Yup. It's what they wanted him to go for originally and it's not like the NY GOP is in a good place.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!
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Yup. It's what they wanted him to go for originally and it's not like the NY GOP is in a good place.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
What a completely bizarre line of attacks. This won't affect independent/moderate voters in the least.
Fragamemnon
Member
Let's be real-Trump's endgame here is to run his own PAC build on his brand, siphon off cash from his biggest fans to administrative expenses (read
atronage), and then use the leftovers to torpedo anyone who didn't kiss the ring during his failed run.
atronage), and then use the leftovers to torpedo anyone who didn't kiss the ring during his failed run.User 463088
Banned
Remember how Bob Dole fell of the stage and Bill Clinton made a big deal out of it?
No?
Me either...because he's not a piece of trash like everyone associated with the Trump campaign.
No?
Me either...because he's not a piece of trash like everyone associated with the Trump campaign.
User 463088
Banned
Hahahahaha, well, good luck with that....
Can he take money from his campaign, transition it to a PAC or whatever to fund a future run? I feel like that's probably technically legal, but maybe not.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Clinton foundation just said that if Hillary is POTUS they will not accept foreign and corporate donations
dont know if thats new, just heard it on local news
dont know if thats new, just heard it on local news
I'm not so sure it will narrow, certainly not to the point that I'd be worried. We're well beyond the possibility that this is still the "convention bounce," this is just the new normal for this election. There will be some shifting along the way, of course, but Trump can't keep his feet out of his mouth long enough to stop offending literally everyone except white working class voters.
Your second paragraph is dead on; putting Hillary and Trump on the same stage, without teleprompters, softball questions from Hannity and under strict time / topic obligations that discourage Trump's fugue state-style speaking manner? If he even shows up (and I really don't think he will), he's going to look like an absolute clown, so it's a complete lose / lose situation for Trump. He just has to decide whether he wants to lose by looking like a coward or looking like a buffoon. You're also right that Hillary's surrogates will make a lot of impact once they get going; Hillary has just been kicking back letting Trump wreck himself and it's working, but I think once you have the news covering Obama and Bill's remarks especially you'll see any potential dip in the polls recovered and then some.
Pretty sure I read somewhere that the Orlando shooting actually hurt Trump's numbers. Likely because he was on twitter before the bodies were cold saying "Appreciate the congrats on being right on radical Islamic terrorism!" He's too much of an opportunist to really benefit from a terrorist attack.
Finally, Clinton's health = Obama's Birth Certificate. Relax. It won't gain traction outside of the bubble and it won't get reported as more than a curious conspiracy.
81 days.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Obama why did you mess up that Iran cash answer. Should have talked to state dept dammit
That or be a little more honest..looks bad and people won't know the nuance. Also getting that money involved...I actually don't like that
That or be a little more honest..looks bad and people won't know the nuance. Also getting that money involved...I actually don't like that
User 463088
Banned
One thing to keep in mind:
Of all the attacks we've used against Trump, how many of them came from shit he said since the convention? Almost of all of them, right? We haven't even dusted off any of the oppo-research we've been sitting on for quite a long time. We'll ramp up those attacks as the air goes out of the previous fuck ups....assuming Trump doesn't give us any more gems.
Of all the attacks we've used against Trump, how many of them came from shit he said since the convention? Almost of all of them, right? We haven't even dusted off any of the oppo-research we've been sitting on for quite a long time. We'll ramp up those attacks as the air goes out of the previous fuck ups....assuming Trump doesn't give us any more gems.
It really is embarrassing that we can use this line of reasoning to contrast Dems and Reps on a shittiness spectrum:
- Remember how there were 13 embassy attacks including 60 deaths during the Bush administration and how the Dems made a big deal out of it?
No?
Me either...because the Dems are not a party of garbage.
- Remember how the Bush administration lost some 22 million emails that were hosted on an RNC server that should have been covered by FOIA requests and how the Dems made a big deal out of it?
No?
Me either...because the Dems are not a party of garbage.
- Remember how the Bush administration let Russia invade Georgia and didn't do anything to stop them and how the Dems made a big deal out of it?
No?
Me either...because the Dems are not a party of garbage.
etc, etc, etc...
