bounce back when she's actually doing her job....because she's damn good at her job, whatever it is. Also, favorables don't translate one to one with support.

I have a very, very, very unfavorable opinion of Bernie Sanders. (Loathe is a word that comes to mind.) But I'd vote for him against anyone the GOP would have put up there.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Btw if you exclude Rasmussen from HuffPo's aggregate Clinton's lead jumps from 2.7 points to 7.6.

Ras polls belong in the garbage.

And CNN still has that +11 floating around skewing it. Duh.

 

[BlastProcessing]

If Sanders can poll strong against Trump during a two-sided war, I'd hope Clinton can too. She's supposed to be the stronger candidate, right? Yes, you can rationalize it away -- I know all the arguments for why the polls aren't indicative and I mostly agree with them, but it's still closer than I'd like. This is Trump we're talking about, not a typical candidate -- it shouldn't be close at all.

Of course it's closer than you'd like!

Trump could be polling at 1% and it would be closer than any sane person would like.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

How reliable are these polls that are saying the race will be super close?

I just dont understand how he's going to win when he has so many demographics against him.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

How reliable are these polls that are saying the race will be super close?

I just dont understand how he's going to win when he has so many demographics against him.

Your understanding will never beat raw data.

 

[pigeon]

How reliable are these polls that are saying the race will be super close?

I just dont understand how he's going to win when he has so many demographics against him.

Not very reliable, because Trump received a boost when the nomination wrapped up, nobody has begun campaigning seriously against him, and Hillary has not finalized the nomination.

I said this on this page!

 

[VRMN]

How reliable are these polls that are saying the race will be super close?

I just dont understand how he's going to win when he has so many demographics against him.

May polls are historically poor indicators of the November margin. This may be in part because this is the part of the race where one party may have decided and the other hasn't.

For instance, right now there are Sanders supporters who would answer these polls as undecided between Clinton and Trump, or even choose Trump given the binary. This is why Trump's support is relatively stable, but Clinton's fluctuates. Those voters will fade with Clinton's victory in the primary.

 

[User 463088]

Also, the places where Trump is going to do well in..he's going to do very, very well. I think that will skew the numbers a bit. He is not going to do well among women or minority voters . Because of that, the swing states are going to be a problem for him. Places like Florida will not trend towards him at all. The Electoral College is the best friend in the world to Democrats because of shifting demographics.

 

[JP_]

How reliable are these polls that are saying the race will be super close?

I just dont understand how he's going to win when he has so many demographics against him.

I forget where I saw it, but there was a line graph showing how polls get more indicative the closer we get. IIRC, at this point it's usually around 40%. But this election cycle has already broken a lot of conventional wisdom so this stuff is probably even less predictive.

 

[Suikoguy]

I forget where I saw it, but there was a line graph showing how polls get more indicative the closer we get. IIRC, at this point it's usually around 40%. But this election cycle has already broken a lot of conventional wisdom so this stuff is probably even less predictive.

This is correct, I know exactly what graph you are talking about. The polls are not useless this far out. But I would not place bets on them.

 

[nature boy]

How reliable are these polls that are saying the race will be super close?

I just dont understand how he's going to win when he has so many demographics against him.

Electoral College winner take all will make a close race (few percentage points difference) into a big victory for Clinton.

 

[ampere]

Another interesting thing about the polling is that we should have a negative popular vote buffer due to the electoral college. So there isn't a tremendous cause for concern even if polls are close-ish

What I mean is, Hillary could lose the popular vote by ~3% and still win the election. I say this based on the 538 demographic tool with both college and non-college white voter turnout adjusted to 100% while leaving everything else at defaults.

The result is:
DEMOCRATS
ELECTORAL VOTES: 272 ✔
POPULAR VOTE: 47.7%
REPUBLICANS
ELECTORAL VOTES: 266
POPULAR VOTE: 50.6%

 

[JP_]

Another interesting thing about the polling is that we should have a negative popular vote buffer due to the electoral college. So there isn't a tremendous cause for concern even if polls are close-ish

What I mean is, Hillary could lose the popular vote by ~3% and still win the election. I say this based on the 538 demographic tool with both college and non-college white voter turnout adjusted to 100% while leaving everything else at defaults.

