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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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pigeon

Banned
This Pedigo guy is a total fraud.

CjPI5obUoAA-VSO.jpg

The best part of this graph is actually Huffpo Pollster being worse than Tyler.

Also 538 best fit continues to be cheating. You aren't supposed to say "I did two models, for each election, pick whichever model did better!" I have no way of knowing which model will do better in advance! That's very sketchy statistics from Nate.

Oh man, please tell me it'll be on something juicy..

Sorry, that's not how psychohistory works. I can only say it'll happen.
 
People often conflate "This might happen" (1% chance) with "This will happen" (99% chance).

"Bernie could win California" becomes "Bernie is going to win California and he'll win every delegate and become the nominee."

As soon as people start convincing themselves something has a reasonable chance of occurring they'll start counting on it.

Can't wait for 6/7 when people cozy in expecting a long night only for news networks to call the whole shebang for Hillary as soon as Jersey comes in.

Start out like

kGhIjsP.gif


End up like

Balloons-Falling-Colbert-Report.gif

still a 50/50 chance either event can happen tho
 

Meowster

Member
Does anyone else get a slight "it's about ethics in gaming journalism" vibe for all the ridiculous hurdles people are coming up with for Hillary that no one else has had to deal with? The diet sexism (and sometimes overt) is real.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Pedigo's model is pretty dreadful; it's based on the premise that Sanders does better as time goes on, which is fair, but to find the rate of change, he used the data from the earlier primaries, ignoring that a lot of the reason Sanders improved dramatically was because the primaries moved out of the South. The logical conclusion of his model is that in any primaries after October, Sanders would have been winning them all by 100% (if they existed), such was the strength of the weighting.

Which, as pigeon says, makes it all the funnier HuffPo was worse.
 
Does anyone else get a slight "it's about ethics in gaming journalism" vibe for all the ridiculous hurdles people are coming up with for Hillary that no one else has had to deal with? The diet sexism (and sometimes overt) is real.
We're just asking questions.

And until those questions are answered we will be calling our victims I mean targets cunts and whores.
 
Can't wait for her to actually achieve things in office and people will still claim that she doesn't mean it.

"Well she passed immigration reform, the Equality Act and made college debt-free, and her Supreme Court overturned Citizens United after she reauthorized McCain-Feingold, but you know she's just pandering!"

She's probably not going to pass any of this, but will pick some SC justices. My fear is that she won't be able to keep any of her promises and limp into 2019/2020 with little to show for it outside of some compromises (tax reform including cutting the corporate tax rates) that don't inspire the base. If economic growth takes a downturn or simply treads water...it could be ugly.

Get ready for lots of "I told you so" bullshit from Sanders supporters, and Sanders himself.
 
Does anyone else get a slight "it's about ethics in gaming journalism" vibe for all the ridiculous hurdles people are coming up with for Hillary that no one else has had to deal with? The diet sexism (and sometimes overt) is real.
Multiple aspects of the hivemind of both the Trump and the Sanders campaign (though to a lesser extent) have had Gamergate-style fingerprints on them for months. I don't expect it to get any better, either. It's not a comparison I take any joy in making because of how horrendous an insult it is, but the trends continue to get worse.
 
She's probably not going to pass any of this, but will pick some SC justices. My fear is that she won't be able to keep any of her promises and limp into 2019/2020 with little to show for it outside of some compromises (tax reform including cutting the corporate tax rates) that don't inspire the base. If economic growth takes a downturn or simply treads water...it could be ugly.

Get ready for lots of "I told you so" bullshit from Sanders supporters, and Sanders himself.
That's fair but I think even with a GOP House (one that's much closer than it is now) she'll be able to pass some bigger, significant reform. Immigration, education or student loan seem like the top candidates to me.

Then again I thought Obama's reelection would break the fever and allow him to pass immigration reform, particularly after it passed in the Senate with relative ease. So who knows.

I do think if immigration reform came up to a floor vote today, it would pass.
 

