cartoon_soldier
Member
Iowa for sure will be close.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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Iowa for sure will be close.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Well we haven't really gotten much Iowa polling since before the DNC, I'd be kind of surprised if Clinton isn't leading as her convention bounce doesn't seem to have faded away (if anything it's grown on the back of Trump being a total fucking idiot).
I also want to see a tight Senate race but that might be too much to ask for. Come on Patty.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I don't know where you got that figure for Sanders' net worth from? By the 2016 financial disclosure form it is $528,014. Unless you're including the value of his personal brand or something?
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
If you ask me, it means even the other side has trouble confabulating this into some legit scandal. They recognize it's not a big deal.
RustyNails
Member
I'm interested i No Man's Sky but I'm convinced that I'd be bored out of my ass after 5 hours of repeatedly finding planets, naming aliens, extracting minerals and trading them for better tools.
https://m.facebook.com/TheComicalCo...7523152714197/?type=3&source=48&ref=bookmarks
Hahahahahahahahahaha. Oh my God I don't think I've laughed this hard in years!!!
Hahahahahahahahahaha. Oh my God I don't think I've laughed this hard in years!!!
Brawndo Addict
Banned
I have no idea how you plan to debate Donald Trump one-on-one. If it's impossible to predict how he will behave perhaps you lean into that and plan to ignore him completely; treat him as utterly irrelevant and unworthy of recognition. Perhaps a few lines to reinforce that theme, "If you ever manage to say something substantive Donald, then I'll respond to it". After all, getting his Republican opponents to start slinging mud with him just made them look bad and him look better since it helped to normalize the behavior (if the politicians are doing it too then it can't be wrong for me to do it). Just let him talk and blow himself up by revealing how utterly incompetent he is when forced to talk at length.
On the other hand, a one-on-one debate is so different from the primary debates that perhaps it is worth it to engage him, or at least not engaging him could very well backfire. The problem is, how do you plan to engage him outside of overly rehearsed and clearly scripted attack lines? He will say, deny, and endorse or disparage anything and everyone depending on his mood. You can't even predict whether or not he will use particular phrases in the debate to make fun of. I guess you could prepare a more generalized Christie style attack in terms of highlighting how stupidly simplistic Trump's non-answers are for every single question.
Plus there's a very real possibility Trump simply refuses to debate (there's no upside for him to participate imo), especially if he's still losing by huge margins. He can just say the whole things rigged and refuse to play by the rules of the liberal media. He already refused to release tax returns so why not break another tradition?
On the other hand, a one-on-one debate is so different from the primary debates that perhaps it is worth it to engage him, or at least not engaging him could very well backfire. The problem is, how do you plan to engage him outside of overly rehearsed and clearly scripted attack lines? He will say, deny, and endorse or disparage anything and everyone depending on his mood. You can't even predict whether or not he will use particular phrases in the debate to make fun of. I guess you could prepare a more generalized Christie style attack in terms of highlighting how stupidly simplistic Trump's non-answers are for every single question.
Plus there's a very real possibility Trump simply refuses to debate (there's no upside for him to participate imo), especially if he's still losing by huge margins. He can just say the whole things rigged and refuse to play by the rules of the liberal media. He already refused to release tax returns so why not break another tradition?
Nah. Some are just super racist and hateful
Black Republican
Member
The Clintons had a net worth of about $700,000 when they went into office. Bernie Sanders currently has a net worth of $1.65 million.
<check your facts>
forreal? how much was Obama worth before prez run?
nature boy
Member
Q will come out with 3 polls tomorrow morning, so potential for a lot of boners!
Pretty sure he was a millionaire due to Dreams selling like hotcakes.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
About $1.3mil in April 2007.
Ignore any and all personal attacks and just focus on policy. Only address questions about email or any other scandals if they come from the moderator. Basically act like a rational adult. I'm fairly certain 90% of the posters here would embarrass Trump in a debate, let alone someone experienced like Clinton.
User 463088
Banned
Carter and Ford weren't millionaires when they took office. Carter was probably close but not quite.
Guys, I had to bail out of a political discussion with my room mate last night when he in full seriousness and earnestness told me that the government should and I quote, "Make loopholes illegal." And I asked follow-up questions, thinking he meant closing certain loopholes or whatever. Nope. He wants to make the act of exploiting a legal loophole illegal.
I...I don't. I can't even.
...
Halp.
I...I don't. I can't even.
...
Halp.
Fenderputty
Banned
I kinda let my mind go in this direction and then think of the 7 hour grilling she recently got over Benghazi and think, meh she's got this.
Amibguous Cad
Member
Still don't think it's a good idea. Any election in which the national numbers swing far enough for Texas to be in play is already a rout for Hillary. Focus on the scenarios where you might lose.
