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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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B

Black Mamba

Member
Trump is only +2 among white people in that poll.

PLUS TWO.

I know it's probably off but I mean...

Trump is definitely down by quite a bit right now. This really does have the potential of becoming a MAJOR wave election thanks to him.

And now with the news Melania might not even have immigrated legally. holy shit.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
RustyNails said:
Looks like the bounce is closer to a double digit than earlier predicted. Only need NBC/WSJ poll to confirm that.
Click to expand...

Well, I'd argue that the bounce is probably 6-8 points from the convention.

But that depends how you want to define "convention bounce."

Do we count Trump's spat with the Khans as part of the convention?

I think what we're seeing is a convention bounce + a post-convention Trump meltdown leading to further poll erosion. Which is actually more important because it's better than a traditional bounce.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Trump is only +2 among white people in that poll.

PLUS TWO.

I know it's probably off but I mean...

Trump is definitely down by quite a bit right now. This really does have the potential of becoming a MAJOR wave election thanks to him.

And now with the news Melania might not even have immigrated legally. holy shit.
Click to expand...

I think +2 is probably way too generous, but this is like the third or fourth national poll that's had the white vote under double digits, I believe. He's getting the white, non-college educated (male) vote. BUt that's it.
 
T

TopDreg

Member
Obama's comments on Zika make me so angry at the Republican congress for bunching Zika bills with a ton of irrelevant other things. Like, would it really piss off their voting base if they just voted a Zika bill in? It's that bad for their image?
 
J

jiggle

Member
eBay Huckster said:
McClatchy-Marist

Clinton 48 (42)
Trump 33 (39)

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article93763582.html
Click to expand...


tumblr_llefn6TC8Z1qbs5kvo1_r1_500.gif


So looks like 40% is no longer trump's floor in polls
Can he go below 30%
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Teggy said:
Taniel
Taniel‏ @Taniel

If CO & VA off, main Trump paths:
1—lose PA but sweep NV/IA/NH/OH/NC/FL (throws it to GOP House)
2—win PA & "only" need OH/FL/NC among above


So basically, if polling is stable for Hillary we'll be able to wait for PA to be called an then go to bed.
Click to expand...

What were the states to watch in recent presidential elections?

2000: FL
2004: ?
2008: OH
2012: ?
2016: PA (potentially)
 
D

DasRaven

Member
And we're expecting good unemployment news tomorrow from July.

Pretty soon, that "terrible" 1.2 GDP growth number will be another missed opportunity for the GOP nominee.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Well, since my thread isnt getting much traction I thought I'd post it here since I think a lot more people should see it.

In 1943, Marion Konishi Takehara graduated as the valedictorian of Amache Senior High School, in Colorado. Amache was an internment camp for Japanese Americans that were forced to relocate from their Pacific Coast homes following the attack on Pearl Harbor and Executive Order 9066.

Last month, at 91 years old, she returned to Amache for the first time since she was a teenager. As a part of the annual Amache Pilgrimage, Marion gave her commencement speech for a second time.

Written while living as an incarcerated teenager, Marion’s words epitomize faith in the human spirit. Faith such as this drowns out those who promote fear and insecurity and instead fosters the progress and positivity that lies ahead.
Click to expand...

https://medium.com/@meraiko/japanes...ope-in-america-during-bfb1bd6f8db5#.skwb7h97r

read the speech at the link

I'll admit, I cried.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
If Trump somehow pulls off a sub 40 number in the election...

I don't see how the Dems don't win pretty much every contested Senate seat and maybe 1 or 2 surprises and then win a massive number of House seats.

I don't think split ticketsv are as likely as some may think. You're going to see a lot of moderate Republicans/leaners stay home on election night.

Turnout will be down among them and Hillary will walk in with maybe as maybe House members as Obama did...

But until we're close I'm not going to start to get actually excited about that. Just looking at the hypothetical.
 
P

Piecake

Member
At a North Carolina town hall Thursday, among the toughest questions Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence faced came from an 11-year-old boy.

“I’ve noticed you’ve been softening up on Trump’s words and policies. Is this going to be your role in the administration?” the boy asked Pence as the crowd erupted in laughter
Click to expand...

Young boy to Pence: Are you Trump's apologist?


Don't know if this was already posted before, but lol!
 
C

CCS

Banned
That Georgia news...

If we win there, I'm naming my firstborn Hillary. Or making my brother name his Hillary. Whichever.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
TopDreg said:
Obama's comments on Zika make me so angry at the Republican congress for bunching Zika bills with a ton of irrelevant other things. Like, would it really piss off their voting base if they just voted a Zika bill in? It's that bad for their image?
Click to expand...
I got news for you. Its Obama and the democrats who torpedoed the bill! Read this oped by Paul Ryan in USA Today

Drop the politics, put health first
Paul Ryan said:
Unfortunately, when this plan went to the Senate for a vote, Democrats derailed it. This was despite months of calling for action, and even voting in favor of that exact funding level just weeks prior. They blocked our plan not once, but twice — a blatant ploy in an election year. Because of their actions, this funding is in limbo. It shouldn’t be.