Holmes

Member
Huh... So Bill Clinton spoke at my alma mater yesterday and I'm just finding out now lol. Dang. Woulda gone if I knew. There was even a pro bernie protest! http://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/article79294582.html
The only protest I saw at the Bill rally yesterday in Sacramento was two guys who walked up and down the line as we were waiting holding tiny signs that said something about war criminals. We were all totally convinced.
 

ampere

Member
That Dawkins thread is pure trumpism from so called liberals.

Dawkins was worried that people forgot how huge of an asshole he is

Never thought a small town Canadian boy would ever get to see Bill.

Nerd

Hope you had a good time!

What a cry baby.

Wapo asking Trump about the veterans money.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjO-uqAXIAEEzAh.jpg:large[IMG][/QUOTE]

I love how defensive he gets. Hillary's team just has to find all his little insecurities and lies and have her surrogates pound him on it endlessly.
 

bananas

Banned
Does anyone else get a slight "it's about ethics in gaming journalism" vibe for all the ridiculous hurdles people are coming up with for Hillary that no one else has had to deal with? The diet sexism (and sometimes overt) is real.
I was talking to my roommate the other day who was addimant that Hillary should be in prison. All I asked him was "for what?"

Couldn't give me a single reason.
 
The Ohio "golden week" ruling is a big deal. I really thought the whole thing would be upheld. Of course I wish the 'one location per county' crap were ruled on differently, but hey, compromise is how we make progress. Getting our early voting (with same day registration) back is a huge victory.
 

teiresias

Member
I'm having a ton of fun (I am not being sarcastic here) educating Bernie supporters on my Facebook about first-past-the-post election systems. They think denying 270 electoral college votes to any candidate is an absolutely great idea to "fight the system", and the minute I tell them about how the GOP House gets to pick the President in that case they're absolutely flabbergasted (I've never thought to ask them what they actually thought would happen instead). It's immensely hilarious.
 
I'm having a ton of fun (I am not being sarcastic here) educating Bernie supporters on my Facebook about first-past-the-post election systems. They think denying 270 electoral college votes to any candidate is an absolutely great idea to "fight the system", and the minute I tell them about how the GOP House gets to pick the President in that case they're absolutely flabbergasted (I've never thought to ask them what they actually thought would happen instead). It's immensely hilarious.

Here they also don't know that sore loser laws would keep a third-party Bernie off of key ballots, and that write-in votes, where permitted, usually aren't counted.
 
I'm having a ton of fun (I am not being sarcastic here) educating Bernie supporters on my Facebook about first-past-the-post election systems. They think denying 270 electoral college votes to any candidate is an absolutely great idea to "fight the system", and the minute I tell them about how the GOP House gets to pick the President in that case they're absolutely flabbergasted (I've never thought to ask them what they actually thought would happen instead). It's immensely hilarious.

And a Bernie third party run wouldn't even do that. It would just make it easier for Trump to get to 270. People have this idea that if the popular vote split 45%-30%-25%, then so would the electoral vote. It'd actually split more like 80%-20%-0%.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Oh man, please tell me it'll be on something juicy..

Nah, something cheesy.

Are we still trotting out the same two tired examples of Hillary hitting below the belt in 08 to excuse Bernie Sanders hitting below the belt on Hillary and the DNC for two months straight?

Would you prefer when Bill Clinton complained to Harry Reid that "a boy" like Obama would have been getting him water 4 years ago? Or HRC saying that the reason Obama is winning is because the Democrats and media won't criticize him because he's black? Or that Obama can't win the white vote and that's why she should be the nominee? Or when she told her staff that Obama's mother was a communist? (That's just the publicly reported stuff. Won't even touch the stuff we heard internally)

Game Change should be some mandatory reading or something.

Yeah speaking as someone who has regularly visited the Poligaf community for years, in the past few months things have taken a really dark turn on here.

