Bam Bam Baklava
Member
LV filter benefiting Dems again. 15 points.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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plagiarize
Banned
Saying it is unquestionable that Clinton will destroy the first and second amendment with her supreme court pick is hilarious. I say this as someone who would point to freedom of speech as an area where I separate with Clinton. But the fact is, the areas I separate with her are areas where the large majority of the supreme court seperates with her, not 5-4 judgements.
Corporations are not citizens. They do not and should not have freedom of religion or freedom of speech. Dark money in our politics is not a good thing. Citizens United should be over turned.
That isn't destroying freedom of speech. Now she has been for a few things that I think go way too far... but this isn't that, and as I said those things are such that the supreme court is so heavily weighted against her that she isn't flipping it on those issues (namely stuff like Innocence of Muslims).
Jill Stein is a far greater threat than Clinton what with all her anti science quackery.
nature boy
Member
Expected.
One less battleground state.
One less battleground state.
Outdoor Miner
Member
Damn @ those polls yo!
Looks like we'll get another Trump tantrum today!
Looks like we'll get another Trump tantrum today!
RustyNails
Member
Hamza Yusuf has pretty amazing videos on Malcolm X on youtube. I'd recommend those. Other than that, Autobiography of Malcolm X is the place everyone starts.
I know, I just wanted him to fall from a greater height over this. Dude's already KOed, he's got no fall left to make. He deserved to fall from grace over this, but he's already done that. I just feel like there's no justice here, ya'know, like he should be falling from the top of the Empire State Building instead of tripping on his own shoelaces while he crawls along on the ground.
You seem to be confusing investing in the markets with the Economy. Two very different beasts.
User 463088
Banned
MULawPoll
‏@MULawPoll
(Audible audience reaction to news Clinton is up 15 points among likely voters.)
‏@MULawPoll
(Audible audience reaction to news Clinton is up 15 points among likely voters.)
I also do not understand how you square these notions:
"Too much money in politics is ruining the system!"
"We should only have billionaires crafting economic policy!"
RustyNails
Member
C-bus stays winning. Dayton stays losing.
Nice!
whyamihere
Banned
Here's what should concern the Trump team: it's not just that Hillary is winning Wisconsin, but the margin that she's winning by. That spells huge problems for him in the Midwest including Iowa, which demos are fairly similar to Wisconsin, more so than Minnesota, in terms of non-college educated whites who voted for Obama in 12.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Clinton up 15 in WI, Feingold must be cruising.
User 463088
Banned
Literally, one time where I don't hate that Wisconsin is part of the B1G.
GO BADGERS
GO BADGERS
Is there anything dodgy about the lv screens this year? This screen has historically benefitted the GOP in previous years right?
What changed in the screening methods? What's the chance that these screens are counting LVs incorrectly?
Im a cynic so all this good news is making me skeptical.
What changed in the screening methods? What's the chance that these screens are counting LVs incorrectly?
Im a cynic so all this good news is making me skeptical.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I can't wait to see what the Second Ammendment People thing is going to do to the polls. Trump is going to crater.
User 463088
Banned
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll 17s17 seconds ago
Among likely voters, Feingold 53%, Johnson 42%. In July, it was Feingold 49%, Johnson 44%. #mulawpoll
YASSS
Among likely voters, Feingold 53%, Johnson 42%. In July, it was Feingold 49%, Johnson 44%. #mulawpoll
YASSS
Beer Monkey
Member
The city of Cincinnati proper will go for Clinton, I guarantee it. It's a fine city, the suburbs not so much.
plagiarize
Banned
Warren Buffett is pretty clear on what he thinks about Donald Trump, if we're allowed to use him as an authority figure on economic matters.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
College educated whites?
whyamihere
Banned
balladofwindfishes
Member
Who says they aren't still benefiting the GOP ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Roland_Gunner
Member
Based Feingold. Will be great to have him back in the Senate.
User 463088
Banned
Want to hear something awesome?
I read an article last night that Trumps entire GOTV operation in Cincy and the burbs was based out of one person's house. He's 100% volunteer. Has no contact with the campaign or the RNC. Literally, just some guy who loves Trump. There's one staffer, but, again, she has no contact with the entirety of Trump's ground game...which, again, is one guy working out of his house.
whyamihere
Banned
Like voters, three way:
BlastProcessing
Member
Trumps economic advisers are also his biggest donors.
And then, surprise, surprise, surprise, Trump's economic plan is a wet dream for Wall Street. HE PROPOSED REMOVING ALL FINANCIAL REGULATIONS! You need to wake up and realize that you have been conned.
User 463088
Banned
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll 32s33 seconds ago
Among Democrats and Dem-leaners, 81% say they are absolutely certain they will vote. In July, it was 78%. #mulawpoll
2 retweets 0 likes
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll 54s55 seconds ago
Among Republicans and GOP-leaners, 78% say they are absolutely certain they will vote in Nov. In July, that was 80%.
Among Democrats and Dem-leaners, 81% say they are absolutely certain they will vote. In July, it was 78%. #mulawpoll
2 retweets 0 likes
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll 54s55 seconds ago
Among Republicans and GOP-leaners, 78% say they are absolutely certain they will vote in Nov. In July, that was 80%.
