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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
dramatis said:
Net worth usually includes assets, no?

According to the news above by studyguy, Sanders just bought a 600k vacation home (article was dated just yesterday), there's no way his net worth is lower than the money he put down on that.
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This is not, you may be surprised to learn, how accounting works.

Think about it. You have 600k in cash. You buy a 600k house. Cash goes down by 600k. Net effect of the purchase is 0. You have no cash so you take a 600k loan. You buy a 600k house. Assets offset by liabilities. Net effect is 0.

The only way for net worth to go up is for assets to appreciate or for your investments to grow independent of their allocation. Even paying down debt would be a 1:1 offset.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
1. Nuke the filibuster
2. Computer drawn districts and VRA restoration
3. Amnesty
4. Appoint three supreme court justices
5. LGBTQ+ Civil Rights Act
6. Assault weapons ban
7. Repeal of Hyde Amendment

Hmm, likely or unlikely if the Dems win the House?

... Not certain Hillary would pass a cap and trade or carbon tax bill even with control of both chambers :(

Anyway, here's a great SubRosa song from their upcoming album:

http://teamrock.com/feature/2016-08...crew-subrosa-release-an-enrapturing-new-track
Click to expand...
1) Doubt it
2) VRA restoration definitely, something to deal with redistricting maybe but their powers might be limited there too as it might be seen as more of a state issue by the court
3) Yes (as in immigration reform bill with a path to citizenship)
4) Would depend on Justices retiring. You'd get Scalia's replacement (if it doesn't happen in the lame duck), probably Ginsburg's. Kennedy, Thomas and Breyer would be the next ones to look for retiring or leaving the bench through other means (if I could be so morbid).
5) The Equality Act would probably get passed which is largely seen as being superior to ENDA. I don't think LGBTQ issues are a very potent swing issue against Democrats (if anything being anti gay is more likely to hurt candidates in blue/swing districts)
6) Guessing there will be some attempt at background checks or some of the other more modest gun control proposals. Whether it would pass is anyone's game. I don't see an assault weapons ban anytime soon.
7) Eh? There are a couple of pro-life Democrats (like Bob Casey Jr) who would probably gum up the works here. But there are some pro-choice Republicans too like Collins and Murkowski so maybe they could.
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
whyamihere said:
Arizona, please. It's so much more important than Texas.
Click to expand...

I'm sure Clinton has internal polls on both the states. I wouldn't worry about where to poll in that sense. If anything, a Texas poll might be more impactful if it's close. Trump's campaign is in a vicious losing cycle that's driving the narrative. We already know Arizona's close... If Hillary is close there, he would have a disastrous next week.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Oblivion said:
I want to see Iowa. I haven't seen one from there in forever. What's the deal?
Click to expand...

Like Nate Silver said yesterday, Georgia could end up being more important than Iowa if it turns out that state is especially hateful against Trump. I mean, Hillary has gotten better results from Georgia than North Carolina lately.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Nazgul_Hunter said:
I'm sure Clinton has internal polls on both the states. I wouldn't worry about where to poll in that sense. If anything, a Texas poll might be more impactful if it's close. Trump's campaign is in a vicious losing cycle that's driving the narrative. We already know Arizona's close... If Hillary is close there, he would have a disastrous next week.
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Yeah but I don't get to see internals! I want to see Arizona polls. I don't care about your Texas dreams!

Roland_Gunner said:
The Clinton team got to Q-poll as well.

Quinnipiac lifts embargo (presumably to beat competition)

FL: Clinton 46, Trump 45
OH: Clinton 49, Trump 45
Pa: Clinton 52, Trump 42

https://twitter.com/samsteinhp
Click to expand...

Meh FL numbers, but I'll take it from QPac.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Gruco said:
Nah, we're talking about who will be on control of Congress in January and how seriously this election can damage the GOP in the long term. There are a lot of variables in this equation, but the biggest one might be Hill's margin of victory.
Click to expand...

Agreed! Though I think having a congress + mandate should make the left examine her real weak spots even closer. The point of this (thread of inquiry) being that the left shouldn't be worried about debates or email answers or anything. They / we should be focused on what the transition to a Hillary government will look like, how she'll govern, and ...

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
1. Nuke the filibuster
2. Computer drawn districts and VRA restoration
3. Amnesty
4. Appoint three supreme court justices
5. LGBTQ+ Civil Rights Act
6. Assault weapons ban
7. Repeal of Hyde Amendment

Hmm, likely or unlikely if the Dems win the House?

... Not certain Hillary would pass a cap and trade or carbon tax bill even with control of both chambers :(

Anyway, here's a great SubRosa song from their upcoming album:

http://teamrock.com/feature/2016-08...crew-subrosa-release-an-enrapturing-new-track
Click to expand...

YES. I remember waaaay back in 2008 NeoGAF / we had this amazing thread 'checkin' off his list' where we went through his (and our) biggest priorities. Someone needs to take this list and flesh it out so we can do it again.
 
B

Balphon

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Part of the NBC poll last week asked what issues concern them more and 48% of voters said Clinton's paid speeches were of larger concern than Trumps taxes (only 37 percent!), think about that. What rational people value speeches over taxes in a candidate?
Click to expand...

To an extent concern over the speeches is a proxy for concern over Clinton's ties to monied interests in the finance industry, which is entirely legitimate.

Though I don't doubt that there are at least some people who actually think the text of the speeches are the missing link in the Clinton Consoiracy. But those don't seem like the kind of people who pay attention to nuance. Or, you know, facts.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Trump now talking about voter ID laws in NC and saying people can vote for Hillary 15 times if they want to now.

