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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
avaya said:
There is no state to watch. It's a 285 EV lock-out for the Dem candidate, VA joins the Blue Wall. Reality is clear that Presidential elections are solely about Democrat GOTV efforts, the Republican party is now irrelevant.

There is only a watch for how much over 332 EV will she get. I think she will be bounded at 394 EV tops. Range EV from 332 - 394

332 Obama 12
+15 North Carolina
+11 Arizona
+1 Omaha
+ 16 Georgia
+ 10 Missouri
+ 6 Utah
+ 3 Montana
= 394 EV top-end
Click to expand...

If we're in this blowout scenario I cannot imagine how she doesn't win Indiana.
 
M

mo60

Member
We really need some new state level polls in some states like SC, AK,ND, SD and etc to see if the shift towards a potential landslide for Hilary in the last week or so has changed the race in any of those states now.
 
U

User 85168

Banned
What a trash question lol

"Can you promise the American people a fair election this November?"

1. Seriously?

2. Obama promising a fair election is gonna do nothing to Trump & Co.'s fearmongering.
 
G

GoldenEye 007

Member
Goddamn Obama going in. Talking about never hearing someone complaining about cheating before the game is over or even before it has been played.
 
M

mo60

Member
Brawndo Addict said:
If we're in this blowout scenario I cannot imagine how she doesn't win Indiana.
Click to expand...

She will. Obama barely won it when he won the 2008 election by like 7.2%. She just needs to make sure turnout is really high in some of the dem favoured college towns in that state.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
The way Obama attacks someone and always just smirks and laughs is a gift. He has this way of attacking someone without crossing the line. He says just enough, and then backs off .
 
B

bangbang i'm a timpani

Banned
Pack it away folks, in reality Donald Trump is actually leading by +0.9%

https://www.longroom.com/polls/


In a summary by LongRoom Unbiased polls it shows Donald J. Trump leading his rival Hillary Clinton by 0.9% as of 8/01.

After the rocky week that Trump was having with the entire Khan family controversy it seems that of the 6 polls conducted this week by LongRoom, USC-Daybreak, YouGov, CBS, CNN, and Morning Consult Trump holds a lead in 4 of them.

For clarification, LongRoom conducts their polls a bit differently than traditional polling places, they compensate for the over sampling of Democrats and Republicans and use accurate representations of area demographics to skew the results in a more unbiased manner. LongRoom has a long history of being fairly accurate with polls from past elections, you can read up on their full methodology including sources for the demographics here. It is obviously best to take these new poll results with a grain of salt.

BIAS

LongRoom Unbiased – Trump +0.5%
USC-Daybreak – Trump +0.7%
YouGov / Economist – Trump +2.4%
CBS – Clinton +2.7%
CNN – Clinton +1.9%
Morning Consult – Trump +0.9%

LongRoom is also giving the average polling bias to Hillary Clinton with 4.2% being biased in favor of Clinton. It is easy to see how the polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats given the number of Democrats sampled in a majority of these polls is much larger than the number of Republicans.
Click to expand...
 
U

User 463088

Banned
One of the best things about this week is that the stink of a loser is sinking in on Trump. His strategy requires that he be up in the polls. He is not. No one thinks he is. All he has is the "inevitable winning" meme. The numbers don't back that up, and his crying of "rigged," again, reinforces that he's losing.

It would be hell to any campaign, but when it's ALL you have, it's a fucking death sentence.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
!

@FrankLuntz:
Real talk: Trump is cratering. 📉

He needs to overhaul his general-election strategy if he wants to have any hope of winning in 95 days.
Click to expand...

====

We have Unbiased polls now?! This election has everything!
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
mo60 said:
We really need some new state level polls in some states like SC, AK,ND, SD and etc to see if the shift towards a potential landslide for Hilary in the last week or so has changed the race in any of those states now.
Click to expand...

Polling is going to be weird in the non-contested states. You're going to see extremely wild numbers accounting for Trump's narrow-but very strong-appeal with certain demographics.
Where he's not popular he is going to be SUPER unpopular (see that near-apocalyptic Philly suburb number from earlier today). Homogeneous populations one way or another are going to have absurdly polar polling.
 
T

TS-08

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
I think we're at a point now where Hillary might gain support due to a band wagon effect and Trump might lose support due to it being hopeless.
Click to expand...

It's going to be interesting to see what the Republicans do as time goes on. When do they cut their losses? When do we see a mass movement of Republican campaigning on an "I'm not Trump" message? Too early for that now, but something to keep an eye on.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
univariate said:
It's so good. He always comes off as the bigger guy.
Click to expand...

It's just unreal how good he is. Not surprising watching him the last 8 years. It must be nice for him to finally get back at the GOP after 8 years of constant bullshit from them. Can't wait until October. Read something a while back that said Obama has cleared his schedule in October to campaign everyday. It's going to be glorious when he unleashes 8 years of bullshit over the course of a month.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Box of Kittens said:
Yes. By one measure, MS is the least elastic state in the nation and SC is third least.
Click to expand...
Whites in the Deep South vote pretty much unanimously Republican and African-Americans vote unanimously Democratic with very little cross-over. Only way Dems can take Mississippi (the state with the highest African-American % in the country) is if AA turnout is high and white turnout is low + some crossover to Johnson. The reason why VA, NC and soon GA are more competitive is because they are emerging economies, thus more attractive to educated voters out of state (see NoVA or the NC research triangle).
 
C

CCS

Banned
Just seen why Orlando Bloom is trending :O

If you guys can keep these poll numbers up then truly, God Bless America.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
BTW, if Hillary is up 7 in the aggregate, which I think she's now up at least 7...

with 3% MoE...

she's 99% to win.

Basically, if the election were held tomorrow and she lost, then someone could start thinking about fraud legitimately.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
CCS said:
Just seen why Orlando Bloom is trending :O

If you guys can keep these poll numbers up then truly, God Bless America.
Click to expand...

It's going to take a lot of hard work, but I think we can keep these polls up. Definitely. Just gotta work our asses off really hard, and we're going to be feeling really good in November.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
I wonder how these reporters are even going to imagine asking these kinds of questions to Donald Trump of all fucking people. I don't even think they realize what they have when they harp over virtual non-stories like cash payments. Imagine the responses you get from President Trump on these nuanced questions, unbelievable.
 
M

mo60

Member
As long as Hilary's campaign continues to not make any major mistakes the potential for a bandwagon effect to occur exists. I can see people starting to support her more and more as it looks like she's going to win this election like what happened last year in the federal election in Canada.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
jiggle said:
Fuck
Is dean chambers back!??
Click to expand...

qsrBVQv.jpg
 
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