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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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So much noise about immediate strategy to sweep away Trump's insults and reset his campaign.

Whats the point, really?

If he performs as best as he's capable of in the White House his messes are going to become far more costly, and not nearly as easily remedied.

If he can't rise to the occasion with his own fucking people in his own fucking party and his own country, how does anybody suppose he'll fair on the world stage among sovereigns with more history than his little mind can comprehend, not to mention emerging non-state actors?

What contingencies can even be imagined among our allies and adversaries now that our system has raised this farce to within a coin toss of real power?

Its fucking nutballs.
 
Like I said on the OT thread that was locked, I feel like I COMPLETELY misunderstood Gran Torino after the recent Clint Eastwood comments.

I had read it (well, back then) as a movie about an old man coming to grips with the reality and the struggle that a minority family faces in the country. It felt almost like an autobiographical movie. It felt personal.

Then Clint talked to a chair, of course, but that was easy enough to dismiss as a separate thing.

Now his recent comments explicitly referencing the movie... I must have completely missed its point.

Just saw that thread....ugh you are completely right. I was holding out hope the chair thing was some high form of satire, but now his comments... Love Eastwood's roles and GBU may be my favorite film of all time. Always sucks when you find out these people are assholes.
 
Co8YFQ5WgAAwodR.jpg

From WH Briefing in January.

This Iran thing is the biggest nothing burger ever. Nothing secret about it.
 

hawk2025

Member
paging hawk

that kansas thread in OT might need a comprehensive round-up of why brownback's economic policies are complete shit

I can't friend :(


I'm making a conscious effort to not engage on the subject anymore. I try to thread a fine line between overwhelming and boring people with links and graphs versus being more assertive and direct, and it always takes far, far too long with little to no payback.

The Liberals vs Left thread kinda broke me tbh
 
From WH Briefing in January.

This Iran thing is the biggest nothing burger ever. Nothing secret about it.

You just don't understand okay. You don't understand. The media isn't covering it. They're not covering it. They're crooked. Very crooked people. Obama and Crooked Hillary sent money on a plane. A big plane. And it flew in at night okay? It flew in at night. And there was money. Cash money. It was piled biggly up. Very biggly. Okay? Two, three four feet high. There's never been money piled as bigly as that before. Believe me. Believe me. But, listen folks, we don't hear about it. We don't hear about it.
 
Back in 2004, Billy Bush followed Donald Trump as he was going to vote in New York City, but things turned sour very quickly when a mix-up occurred with The Donald's polling location. Check out Billy trying to stay out of Trump's way as The Donald gets more and more heated due to being turned away from the polls!
Read more at https://www.accesshollywood.com/vid...isaster-a-look-back-2004/#fyiXYZmoKgZ5kZWt.99
OMG I WAS RIGHT. TRUMP DOESN'T NORMALLY VOTE AND KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT THE PROCESS!!!
 

hawk2025

Member
We barely even got started!

I'd have been perfectly happy engaging exactly two people in that thread:

You and Crab. I actually almost added that to that previous post :p

Everything else was just a wave of bullshit. I actually caught myself writing basically 4 TeX pages on what a counterfactual is that I had planned on posting as images on GAF until I realized what the fuck I was doing!

I also realized that I was coming far too close to pulling credentials on people in recent threads, and that's just plain shitty debating, obviously coming from being frustrated and just wanting to shut down conversation. So it was a good time to take a step back for now I think.
 
The Liberals vs Left thread kinda broke me tbh

more proof that socialism ruins everything

honestly though, i'm kinda feeling that. this cycle's doing a number on my willingness to engage with people, which is mainly related to my social media timelines being full of people who don't ever feel like fact checking or doing their own research but also has something to do with OT seemingly being messier than usual
 

Piecake

Member
A key document obtained by BuzzFeed News shows how the GOP nominee took control of a taxpayer-owned landmark near the White House with only a $2.4 million equity investment. He also gave more than 22% of the project to his children Ivanka, Donald Jr., and Eric.

The stakes were allocated through separate companies bearing each of the children’s names, and the document indicates that those companies did not invest money. Nevertheless, their stakes could earn the children a big chunk of any profits generated from the taxpayer-owned site.

Trump has created a “wealth generation mechanism for his kids,” said Peter Smirniotopoulos, an adjunct professor of real estate at George Washington University School of Business. Smirniotopoulos said he does not support either Trump or Hillary Clinton for president.

“Clearly this deal is a highly leveraged transaction,” said real estate finance expert Daniel Alpert, who reviewed the new document and others related to the Trump lease. Alpert, managing partner of the investment bank Westwood Capital Partners LLC, said he did not support Donald Trump and has donated to the campaigns of Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.

