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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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Grexeno

Member
So, just to make sure I'm on the same page.

The election is in 77 days. Some places will vote earlier than that. You're behind in the polls everywhere. No swing state is even close to leaning your way except maybe Iowa and who cares about Iowa. Seriously. States that should be safe are trending away from you. You have no ground game. You're being out raised by your opponent. Half of your party is like "ew." You've had nearly as many campaign chair slash managers as wives....

And your play is to go to Texas and try to convince African Americans and Latinos that you're not a racist, after you've very publicly said very racist things about both groups. There are 77 days and your game plan is GUIS I'M NOT REALLY A RACIST OKAY?

I mean...what?
The plan is not to convince African Americans and Latinos that he isn't racist. It's to convince college-educated white voters that he isn't racist, which is a much much MUCH lower bar to clear.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Wonder if Conway will still be campaign manager come election time.
no reason to change anymore. Unless some scandals breaks out this his team to the end IMO

Although I am open to either her or bannon leaving if they aren't in sync, but the survivor would just absorb the other's position.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think this is a great job for Conway. If she wins, she's a miracle worker. If she loses, no one is going to blame her because....well....
 

HylianTom

Banned
So, just to make sure I'm on the same page.

The election is in 77 days. Some places will vote earlier than that. You're behind in the polls everywhere. No swing state is even close to leaning your way except maybe Iowa and who cares about Iowa. Seriously. States that should be safe are trending away from you. You have no ground game. You're being out raised by your opponent. Half of your party is like "ew." You've had nearly as many campaign chair slash managers as wives....

And your play is to go to Texas and try to convince African Americans and Latinos that you're not a racist, after you've very publicly said very racist things about both groups. There are 77 days and your game plan is GUIS I'M NOT REALLY A RACIST OKAY?

I mean...what?
This is why we needed him to be the nominee. Disastrous.

And SC being close makes me want to see the entire eastern seaboard covered in blue.
 
The plan is not to convince African Americans and Latinos that he isn't racist. It's to convince college-educated white voters that he isn't racist, which is a much much MUCH lower bar to clear.

I mean, ya, I know that. It's equally stupid though.

College educated whites aren't not voting for him because he's saying racist things. They have a history of voting for the racist as long as it's wink-wink-nudge-nudge. They're not voting for him because he's an idiot and he's totally and completely unqualified to be President. Trump as a threat to brown people doesn't scare or bother them. Trump as a threat to their pocketbooks and their national security is what motivates them.

And I don't mean all college educated whites, just the ones that Romney and McCain were capable of winning. I myself am a college educated white, but a liberal. so I'm fine.
 

Iolo

Member
I'm less thinking of Conway quitting than of Trump capriciously firing her when his numbers don't turn around with her new strategy. But there's probably not enough time left.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
CqYcaJwWAAAplR3.jpg

I'm not sure if this is more applicable to Trump or Gary Johnson!
 

shem935

Banned
I'm less thinking of Conway quitting than of Trump capriciously firing her when his numbers don't turn around with her new strategy. But there's probably not enough time left.

Nah he's got enough time. Lewandowski lasted like 12 months, Manafort like 2 months, if we assume an exponential decay that gives the current team like 3-4 weeks.
 
So, just to make sure I'm on the same page.

The election is in 77 days. Some places will vote earlier than that. You're behind in the polls everywhere. No swing state is even close to leaning your way except maybe Iowa and who cares about Iowa. Seriously. States that should be safe are trending away from you. You have no ground game. You're being out raised by your opponent. Half of your party is like "ew." You've had nearly as many campaign chair slash managers as wives....

And your play is to go to Texas and try to convince African Americans and Latinos that you're not a racist, after you've very publicly said very racist things about both groups. There are 77 days and your game plan is GUIS I'M NOT REALLY A RACIST OKAY?

I mean...what?

