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[ItWasMeantToBe19]

George Borjas knows that Trump doesn't consider him white, right?

Borjas coming out as a white nationalist in favor of Trump when Borjas isn't white by Trump standards is fucking bizarre.

George Borjas is a Cuban immigrant and the most famous anti-immigration economist in the world.

 

[thebloo]

So, I'm a 31 year old man. But with the recent attacks on Hillary's health...
I trip up stairs sometimes. I hate standing up when there's nothing to do, so I like to sit on stuff. And I have pillows on my PC chair.

I think I'm dying!??

 

[RustyNails]

Can someone explain LATimes/USC poll? Pigeon we trusted you.

#dontbelievepigeon'slies

 

[Captain Pants]

Trump's supporters really should be more careful throwing around accusations on Hillary's health. Because eventually someone looks into Trump's health.

Don's doctor died 6 years ago.

That article is amazing. That letter always read like Trump wrote it himself.

I can't wait. Hopefully he does some taunting via armpit farts as protestors are being led out of the venue.

"Get 'em outta here!"
*fart*fart*
"Rough 'em up a bit on the way!"
*FART*

I'm dying to know what this new phase of the campaign looks like.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Can someone explain LATimes/USC poll? Pigeon we trusted you.

#dontbelievepigeon'slies

link
numbers
anything
halp

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Don't know if they will. They are basically letting Trump have most of the media attention now.

Last week I think Chris Cuomo said they aren't even letting their surrogates come on air. If you've noticed in CNN they either have HRC supporters or Trump surrogates and supporters, but no HRC surrogates.

 

[pigeon]

Can someone explain LATimes/USC poll? Pigeon we trusted you.

#dontbelievepigeon'slies

That poll has been heavily pushed towards Trump from the beginning because their sample was balanced by self-reported 2012 vote and/or self-reported party ID and those are too fluid to use as weighting markers.

538 corrects their +1 Clinton today to +5 Clinton.

 

[RastaMentality]

Indiana
Trump 47
Clinton 36
Johnson 10

Bayh 48
Young 41
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_081716/

Favorable/unfavorable

Trump 33/54
Clinton 28/62

Pence job approval: 54/35

About the same number of Republicans back Trump (84%) as Democrats who back Clinton (87%).

Nearly half of Indiana voters (46%) have a favorable view of Bayh and just 19% have an unfavorable view, with 35% expressing no opinion. Young is not as well-known, with a rating of 29% favorable and 15% unfavorable while 55% register no opinion of him.

The race to succeed Pence as governor is currently the closest of the three statewide races polled by Monmouth in Indiana. Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb (42%) is virtually tied with former legislator and 2012 gubernatorial candidate John Gregg (41%). Another 4% support Libertarian Rex Bell and 13% are undecided.

 

[thebloo]

Indiana

Trump +11
Bayh +7
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_081716/

Diablos time!

 

[Hopfrog]

From that Monmouth poll:

54% unfavorable for Trump, but 62% for Clinton.

Shame on you Hoosiers.

 

[Revolver]

On CNN just now they were doing a live remote outside Trump Tower when a guy walked by looked into the camera and said, "Trump is a racist. We all know." LOL

 

[Oblivion]

Trump's supporters really should be more careful throwing around accusations on Hillary's health. Because eventually someone looks into Trump's health.

Don's doctor died 6 years ago.

Trump released this letter back in December. Has no one actually fucking looked at it until now??

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

On CNN just now they were doing a live remote outside Trump Tower when a guy walked by looked into the camera and said, "Trump is a racist. We all know." LOL

lmao
usa
usa usa

 

[User 463088]

From that Monmouth poll:

54% unfavorable for Trump, but 62% for Clinton.

Shame on you Hoosiers.

 

[Plinko]

http://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/765932360944812032


Ayyyyy

Isn't this guy a conservative radio host?

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Trump released this letter back in December. Has no one actually fucking looked at it until now??

I remember this coming up already.

 

[Plinko]

Indiana
Trump 47
Clinton 36
Johnson 10

Bayh 48
Young 41
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_081716/

As I've been saying--Indiana isn't happening. People hate Hillary more here for some reason. Too many uneducated rural voters. LOTS of straight-ticket republicans. That's why Holcomb probably wins, too.

 

[explodet]

Trump's supporters really should be more careful throwing around accusations on Hillary's health. Because eventually someone looks into Trump's health.