What is known is that Trump found ways to leverage his own wealth without putting cash on the table. According to a redacted version of the lease that was released to the public, Trump was required to put down a security deposit of $4 million — but in the form of a letter of credit, not cash. Trump himself was listed as the personal guarantor of the project, records indicate, signing a $40 million guaranty — which apparently also required no cash up front. That guaranty could be reduced based on how much equity Trump contributed to the project, the GSA said in a report to Congress.

Trump Gave His Kids A Big Stake In Huge Government Deal, Document Shows

Interesting...
 

sphagnum

Banned
I'd have been perfectly happy engaging exactly two people in that thread:

You and Crab. I actually almost added that to that previous post :p

Everything else was just a wave of bullshit. I actually caught myself writing basically 4 TeX pages on what a counterfactual is that I had planned on posting as images on GAF until I realized what the fuck I was doing!

I also realized that I was coming far too close to pulling credentials on people in recent threads, and that's just plain shitty debating, obviously coming from being frustrated and just wanting to shut down conversation. So it was a good time to take a step back for now I think.

I wanted to see your response to the Al Jazeera critique that Mecha posted about the poverty stats.
 

hawk2025

Member
I wanted to see your response to the Al Jazeera critique that Mecha posted about the poverty stats.

I'll post it here. I'm actually having lunch with a friend that does Trade tomorrow that was sparked by that and it might turn into something much bigger.
 

Joeytj

Banned
Clinton is up 11 in this PA poll among likely voters and up 13 among registered voters: http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/517148503881751921-f-m-poll-release-july-2016.pdf

Not sure how reliable this is.

Franklin & Marshall are good pollsters (they have e B+ rating from 538), especially in the Northeast, although the last poll they did of PA was back in March. So yeah, it looks like we're about to get a bunch of great battleground state polls for HIllary.

And horrible for Trump. Oh boy.
 
Like I said on the OT thread that was locked, I feel like I COMPLETELY misunderstood Gran Torino after the recent Clint Eastwood comments.

I had read it (well, back then) as a movie about an old man coming to grips with the reality and the struggle that a minority family faces in the country. It felt almost like an autobiographical movie. It felt personal.

Then Clint talked to a chair, of course, but that was easy enough to dismiss as a separate thing.

Now his recent comments explicitly referencing the movie... I must have completely missed its point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Death_of_the_Author

Join us in postmodern literary criticism, we have cookies!
 

kess

Member
It's seriously mind boggling how awful the media has been. Now they are reporting NYT's video about Trump's vulgar, profane, outright racist rallies? Where the fuck have they been for the past year. It seems like none of them wanted to touch that incendiary bomb for the fear of losing Trump access. But now that NYT blew the lid open, they can reference that in their reporting. Spineless. Same thing happened with Teaparty rallies around 2011. Like no outlet would dare discuss the rampant racism in these rallies.

The Trump campaign gave campaign credentials to the white supremacist who runs the Political Cesspool, but it wasn't reported much outside people who have been following the alt right for years.
 
Clinton is up 11 in this PA poll among likely voters and up 13 among registered voters: http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/517148503881751921-f-m-poll-release-july-2016.pdf

LV
Clinton: 49
Trump: 38
Other: 6
Don't know: 8

RV
Clinton: 48
Trump: 35
Other: 9
Don't know: 8


Not sure how reliable this is.

If I'm reading this right, they have the racial break down as

RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background?
93% White
7% Non-white

And she's still winning. By a lot.

Also

Philadelphia 83% 7%

Philly you da real MVP.

Also

Dat gender gap doe

Female 58% 27%
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Reasons not to vote Trump #3,562: Can you imagine what a graceless turgid embarrassing mess the White House Correspondents' Dinner would be?
 
Reasons not to vote Trump #3,562: Can you imagine what a graceless turgid embarrassing mess the White House Correspondents' Dinner would be?

I'm pretty sure, like 90% sure, that the first thing he'd do as President is lock up the press. And I'm only like 30% joking right now.
 

Zereta

Member
I'm on summer break now so I have a lot of time but I literally spend every waking minute following this trainwreck. My brain's exhausted.

Can't we just time travel to election day now? Please?
 
Some Morning Consult numbers about the Khantroversy:

Do Donald Trump’s criticisms and responses to the Khan family make you more or less likely to vote for Donald Trump in the 2016 election?