At the end of the day most polling seems to indicate it's only 1 in 5 Sanders supporters that say they will switch their vote to Trump over the democratic nominee if Sanders loses. On top of that Sanders has been vigorously attacking Trump since the start of his campaign. Regardless of anything Sanders has always made it clear from day 1 that Trump is a much worse candidate than Clinton.

We even now have Gaming's Godwin's Law - Gamergate, brought into it.
 
That's fair but I think even with a GOP House (one that's much closer than it is now) she'll be able to pass some bigger, significant reform. Immigration, education or student loan seem like the top candidates to me.

Then again I thought Obama's reelection would break the fever and allow him to pass immigration reform, particularly after it passed in the Senate with relative ease. So who knows.

I do think if immigration reform came up to a floor vote today, it would pass.

You believe that after nominating Donald Trump for president, the republican party will pursue immigration reform policy with President Hillary Clinton? Not going to happen.

I don't think student loan reform is likely either given the ideological differences at hand, and young voters are a democrat demographic. Who will pay for it, will taxes be raised, etc etc makes me think it's not something a far right House will pursue. Even with school reform the money issue returns, and the GOP has argued against federal interference in schools for some time.

Tax reform seems attainable. I used to think criminal justice reform was possible but not anymore. I think she's going to start off with an economic package that cuts some taxes, cuts regulations/"red tape," etc with little to no stimulus involved.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I don't think Bernie should "go to the convention" saying he thinks he can be the nominee if he can't, obviously.
 
I like how you use a gif of someone with terrible taste to react to a post accusing you of terrible taste.

I love Jinx!!!

But Bianca is Better!!!

Jinkx was a big mistake. My Lasky should have won that year.

The correct order of winners from best to worst is:

1) Sharon Needles
2) Bianca
3) Bob the Drag Queen
4) Raja
5) Chad Micheals
6) Camerooooon
7) Violet
8) The Other Tyra

Alaska and Katya are better than all of them, though.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Jinkx was a big mistake. My Lasky should have won that year.

The correct order of winners from best to worst is:

1) Sharon Needles
2) Bianca
3) Bob the Drag Queen
4) Raja
5) Chad Micheals
6) Camerooooon
7) Violet
8) The Other Tyra

Alaska and Katya are better than all of them, though.

No lies detected. Ginger was robbed.
 

teiresias

Member
Jinkx was a big mistake. My Lasky should have won that year.

The correct order of winners from best to worst is:

1) Sharon Needles
2) Bianca
3) Bob the Drag Queen
4) Raja
5) Chad Micheals
6) Camerooooon
7) Violet
8) The Other Tyra

Alaska and Katya are better than all of them, though.

Alaska is much better and full-fledged performer now than when she was on the show, her character has been completely fleshed out to the point of perfection. She wasn't there at the time. Despite Jinx's "questionable" fashion sense during the show, I think as a performer she was definitely better than Alaska at that point (I'd put them equal now).

I like Chad Michaels, but I'd think more of him if he'd been brave enough to bring some of his more crazy stuff to the show, like his Pinhead act. Though I can see how he wouldn't want to be compared to Sharon because of it.
 
I like how you use a gif of someone with terrible taste to react to a post accusing you of terrible taste.

I love Jinx!!!

But Bianca is Better!!!
Because Adam knows he does. :)

Likes the New DmC, hates pizza, likes PB Vodka, likes McDonalds (the food place Adam. Not the other McDonalds :) ), is a Browns fan,

The list is endless.. Adam is our big fat mess and we love him for it.

So how does that show work? Like how do they pick the best? The only reality show I like is the Amazing Race.
It's not Big Brother though.
 
You believe that after nominating Donald Trump for president, the republican party will pursue immigration reform policy with President Hillary Clinton? Not going to happen.

I don't think student loan reform is likely either given the ideological differences at hand, and young voters are a democrat demographic. Who will pay for it, will taxes be raised, etc etc makes me think it's not something a far right House will pursue. Even with school reform the money issue returns, and the GOP has argued against federal interference in schools for some time.

