Well, how long did this pivot last?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!
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Well, how long did this pivot last?
For the past 26 years?
The internet ruins everything
User 463088
Banned
I think you're being a little harsh here.
They only undersampled African Americans by 13 points. That's an easy mistake to make! It's also 6 points more male than 2012, but we won't let a little thing like that stand in the way.
They also managed a SC poll that had Trump up only by 4.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Hey Mark! The Kirk store called, they're running out of YOU!
User 463088
Banned
And Nate includes that obviously insane poll in his model and corrects it to a "tie" because of course.
Like, that poll is not based in reality whatsoever. We also know Breitbart has hired Gravis to do "correct" polls. Nate, brah, come on.
Like, that poll is not based in reality whatsoever. We also know Breitbart has hired Gravis to do "correct" polls. Nate, brah, come on.
Even a breitbart sponsered poll is showing trump struggling in SC compared to other republican presidential candidates in the past. LMAO.
Yeah, that reeks of desperation, the more they go on that attack. All Hillary has to do is suddenly be alive and sound smart, which she does on a regular basis.
Right now, they are attacking her and her health, hoping (like Adam says) to provoke the campaign into a) launching the same kind of attack against Trump, or b) get her into releasing her medical records or something.
I hope the media does its job and points out, fiercely, just how ridiculous the accusations about her health are.
Didn't SurveyUSA pull the same thing? Twice?
It's dumb. I have a feeling some Republicans will be flabbergasted and she'll crush in NC.
Do the guys at 538 correct those polls manually or is it the model doing that? I doubt Nate looks at the polls and says "nah, this is the real number". Not excusing the ridiculousness of the poll or making it a tie, but I think it's a bit more complicated than just adjusting it willy nilly.
Unless, he too is now such a pundit that he wants the race to be closer just to get 'dem hits' on his site.
Which is the most likely reason.
User 463088
Banned
SurveyUSA only managed to undersample by 5-6 point. Missing it by 13 is just...I mean, the information is publicly available in NC!
Nate only corrects for the pollster's lean, not demographics. But, like, garbage in, garbage out, you know? I take issue with these Gravis polls being used because Breitbard made it clear they want polls that are favorable to Trump.
Also, come on, 10% AA? Like, how could you release that with a straight face!
shinra-bansho
Member
111th dimensional Ailes Bannon chess to show how the lyin' liberal crooked media distorts anything Trump says.
BlastProcessing
Member
@adityasood
Olympic Medals by President:
289 Obama
282 Reagan
270 W.
220 Clinton
211 LBJ
180 HST
162 Ike
119 GHWB
104 Ford
102 Nixon
60 FDR
12 Carter
USA USA USA.
The Olympics really does take the air out of Trump's "America doesn't win anymore" shtick.
Olympic Medals by President:
289 Obama
282 Reagan
270 W.
220 Clinton
211 LBJ
180 HST
162 Ike
119 GHWB
104 Ford
102 Nixon
60 FDR
12 Carter
USA USA USA.
The Olympics really does take the air out of Trump's "America doesn't win anymore" shtick.
brianmcdoogle
Member
Regarding Sam Wang at Princeton Election, I was under the impression that he was always going to potentially change the model once it became clear that this was going to be an uncertain year of polling or something akin to what we've seen in the last few decades. Since polarization hasn't caused any real disruptions, he adjusted the model to something like it has been in previous years. I guess the real news about it is he decided to do it today instead of Labor Day as is the norm.
Clinton is in the hospital dying of something, and Kaine is subbing in for one of the harmonica-playing animatronics at a Virginian Chuck E Cheese.
Clinton is in the hospital dying of something, and Kaine is subbing in for one of the harmonica-playing animatronics at a Virginian Chuck E Cheese.
Hillary's twitter feed has been pretty on the ball congratulating all the winners as well.
Black Republican
Member
Damn , Carter, shitty luck
I think it's more about trump withstanding the trials of the amnesty lobby. He confronted them and dud not succumb to their crooked agenda.
User 463088
Banned
The swing is all based on shitty online polls, mainly the fact that they use that asinine USC thing repeatedly. It's so reactionary. It's stupid. Upshot and PEC have shown no change at all. Well upshot, has moved it a point or two both ways.
There's a new poll out of PA. Trump is ahead by 5.
FUCK!
Except...it was a robo poll. The margin of error is 7.1%. It was done over one night. And, the best part? They refused to weight the responses based on race. The results show that Hillary gets mot of her support from white people, while Trump gets most of his support from "minorities." The only thing they did adjust for was gender...which they said was a benefit to Trump because he's winning women in the state. Oh, and no one under 30 took part in the poll. Period.
OLOLOLOLOL
Their rationale is word salad beautiful.
Keep you guessing (and clicking).
The US participated in one olympic games while he was president. The US participated in two or more olympics while the other people in that list were president besides FDR if I recall.
How the hell can you even call that a "poll"?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Hopefully Silver upholds some semblance of standards and refuses to use it.
He's just saying the variance increased.
