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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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Teggy

Member
Crazy Trump guy that lives near me has swapped out his car again. I noticed that it says donaldtrumpjunior.net on it and the limo said Donald Trump Junior on it so it must be related to him in some way.

Edit: no, it's not the actual Donald trump Jr. It's...actually I don't know what this is

http://www.donaldtrumpjr.net

8864929F-B946-4110-B82C-F303195065A6.jpg
 

Teggy

Member
That's a very long web page

Yup, totally broken on iOS, both chrome and safari apps. Keeps reloading over and over.

Does he go "on patrol" in that thing?

Best I can tell he is a Trump impersonator and he has a whole bunch of these cars. He goes to Trump rallies and to Wal-marts to hand out bumper stickers. He had disappeared for a long while probably because he was following the campaign around.
 
Crazy Trump guy that lives near me has swapped out his car again. I noticed that it says donaldtrumpjunior.net on it and the limo said Donald Trump Junior on it so it must be related to him in some way.

Edit: no, it's not the actual Donald trump Jr. It's...actually I don't know what this is

http://www.donaldtrumpjr.net

In between refreshes it looks like the dude a comedian, and Trump impersonation in his shtick.
 

JP_

Banned
This somewhat goes against the narrative I see on GAF where everybody supporting Sanders is an uneducated closet racist white guy. http://www.gallup.com/poll/191465/millennials-sanders-dislike-election-process.aspx

FbHbwvu.png


Among people aged 20-36, Sanders has higher favorability among basically every demographic. Not just men, women too. Not just whites, but also blacks and hispanics. Not just people with little education -- Sanders does better on all levels of education. Moderate or liberal, doesn't matter, young people prefer Sanders across the board.
 

royalan

Member
Honest question: is favorability the same thing as support?

Because until recently I knew plenty of people who weren't supporting Sanders and never would unless he somehow became the nominee, but thought he was a "Gee gosh golly swell guy with some interesting ideas."

EDIT: Beaten like Bernie
 

JP_

Banned
Favorability is not support, or Carson or Rubio would have won the Republican primary.

You're conflating support with votes. You can support both, but you can't vote for both. Supporting can mean a lot of things, voting is just voting.
 

VRMN

Member
Honest question: is favorability the same thing as support?

Because until recently I knew plenty of people who weren't supporting Sanders and never would, but thought he was a "Gee gosh golly swell guy with some interesting ideas."
Nope. Liking someone is not the same thing as thinking they'd be the best person for the job, no matter how much the Bush years got the media to conflate the two more than they should have.
 
Among people aged 20-36, Sanders has higher favorability among basically every demographic. Not just men, women too. Not just whites, but also blacks and hispanics. Not just people with little education -- Sanders does better on all levels of education. Moderate or liberal, doesn't matter, young people prefer Sanders across the board.

Yes, I think there will be a lot of buyer's remorse for Democrats in the coming months. Polls are already indicating a close race or even a Trump lead.
 

JP_

Banned
Yes, I think there will be a lot of buyer's remorse for Democrats in the coming months. Polls are already indicating a close race or even a Trump lead.

Well, current data also suggests young people greatly prefer Clinton to Trump, so I'm not too worried there yet. But the Clinton/Trump polls are too close for comfort, I agree.
 

royalan

Member
Yes, I think there will be a lot of buyer's remorse for Democrats in the coming months. Polls are already indicating a close race or even a Trump lead.

What little potential there was for buyer's remorse has all but been erased by the Nevada mess and Bernie's piss-poor response to it. The bad press he has gotten over that has been immense, bigger than when he flunked out of his own ideology in front of the New York Daily News. That, combined with the news of his campaign going broke...the media can smell blood, and I think that's going to start to reflect in his favorability ratings.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Well, current data also suggests young people greatly prefer Clinton to Trump, so I'm not too worried there yet. But the Clinton/Trump polls are too close for comfort, I agree.

That's because she's still fighting a two-sided war and Trump has united the GOP base behind him. The fact he can't pull ahead in this situation is seriously bad for him.
 