For its part, the White House turns a blind eye to all this. It demands more funding while sitting on unspent funds. It calls for more aggressive mosquito control while Senate Democrats block that authority. It points fingers at Republicans, knowing full well that Senate Democrats are being obstructionist.
Those are the facts. We need the White House and Senate Democrats to drop politics and put the public’s health first. We hope for a change of heart, and soon.
Click to expand...
 
A

avaya

Member
The Lamonster said:
What were the states to watch in recent presidential elections?

2000: FL
2004: ?
2008: OH
2012: ?
2016: PA (potentially)
Click to expand...

There is no state to watch. It's a 285 EV lock-out for the Dem candidate, VA joins the Blue Wall. Reality is clear that Presidential elections are solely about Democrat GOTV efforts, the Republican party is now irrelevant.

There is only a watch for how much over 332 EV will she get. I think she will be bounded at 394 EV tops. Range EV from 332 - 394

332 Obama 12
+15 North Carolina
+11 Arizona
+1 Omaha
+ 16 Georgia
+ 10 Missouri
+ 6 Utah
+ 3 Montana
= 394 EV top-end
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Guys.

If the polling is like this to an extent where Hillary is up 6-14 points a week or two after labor day...

it's going to be time to start donating to Dems all around the country, not Hillary. I'll spend some money to guarantee some extra senate seats and definitely some House seats.

Darrell Issa is going to lose, people. It's going to happen. Republicans in California are staying home on election day.

In 2 weeks, someone here (not me) needs to make a list of House races that will become up for grabs (that aren't right now).
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Box of Kittens said:
The sad part was that it was the second best performance by a Democratic presidential candidate in the five elections between 1972 and 1988 and the gap between second and third is significant.
Click to expand...

Yeah man but then the Dems became a party of neo-liberal, corporatist sellouts. So whose the real loser here?
 
A

avaya

Member
Black Mamba said:
Guys.

If the polling is like this to an extent where Hillary is up 6-14 points a week or two after labor day...

it's going to be time to start donating to Dems all around the country, not Hillary. I'll spend some money to guarantee some extra senate seats and definitely some House seats.

Darrell Issa is going to lose, people. It's going to happen. Republicans in California are staying home on election day.

In 2 weeks, someone here (not me) needs to make a list of House races that will become up for grabs (that aren't right now).
Click to expand...

More money should also be spent to accelerate voter registration and sign up if that's still possible in a bid to catalyse the ongoing process of Red states turning blue. I want purple Texas 2024. True Blue Texas 2032.
 
N

nature boy

Member
In all seriousness, the loser dynamic is starting to kick in for Trump.

But that puts pressure on the Clinton campaign to not fuck it up.
 
B

BrokenFiction

Member
Black Mamba said:
Guys.

If the polling is like this to an extent where Hillary is up 6-14 points a week or two after labor day...

it's going to be time to start donating to Dems all around the country, not Hillary. I'll spend some money to guarantee some extra senate seats and definitely some House seats.

Darrell Issa is going to lose, people. It's going to happen. Republicans in California are staying home on election day.

In 2 weeks, someone here (not me) needs to make a list of House races that will become up for grabs (that aren't right now).
Click to expand...

It's funny you say that. On MTP Daily yesterday they said if it's still polling high for Hillary like that after Labor Day, the race is over at that point.

http://www.msnbc.com/mtp-daily/watch/trump-allies-plot-intervention-737651779547
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
Paches said:
I mean, he kind of danced around and hinted at it...could be the case.
Click to expand...

Yea that took me by surprise. Essentially just said that if you had confidential briefings you shouldn't talk about what you saw. I'm sure someone in the media will pick up on that, and start trying to pester Trump about it.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Guys.

If the polling is like this to an extent where Hillary is up 6-14 points a week or two after labor day...

it's going to be time to start donating to Dems all around the country, not Hillary. I'll spend some money to guarantee some extra senate seats and definitely some House seats.

Darrell Issa is going to lose, people. It's going to happen. Republicans in California are staying home on election day.

In 2 weeks, someone here (not me) needs to make a list of House races that will become up for grabs (that aren't right now).
Click to expand...

That feels like my job.
 
E

Emarv

Member
avaya said:
More money should also be spent to accelerate voter registration and sign up if that's still possible in a bid to catalyse the ongoing process of Red states turning blue. I want purple Texas 2024. True Blue Texas 2032.
Click to expand...
Texas will be purple within 10 years. I have faith!
 
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