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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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Tarkus

Tarkus

Member
itschris said:
Hmm, how about a Bernie tattoo instead?

3cziAv8.jpg
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Her future looks bright. She should have just gotten "Let's go fuck some whores!"
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Tranqueris said:
Well.. At least she did it in such a way that lets her remove the Bernie part down the line so she can still be left with a burning fist tattoo.

Also I've now started googling for people with Ron Paul tattoos.

I went too far down this "politician tattoo on person's body" rabbit hole.

I.. I don't understand.
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no-ragrets-1.jpg
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
The fist tattoo has 5 fingers, look closely. they are just overlapped to fit inside what assume is Bernies anus. Oh wait that's fire.
sphagnum said:
How has Jacobin harassed Sarah Kendzior for past two years? AFAIK the incident was a big mess where both sides made a bunch of mistakes. That's the impression that I've gotten from trying to read up on it.

I'm sure there are misogynist leftists who have abused her via twitter but there hasn't been some sort of concerted campaign on Jacobin's part to do anything like that.
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I tried to look this up and found more Matt Bruenig grossness. Decided I was better off just closing the tabs.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Election model predicts Clinton over Trump


President Obama’s strong approval rating is bolstering Democratic chances of holding the White House, according to a closely followed election model.

Moody’s Analytics is forecasting that the Democratic nominee, who is widely expected to be Hillary Clinton, will win the presidency in November over presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.

“President Obama’s approval rating has crossed over the important 50 percent threshold for the first time in almost four years,” said Dan White, a Moody’s economist who oversees the model.
Aside from rising gasoline prices, a drop in Obama’s approval rating is the only model variable that could possibly move far and fast enough to push the model in Republicans’ favor by November, White said.

“This sudden surge could be a result of the messy primary season or a relative lull in geopolitical news from overseas,” White said.

Moody’s latest model shows for the third straight month that the Democratic nominee would take 332 electoral votes compared with 206 for the Republican nominee. The model has predicted every election correctly since it was created in 1980.

Democrats also are running ahead, although by narrow margins, in the key swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida and Nevada.

The model has predicted a Democratic victory in 2016 since its first forecast was released in July 2015.

The president's approval rating is a first-time variable added into the model for this election cycle and White said it has proven significant historically, "and back-tested extremely well, particularly in other atypical election cycles.”

He cited the 1988 election, when Republicans pulled off the rare feat of winning the White House for three straight terms.
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More at the link.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
There's this fun opt-in survey thrown up by /r/enoughsandersspam, if you're bored.
Survey (short): https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1Exr4NI_ISdJ_qIPddNCM0uXfitMBfKbZOuVXzz7lzIo/viewform
Results: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1Ex...KbZOuVXzz7lzIo/viewanalytics?usp=form_confirm

Most of the questions are standard Reddit demographic stuff; males, whites, educated. It's mostly dull but I'll put up a few highlights. Sample size ~1100 as I'm writing this.

  • 35% list their "biggest" reason for the hatred as "His supporters won't shut the fuck up[.]"
  • Median time of growing to hate him is a fairly undefined segment around the start of the year but before Super Tuesday.
  • Only 45% have previously witnessed an open Democratic primary season.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
aspiegamer said:
There's this fun opt-in survey thrown up by /r/enoughsandersspam, if you're bored.
Survey (short): https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1Exr4NI_ISdJ_qIPddNCM0uXfitMBfKbZOuVXzz7lzIo/viewform
Results: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1Ex...KbZOuVXzz7lzIo/viewanalytics?usp=form_confirm

Most of the questions are standard Reddit demographic stuff; males, whites, educated. It's mostly dull but I'll put up a few highlights. Sample size ~1100 as I'm writing this.

  • 35% list their "biggest" reason for the hatred as "His supporters won't shut the fuck up[.]"
  • Median time of growing to hate him is a fairly undefined segment around the start of the year but before Super Tuesday.
  • Only 45% have previously witnessed an open Democratic primary season.
Click to expand...

Well, his supporters won't shut up, he always comes off as so angry, he rails against the establishment which if he wants to get anything fucking done he'll need the support of thaf establishment... There are numerous reasons to not like him.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
adam387 said:
Besides, i came out the womb in full drag. I came out purse first. Hair did. Nails on fucking point. Makeup ROCKING. I was fully tucked...thank you.

True story my mom offered me $1000 to go to pride in drag this year. hahahahah



i have self resepct too.
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Come out of the vagina purse first. BAM!
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
It's only May and de-Rassing the poll aggregates is already fun! Currently responsible for a 1.5 point swing on TPM's poll tracker.

Ahhh, this takes me back.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Trump's numbers among women are downright nasty in that NYT poll. Obama won women by about 11% in 2012, and it looks like Hillary could land somewhere between 15 and 20%. I don't see how Trump has a chance if that holds.
 
M

Makai

Member
"Would you take a few minutes to talk to him and consider him as your running mate?" she asked on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" Friday.