Tax reform seems attainable. I used to think criminal justice reform was possible but not anymore. I think she's going to start off with an economic package that cuts some taxes, cuts regulations/"red tape," etc with little to no stimulus involved.
I believe the "smart" people in the party (eg Ryan) will be pushing for it somewhat, but it could very well be sunk by the Freedom Caucus assholes and their kind. Unless they want demographics to lock them out of the White House for another election.

Immigration reform will always be one of those things that the Republicans need to get on board with (or at least just allow to pass) eventually, there's just too many intraparty complications preventing it from happening.

I think you're right in your last paragraph though. She'll get what she can through Congress, but it won't be much.

Please Christ just let the Democrats hit 218.
 
I'd be very concerned if the superdelegates gave the nom to Bernie. How does the Democratic party effectively disenfranchise the non-white voters who voted for Hillary 4 to 1? Without destroying itself?

There'd be cause for real concern if Bernie got what he wants.

Yeah, this is a point that never gets reversed. Bernie's camp argues "I do well with independents, so I should be the nominee!" and the obvious, immediate implication is that it doesn't matter who did overwhelmingly better with minority voters. Fuck 'em, let's chase white independents!

This is why Trump will lose (with a million other reasons). The press won't accept being talked to like this, despite how much they love the horserace narrative.

I think there will be a wave of young journalists hoping to be the lucky ones that catch Trump in a really really bad quote that makes them famous. And for Trump, that quote would have to accidental praise for Hitler or something, but it's always possible!


This gif is going to be a lot of Bernie people at the convention. They think it'll be a huge battle for the majority of delegates, lots of action and drama, and instead it'll be a quick vote count, Hillary will easily hit the target, then the balloon drop happens.

Yeah, I mostly agree with this. I think people have started to get pretty, uh, intense as this goes on.

Everything is going to be fine. Bernie is going to get some stuff. He's going to go to the convention and endorse Hillary. Hillary will win the presidency and turn out to be pretty progressive. Nobody is going to remember that and we'll have all the same conversations in 2020, then Paul Ryan will become president and get impeached. It's going to be okay!

I agree. It's a bit of shade at Bernie when I say it, but it's true. Literally no one will be able to tell you who the guy is in 4-8 years. His revolution was garbage, it always was, and he himself is no messiah for the left. He's a failed candidate with a history of failed predecessors, and he can join them all in oblivion. Hillary shouldn't care at all (and thankfully, she doesn't seem to. Her campaign material has been 100% anti-Trump for weeks).

That's fair but I think even with a GOP House (one that's much closer than it is now) she'll be able to pass some bigger, significant reform. Immigration, education or student loan seem like the top candidates to me.

Then again I thought Obama's reelection would break the fever and allow him to pass immigration reform, particularly after it passed in the Senate with relative ease. So who knows.

I do think if immigration reform came up to a floor vote today, it would pass.

I do think the GOP is going to stop the obstruction under Hillary, at least to this degree. It's hurt their poll numbers badly, and while the Dems don't do so well in midterms, they're going to do a lot better after the last 8 years of Tea Party nonsense gets shown around the country. A lot of moderate Republicans are done with the Tea Party, and it'll show more in GOP primaries than the general midterm. I think the GOP does okay in 2018, but the candidates will be more moderate than before, and they'll compromise a bit more as well.

I'm having a ton of fun (I am not being sarcastic here) educating Bernie supporters on my Facebook about first-past-the-post election systems. They think denying 270 electoral college votes to any candidate is an absolutely great idea to "fight the system", and the minute I tell them about how the GOP House gets to pick the President in that case they're absolutely flabbergasted (I've never thought to ask them what they actually thought would happen instead). It's immensely hilarious.

Most of them seem to think that if no one hits 270, the plurality picks the president (and in these scenarios, Bernie's amazing non-partisan appeal pushes him to the top over Trump and $hillary). It's a laughable argument that's clearly coming from a place of ignorance.

Much like most of Bernie's hardcore fanbase and their arguments. I still laugh at that Robert Byrd KKK meme. How do you not just google the guy?
 
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