Don's doctor died 6 years ago.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

crying cat emoji

 

[Fragamemnon]

I think the truth is between these numbers and the earlier ones showing a dead heat. These numbers look like what I would expect from Hillary +3/+4 nationwide and not Hillary +6.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Trump's supporters really should be more careful throwing around accusations on Hillary's health. Because eventually someone looks into Trump's health.

Don's doctor died 6 years ago.

Trump released this letter back in December. Has no one actually fucking looked at it until now??

this has been addressed. It was his son who wrote the letter, not the father, who is dead. A correction has been made. While still bizarre, it has certainly been in the news.

 

[Oblivion]

Btw, the right-wing's stupid gambit about making people worry about Hillary's health could wind up backfiring. After all, if (Allah forbid) happens to Hillary, who becomes president?

This guy:

And last I checked, he's way more liked than Hillary.

 

[Revolver]

lmao
usa
usa usa

The fact he kept on walking and no one batted an eye just made it funnier.

 

[User 463088]

I think the truth is between these numbers and the earlier ones showing a dead heat. These numbers look like what I would expect from Hillary +3/+4 nationwide and not Hillary +6.

Eh, I think it's probably accurate. Pence is on the ticket, after all. Plus, when it comes to educational attainment, Indiana is 43rd out of 50 when it comes to % of people with a bachelor's degree. Non-college educated whites is Hillary's kryptonite, and Indiana is full of them.

 

[TheAbsolution]

Brian Stetler nailed it. All of those talks we've heard about a potential TrumpTV after the election have way more credence to them now with Ailes and Bannon. This is a real possibility.

Trump News Channel. Building the wall to keep out the crooked media.

I hope it's an internet only channel so I can kindly forget about Trump and whoever he decides to hire about it just like I do with the Blaze.

 

[thefro]

There's no friggin way these numbers are right on Pence:

On the other hand, most voters (54%) approve of the job Pence is currently doing as governor and just 35% disapprove. A majority (58%) also say that agreeing to be Trump's running mate has not affected their opinion of Pence, although 23% say they now think less highly of him and 17% think more highly of him.

No way he's at +19 approve/disapprove as governor. Daniels was only at 51% approval in 2008. This sample is off.

 

[plagiarize]

Wouldn't +9 lead to the Dems having like 250 House seats because of the gerrymander creating a lot of R+5 districts?

That's what WaPo was arguing a few days ago.

Yeah. Gerrymandering *purposefully* dilutes your supporters. You do it to get more districts, but the risk is that you bring the tipping point much lower.

I would *love* to see them lose the house because they gerrymandered and didn't foresee a possible high single or low double digit landslide as a possibility.

 

[pigeon]

I think the truth is between these numbers and the earlier ones showing a dead heat. These numbers look like what I would expect from Hillary +3/+4 nationwide and not Hillary +6.

I dunno. I hear this but I think we need to see a little more data. LATimes poll is still consistent with Clinton being up by +8 because of its large bias towards Trump.

In terms of the Indiana poll, probably worth remembering that the poll showing them tied was a leaked internal. Since bad internals don't get leaked, I think Nate has previously estimated their bias at like 5 points. So it was really Trump +5, and the new poll is Trump +11, which probably just means that Indiana was never really in play this cycle. Which makes sense, since Indiana is a red state and the governor of Indiana is on the ticket.

I think one or two more polls need to come out before we recast the race.

 

[Slizeezyc]

Bummer on the Indiana numbers, I guess Obama stays the outlier there winning the state.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Trump himself essentially conceded by hiring Bannon. He knows this is over, don't panic.

 

[sc0la]

This sounds like a curse you'd hex someone with.

Was going to say The Bannon-Coulter Sessions sounds like a really shitty prog rock concept album.

 

[gcubed]

Nothing shows how out of touch poligaf is by spending 3 pages talking about someone creating a cable news network.

Everyone in here 80?

 

[thefro]

I dunno. I hear this but I think we need to see a little more data. LATimes poll is still consistent with Clinton being up by +8 because of its large bias towards Trump.

In terms of the Indiana poll, probably worth remembering that the poll showing them tied was a leaked internal. Since bad internals don't get leaked, I think Nate has previously estimated their bias at like 5 points. So it was really Trump +5, and the new poll is Trump +11, which probably just means that Indiana was never really in play this cycle. Which makes sense, since Indiana is a red state and the governor of Indiana is on the ticket.

I think one or two more polls need to come out before we recast the race.

Brian Howey said that internal GOP polls were showing the same thing earlier this week as far as Bayh & Gregg's numbers in the Dem internal poll.