Considering you have an official spokesman out there saying Obama invaded Afghanistan and a surrogate pretending 9/11 didn't happen because Islamic Terrorism only started after 2008? It's the fuckin' fact-free zone.
Manmademan
Member
so what happens if the republicans lose the house majority?
Hydrophobic
Member
Holy shit, that post on OT about Manafort's link to violent Anti-US protests in Ukraine is crazy. Does this week get even worse for that dude?
By Lauren Carroll on Sunday, March 15th, 2015 at 5:49 p.m.
Let's try comparing the coverage again in August 2016!
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Quinnipiac poll in Colorado is showing Bennet up by 16 points in our Senate Race, 54/38.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
The accusation was that the Bush email scandal was not used as a political talking point by Democrats in 2007. My link proves it was.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I get coming to MS for these reasons, but I don't know why you'd pick one of the places with a shit ton of minorities here. Should've gone with somewhere that wouldn't be guaranteed to get protest coverage. Jackson actually has D-words working there (democrats!).
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
The mostly false was about Juan Williams saying there was zero press coverage.
Bowdz comment is exactly right.
Your very link says this:
Bowdz also mentioned the Dems response, not the medias response, which is what your link references.
You're right, the Dems did use it as a political issue. My bad.
Fragamemnon
Member
I can get behind going to Jackson,MS for a fundraiser and then hold a rally afterwards so they don't waste an entire day, but I'm surprised they couldn't find a venue in the suburbs.
I know Mississippi. The urban area in Jackson is not GOP ground like the places he's held his other rallies.
I know Mississippi. The urban area in Jackson is not GOP ground like the places he's held his other rallies.
Box of Kittens
Banned
And Trump has chosen the worst of both worlds by technically keeping him on the campaign while letting a couple of enablers take over for him.
The race will tighten up during the debates because no matter how bad Trump comes off the narrative will be that he did better than expected/Hillary is an out of touch bully.
This happened every race since 2000 like clockwork. Usually the Republican "wins" the first debate, they tie the second one, and the Democrat "wins" the third one.
This happened every race since 2000 like clockwork. Usually the Republican "wins" the first debate, they tie the second one, and the Democrat "wins" the third one.
Fragamemnon
Member
Trump could "do well" in the first debate because his expectations will be slightly above "he didn't light a bag of poop on fire!". What'll actually happen is that he'll be a giant bully and idiot and further alienate women and college educated voters who were already leaning Hillary.
aspiegamer
Member
This is a campaign that held a rally for "Milwaukee" focused specifically around issues specific to Milwaukee in a town 30 miles away. They seriously don't care about the specifics of where they hold events or put any effort into it. There's absolutely no way they're considerate enough to think "that might be risky with a higher minority population." Someone thought "oh, a red state, that's safe, so let's find the biggest venue possible."
I was thinking that the "shake-up" new personnel were a setup for Manafort resigning immediately in the face of this awful stuff, but yeah apparently not. The Trump campaign can even handle getting rid of people properly.
The media is too predictable on debates this century. No matter what happens Trump will win the first debate. If the popular opinion is that he didn't then he is truly and totally fucked.
djplaeskool
Member
Truly a servant of the people...
Box of Kittens
Banned
2000 of course the press was all over Al Gore for those sighs.
As I recall the consensus in 2004 was actually that Kerry won the first debate. Bush was criticized for coming across as whiny.
I honestly remember relatively little of the 2008 debates other than Palin winking and sounding incomprehensible.
2012, on the other hand, was a treasure trove. After the disappointment of the first debate you had Biden eviscerating Ryan, "binders full of women," "please proceed, governor," etc.
I'm guessing Hillary and her campaign are preparing for several possible scenarios in the debates, among them (but not limited to): Crazy Trump that can't stick to the allotted time and tries to basically do repeat a rally on stage; Calm but dumb Trump that will lose to Hillary when it comes to policy questions; Attacking Trump, who will go after Hillary with every single controversy they've got and interrupt her constantly; Presidential (pivot) Trump that will stick to broad specifics and a populist tone.
Hillary should be more worried about the last one, because Trump might avoid even being confrontational with Hillary and simply appear not as crazy as he really, forcing Hillary to simply repeat policy answers. She shouldn't attack Trump directly in this case, simply contrasting their policies, which should be enough, hoping Trump just says something stupid.