You can only really compare presidents who served two full terms (two Olympics). The U.S. boycotted the Moscow Olympics during Carter's term, so, yeah.
I know this is pretty meaningless, but I still wish Ray-gun and Dubya weren't so high. And holy shit @ Carter.
User 463088
Banned
OMG
That PA poll is from a Canadian company.
OMG it gets better and better. lol
That PA poll is from a Canadian company.
OMG it gets better and better. lol
brianmcdoogle
Member
This is an interesting discussion on Trump's 1980s style campaign vs Clinton's 2010s style campaign, with regards to data.
Why Donald Trumps 1980s-style campaign is struggling in 2016
Why Donald Trumps 1980s-style campaign is struggling in 2016
He'll adjust and call it a "tie" XD
He also says that, like in 2012, state polls are better at predicting the final popular vote tally and winner, and that seems to be playing out this year too.
Hillary is outperforming national polls in state polls so far. Silver extrapolates her national performance based also on state polls, and viceversa. Let's see how next week goes, which is also the first week since with no Conventions or Olympics.
Just full on General Election.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Okay, I have a theory on why "Hillary is a sickly old woman who will die soon!" is catching on.
Basically, uncucked Republicans were hoping that Trump supporters would kill Hillary. However, after nothing happened after the "maybe the second amendment people can do something, I don't know," these non-cucks remembered that Trump fans are total losers who can kill people in ambushes but have no chance of executing an assassination.
So they were just really hopeful that Hillary was going to be killed and now they realize that it won't happen.
So now they have to fantasize about another way Hillary will die.
Basically, uncucked Republicans were hoping that Trump supporters would kill Hillary. However, after nothing happened after the "maybe the second amendment people can do something, I don't know," these non-cucks remembered that Trump fans are total losers who can kill people in ambushes but have no chance of executing an assassination.
So they were just really hopeful that Hillary was going to be killed and now they realize that it won't happen.
So now they have to fantasize about another way Hillary will die.
User 463088
Banned
The thing is, Nate is basing his "things have maybe tightened" based on this week's polls.
The polls we've had are:
Morning Consult (online tracking)
USC (not a poll)
IPSOS (online tracking, showing the race exactly where it was before)
CVoter (online, static or she's increased her lead by 1 point if we want to be 100%)
Gravis (showing the same 5 point margin)
Survey Monkey (showing the same margin as before)
The one decent poll is Pew...which by their own admission had sample issues. Plus, it was the first time they did a 4 way race.
I wouldn't predict an increase in indigestion based on these.
The polls we've had are:
Morning Consult (online tracking)
USC (not a poll)
IPSOS (online tracking, showing the race exactly where it was before)
CVoter (online, static or she's increased her lead by 1 point if we want to be 100%)
Gravis (showing the same 5 point margin)
Survey Monkey (showing the same margin as before)
The one decent poll is Pew...which by their own admission had sample issues. Plus, it was the first time they did a 4 way race.
I wouldn't predict an increase in indigestion based on these.
missing the 286 under teddy.
User 463088
Banned
Or a simpler explanation:
Hillary is a woman. Women are weak. Men are virile and strong. She is not a man. Therefore, she's weak and sick.
Never look for a complex answer where sexism will suffice.
brianmcdoogle
Member
Doesn't hold up. The health rumors have been around since she was Secretary and suffered a mild concussion in like 2012 or so.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
But it hasn't a thing that the Trump campaign has pushed until after the "second amendment people" passed.
US boycotted the summer games in '80 and the winter games awards far fewer medals.
Miracle on Ice was under Carter, though, so he wins automatically.
User 463088
Banned
A 40 year old with the knowledge and life experience to be a decent President are few and far between.
Yeah, It's definitely more sexism. Mexico's first woman candidate from a major party, Josefina Vazquez, was constantly called weak and bogged by health rumors, although she did actually had several episodes during the campaign where she fainted a bit and even appeared to be too tired to continue a speech. She didn't appear to be ready for a national campaign. She never had problems after that and since the election ended (and she lost), she's been ok.
But compared to her, Hillary looks like Michael Phelps.
Lol which pollster?
brianmcdoogle
Member
Sometimes it takes a while for people to catch on to something. I mean, it took Poligaf a while to finally turn against Nate Silver, Anthony Weiner, and Julian Castro (Booker will be next, mark my words!)
But in some seriousness, I think it is just the usual lagging. Last year especially people on the Right were talking about Clinton's health. In fact, both Clinton's because Bill was looking too frail or gaunt or whatever.. Sometimes things just take a while to crop up.
What PA poll? The one that shows trump leading by 5 there?
Just so you know, I'm reading this in Zapp Brannigan's voice..
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Only criticism I have is that giving Trump even a sliver of daylight is hard to understand for Democrats. His flooding photo-op is a small victory for a guy looking for anything to grasp to and it's like every high profile Democrat is on vacation right now letting Trump do his thing. If they're warning against complacency and fighting like you're 10 points behind, then they should be backing it up.
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