I think Monmouth just doesn't know how to poll Indiana properly or this poll is an outlier. Pence would win in a landslide with these approval numbers and that's not what I'm seeing on the ground. The guy's never been nearly that popular here. He only won 49% of the vote in 2012.

I mean, the other option is that people like Pence better since he got selected as VP but don't tell the pollster that it makes them more likely to vote for Trump and doesn't change their opinion of Pence, but that doesn't make much sense.

 

[Meowster]

Shit, man. Looking at that poll and comparing it to the 2008 exits....that race could be even closer. The PPP poll is skewing old as all hell. They have 28% being older than 65. In 2008, the actual number was 13%! They have younger voters and AAs slightly undersampled too.

They really need to ham in that Kaine grew up in Kansas City and went to school at Mizzou (where I work now, yas). Missourians love that kind of stuff, Kansas City people especially.

 

[Abinash117]

Last week I think Chris Cuomo said they aren't even letting their surrogates come on air. If you've noticed in CNN they either have HRC supporters or Trump surrogates and supporters, but no HRC surrogates.

I guess the strategy is let Trump have the media to himself and have the campaign, campaign in the background while Trump continues to make errors. Might go all in mid-late September or October.

I guess it might be working in some cases Hillary has increased her lead.

 

[B-Dubs]

Nothing shows how out of touch poligaf is by spending 3 pages talking about someone creating a cable news network.

Everyone in here 80?

A little older than that, but I've been told I look good for my age

 

[whyamihere]

I dunno. I hear this but I think we need to see a little more data. LATimes poll is still consistent with Clinton being up by +8 because of its large bias towards Trump.

In terms of the Indiana poll, probably worth remembering that the poll showing them tied was a leaked internal. Since bad internals don't get leaked, I think Nate has previously estimated their bias at like 5 points. So it was really Trump +5, and the new poll is Trump +11, which probably just means that Indiana was never really in play this cycle. Which makes sense, since Indiana is a red state and the governor of Indiana is on the ticket.

I think one or two more polls need to come out before we recast the race.

That's my read as well. And what Bayh and Gregg are doing is pretty incredible.

 

[Revolver]

CNN's killing me today.

"Donald Trump's a turd tornado."

"A what tornado?"

"A sharknado, except with poop."

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Isn't this guy a conservative radio host?

yes and a horrible human being

Within a few years, Sykes had gotten his own show, on WTMJ, and for the next 20 years, he and Belling would share the airwaves: Sykes in the late morning, Belling in the late afternoon. Their styles are very different. Sykes is a thrice-married man-about-town with a smooth on-air manner and modish eyeglasses who has built himself into a multimedia brand, with a Sunday TV show on the NBC affiliate, books subsidized by conservative funders (his latest: A Nation of Moochers), and a subscription-based website, “Right Wisconsin” (which sometimes refers to Michelle Obama as “Mooch&#8221. Belling is introverted and brooding—he zips in and out from the station’s suburban studio in his Jaguar, interacting with co-workers no more than necessary. His demeanor on air is more intense, with long foreboding pauses between his acid declamations. In one 2012 riff, he called a young black Milwaukee man who had died in police custody a “piece of garbage” and attacked “the pigs of mothers who are too lazy to put their children in a crib and roll over the top of them while sleeping on a futon on the floor.” Christopher Terry, who worked with Belling at WISN and now teaches at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, says that Belling is more of a “true believer,” whereas “if Sykes thought there was money on the other side of the street, he would sell out in a second.”

Over time, the two shows became known by a single name: “SykesBelling.” In the halls of the statehouse, Milwaukee City Hall, and area county governments, elected officials, particularly insufficiently conservative Republicans, lived in dread of denunciations by the hosts and the tsunami of angry calls from listeners that would follow. Sykes is credited with, among other accomplishments, having blocked public funding for needle-exchange programs and having helped drive into bankruptcy an urban mall after harping on security issues there. In April 2013, he played a clip of “It’s Free (Swipe Yo EBT),” a viral video produced by a right-wing activist in which an African American woman raps about liquor stores where one can allegedly use a food-stamp card. Returning to the same theme later in the year, Sykes declared, “The number of Americans who receive means-tested government benefits— welfare—now outnumbers those who are year-round full-time workers.” No other midsize city has this kind of sustained and energized conservative forum for discussion of local politics. The only counterweights on the left are Wisconsin Public Radio, with its implicit but restrained liberalism, a lefty F.M. talk show in Madison with limited reach, and two African American talk-radio stations in Milwaukee, one of which recently went out of business.