What little potential there was for buyer's remorse has all but been erased by the Nevada mess and Bernie's piss-poor response to it. The bad press he has gotten over that has been immense, bigger than when he flunked out of his own ideology in front of the New York Daily News. That, combined with the news of his campaign going broke...the media can smell blood, and I think that's going to start to reflect in his favorability ratings.

Oh I'm well aware that Sanders won't be the Democratic nominee.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Btw if you exclude Rasmussen from HuffPo's aggregate Clinton's lead jumps from 2.7 points to 7.6.

Ras polls belong in the garbage.

But if you do Sam Wang's method of taking the median of the last 12 in order to get rid of outliers like that, it's still only a 2.5 point lead.
 

JP_

Banned
That's because she's still fighting a two-sided war and Trump has united the GOP base behind him. The fact he can't pull ahead in this situation is seriously bad for him.

If Sanders can poll strong against Trump during a two-sided war, I'd hope Clinton can too. She's supposed to be the stronger candidate, right? Yes, you can rationalize it away -- I know all the arguments for why the polls aren't indicative and I mostly agree with them, but it's still closer than I'd like. This is Trump we're talking about, not a typical candidate -- it shouldn't be close at all.
 
If Sanders can poll strong against Trump during a two-sided war, I'd hope Clinton can too. She's supposed to be the stronger candidate, right? Yes, you can rationalize it away -- I know all the arguments for why the polls aren't indicative and I mostly agree with them, but it's still closer than I'd like. This is Trump we're talking about, not a typical candidate -- it shouldn't be close at all.

Here is the thing.

The superdelegates are not going to overrule the will of the voters and vote for Bernie over Hillary just because of some favorablity polls.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
If Sanders can poll strong against Trump during a two-sided war, I'd hope Clinton can too. She's supposed to be the stronger candidate, right? Yes, you can rationalize it away -- I know all the arguments for why the polls aren't indicative and I mostly agree with them, but it's still closer than I'd like. This is Trump we're talking about, not a typical candidate -- it shouldn't be close at all.

Bernie hasn't been attacked at all. Like, at all. If you can't see the difference then you're just being obtuse. Bernie isn't fighting a two-sided war, he's lobbing grenades at Clinton while taking no fire in return.
 
If Sanders can poll strong against Trump during a two-sided war, I'd hope Clinton can too. She's supposed to be the stronger candidate, right? Yes, you can rationalize it away -- I know all the arguments for why the polls aren't indicative and I mostly agree with them, but it's still closer than I'd like. This is Trump we're talking about, not a typical candidate -- it shouldn't be close at all.

He's not a two sided war. One of the (many) reasons why Clinton does worse versus Sanders is that Sanders supporters are saying they're undecided.
 
If Sanders can poll strong against Trump during a two-sided war, I'd hope Clinton can too. She's supposed to be the stronger candidate, right? Yes, you can rationalize it away -- I know all the arguments for why the polls aren't indicative and I mostly agree with them, but it's still closer than I'd like. This is Trump we're talking about, not a typical candidate -- it shouldn't be close at all.

Sanders isn't on a two sided war, Clinton and Trump aren't even mentioning him anymore outside of Clinton talking about unification. Trump has never actually attacked Sanders, Trump has actively tried to beef up the "its a rigged game!!!!" bullshit to try and prop him up.
 

JP_

Banned
Here is the thing.

The superdelegates are not going to overrule the will of the voters and vote for Bernie over Hillary just because of some favorablity polls.

Never said they would. Not sure why you're bringing it up. We can discuss demographics without talking about the outcomes of the primary.

Bernie hasn't been attacked at all. Like, at all. If you can't see the difference then you're just being obtuse. Bernie isn't fighting a two-sided war, he's lobbing grenades at Clinton while taking no fire in return.

Yeah, like I said, I've heard this a million times and I don't even disagree with it in general. That doesn't mean I'm comfortable with how close Clinton is polling against Trump.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
If Sanders can poll strong against Trump during a two-sided war, I'd hope Clinton can too. She's supposed to be the stronger candidate, right? Yes, you can rationalize it away -- I know all the arguments for why the polls aren't indicative and I mostly agree with them, but it's still closer than I'd like. This is Trump we're talking about, not a typical candidate -- it shouldn't be close at all.
It's not a two sided war.