.................................More....Less.....No Difference
Registered Voters.........14%....34%.....41%
Democrats....................6%.....53%.....32%
Independents................9%.....31%.....45%
Republicans................28%.....14%......49%

Do you agree or disagree with Khan’s statement that Donald Trump has ”sacrificed nothing, and no one” in defense of the United States?

..............................Agree.....Disagree....IDK Maybe?
Registered................51%......26%.....22%
Democrats ................74%......12%.....14%
Independents............47%.......24%.....29%
Republicans..............30%.......45%......24%

So, hot take: 14% of Registered voters in this country are disgusting, including 6% of Democrats. The things I have to say about them are not nice.

So, Trump managed to turn off 34% of the country. That's....special.

Edit: For some reason, they buried the more interesting questions in their cross tabs. I'm only going to post registered voters because it's 3am and I have to work

Do you think Donald Trump’s criticisms and responses to the Khan family are appropriate, or not appropriate?
Appropriate: 18%
Inappropriate: 59%
 
It's seriously mind boggling how awful the media has been. Now they are reporting NYT's video about Trump's vulgar, profane, outright racist rallies? Where the fuck have they been for the past year.
This is why dat pivot almost always works to some degree. During the primaries, the broader media mostly just loves to rant and talk about crazy shit. It's just the primaries! Once the GE starts? When actual matters of leadership start to arise? When the general public starts to pay a little attention and not just political weirdos? When it turns from a spectator sport into a blood sport? When the impact of "real" journalism is substantially enhanced?

Romney's campaign explained it perfectly. Basically just shrug off everything that happened and that you might have said in the primaries and pretend they never existed, get on your message and stay there. Just outright lie about stuff if that's easier to do than trying to explain even a fairly harmless thing. On message, on message, on message. All controversies do die eventually so put more effort into stamping them out than explaining, even if it's not a harmful topic.

Trump's campaign is fucking terrible at stamping things out, and even worse at explaining them, so even the tiniest media skirmish gets blown out of proportion, and they never die because the candidate himself refuses to let them. Had all this absurd bullshit been spread out over the course of a few months and Trump's campaign disciplined, this is mostly stuff you could recover from. Hell, Clinton has had some lousy crap the past week but it's so low-key compared to Trump blunders that it's snuffed out of the press in a day. But Trump's team are inexperienced (or incompetent) nitwits totally out of their league. Even better, they seem to be becoming self-aware that they're out of their league as they go long! Much more entertaining. Things are typically only this dire in a closing week or two, and in 2012 we didn't have this phase at all because the GOP had inexplicably convinced itself that it was going to win despite all scientific evidence to the contrary.

TLDR; more readers, more attention, more drama, more kudos up for grabs.
 

Brinbe

Member
That PA poll is good news. Nail down PA and the election is already pretty much over.
akUfVS9.png


And with a few likely pickups not even considering FL/OH.
h4IY7bu.png
 

CCS

Banned
This is all looking pretty beautiful.

And Trump is such an immature egomaniac I don't believe he has the ability to turn things round.
 

Brinbe

Member
Pssst, you don't need New Mexico there.
Pennsylvania, Virginia and Nevada are enough.

True, you're right. It's because I had PA/VA/NM initially selected (since NM is a way bigger lock than NV and she definitely won't win NV and lose NM) and that's 269 lol. So NV puts her over the top. Either way, it works. At this point, I don't even care about margins and running up those EVs, I just want to shut him out of any path to 270 now.

Watching that scary NYT vid just put everything in greater perspective. Those crowds are the 35-40% that'll vote Trump regardless of what he does.
 
Considering the awful conditions of Fox News including the sexual harassment that all her make co-workers were pretending didn't happen, I wouldn't be suprised if she left
 

shem935

Banned
Hmm weird, trump told me he was way ahead in New Hampshire and he didn't need that endorsement. No way Donny was wrong I guess the system must be rigged.
 

AniHawk

Member
johnson constantly at 8-9% and stein constantly at 2-3% is weird. will that hold up through the election? i have a feeling the johnson voters are republicans, which would make downballot voting look the same as always. of course, trump voters could be first-timers or one-time voters that don't care as much or know as much about other parts of the election.
 

Kusagari

Member
@skoczela

Our New Hampshire poll for @WBUR:
Clinton 47%
Trump 32%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%
Undecided / Other 9%

You left out the even crazier result

Steve Koczela ‏@skoczela 1h1 hour ago

Our New Hampshire Senate poll for @WBUR:
Hassan: 50%
Ayotte: 40%
Other/Undecided 10%
Jul 29-Aug 1

Trump is sinking Ayotte.
 
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