I think it's going to be easy for her. Whatever the topic is, she has an ability to go into detail that he doesn't. For example I'm sure NATO will be brought up at some point. I'm sure she has a vast amount of detail on how NATO operates stored in her head without any need to prepare. Trump doesn't. He might have specific knowledge of a story he read in the paper about a military base in Japan or whatever, but all she needs to do is lead him into uncharted territory. The average joe watching won't know if she's right in her judgment, or might not even care but it'll be easy for anyone to see when Trump is bullshitting and he isn't going to be able to study up in time or even keep his thoughts logically organized off-script.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Plus iirc Carter is the only president to have lived in public housing.
His lack of knowledge about everything, and her general ultra-preparedness, would also allow her to constantly set traps for him if she felt like it. Lead him down one path and when he think he's got her, pull the rug out from under him.
whyamihere
Banned
My guess:
PA+6
OH+4
IA+2
All HRC.
PA+6
OH+4
IA+2
All HRC.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I don't get the Diablosing over how to debate Trump, if that's in fact what I'm reading today.
He's not playing 9th-dimensional chess, not laying any traps, not drawing you in to play gotcha. He's a blunt force, simultaneously erratic and subdued, ignorant but incisive, utterly lacking in nuance or intelligible answers in any way.
He's not debating, assuming he agrees to them in the first place, he's going for quick one-liners and branded insults. Get one layer below that and he's nothing.
Ask him 'how' on any question and three major themes as you respond to each one:
1. he has no actual plan because he doesn't understand the nuance of the issue
2. 'because i say so' is for children, not for the presidency
3. he's dangerously uninformed and is a risk to global peace
We don't need to hear nuance from Clinton, we know she's nuanced. We need to hear, over and over and over again, that every single thing he says is uninformed, childish, and dangerous.
He's not playing 9th-dimensional chess, not laying any traps, not drawing you in to play gotcha. He's a blunt force, simultaneously erratic and subdued, ignorant but incisive, utterly lacking in nuance or intelligible answers in any way.
He's not debating, assuming he agrees to them in the first place, he's going for quick one-liners and branded insults. Get one layer below that and he's nothing.
Ask him 'how' on any question and three major themes as you respond to each one:
1. he has no actual plan because he doesn't understand the nuance of the issue
2. 'because i say so' is for children, not for the presidency
3. he's dangerously uninformed and is a risk to global peace
We don't need to hear nuance from Clinton, we know she's nuanced. We need to hear, over and over and over again, that every single thing he says is uninformed, childish, and dangerous.
Net worth usually includes assets, no?
According to the news above by studyguy, Sanders just bought a 600k vacation home (article was dated just yesterday), there's no way his net worth is lower than the money he put down on that.
Veritigo_X
Member
It probably has to do with the people on the right I follow on Twitter, they're more, uh, "establishment" I guess? They're pretty critical of Trump and generally level headed. I'm sure those on the alt-right/reddit are eating it up.
It's pretty much a survival game with space sim/Elite mechanics in there. If any of that sounds interesting you'll probably dig it.
I've only played a couple hours, but the planets I've seen are varied and have a lot to do on them. I spent a long time just being lost in a cave system trying to make my way back to my ship. You kind of have to make your own adventure like that.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Trump knows how to go for sound bytes. Things that will make good clips of the debate. Of course on substance, Clinton will thrash him, but as the Republican Debates showed, substance doesn't matter in the public eye
I'm still not confident Clinton will win the PR game of the debates.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Minnesota primary day
Snuck up on me. Only two offices up in my precinct though, city council and Supreme Court (which is important this year as Democrats are worried a Dayton appointee might not make it to the general)
Snuck up on me. Only two offices up in my precinct though, city council and Supreme Court (which is important this year as Democrats are worried a Dayton appointee might not make it to the general)
User 463088
Banned
Previous numbers were
PA+9 (45/36)
IA+3 (42/39)
Tied in Ohio (39.39)
If that impacts anyone's guess. Those were from July done immediately after the FBI.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Senate guesses
McGinty + 4
Strickland + 1
Grassley + 7
McGinty + 4
Strickland + 1
Grassley + 7
RustyNails
Member
What about a scenario where Trump does not debate Hillary? There is no way his "handlers" (Manafort) is thinking this will be good for him. Trump opens mouth -> Garbage spews forth. In front of 50 million viewers. If they send a schoolboy Trump by making him rote few policy points/numbers, he will be devoured by Hillary. if they send a bombthrower Trump, he will only display his buffonery. Only move he has is to not play the game. Anyone not see this? Sure he will tank in the polls, but the kool aid is strong and the night is dark, full of terror.
My impression has been less Diablosing than the idea that team Hilldawg is doing overtime in preparation for every possible Trump that may show up. I think this is great and makes me really confident in the debates.
It's import to have the right answers ready to go on a moment's notice, so that if Trump tries to be boring and serious it becomes "stop trying to run away from your record" and if he rains bombast it becomes "this is completely unacceptable"...or, you get he idea.