He has been pretty reactive this entire time almost. It makes sense with hiring a pollster that is also an advisor and it lines up with the campaign's current strategy. I seriously bet they at this point looked at the polls right and now making a plan to fix it. The problem is just that Conway is an advisor and a pollster, not a manager. Trying to fix this mess is going to a undertaking. Not only she has to keep Trump from exploding, she has to figure out how to fix his numbers, and get a message that help with that, plus dealing with the fact they aren't using much funds. We are now seeing the beginnings of that I think, but I don't believe it is going to work and I it is going to be really easy for the Democrats to counter whatever he says. Making him seem less of a racist is only part of the problem they don't have less than 80 days (in most states) to fix that.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
He has been pretty reactive this entire time almost. It makes sense with hiring a pollster that is also an advisor and it lines up with the campaign's current strategy. I seriously bet they at this point looked at the polls right and now making a plan to fix it. The problem is just that Conway is an advisor and a pollster, not a manager. Trying to fix this mess is going to a undertaking. Not only she has to keep Trump from exploding, she has to figure out how to fix his numbers, and get a message that help with that, plus dealing with the fact they aren't using much funds. We are now seeing the beginnings of that I think, but I don't believe it is going to work and I it is going to be really easy for the Democrats to counter whatever he says. Making him seem less of a racist is only part of the problem they don't have less than 80 days (in most states) to fix that.
Also identifying the weakness, and correcting it are two entirely different things.
 
Apparently Cher is going to be on Lawrence O'Donnell show in a sec.

Also I think the thing I want most right now is for there to be a backlash on immigration against Trump from the right and for Hannity to get caught up in it.
 
Conway seems competent enough, but there's just nothing to work with. It's a big victory for her career if she can even get Trump just a hair past his current (seemingly very hard) 40% ceiling.
 
He has been pretty reactive this entire time almost. It makes sense with hiring a pollster that is also an advisor and it lines up with the campaign's current strategy. I seriously bet they at this point looked at the polls right and now making a plan to fix it. The problem is just that Conway is an advisor and a pollster, not a manager. Trying to fix this mess is going to a undertaking. Not only she has to keep Trump from exploding, she has to figure out how to fix his numbers, and get a message that help with that, plus dealing with the fact they aren't using much funds. We are now seeing the beginnings of that I think, but I don't believe it is going to work and I it is going to be really easy for the Democrats to counter whatever he says. Making him seem less of a racist is only part of the problem they don't have less than 80 days (in most states) to fix that.

This is all very true. They have been reacting the entire time. So, what should they do?

Best I can come up with is stop the stupid ass strategies of going to safe republican states. Do not go to Texas. Do not go to Oregon. Do not go to Mississippi. Cut his stump/prompter speech to a tight 30 minutes or so. Use the same speech basically every time. Make Trump memorize if you have to. Limit the surrogates speaking to the network. Kellyanne can go on, but that's about it. Drop this minority outreach thing. If it's to win AA/Latino voters it won't work. If it's to win college educated whites....it won't work. Let it go. Bigly.

Double down on the immigration shit you've already spewed. This is, literally, the only consistent policy position you have in the entire campaign. Don't try and flip-flop-flip on it. Just go with what you've said. Don't waste money trying to defend anywhere, because if you lose Georgia, Missouri, or South Carolina you're fucked anyway.

Instead, throw as much money as you can into voter registration drives in Ohio, Penn, Northern Florida (maybe Tampa and the west coast of the state) and NC. Try and register as many white people as you can, and continue on your spiel that "things are rigged against you" Run ads if you want, but double (or triple down) on the argument that you want to bring back jobs.

This isn't going to work. You're still going to lose, but it's better than what they're doing now.
 

Slacker

Member
Facebook ad says if I donate 3 bucks I'm entered in to win a chance to have dinner with Eric Trump. I assume that's meant to be an incentive.
 

watershed

Banned
Ok, the pivot is over. Trump is back to being Trump. No change to his language or policies. Nothing will change for his numbers either.
 
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten 14m14 minutes ago
Take every state average of polls since the convention, weight by population, & Clinton leads by 5.1. Obama won same group by 1.5. #bigswing
 
This is all very true. They have been reacting the entire time. So, what should they do?

Best I can come up with is stop the stupid ass strategies of going to safe republican states. Do not go to Texas. Do not go to Oregon. Do not go to Mississippi. Cut his stump/prompter speech to a tight 30 minutes or so. Use the same speech basically every time. Make Trump memorize if you have to. Limit the surrogates speaking to the network. Kellyanne can go on, but that's about it. Drop this minority outreach thing. If it's to win AA/Latino voters it won't work. If it's to win college educated whites....it won't work. Let it go. Bigly.