I get the groups Hillary is smashing it with this group atm but I was wondering if they've changed who they consider a likely voter. For instance in 2012 they kept screening out people who did end up showing up as a part of Obamas coalition. Wasn't this why the polling was much closer that the final result ended up being? Incorrect assumptions on who he electorate would be. I'm just hoping that isn't at play again but this time not in our favor.
This has my attention!
Tranqueris
Banned
Trump basically put out a death threat against Hillary yesterday. Today that's all people should be talking about but they're also bringing up more emails nonsense when they talk about her.
You're killing me Hillary..
You're killing me Hillary..
Beer Monkey
Member
Really, the whole county will go for Clinton most likely. Everything North to Dayton and East to West Virginia will go Trump, it's white as fuck, gun nuts and double wides throughout most of it.
BlastProcessing
Member
I'd imagine it's because Likely Voters are more likely to be college educated. A group that Trump is particularly bad with.
BrokenFiction
Member
Trump way way down on https://electionbettingodds.com/
Now at 18%
Now at 18%
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
That's just the media trying to be "fair and balanced"
This is actually one of my favorite things about that.
People are concerned that Hillary might reward her donors with policies they want.
Trump hired all of his donors to tell him what policies to enact!
YOU LITERALLY CAN'T GET MORE CORRUPT THAN THAT
FloydtheFathead
Member
You have a problem..
Damn.. What a fuck.
It's the only part that wins anymore..
Don't do that.. Ever Adam.. EVER!!
let's not go that far.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Some DCCC internal polling of suburban swing districts
CA-10: Clinton+6 (Obama+3)
CA-25: Clinton+25 (Romney+2)
CO-6: Clinton+14 (Obama+3)
FL-7: Clinton+14 (tied)
FL-26: Clinton+24 (Obama+11)
IL-10: Clinton+31 (Obama+16)
MN-3: Clinton+24 (Obama+1)
Have fun outrunning that sinking ship you rats.
Say you have Dems those 7 districts and the 7 GOP-held Sabato has ranked as Lean D or better. Sabato still has 12 GOP-held tossups compared to only 3 for the Democrats which puts them just 5 seats shy of a majority of they swept them (FL-2, a Dem-held seat is lost). I mean this is going to really require Democrats to run the tables but Clinton is putting up wave numbers right now, and with waves come fluke seats and seats no one is even looking at right now.
Still not going to expect winning the House but I think Dems have a decent shot.
CA-10: Clinton+6 (Obama+3)
CA-25: Clinton+25 (Romney+2)
CO-6: Clinton+14 (Obama+3)
FL-7: Clinton+14 (tied)
FL-26: Clinton+24 (Obama+11)
IL-10: Clinton+31 (Obama+16)
MN-3: Clinton+24 (Obama+1)
Have fun outrunning that sinking ship you rats.
Say you have Dems those 7 districts and the 7 GOP-held Sabato has ranked as Lean D or better. Sabato still has 12 GOP-held tossups compared to only 3 for the Democrats which puts them just 5 seats shy of a majority of they swept them (FL-2, a Dem-held seat is lost). I mean this is going to really require Democrats to run the tables but Clinton is putting up wave numbers right now, and with waves come fluke seats and seats no one is even looking at right now.
Still not going to expect winning the House but I think Dems have a decent shot.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Not to mention the fact that only one of these two candidates has pledged to overturn Citizen's United, and he's voting against her. Overturning CU would legitimately shake up Washington for the better much more than anything Trump has proposed.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Oh crap I just realized Hillary's strategy on appealing to conservative endorsements is making her acceptable to work with in a republican congress.
Think it'll work?
Think it'll work?
Not so fast on Iowa. Clinton is actually underperforming Obama a bit there, because of its low amount of college educated whites compared to other red-leaning states like North Carolina or even Georgia.
A recent Marist poll had Trump and Clinton tied. What the Wisconsin polls show is that Minnesota is definitely not up for grabs, and neither is Colorado.
Somebody, please poll Texas!
StopMakingSense
Member
It makes a lot of sense for this year. Largely LV screens filter out people whose enthusiasm for the candidate or actually voting is low. "How likely are you to vote on Election Day?" questions like that.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
I'm starting to regret that bet we made
I'm sure if he really tried he could find a way to get more corrupt than that.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Maybe.
But the rate things are going, she might not have to worry about working with a Republican Congress (at least for her first two years).
Just hope she gets a big enough Senate majority that as long as pretty much Collins and Murkowski are on board she can get stuff done.
RustyNails
Member
Law of diminishing returns.
There's no more impact on her. Like everyone knows she was dumb with her email shit. Maybe it will stay in the news for a day and it's peanuts compared to what the orange man is yelling about.
Nice!
Ah, just what I was looking for. And Iowa too!
whyamihere
Banned
We actually haven't had enough polling in Iowa besides that one Marist poll. Also, they were only tied in the full race, not the H2H, and I imagine those 3rd party numbers will fade a bit by November. I just don't think Trump's brand of populism plays well in the Midwest.
Iowa and Wisconsin have similar amount of non-college educated whites who voted for Obama in 12. I would be surprised that if she's up by 15 in Wisconsin, she's not up by a decent amount in Iowa.
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