Over Sykes’s second glass of wine, we got onto “The Wire,” which Sykes loves, a fact that, along with his cerebral manner, was making it hard for me to reconcile him with his abrasive on-air persona. Later, I asked whether his rhetoric was contributing to Milwaukee’s polarization. “I don’t think radio shows change people’s perceptions, because people’s perceptions are based on people’s own experience,” he said. “We hear that, that we’re driving the divisions, but the divisions are very real and are reflected in the discussions we have.”

On Sunday morning, as the convention concluded with a closed-door prayer breakfast, I headed to my hotel and flipped on the television, just in time for Charlie Sykes’s weekly show. One of Sykes’s panelists raised the issue of “an incident in the fifteenth aldermanic district where supporters of a liberal candidate bought meals for voters.” The fifteenth district is mostly black, the candidate is black, and the former acting mayor who provided the lunches to voters is black. But the panelist didn’t mention any of that. For his audience, who live beyond Fond du Lac Avenue and its check-cashing outlets and shuttered storefronts, over the city line where the humble frame houses and bungalows give way abruptly to McMansion subdivisions with names like Harmony Hills and River Heights, he didn’t need to.

https://newrepublic.com/article/118145/scott-walkers-toxic-racial-politics

I wonder where Trump came from?

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Trump himself essentially conceded by hiring Bannon. He knows this is over, don't panic.

It's good news for November, but it increases the likelihood that someone will be murdered in a hate crime before all this is over.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

this has been addressed. It was his son who wrote the letter, not the father, who is dead. A correction has been made. While still bizarre, it has certainly been in the news.

And the son keeps his dads name in the letterhead because?

 

[User 463088]

Ezra Klein making some good points

1. This happens a lot in politics. Some advisor comes into a troubled campaign and says “you have to be more you!" Candidate: "Brilliant!"

2. Problem is, the candidate was already being himself. The gloves were already off. That's why the campaign was flailing.

3. So it’s not just that the new strategy is dumb, but it’s not new. It's soothsaying, not a pivot.

4. We'll see, but that's my guess on how Bannon/Trump plays out. Trump was already being Trump, being confrontational, being nationalistic.

5. The campaign is constantly saying "America First!" There's just not that much further to take this strategy.

 

[nature boy]

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 2m2 minutes ago
#NEW @QuinnipiacPoll:

Colorado:
Clinton 49 (+10)
Trump 39

Virginia:
Clinton 50 (+12)
Trump 38

Iowa:
Clinton 47 (+3)
Trump 44

Confirms VA and CO.

 

[whyamihere]

Believe Harry just broke their embargo, but.

@ForecasterEnten
Even Q-Pac has Clinton up double digits in Colorado and Virginia.

 

[Kusagari]

It's honestly stunning to see multiple pollsters with double digit leads in CO and VA. GOP has truly fucked up by turning those two states lean blue.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Confirms VA and CO.

all she needs is NH if she's got those two

http://www.270towin.com/maps/vo6l9

 

[nature boy]

New page (for 50-gaf):

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 2m2 minutes ago
#NEW @QuinnipiacPoll:

Colorado:
Clinton 49 (+10)
Trump 39

Virginia:
Clinton 50 (+12)
Trump 38

Iowa:
Clinton 47 (+3)
Trump 44

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/q...ing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373

 

[whyamihere]

Those are disastrous numbers for Trump.

 

[Goodstyle]

Ultra-Conservative and former Breibart employee on Bannon:

Bannon Is A Legitimately Sinister Figure. Many former employees of Breitbart News are afraid of Steve Bannon. He is a vindictive, nasty figure, infamous for verbally abusing supposed friends and threatening enemies. Bannon is a smarter version of Trump: he’s an aggressive self-promoter who name-drops to heighten his profile and woo bigger names, and then uses those bigger names as stepping stools to his next destination. Trump may be his final destination. Or it may not. He will attempt to ruin anyone who impedes his unending ambition, and he will use anyone bigger than he is – for example, Donald Trump – to get where he wants to go. Bannon knows that in the game of thrones, you win or die. And he certainly doesn’t intend to die. He’ll kill everyone else before he goes.

Bannon’s ascension is the predictable consummation of a romance he ardently pursued. I joked with friends months ago that by the end of the campaign, Steve Bannon would be running Trump’s campaign from a bunker. That’s now reality. Every nightmare for actual conservatives has come true in this campaign. Why not this one, too?

This election is about to get a LOT uglier.

 

[Crayons]

Those are disastrous numbers for Trump.

b-but the media!!