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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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D

dramatis

Member
I'm listening to the latest NPR Politics and they mention that Trump hired a pollster to poll NY for Trump. Said pollster worked for Eric Cantor and showed Cantor winning before Cantor lost.

Oh man.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
whyamihere said:
Unless I'm reading this wrong:

100% of the respondents aged 18-29 will vote for Trump. At least, that's what it seems to say on page 6!
Click to expand...

No. Among undecideds in that category 100% answered yes to:

Would you ever consider voting for Donald Trump?

Guessing there was one undecided in that age bracket.

This is a shit poll. EDIT: digging deeper.

Crosstabs don't seem to add up. 3.5% of 18-29 were supposedly self reported as undecided. 102 people were 18-29. Therefore 3.57 (?) of the 18-29 year olds were undecided. Either way if three to four people were undecided and 18-29, it isn't unconceivable that they 100% of them would answer yes to that Trump question.
 
H

Holmes

Member
We've went from Clinton performing better in national polls than in state polls earlier in the summer, to now performing better in state polls than in national polls.

As for the Georgia poll, it's 66% white, and in 2012 the state's electorate was 61.4% white. It should be lower this year still. Clinton's team needs to register voters and get them to the polls.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
StormBrute said:
Yeah. If it's an outlier, coming polls will quickly prove such. No need to worry too much over individual polls, just the trends and averages.
Click to expand...

Also, outliers are natural/we should expect them.

Also, see:

@Nate_Cohn
A lot of people are asking whether the Pew poll (C+4) might be an outlier. There's *nothing* outlier-ish about a +4 poll if Clinton's up 7/8
Click to expand...
 
H

Holmes

Member
StormBrute said:
Yeah. If it's an outlier, coming polls will quickly prove such. No need to worry too much over individual polls, just the trends and averages.
Click to expand...
Well, when the only constant polls that are released a shit tracking ones, and you all know the ones, the narrative will quickly become "TRUMP REBOUND".
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
StormBrute said:
Yeah. If it's an outlier, coming polls will quickly prove such. No need to worry too much over individual polls, just the trends and averages.
Click to expand...

Well, if methodology is objectively horrible it should be heavily discounted or discarded.

Of course the Trump base will say that any poll they don't like has bad methodology or is rigged.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Jeff Sessions praises Trump wanting to execute innocent black kids:

“That speech was great, and Trump has always been this way,” Sessions, who was the first member of Congress to endorse Trump, said on the Matt & Aunie show on WAPI radio. “He bought an ad—people say he wasn’t a conservative—but he bought an ad 20 years ago in the New York Times calling for the death penalty. How many people in New York, that liberal bastion, were willing to do something like that?”

“So he believes in law and order and he has the strength and will to make this country safer,” Sessions added. “The biggest benefits from that really are poor people in the neighborhoods that are most dangerous where most of the crime is occurring. And I think people can come to understand that if the message continues to pound away.”

Trump spent more than $85,000 to publish controversial full-page newspaper ads calling to “BRING THE DEATH PENALTY BACK!” The five men who were sentenced the rape were later exonerated, but only after they had served their full sentences. The men convicted were all black and Latino and in their mid-teens.
Click to expand...
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
T

thebloo

Member
whyamihere said:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/766334103658651648





1_1.png
Click to expand...

Man, AA love Hillary. Or hate everybody else.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I still don't understand how Pew can have the smallest percentage of Hispanic voters since 2004 and, somehow, still massively undersample the group, though.

Like, pollsters need to figure this shit out.
 
D

Dierce

Member
I know it is one poll but the support shown with hispanics is worrying. I hope we don't become complacent and make sure everyone understand that a vote for Jill or Johnson is a wasted vote, let alone how insane and counterproductive their ideas tend to be.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
kess said:
Zogny was like, the shit, with pro-Kerry folks back in 2004

Well, until he blew the election
Click to expand...

I still remember John Zogby going on the Daily Show and predicting a Kerry win about a week before the election. I believe he specifically cited Bush being under 50% and undecideds breaking for Kerry.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Dierce said:
I know it is one poll but the support shown with hispanics is worrying. I hope we don't become complacent and make sure everyone understand that a vote for Jill or Johnson is a wasted vote, let alone how insane and counterproductive their ideas tend to be.
Click to expand...

I mean, I don't care if we're complacent because we don't matter, I care if the Clinton campaign becomes complacent, which I don't think they are.

As I said in the chat, what matters more to me than a Pew poll showing Clinton+4 is that Clinton feels strong enough about this race to open more field offices in GA, AZ, and TX. If she were worried, she'd be playing defense in Obama states. And her internals don't show it close, and neither do Trump's if he's hiring in Georgia.