The result is:
DEMOCRATS
ELECTORAL VOTES: 272 ✔
POPULAR VOTE: 47.7%
REPUBLICANS
ELECTORAL VOTES: 266
POPULAR VOTE: 50.6%

Considering Trump/Republican support of violence, this is less comforting than it otherwise might be.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

What if Bernie is just a fad? Obama had that same deal in 2008. He was cool and hip to young people at the time. Difference being Obama actually got those young people to vote for him.

He won in 2012 because he had built the "Obama coalition" that Hillary has been aligned with.

I still say no one will even know who Sanders is in about 8 years. I mean, can any of these Sanders people tell me who lost to Kerry in '04? How about who lost to Bush or Gore in 2000?

History doesn't remember losers.

 

[User 463088]

I still say no one will even know who Sanders is in about 8 years. I mean, can any of these Sanders people tell me who lost to Kerry in '04? How about who lost to Bush or Gore in 2000?

History doesn't remember losers.

I doubt most Americans, irrespective of who they support, could name John Kerry as the 2004 nominee.

(It was Kerry, Gephardt, Dean, Clark and Edwards, right? Did Kusinich run then too? I think he did....)

 

[B-Dubs]

I doubt most Americans, irrespective of who they support, could name John Kerry as the 2004 nominee.

(It was Kerry, Gephardt, Dean, Clark and Edwards, right? Did Kusinich run then too? I think he did....)

Kusinich was in there too.

 

[SheSaidNo]

I still say no one will even know who Sanders is in about 8 years. I mean, can any of these Sanders people tell me who lost to Kerry in '04? How about who lost to Bush or Gore in 2000?

History doesn't remember losers.

Not always true, Jesse Jackson is still remembered quite well

 

[NeoXChaos]

Kusinich was in there too.

Erasure could tell you about Kusinich.

 

[User 463088]

Kusinich was in there too.

Was that his Dept of Peace year or was that in 2008?

 

[B-Dubs]

Was that his Dept of Peace year or was that in 2008?

He had been introducing that one every two years since 2002.

 

[eBay Huckster]

And he gets this number from???

Probably the same place he stashed all those missing donations to his disbanded charities.

Or the same place he got that "all voters in Washington should count for the purposes of popular vote calculation even if they didn't even participate this year"

Btw if you exclude Rasmussen from HuffPo's aggregate Clinton's lead jumps from 2.7 points to 7.6.

Ras polls belong in the garbage.

FWIW, HuffPo's aggregate has something really fucking wonky going on with its smoothing algorithm, and that lead should be more like 4.2 based on the polls actually being shown there.

(e: And that's not even including the +11.)

This somewhat goes against the narrative I see on GAF where everybody supporting Sanders is an uneducated closet racist white guy. http://www.gallup.com/poll/191465/millennials-sanders-dislike-election-process.aspx

What I'm seeing is white people being the only racial group with a statistically significant difference in favorability and it's skewing everything else.

 

[User 463088]

He had been introducing that one every two years since 2002.

Oh okay. I barely remember the 2004 primary for some reason. I just now remembered Leiberman ran then. Fuck. What a mess.

 

[eBay Huckster]

State polls (in swing states) are more relevant, but national polls are better than nothing.

And even so, we ain't got shit yet.

 

[B-Dubs]

Oh okay. I barely remember the 2004 primary for some reason. I just now remembered Leiberman ran then. Fuck. What a mess.

I had to look it up myself.

 

[rokkerkory]

old? http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/20/politics/trump-veterans-6-million-not-raised/index.html

Trump raises less than half of what he said for vets. bleh

 

[Sirpopopop]

https://twitter.com/DungeonsDonald?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Nobody reads the Monster Manual more than me. The '79 edition means a lot, but I don't want to get into specifics.