The worse thing she can do is a repeat of Obama in the first 2012 debate, appearing unprepared and flustered at Romney's attempts of reinventing himself.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Truly a servant of the people...
Oh em gee
Hillary is escalating her fast-food vote-buying
Truly a servant of the people...
Hillary endorses Domino's? I may have to rethink my vote.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Pan pizza w/ pepperoni bacon and onions is legit yo
I remember off the top of my head:
"That one"
And something along the lines of
McCain: gotcha zinger
Obama: I agree!
McCain: ... ok ._.
Fragamemnon
Member
metalslimer
Member
President Obama really does need to go to Louisiana. It's crazy how little media coverage the disaster has gotten compared to the severity. People have spent an equal amount of time covering this stupid Lochte story this week
They have got a private plane owned by the candidate which literally makes him money to use. He could do a fundraiser and then jet to a swing state (Georgia!) But he is lazy. Remember, every Trump accusation against Hillary (lazy, sleepy) is always a reflection on himself.
I agree wholeheartedly. It is not only a terrible disaster that needs more coverage, but it is a TERRIBLE look politically for the president to be on vacation in Martha's Vineyard while thousands of people are displaced due to record floods.
No, slicing up hot garbage is debate prep.
Let the man have a goddamn vacation! Especially when at least half of it is probably dealing with world shit including the Louisiana floods.
User 463088
Banned
This is not true at all!
In 2000, 48% said Gore and 41% said Bush won the first debate. In the 2nd debate, 49% of debate watchers said Bush won the debate, compared with only 36% picking Gore.The third debate, it was 46% for Gore and 44% for Bush.
In 2004, Kerry was seen to have won the first debate 53% to 37%. Bush did better in subsequent debates, through a few unforced errors on behalf of Kerry.
In 2008, Obama was seen to have won the first debate 51–38. Obama won the second 54% to 30%. And the third 58% thought Obama won and 31% thought McCain won.
If you want to argue that when expectations are low, people grade on the curve, we can look at the Vice Presidential debate between Biden and Palin. 51% thought Biden won and 36% thought Palin won. Uncommitted votes broke 46/21 to Biden, with 33% saying it was a tie.
In 2012, Obama bombed the first debate because Obama is often a terrible debater. Obama clearly won the 2nd and 3rd.
So, your take applies only to one election out of the last four.
Also the debates seem to have a similar effect to the conventions, where a bounce is produced which usually reverts back to the general state of the race. A lot of zingers and debate lines that are celebrated now ("no Jack Kennedy", "youth and inexperience") hardly changed their respective races. Romney's bump wore off too as did Obama's.
metalslimer
Member
Speaking of media failures, it's amazing how terribly the media has covered the Syrian refugee crisis and the situation in Syria in general
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I think Trump calling Hillary a cunt during the debate would cause a polling change that lasts until the convention.
User 463088
Banned
Kellyanne equating the attacks against Hillary's health to the criticisms of Trump refusing to release his tax returns.....
FloydtheFathead
Member
Papa John's > Domino'sTruly a servant of the people...
Cesare Borgia
Banned
I'd disagree. This is going to be a debate between two people who aren't president: there is no "usually" to make note of in these case. Whereas there are many examples of incumbent presidents struggling in at least one debate, usually the first one. The problem being that a president isn't used to being told "no" or "you're fucking this up" because...well, he's the president. Bush looked terrible in the first debate with Kerry not because he didn't prepare, but because he couldn't hide his disdain for someone challenging him. Most presidents are like that to some extent.
Kerry out preformed Obama during most of their 2012 mock debates. Obama was "prepared" but he simply did not take the mock debates as seriously as he should have, nor was he concerned about Romney. And it bit him in the ass. After that first debate he preformed better in mock debates and ultimately bested Romney in the next two debates.
If I was advising Trump I'd tell him to basically knock Hillary out. His only chance of "winning" is to dominate and intimidate her to the point she loses composure or falls flat. I'm guessing this will be the strategy since "let Trump be Trump" is back on the menu. It's not going to work, obviously, but it's the only hail mary he has. Such a performance could embolden his base and impression some regular voters. Like I said it's not going to work but still.
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