Aaand he's talking about Orlando. He's totally going to mention the shooter's father at a Hillary rally.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
I can't believe you all. If Dems take everything, the filibuster is gone. They know they'll have two years. They know Rs won't cooperate.

It's gone. For legislation, SCOTUS, everything. They have too much riding not to do it.

Cmon.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Roland_Gunner said:
The Clinton team got to Q-poll as well.

Quinnipiac lifts embargo (presumably to beat competition)

FL: Clinton 46, Trump 45
OH: Clinton 49, Trump 45
Pa: Clinton 52, Trump 42

https://twitter.com/samsteinhp
Click to expand...

PA stronger is good to see. FL and OH leaning Clinton within 1-4 will be a constant until election day, I expect. If we see those jump out to 8-10 like elsewhere we really might be talking about a Trump dropout.
 
P

parrotful

Neo Member
Has anyone posted this yet?

Text analysis of Trump's tweets confirms he writes only the (angrier) Android half

A few observations:

Most hashtags come from the iPhone. Indeed, almost no tweets from Trump’s Android contained hashtags, with some rare exceptions like this one. (This is true only because we filtered out the quoted “retweets”, as Trump does sometimes quote tweets like this that contain hashtags).

Words like “join” and “tomorrow”, and times like “7pm”, also came only from the iPhone. The iPhone is clearly responsible for event announcements like this one (“Join me in Houston, Texas tomorrow night at 7pm!”)

A lot of “emotionally charged” words, like “badly”, “crazy”, “weak”, and “dumb”, were overwhelmingly more common on Android. This supports the original hypothesis that this is the “angrier” or more hyperbolic account.
Click to expand...
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
But yeah, I want to emphasize again that Hillary Clinton's only proposed income tax increase is a surcharge on people making over $5 million. Some Democrat she is!
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Retromelon said:
nice shirt. your pic with the cardboard cutout hillary at the fair always cracks me up when I see it btw
Click to expand...
11894495_10207806393296525_2491972873441924817_o.jpg


For posterity.

And yes it is a great shirt.

mvN038uMecpnMyvXf5pn_Vg.jpg
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Trump winning Florida given his numbers with Hispanics is so beyond the realm of possibility that polls hardly matter at this point. It's up there with Hillary winning Oklahoma.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
I find it hard to believe that FL is closer than OH, but okay. In the end, these numbers are fine. Still no path for Trump based on these numbers.
 
S

Sianos

Member
RustyNails said:
"I saw the conditions, and they're all in favor of crooked hillary. This election is being rigged beyond anything"
Click to expand...

This is the narrative Trump is fumbling to set up: he will pose some ridiculous terms and if they are accepted he will boast about his negotiation skills and if they are refused he will cry about how the process is rigged.

Problem for him is that he has very little leverage - he's basically wailing that he'll hold his breath unless his demands are given into. Except no one cares if he asphyxiates and the only people who will care about Trump whining about the process being rigged already support him while now there's even more evidence that Trump is a terrible negotiator for whom taking his ball and go home at the slightest provocation is the only strategy. He has no balls to take home this time, so this strategy is really just shooting himself in the foot.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
The Clinton team got to Q-poll as well.

Quinnipiac lifts embargo (presumably to beat competition)

FL: Clinton 46, Trump 45
OH: Clinton 49, Trump 45
Pa: Clinton 52, Trump 42

https://twitter.com/samsteinhp
Click to expand...
FL numbers are whatever, OH numbers are good and PA numbers are great.

Considering we don't even need the first two I'm fine with this. OH/FL are perennial tossup states, it's more important to keep PA firmly in the Dem column.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
If the Twitter is to be believed, Hillary is winning women 53/40, while Trump is taking men 51/39 in Florida...they're splitting Independents evenly...and she's 1 point ahead.

I gotta see those cross tabs.
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Am I crazy, or is this essentially the state of the race right now? It feels like if the polls stay where they are at, we don't need the big swing states.
g5JP0gR.jpg
Click to expand...
I'm assuming Ohio, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina go blue, and then everything else is just icing on the cake.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Captain Pants said:
Am I crazy, or is this essentially the state of the race right now? It feels like if the polls stay where they are at, we don't need the big swing states.

I'm assuming Ohio, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina go blue, and then everything else is just icing on the cake.
Click to expand...

I'd mark Utah red as well as Missouri, because we're not going to bother with either.
 
I

Iolo

Member
As Clinton launches registration effort, community groups focus on Asian Americans

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton plans to announce a major voter-mobilization effort on Monday that will aim to add more than 3 million people to rolls by November to bolster her odds against Trump.

Aides say Clinton plans to formally unveil the initiative during a speech at an NAACP gathering in Cincinnati and will then highlight her commitment by attending an event with volunteers who have been out signing up voters.

Asian Americans are likely to be a big part of that effort. They are the fastest-growing racial group in the United States, with political power that neither party has fully harnessed. Their growth and the emergence of immigration as a leading campaign issue have brought states such as Virginia, Florida, Nevada and Ohio into focus this year as fertile ground.

They have also brought individual counties into focus among a much larger group of states, including several battleground states in the industrial Midwest and Georgia, where an expanding educated workforce and growing immigrant population are thought to have the potential, eventually, to flip this Republican state from red to blue.
Click to expand...
 
B

blackw0lf

Member
Captain Pants said:
Am I crazy, or is this essentially the state of the race right now? It feels like if the polls stay where they are at, we don't need the big swing states.

I'm assuming Ohio, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina go blue, and then everything else is just icing on the cake.
Click to expand...

Nevada seems more of a toss-up right now, according to polls.
 
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