That's sort of my read.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Those lean numbers are hilarious. Look at this:

Rep/lean Reps for anyone other than Trump: 19%
Dem/lean Dem for anyone other than Hillary: 17%

Shorter: basic confirmation that generic R is beating Hillary pretty well right now. Who this imaginary generic R that isn't Jeb, Rubio, or Christie is beyond me. (and thus the problem with that narrative).
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Trump's Fundraising Conference Call

"I was reading about it this morning," said Gaylord Hughey, an East Texas lawyer and a presidential fundraising veteran who expected Trump or his aides to address the overhaul on the half-hour call. "He didn't."

Instead, Trump told his donors about his huge crowds that would lead to a win in November. Lew Eisenberg, his lead fundraiser, spoke of the $60 million in low-dollar donations the campaign received in July.
Click to expand...

"The first response would be 'who?' And the second a realization that he has no intention of even making this thing particularly close," said Liam Donovan, a former GOP finance official who has been sharply critical of Trump.
"I think the message conveyed -- that this was Manafort was reining him in and this is a return to letting Trump be Trump -- will spook people who have been waiting for the pivot that never comes."
Click to expand...
 
A

ampere

Member
PantherLotus said:
Those lean numbers are hilarious. Look at this:

Rep/lean Reps for anyone other than Trump: 19%
Dem/lean Dem for anyone other than Hillary: 17%

Shorter: basic confirmation that generic R is beating Hillary pretty well right now. Who this imaginary generic R that isn't Jeb, Rubio, or Christie is beyond me. (and thus the problem with that narrative).
Click to expand...

Mr or Ms Generic R would have a hard time this election with that super regressive GOP platform anyway
 
U

User 85168

Banned
WaPo: Trump promised personal gifts on ‘Celebrity Apprentice.’ Here’s who really paid.

They were filming “The Celebrity Apprentice,” the reality-TV show where Trump schooled the faded and the semi-famous in the arts of advertising, salesmanship and workplace in-fighting. Most weeks, one winner got prize money for charity. One loser got fired.

Kardashian told Trump that she was playing for the Brent Shapiro Foundation, which helps teens stay away from alcohol and drugs.

Trump had a pleasant surprise. Although Kardashian could not win any more prize money, he would give her cause a special, personal donation. Not the show’s money. His own money.

“I’m going to give $20,000 to your charity,” Trump said, according to a transcript of that show.

He didn’t.

After the show aired in 2009, Kardashian’s charity did receive $20,000. But it wasn’t from Trump. Instead, the check came from a TV production company, the same one that paid out the show’s official prizes.

The same thing happened numerous times on “Celebrity Apprentice.” To console a fired or disappointed celebrity, Trump would promise a personal gift.

On-air, Trump seemed to be explicit that this wasn’t TV fakery: the money he was giving was his own. “Out of my wallet,” Trump said in one case. “Out of my own account,” he said in another.

But, when the cameras were off, the payments came from other people’s money.
Click to expand...

In some cases, as with Kardashian, Trump’s “personal” promise was paid off by a production company. Other times, it was paid off by a nonprofit that Trump controls, whose coffers are largely filled with other donors’ money.

The Washington Post tracked all the “personal” gifts that Trump promised on the show — during 82 episodes and seven seasons — but could not confirm a single case in which Trump actually sent a gift from his own pocket.
Click to expand...

In all, the Post found 21 separate instances where Trump had pledged money to a celebrity’s causes. Together, those pledges totalled $464,000. The Post then contacted the individual charities to find out who paid off Trump’s promises.

In one case, the answer was: nobody at all.

In 2012, Trump had promised $10,000 to the Latino Commission on AIDS, the charity of former Miss Universe Dayana Mendoza. The charity said it never received the money.

In two other cases, it was not possible to determine what happened. One charity said that somebody had paid off Trump’s promise, but declined to say who. Leaders of another charity — baseball slugger Darryl Strawberry’s foundation, to which Trump had promised $25,000 — did not respond to multiple calls or emails from The Post.

In the other 18 cases, the answer was the same — on air, Trump promising a gift of his own money, off-air, that gift coming from someone else.
Click to expand...

After The Post’s close look at Trump’s promises on the show, a mystery remained: What happened in 2012 to make Trump so much more generous on the air?

In the tax records of the Trump Foundation — which Trump used to pay off most of those new promises — there is no record of a donation from Trump himself in 2012.

In fact, there is no record of any gift from Trump’s pocket to the Trump Foundation in any year since 2008. (In 2011, Comedy Central donated Trump’s $400,000 appearance fee for a televised roast).

But, in 2012, the Trump Foundation’s records show a large gift from NBC, the network that aired the show. That was more than enough to cover all the foundation’s gifts to “Celebrity Apprentice” contestants’ charities, both before 2012 and since.

For NBC, Trump’s “personal” donations made for better TV. They added will-he-or-won’t-he drama to show’s boardroom scenes, added uplifting notes to the “firings,” and burnished the reputation of Trump, the show’s star.

Did NBC give Trump’s foundation money, so that Trump could appear to be more generous on-camera?

An NBC spokeswoman declined to comment.
Click to expand...
 
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