1) it's not a war, it's over
2) Hillary has not mentioned Bernie for a month

edit: I'm serious. Not to be flip, but there is absolutely 0 fire trained on Bernie right now. The worst thing said about him by any candidate was Trump calling him "Crazy" and then immediately flipping and saying he should run because the democrats are mean to him (sounds like a forum poster, honestly). Trump is getting fire from Hillary, and Hillary is getting fire from Trump AND Bernie (if not directly, than the things he says directly indict her by all but name).

IMO Bernie is lowering her favorables among Democrats, but that's OK because it'll come back up once he's out.
 
Never said they would. Not sure why you're bringing it up. We can discuss demographics without talking about the outcomes of the primary.



Yeah, like I said, I've heard this a million times and I don't even disagree with it in general. That doesn't mean I'm comfortable with how close Clinton is polling against Trump.

Then you just contradicted your original point that Sanders is doing better than Clinton in a two sided war?

huh?
 

pigeon

Banned
So are we going to have the same conversation about the polls being close literally every day until the polls stop being so close?
 

Trouble

Banned
Here is the thing.

The superdelegates are not going to overrule the will of the voters and vote for Bernie over Hillary just because of some favorablity polls.

I love how Sanders' argument went from 'Superdelegates should follow the will of the people and vote for who won their state's primary/caucus' to 'Fuck the will of the people, superdelegates should vote Sanders because polls'.

So are we going to have the same conversation about the polls being close literally every day until the polls stop being so close?

Yes? PoliGAF is like 90% obsessing over polls while waiting for the next round of polls.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
So are we going to have the same conversation about the polls being close literally every day until the polls stop being so close?

Probably? Then after the RNC.

Then that will probably be it, lol.
 
Morning Joe comes up "trumps" ;) again:



Joe: You look at these Bernie Sanders rallies, they look like Bobby Kennedy rallies, 1968, which we must remind people, after Bobby was shot, the family still couldn't figure out why a lot of Bobby's voters went over to George Wallace.

So people are saying "Oh look, these Bernie voters will automatically go over to Hillary"; no, this is a movement, they have launched a movement.

Guest: And the Sanders people that I know are not Democratic party policy position people, they are people who want to throw out the car and get a new car, and I think Clinton is, fix the car, get a new carburetor in there, and the Sanders people just want to get a whole new car. And I think they're right, that the, get a whole new car mentally, for some of them, will translate much more easily into Donald Trump.

Damn straight on the new car analogy, and I vote for a Tesla Model 3, without the front end that just looks wrong, and as aerodynamic as a brick.

NOTE: these highly accurate transcripts are only possible with the power of the PS3 (man, have you ever tried jumping back a small amount using a video position slider?), in combination with the BD / Media remote and bookmarklet 2s Step back button feature ;).
 

JP_

Banned
Then you just contradicted your original point that Sanders is doing better than Clinton in a two sided war?

huh?

Clinton is supposed to be the stronger candidate. You guys keep pretending Sanders and Clinton are coming into this on equal ground. He's always been the underdog, yes, even when he's outspending her. Throughout this campaign I've always assumed I'd be voting for Clinton in the GE (still do) -- as this has gone on, it's become clear she's severely compromised and I think a lot of you guys are too quick to try and rationalize it away. If it weren't for Trump, she'd have the biggest unfavorable ratings in history. That's not something you want. If you can't acknowledge her weaknesses, I think you're being foolish. Sanders is beating my expectations and Clinton is not meeting my expectations in terms of performance and polling -- as we approach the GE with Clinton, and Trump has also beaten my expectations, that's scary for me. Maybe you guys always assumed she'd do this bad, I don't know.

Right now it's looking like Clinton will still have a relatively easy path to victory over Trump, but it's closer than I'm comfortable with. I've never suggested these early polls will definitely be indicative of the November results, but while it is early, I don't necessarily think it's safe to assume things will only get easier for Clinton. Maybe you guys are comfortable with it, but I'm worried we're underestimating Trump and some of you are overestimating Clinton, and that would not be wise.
 
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