• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

Status
Not open for further replies.

Effect

Member
Local update:
- Evan Bayh still carpet-bombing Indiana airwaves with positive ads about all the stuff he's done. Occasional negative SuperPAC ad against him but those are probably outnumbered 5 to 1.

On this front when can we expect Hillary to start doing this in a big way? Waiting until September? Is this happening and I'm just not seeing it because of the channels I watch?

I mainly see the ad with the kids watching Trump on TV. Nothing else. I'd love to see ads from here showing all the things she's accomplished. Don't lose the ads with Trump in them showing how horrible he is but more about just her and people backing her and higher in frequency.

Maybe I need to start watching local channels here in PA to see what is airing.
 
Local update:
- Evan Bayh still carpet-bombing Indiana airwaves with positive ads about all the stuff he's done. Occasional negative SuperPAC ad against him but those are probably outnumbered 5 to 1.

- Buddy (moderate Republican who lives in Ohio) is so fed up with Trump he's voting for Hillary. He was a never-Trump person though, but nice to have his vote.

- Trump people at work are pretty quiet. Probably the most vocal pro-Trump person in office said "Trump needs to learn to keep his mouth shut, election won't need to be rigged because he brought it on himself!"

- A LiUNA! for Hillary sign appeared on the drive into work to counter act the two Trump signs. I suspect we'll see increased signage as we get closer.

these remind me of the retail anecdotal threads of yore

i love it

need more

i live in nyc so there's never anything interesting to report, just everyone smh at msnbc and whatever new shit trump's done today

i can report a lot of selfies flipping off trump's nearby building lmao

his brand is so dead.

to wit: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence...trump-properties-falling-during-campaign.html
 

Holmes

Member
Clinton's already got a lot of money in ads and is dominating the airwaves. Only if Trump starts to run ads himself do I see her team blanketing the airwaves.
 
We're still over a month from the first debate. This election is going to feel like an eternity.

That's still not a ton of time. September 26th. Trump basically has to pull back within five points minimum and then have a miraculous first debate for this thing not to be effectively over by October 1.

It's definitely not over. But he's really behind the eight-ball right now. If Clinton is ahead 7 or 8 points after the debates I don't think there's any kind of October surprise that flips the script.
 
That's still not a ton of time. September 26th. Trump basically has to pull back within five points minimum and then have a miraculous first debate for this thing not to be effectively over by October 1.

It's definitely not over. But he's really behind the eight-ball right now. If Clinton is ahead 7 or 8 points after the debates I don't think there's any kind of October surprise that flips the script.

I think the cutoff is Labor Day, to be honest. If her aggregate is 5 plus by then, I'm not sure he can bounce back. Her lead now is already bigger (on the aggregate) than Obama's was at any point after Rmoney got the nomination.
 

dramatis

Member
I showed the video with the racist outbursts from Trump supporters to a couple of my female minority friends who are voting for Trump. I was trying to explain to them why I am voting against Trump (not necessarily for Clinton as there is a lot of stuff that she's done that I can't defend). They are so religious though that they are still voting for Trump because of pro-life. They know I'm not religious at all and am vehemently pro choice, so the "well, you don't understand" counter argument comes out. I can't get through to them and they are FL voters. Sorry guys, I tried.
It was worth a shot. Single-issue voters are basically unlikely to be convinced by issues outside of their pet issue.

If Trump was not "pro-life", maybe they can be convinced to at least not vote.
 
I was thinking today how nice it was for her that the FBI did their stuff when they did.

Coming before the convention gave her a chance to catch her breath and rocket right back to where she was before. The FBI thing seems to have mostly been forgotten by now.
 

Bowdz

Member
I was thinking today how nice it was for her that the FBI did their stuff when they did.

Coming before the convention gave her a chance to catch her breath and rocket right back to where she was before. The FBI thing seems to have mostly been forgotten by now.

Agreed.

She still needs to get a better answer, but I think it is mostly baked in at this point.
 

jbug617

Banned
I was thinking today how nice it was for her that the FBI did their stuff when they did.

Coming before the convention gave her a chance to catch her breath and rocket right back to where she was before. The FBI thing seems to have mostly been forgotten by now.

Agreed.

She still needs to get a better answer, but I think it is mostly baked in at this point.

I think the only big obstacle is waiting to see what Russia and Wikileaks end up putting out.
 
I think the only big obstacle is waiting to see what Russia and Wikileaks end up putting out.

or when trump voters come back from their vacations and start responding to polls. remember: a large swath of real americans have kids that are out of school right now, thus their parents are usually out most of day, if not a week or two before school gets back. i suspect after labor day once this large cohort settles back into suburbia the polls will come back into equilibrium.
 
Those trio of MI, PA and NH polls are devastating...like holy crap Trump is done bad. Only thing thats slightly concerning is that Hillary needs to go higher than 41%, and the fact that without Johnson/Stein her lead shrinks to 6%.

But yeah this is across the board terrible for Trump. Hillary amazingly is crawling out of her unfavorables. She is tied in two states regarding that. Trump however keeps getting worse. He's not crawling out of those numbers.
 

sphagnum

Banned
I think I'm going to start using the drawbridge-up/-down terminology.

The drawbridge-up left is poo.

The problem is that this would make it seem like me and you are on the same economic team when we're not. I would consider myself "drawbridge-down left" if we were going by that criteria, but only because I want international proletarianism.
 

TheCrow

Member
Those trio of MI, PA and NH polls are devastating...like holy crap Trump is done bad. Only thing thats slightly concerning is that Hillary needs to go higher than 41%, and the fact that without Johnson/Stein her lead shrinks to 6%.