Tomb of Horrors is scary, like Vietnam. It is my personal Vietnam. I feel like a great and very brave warrior. #dnd

Tons more gems like that on the twitter feed.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So I just saw Bernie is supporting DWS primary opponent. And he is surprised she doesn't like him?

 

[pigeon]

So I just saw Bernie is supporting DWS primary opponent. And he is surprised she doesn't like him?

I feel like there is a running theme throughout pretty much all Bernie-related issues where Bernie or his supporters condemn and attack the DNC and Democratic politicians and then complain that their response is too aggressive or that they're using the system against him.

Like, what are you expecting to have happen? There's no right to yell at people and not have them be mad at you.

 

[Macho Madness]

I feel like there is a running theme throughout pretty much all Bernie-related issues where Bernie or his supporters condemn and attack the DNC and Democratic politicians and then complain that their response is too aggressive or that they're using the system against him.

Like, what are you expecting to have happen? There's no right to yell at people and not have them be mad at you.

If I'm correct, I have license to scream at you.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

So I just saw Bernie is supporting DWS primary opponent. And he is surprised she doesn't like him?

Wait, actual down ticket support from Bernie ?!?!

 

[Holmes]

The Minnesota legislsture passed a presidential primary bill. Starting in 2020, it'll be an open primary. Dayton said he'll sign.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 8m8 minutes ago
(And that Sanders's voters aren't going to vote in a non presidential primary)

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 10m10 minutes ago
In general, a challenge with converting the Sanders coalition into challenging Ds from the left is that he didn't excel in Dem districts

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 17m17 minutes ago
Nate Cohn Retweeted Ed O'Keefe
Clinton beat Sanders by a 68-31 margin in DWS district

Matthew Isbell ‏@mcimaps 35s36 seconds ago
@davidshor @Nate_Cohn and remember her district is changing this year, under new lines its 69-30 Clinton

 

[itschris]

The Minnesota legislsture passed a presidential primary bill. Starting in 2020, it'll be an open primary. Dayton said he'll sign.

Good news. I hope this becomes a trend and more states dump caucuses.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Good news. I hope this becomes a trend and more states dump caucuses.

i'd be down with every state w/ more than 40 pledged delegates dumping theirs

 

[Makai]

Change the thread title to Vennghazi, you fools

 

[Iolo]

what's with the people trying to change the results of a democratically chosen thread title. go harass some superdelegates or something

 

[nature boy]

And even so, we ain't got shit yet.

Well there is some polls, but it's May so yeah.

But I would love to see some Texas polls to be honest.

 

[gaugebozo]

what's with the people trying to change the results of a democratically chosen thread title. go harass some superdelegates or something

Mods are undemocratic and archaic. Down with mods!

Wait, we can try to convince them to change things the way we want them? I love mods! I'm confident they will come around to my favorite thread title, "Alan Keyes is what this Country Neyes. Find your Keyes!"

 

[AntoneM]

*Jerk off motion*

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...e-targeting-police-is-a-hate-crime/?tid=sm_tw

Finally, something Republicans and Democrats can agree on... Fascism!

 

[ampere]

Old people are so bored they vote in primaries, while young people are busy with dank memes

 

[Macho Madness]

 

[3phemeral]

Why does "Latino" have to be all italicized, in red, and font that looks like it'd be used for a hot sauce bottle?

 

[pigeon]

Why does "Latino" have to be all italicized, in red, and font that looks like it'd be used for a hot sauce bottle?

Presumably Fox News's style guide requires comical letter treatments for all minority words.

We should check if they played any mariachi music when they showed the slide.

 

[Makai]

Fox News Latino is a separate brand, like Fox Business. They're using the logo of the brand that commissioned the poll, not just highlighting the word latino.

 

[Teggy]

Were they saying it was a dead heat?

 

[pigeon]

Fox News Latino is a separate brand, like Fox Business. They're using the logo of the brand that commissioned the poll, not just highlighting the word latino.

That is actually worse, because then my joke post is actually correct and their style guide really DOES require them to do that letter treatment every time they write that phrase because it's a deliberate part of their branding.

 

[sc0la]

Were they saying it was a dead heat?

la muerte caliente