Double down on the immigration shit you've already spewed. This is, literally, the only consistent policy position you have in the entire campaign. Don't try and flip-flop-flip on it. Just go with what you've said. Don't waste money trying to defend anywhere, because if you lose Georgia, Missouri, or South Carolina you're fucked anyway.

Instead, throw as much money as you can into voter registration drives in Ohio, Penn, Northern Florida (maybe Tampa and the west coast of the state) and NC. Try and register as many white people as you can, and continue on your spiel that "things are rigged against you" Run ads if you want, but double (or triple down) on the argument that you want to bring back jobs.

This isn't going to work. You're still going to lose, but it's better than what they're doing now.

Making him seem not like a racist is the best thing they can do, doubling down is basically the status quo which is what is making him lose so badly. The issue is that I do not think the campaign is going to be effective at it and it that doesn't include the Hillary countering them and doing their own thing. It is a very likely chance that they'll be partially successfully with the strategy as in tightening the polls slightly. But there's a big chance that it'll effectively not do anything at all. If the campaign can't turn this around within about a month or so he lost( I think he already lost anyway).
 

Hopfrog

Member
I thought I must be dreaming, but there are people in the Army slide thread acting like it is not a problem and "technically correct" that she be included with the rest of those on the slide.

Let's just set aside the fact that she is included in a group of people actually charged with crimes related to national security and two ACTUAL murderers.
 
I don't even think the emails will be a particularly big part of the debates. It's hard to remember with how awful the rhetoric has become but they are mostly policy based.

Trump might throw the answer out there when it comes to security but he won't have an audience cheering him on and if that's all he has he will quickly fall apart.
 
This is all very true. They have been reacting the entire time. So, what should they do?

Best I can come up with is stop the stupid ass strategies of going to safe republican states. Do not go to Texas. Do not go to Oregon. Do not go to Mississippi. Cut his stump/prompter speech to a tight 30 minutes or so. Use the same speech basically every time. Make Trump memorize if you have to. Limit the surrogates speaking to the network. Kellyanne can go on, but that's about it. Drop this minority outreach thing. If it's to win AA/Latino voters it won't work. If it's to win college educated whites....it won't work. Let it go. Bigly.

Double down on the immigration shit you've already spewed. This is, literally, the only consistent policy position you have in the entire campaign. Don't try and flip-flop-flip on it. Just go with what you've said. Don't waste money trying to defend anywhere, because if you lose Georgia, Missouri, or South Carolina you're fucked anyway.

Instead, throw as much money as you can into voter registration drives in Ohio, Penn, Northern Florida (maybe Tampa and the west coast of the state) and NC. Try and register as many white people as you can, and continue on your spiel that "things are rigged against you" Run ads if you want, but double (or triple down) on the argument that you want to bring back jobs.

This isn't going to work. You're still going to lose, but it's better than what they're doing now.

This is all well and good... from the perspective of Republican leadership. All of this would help maintain the down-ticket as best you can (rile up the base and maybe hold those seats). But it's not good for Trump himself.

Any discussion of "the Trump campaign" has to be prefaced with whether you're talking about good for the man himself or the GOP leaders that are pushing him. Trump, I think, has finally realized that he's screwed. He's going down with people he likes, and he's not going to put in a shit ton of work at the end of the line since he probably won't win anyway. He knows that it'll be a blowout, and so he'd rather take it easy.

Normally this wouldn't happen since you (if you're party leadership) would hope that the head of your ticket actually cares about the party you're in charge of.* Trump doesn't care about that at all. After November, he can literally punch Pubis in the face on national television and walk away. He's not a politician and he doesn't run in these circles. It'd be like me going to a lumberjack convention; I don't need any of those connections, so I can do whatever I want there. Trump doesn't have to care about long-term effects on the party after he loses; it's just not his problem.

*As an aside, this would've been the scariest part of a Sanders run for me since I live in a red state. Good organization from national Dems is the only thing that even vaguely helps out in places like this, and when you've got someone heading the ticket who literally doesn't give a shit about stuff like long-term party success.
 

royalan

Member
OMG

Watching MSNBC

I am so excited for Hillary's speech on Thursday.

If she nails this, she could successfully bring the Alt-Right to national attention, define them as racist, and tie them to Trump and every Republican who supports him.

This could be big.
 
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