I am very pleased with the campaign so far. They have so far made the most of every opening. The debates are the chance to turn this shit full Goldwater, so hoping it goes well.
nature boy
Member
We're now guessing poll numbers?
User 463088
Banned
I agree with these, except switch Strickland for Portman.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
It's all no win.
If he doesn't show up, he will literally lose another 5 points overnight, guaranteed.
Brawndo Addict
Banned
I'm not worried that Clinton will debate poorly (she'll do great), I'm more worried about how viewers will respond to various possible approaches. Trump makes it difficult to prepare positively tested material because he could walk back any given policy proposal at a moments notice. If the contrast in competence was all that mattered Gore would have won and Trump wouldn't have won the primaries.
All that said I don't expect Trump to debate or for the debates to matter in terms of impact on the election's overall result, not unless the polls tighten way back up and we have to worry about the dreaded "it's fall and I'm still undecided" voter.
All that said I don't expect Trump to debate or for the debates to matter in terms of impact on the election's overall result, not unless the polls tighten way back up and we have to worry about the dreaded "it's fall and I'm still undecided" voter.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I think whoever posted about memes being spread on the internet has a point more or less. People don't all sit to watch TV new channels to get information anymore and if you give up the internet to shitty memes then there's a lot of people who see it and believe it.
I don't know what to make of the Clinton campaign yet to be honest. They seem to be pretty formidable in some ways but they make some really careless mistakes that I don't remember Obama's campaign making. They also don't seem to be as good at being on good terms with the media, the Obama campaign seemed much more liked on a personal level by them.
I don't know what to make of the Clinton campaign yet to be honest. They seem to be pretty formidable in some ways but they make some really careless mistakes that I don't remember Obama's campaign making. They also don't seem to be as good at being on good terms with the media, the Obama campaign seemed much more liked on a personal level by them.
brainchild
Banned
Since the scheduled debates are going to happen regardless, that basically gives her a big infomercial on all the major networks and lets her paint him as a coward all at the same time. If he skips out on any of them, I think he's completely done with no possibility of recovery.
I feel like doing the debates is a gamble, but there's some outside chance he could scrape by. If he doesn't do it it's a guaranteed loss. I think they spin the wheel and pray, especially if he's still down by like 10 points after Labor Day. It's like Sanders not contesting the south in the primary, you're probably going to lose if you try, but if you're definitely going to lose if you don't.
User 463088
Banned
Her campaign has been fairly gaffe free to be honest. Outside the Reagan HIV thing, I can't really come up with something uber asinine they've done that's been an unforced error. And, even that, they clarified quickly and got back on message.
As to the first part, you're overestimating the people who live on memes.
Part of that is likely Clinton's distrust of the media seeping through. She got done pretty dirty by the press when Bill was in office, the reporters at the time seemed to rather enjoy jumping up and down on her head, so she's likely still thinking of the media in those terms. Plus like 90% of what anyone will ask about on a given day is the e-mail shit, she could announce a cure for cancer and she'd still get e-mail questions.
Agreed, people just want to do that shit anywhere with no regard for anyone around them. What if I don't want your rank-ass apple-ass-smelling smoke getting blown in my face? People seem to always forget that their rights end where mine begin.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
They can't formulate a good answer for the e-mails and then they let Mateen into the rally. Maybe I'm wrong but it seems like the Obama campaign would have caught onto that one.
BlastProcessing
Member
I understand that logic, but I think it's ok to be more forward thinking than that. Flipping Texas would be a seismic shift. It would help Clinton govern, immigration reform, for instance would be much more possible.
Trump has given Democrats the rare chance to substantially change national politics. If the data shows that the chance is there, I think it would be foolish not to go for it.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump is down by 8 points, he's going to go to the debates. If he has a good debate, maybe he can get to -4, if he has a bad debate, he'll go to -12, but what's the difference between being 8 points down and being 12 points down from a presidential race perspective?
This is a nonstatement. "I will agree to go to the debates if the conditions are satisfactory to me." Well, duh.
Control of Congress.
Yea, he's definitely giving himself an out here. The fact he might not even show up is insane.
PPP has a poll on Twitter right now asking what state we'd like polled this weekend. Texas is in a very narrow lead.
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/763058749082832896
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/763058749082832896
Give him *nothing* on the conditions.
This is strategic: Show how he is not a good "deal maker".
brainchild
Banned
"See the conditions"?! Like what, having a verbal exchange like a decent human being? What conditions of the debates could he possibly have a problem with?
That's the key right here.
Believe what?
You people are freaking out. THERE'S NO NARRATIVE HERE. I asked a pretty straightforward question -- describe the hypothetical person who would not be voting for Trump who would hear about this Mateen thing and change their mind to vote for Trump. No answers yet!
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