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[CoffeeJanitor]

In other exciting news...

http://election.princeton.edu

Probability of Clinton win: random drift 92%, Bayesian 95%

for anyone wondering why the big jump

He changed the standard deviation for the model from 6% (average from the 50s to now) to 3% (average from 94 till now)

Basically elections are narrower and have tended to move less recently so he switched his model to account for that--prob of thing moving the other way is low

 

[Y2Kev]

ADJUSTED LEADER TRUMP + 6

Oh no Iowa is tied FUCK

State of the race today: TIED

 

[Iolo]

I-It's not like I like you, or anything
B-Baka Ohio
💘, Trump

 

[PantherLotus]

If Russert were still alive he'd have been destroyed like Rather and Brokaw and Williams at this point. Nobody is safe from conservative hysteria.

 

[RustyNails]

Going for the Diablosing Silver and Bronze medals on the final day of the Olympics, are we?

Wow the olympics are finally over? Thank god. No more bullshitting the water cooler talk. It was hell.

 

[RustyNails]

I wonder what the DNC fart-in people are doing these days. Shilling for Jill or Trump?

 

[Dierce]

This is Clinton's campaign second opportunity to corner orange turd, keep him from pivoting any further and even damage his appeal among his base. She only has to come out and say that orange turd will do and say anything to get some votes, call him out on his lies and turn his 'strongman' persona into the desperate coward that he is. She needs to do this personally.

If Clinton comes out today and says that she's hearing that orange turd is walking back on the immigration proposals he had up to this month, along with other things, it will keep him from making them and if he does it will damage his appeal.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

for anyone wondering why the big jump

He changed the standard deviation for the model from 6% (average from the 50s to now) to 3% (average from 94 till now)

Basically elections are narrower and have tended to move less recently so he switched his model to account for that--prob of thing moving the other way is low

This seems unlike the more standard elections we've had before though.

 

[Y2Kev]

This seems unlike the more standard elections we've had before though.

Um in what way? Voter "certainty" in all recent polls is extremely high. The electorate is more polarized than ever. This seems exactly like standard elections and electorally even looks like 2012. Are we just saying things now because it is fun to freak out

 

[kess]

excuse me, excuse me, it's a shutdown of high risk countries that have produced terrorists, which is actually probably far more strict than just the general muslim ban!

It's what his supporters hear. Like they ever cared about Christians or intellectuals from the Middle East besides using them as some kind of prop, anyway.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Um in what way? Voter "certainty" in all recent polls is extremely high. The electorate is more polarized than ever. This seems exactly like standard elections and electorally even looks like 2012. Are we just saying things now because it is fun to freak out

Seems like there's still a lot of undecided people out there, two candidates with high unfavorable numbers, and 4 candidates, 5 in some states.

 

[Piecake]

http://www.scotsman.com/news/trump-...ce-us-inquiry-over-suspect-finances-1-4208359

Trump’s Scottish golf resorts face US inquiry over ‘suspect’ finances

This seems like a big deal

 

[kess]

Trump is running sponsored ads on the front page of reddit now

 

[User 463088]

I like being right.

 

[Slayven]

I wonder what the DNC fart-in people are doing these days. Shilling for Jill or Trump?

playing hackeye sack

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Strange movement in the not so important morning consult weekly poll. H2H basically stayed the same if you consider statistical noise while 4way went from +6 to +3 entirely due to Trump's ridiculously low 33 percent vote share recovering to 36.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Rudy really has reached a whole new level of unhinged recently. It's sad.

 

[User 463088]

Jill raised a little over a million. California was the state that gave her the most California is a mess. California was a mistake.

 

[Y2Kev]

Wow they're not adjusting YouGov anymore. Sad!

 

[nature boy]

Strange movement in the not so important morning consult weekly poll. H2H basically stayed the same if you consider statistical noise while 4way went from +6 to +3 entirely due to Trump's ridiculously low 33 percent vote share recovering to 36.

This is probably the most important bit:

 

[Iolo]

This is probably the most important bit:

.

Looks to me like Jill and Gary have the most upside.

 

[nature boy]

Looks to me like Jill and Gary have the most upside.

Not really, they're not going to play any important role in the election.

50% unwilling to vote for Trump no matter what shuts down his ability to catch up to Clinton.

 

[Y2Kev]

Looks to me like Jill and Gary have the most upside.

 

[theultimo]

Looks to me that Jill and Gary have the most upside.

 

[kadotsu]

Just imagine how utterly destroyed those four would get if McMullin was included.

 

[Spiritreaver]

Whoa Johnson really is going to win this, amazing. Thanks for posting.

 

[nature boy]

FUCK FUCK FUCK

Trump ahead in People's Pundit Daily tracking poll.

FUCK FUCK

 

[whyamihere]

This is probably the most important bit:

Johnson's got this

Am I late like England

 

[Plinko]

+6 in Ohio is 380 EV territory. That's amazing.

And that's LIKELY voters, so looking good in Ohio.

Kasich is really helping here. His refusal to support Trump has been great for Hillary.

 

[Holmes]

Pretty good for YouGov.

 

[Iolo]

The rise of the alt-right — named for the Alternative Right website that the “identitarian” nationalist Richard Spencer set up in 2010 and adopted by those opposed to multiculturalism and mass immigration — has come to define how many of its adherents see Trump.

Oh finally someone explains it

 

[Y2Kev]

Iowa don't got no colleges

I don't think college educated whites are really tricked by Trump. I see a lot of reversal in non-college educated whites but it's hard to believe college educated women are suddenly going to be like oh ok he's not a racist.

 

[sc0la]

I wonder what the DNC fart-in people are doing these days. Shilling for Jill or Trump?

Still scrubbing skid marks out of their unders. You can't force this stuff.

Looks to me like Jill and Gary have the most upside.

Did I miss a meme or is this spontaneous copy pasta?

 

[DrForester]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...ele-bachmann-advising-trump-on-foreign-policy

Tea Party firebrand Michele Bachmann says she is advising Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on foreign policy.

I threw up a little...

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

+6 in Ohio is niiiice.

Iowa looks like it's going to be the true toss-up state this year.



meh, I really don't care for changing the model mid-stream like this. :/ Even if Sam's reasoning makes total sense (esp. if you look at the graph on his site), it feels too much putting your thumb on the scale to get the result you want.

i agree...should have rode the model out

It was converging, anyways

 

[Iolo]

Still scrubbing skid marks out of their unders. You can't force this stuff.

Did I miss a meme or is this spontaneous copy pasta?

Looks to me like Gil and Jerry have the most upside.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Trump +2 in that LA Times/USC poll.

 

[royalan]

Symone Sanders on CNN gives me life.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Rudy is literally repeating a conspiracy theory started by Mike Cernovich.

This is incredible.

 

[Bowdz]

Symone Sanders on CNN gives me life.

Yeah, I'm really glad she's on our side now. She was a great pickup for Bernie in the primaries and was one of the really Effect communicators that Tema Sanders' had.

 

[royalan]

Judging by this week, and by the media's reaction to it, it might be time to consider that the pivot is real this time.

So the Clinton Campaign needs to stop letting Trump have the media to himself, like now.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Iowa don't got no colleges

I don't think college educated whites are really tricked by Trump. I see a lot of reversal in non-college educated whites but it's hard to believe college educated women are suddenly going to be like oh ok he's not a racist.

FUCK!

 

[Slizeezyc]

Judging by this week, and by the media's reaction to it, it might be time to consider that the pivot is real this time.

So the Clinton Campaign needs to stop letting Trump have the media to himself, like now.

 

[thebloo]

Judging by this week, and by the media's reaction to it, it might be time to consider that the pivot is real this time.

So the Clinton Campaign needs to stop letting Trump have the media to himself, like now.

Wait for tomorrow. If he makes it through the day then yeah, go for it. But let's see.

 

[Grexeno]

Judging by this week, and by the media's reaction to it, it might be time to consider that the pivot is real this time.

So the Clinton Campaign needs to stop letting Trump have the media to himself, like now.

 

[metalslimer]

Man I can't even imagine the diablosing if Rubio or kasich had gotten the nomination

 

[Spoiled Milk]

FUCK

TRUMP IS GOING TO SUPPORT AMNESTY

FUCK

 

[Bowdz]

So I decided to start rewatching The West Wing yesterday and I had completely forgot how scarily accurate it was. I had forgotten about the Freedom Watch group in season one that was suing the White House for all internal documents of an internal drug use "investigation" using FOIA and how they deposed Josh. It is absurdly similar to Judicial Watch's bullshit this season (I know they are based off of them).

 

[watershed]

Keep in mind that teleprompter Trump is boring as hell.

Also we should stop pretending like the Clinton campaign are all asleep. They're expanding the map, blanketing the airwaves, and funding a much larger ground game than Trump's campaign.

 

[royalan]

I think people have conned themselves into thinking that a Trump Pivot, if it were to ever truly happen, would make Trump seem like a liberal Democrat or something.

No.

Trump's pivot was always about making him seem like a typical Republican. Still racist, still conservative on social issues, still trickle-down, still mum on the facts. That was always the pivot, and he did that last week.