"Wow that's a great question," Trump said. "The one thing that Bernie Sanders and I have in common --and I do have much bigger crowds than him-- I actually do, Joe and Mika know that. He is second, I will say that. But I will say this: We have one thing very strongly in common. We know that the U.S. is being taken advantage of horribly on trade deals. The difference between Bernie and myself is, I know how to make those deals fantastic and he has no idea."
 
R

royalan

Member
Yes, Bernie Sanders, the System Is Rigged—What Else Is New?

When Sanders complains that the Democratic primary is rigged against an independent candidate, he sounds like a white sorority complaining that they lost the step show on points because this year’s theme was “Dark and Lovely.” It takes a lot of gall to show up with a membership card so new the ink is wet and start complaining about the process. Now that same sorority is tearing up the gym, throwing chairs and threatening to go all the way to the Pan-Hellenic Council if they don’t get their way. Just because you lost something doesn’t mean it was stolen—unless you’re dipped in the kind of privilege that tells you something is owed to you to begin with.

African-American Democrats have every right not to like Hillary Clinton, who wore her white privilege like a ski mask in 2008 and whose policy history leaves a lot to be desired. But that doesn’t make the self-righteous complaining of Sanders any easier to stomach. Yes, Sanders has been a freedom fighter for progressive causes for decades, but when it comes to the Democratic primary, he and his supporters have been consummate whiners reeking of privilege.

You want to talk about a rigged system? Look at Shirley Chisholm, Keyes, the Rev. Jesse Jackson or, even better, ask Democratic state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal of Missouri, Republican Lenny McAllister in Pennsylvania, or dozens of other African-American Democrats and Republicans who are actual long-term party members who were betrayed in their primaries. If Sanders wants to be a part of the system, he has to find a way to beat it, then take it apart from the inside—not start halfway, then begin flipping chairs when the numbers aren’t adding up in his favor. Protest appeals to black voters, revolution appeals to black voters, but whining doesn’t. It has not always been clear that the Sanders campaign knows the difference.
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Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Ignatz Mouse said:
That Hillary thread turned into some good discussion.

We're always dissing OT threads, thought I'd call out a good one.
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The statement Hillary made was pretty much a fact. It's hard to argue without "yeah well you're a bitch" so I think it ended up working out pretty well!
 
G

gcubed

Member
To the poster who said no republican would win the presidency without a revamp. It's hard to argue with gut feelings, but Romney would have won this year. I think that even lil Marco would have been very very close, even with his shitty debate performance.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Mat bruenig raised a few grand off being a dick to women on twitter.

And Bernie bros are the ones complaining about correct the record?
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
gcubed said:
To the poster who said no republican would win the presidency without a revamp. It's hard to argue with gut feelings, but Romney would have won this year. I think that even lil Marco would have been very very close, even with his shitty debate performance.
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Hard to say about Rubio because he was never really vetted, but I think Romney would have run into the exact same coalition he did last time. People who think Obama did a good job are almost all Clinton supporters. Running as if you're going to be the third term of Obama may not have seemed like the best strategy at the start of this, but as Obama's approvals continue to go up and up...

It's looking like a pretty shrewd one.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Meanwhile the keys to the White House are indicating a GOP win, so we'll see what holds up better.

With the redskins rule dead and buried we're running out of wacky coincidences.

Incidentally that 332-206 margin is exactly what Obama achieved in 2012.
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Could you provide a link? I'm seeing a Democrat win.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
nature boy said:
Could you provide a link? I'm seeing a Democrat win.
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For some reason I seemed to remember Lichtman saying it pointed to a GOP win because Democrats lost the "no significant primary challenge" key, but I can't find it. Maybe I just imagined it.

The interview I found with Lichtman said he's unsure about the challenge key (because Bernie never really had a chance, but that hasn't stopped him) and the foreign policy success key (based on the Iran deal, which Obama has had a hard time selling to the public). I imagine if Democrats win the election he'll retroactively give them those keys. I would right now!
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
For some reason I seemed to remember Lichtman saying it pointed to a GOP win because Democrats lost the "no significant primary challenge" key, but I can't find it. Maybe I just imagined it.

The interview I found with Lichtman said he's unsure about the challenge key (because Bernie never really had a chance, but that hasn't stopped him) and the foreign policy success key (based on the Iran deal, which Obama has had a hard time selling to the public). I imagine if Democrats win the election he'll retroactively give them those keys. I would right now!
Click to expand...

I'm not a fan of such models. It places too much importance onto things that may not have much predictive value. You can't really tell if you're seeing patterns that aren't there until one of them stops holding up. Maybe they're a true predictor, or maybe they're like that sports game that held up for decades until it didn't, which clearly was just a statistical anomaly that had zero bearing on the contest.

A lot of contests end up being practical coin flips. So it's very hard to just look at historical trends and know which are and aren't true factors.

Foreign policy is likely a key, but whether they had true challenge in the primaries quite possibly isn't... and it's a judgement call. So you can easily decide Bernie was a challenge after the fact if Clinton wins, and that he wasn't if she doesn't.
 
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