But yeah this is across the board terrible for Trump. Hillary amazingly is crawling out of her unfavorables. She is tied in two states regarding that. Trump however keeps getting worse. He's not crawling out of those numbers.

I hope her favorability settles at least at -10. Maybe then people will stop with the "they're both historically unfavorable" narrative. Especially when Trump is still around -30.
 
or when trump voters come back from their vacations and start responding to polls. remember: a large swath of real americans have kids that are out of school right now, thus their parents are usually out most of day, if not a week or two before school gets back. i suspect after labor day once this large cohort settles back into suburbia the polls will come back into equilibrium.

Why would that favor Trump voters? College-educated people travel too, you know.
 

sphagnum

Banned
for the what

B-Rock "The Islamic Shock" Hussein Superallah Obama

edit: with picture!

GopYL.gif
 

Ecotic

Member
I think the cutoff is Labor Day, to be honest. If her aggregate is 5 plus by then, I'm not sure he can bounce back. Her lead now is already bigger (on the aggregate) than Obama's was at any point after Rmoney got the nomination.

This is what gives me hope for retaking the House. Obama in 2012 came somewhat close to retaking it with a +4 national margin. I think (~)+7 nationally is where the House can flip.
 
I hope her favorability settles at least at -10. Maybe then people will stop with the "they're both historically unfavorable" narrative. Especially when Trump is still around -30.
Shes under -5 in all three. Obama's favs are highest for his term so far. I'm sure thats helping. He hasnt even started barnstorming with her. It will definitely go into the positive territory. Meanwhile Trump's getting worse and worse. Cant wait until it gets worse for him after the first debate (or lack of).
 
Shes under -5 in all three. Obama's favs are highest for his term so far. I'm sure thats helping. He hasnt even started barnstorming with her. It will definitely go into the positive territory. Meanwhile Trump's getting worse and worse. Cant wait until it gets worse for him after the first debate (or lack of).

Obama is going to be on vacation for the next couple of weeks. So he won't be campaigning until probably after the Olympics. Either way, it's all good.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Obama is going to be on vacation for the next couple of weeks. So he won't be campaigning until probably after the Olympics. Either way, it's all good.
A week ago, the New York Times reported that Obama will be taking most of October off for campaigning. This is going to be fun watching Trump get tag-team triggered from multiple directions. Even if Hillary's lead decays a bit, this'll be nice for ensuring she stays comfortably ahead.
 
Trump just posted this

http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/03/e...rom-worlds-biggest-sharia-law-education-firm/

This dude is just a racist caricature at this point

Is there a fucking article hidden there somewhere?

Screen_Shot_2016_08_04_at_11_30_24_AM.jpg


I actually sucked it up and forced myself to read this. This is the "smoking gun":

The company’s finances strictly adhere to “Sharia Finance,” which includes giving “zakat,” a religious tax of which one-eighth of the proceeds is dedicated to funding Islamic jihad.

This is one of the filthiest lines of propaganda and most massive lie that I've ever read. Zakat simply stipulates that you give 2.5% of your wealth to charity annually. I adhere to this, as well as any Muslim who adheres to the basic tenants of the religion. First time I hear that's its supposed to fund "islamic jihad". But hey, I guess that if you make that statement, you can then say that every single Muslim who gives zakat also funds terrorism, ie is a terrorist, the same dog whistle the right has been making for a while.

What an empty, despicable smear piece and farcical headline.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Hope Hicks, a spokeswoman for Trump's presidential campaign, told the AP, "Mr. Trump made a tremendous amount of money in Atlantic City during its prime. He has not been involved for seven years, with many people giving him great credit for his timing and success
Yeah, Hope. That's been the criticism of Trump all along. That he makes money for himself and fucks everyone else. His entire campaign is such a damn mess.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Fun 538 article

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-political-process-isnt-rigged-it-has-much-bigger-problems/

Here’s the truth: Washington is rigged, but not in a literal sense and not in any of the nefarious ways those loud voices are contending. Instead, the blame may lie more with voters than politicians: Our legislative process is not designed to withstand the current levels of partisan polarization in the electorate.

Voters’ vexation with standard-issue, do-nothing D.C. politicians and party elites helps explain the Trump and Sanders phenomena of 2016, and the “rigging” theories seem to arise out of that frustration and suspicion. Yet much of this anger with “insiders” is misdirected. If only our political problems were due to “rigging” elections, we could arrest someone and get on with it. But our problems are much more structural.

In 2012, my colleague Nate Silver wrote: “Why is compromise so hard in the House? Some commentators, especially liberals, attribute it to what they say is the irrationality of Republican members of Congress. But the answer could be this instead: Individual members of Congress are responding fairly rationally to their incentives.” That’s truer than ever: When narrow primary bases dominate elections, everyone loses. And politicians as a whole get blamed.


Sure, many politicians on both the right and left fan the flames of partisan hysteria and feed off their base’s fire — and they tend to get disproportionate attention. But in my experience, most candidates and officeholders don’t see the world as red versus blue: They genuinely run for office to solve problems, not to please special-interest groups or for self-glorification. Unfortunately, they increasingly find themselves trapped in a voter-driven vicious cycle that shows no sign of abating.

This has been especially true among Republican primary voters, who hold their own leaders in contempt for having fallen short of overturning President Obama’s agenda after hearing overzealous campaign promises in 2010 and 2014. So while Hillary Clinton was barely able to turn back an insurgent in the Democratic primaries, Trump was able to co-opt the entire GOP by capturing 14 million votes from a pool of 220 million eligible U.S. voters.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom