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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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U

User 463088

Banned
That was a good answer on why Trump still has support if he's a racist asshole.'

Like, that was a really good answer on that. We can reject the bluster and bullying, but, at the same time, let's acknowledge the pain that leads people to that path (ie economic disenfranchisement.) Obviously, that's not all of it, but that's a good way to frame it.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
We shouldn't be quick to say Jill won't get at least 5 percent. Lets wait until the CNN town hall. And she might receive a post-convention bounce.

I am worried about the effects of Chafee endorsing Hillary. That might erase most of Jill's gains.
 
T

Trouble

Banned
BrokenFiction said:
Diamond Joe keeps winning.

(((Scott Smith))) ‏@ourmaninchicago 3h3 hours ago

Biden with some lead-by-example advice for bosses everywhere.
(From this month's @esquire)
Click to expand...

Goddamn I love Joe. He's like the anti-Cheney. He's been the angel on Obama's shoulder, whereas Cheney was the devil on Bush's.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Polls tend to overstate third party support. There weren't that many polls including Johnson and Stein in 2012, but those that did mostly showed Johnson getting 3-4% (he got just under 1%) and Stein getting 1-3% (she got just over 1/3 of a percent).
 
H

hawk2025

Member
kingkitty said:
We shouldn't be quick to say Jill won't get at least 5 percent. Lets wait until the CNN town hall. And she might receive a post-convention bounce.

I am worried about the effects of Chafee endorsing Hillary. That might erase most of Jill's gains.
Click to expand...

I expect her town hall bounce to be as big as her VP announcement bounce.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
i wouldn't exactly rule out johnson getting a more outsized portion of the vote than is usual

but stein is going to be extremely lucky to get half a percent
 
P

pigeon

Banned
adam387 said:
That was a good answer on why Trump still has support if he's a racist asshole.'

Like, that was a really good answer on that. We can reject the bluster and bullying, but, at the same time, let's acknowledge the pain that leads people to that path (ie economic disenfranchisement.) Obviously, that's not all of it, but that's a good way to frame it.
Click to expand...

I think this is a fiction spread by people who don't want to acknowledge that America was literally founded on racism and people loved it so much they tried to found a second country out of America because they were afraid their freedom of racism was going to be restricted. Like, this theory imagines that American white nationalism sprang up sui generis in the last eight years rather than being so powerful that it literally took over half the country 150 years ago.

I have more on this but I'm on my phone.

However I understand why Hillary doesn't necessarily want to mount that argument right now. I can see Cybit's pivot towards whiteness happening, though.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
I actually came to the thread to note that Hillary is giving a presser where she says she already has 60 vote commitments in the Senate for immigration reform.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
pigeon said:
I actually came to the thread to note that Hillary is giving a presser where she says she already has 60 vote commitments in the Senate for immigration reform.
Click to expand...

The Senate isn't the problem though. There were enough votes in the House to pass the 2013 bill, but Boehner didn't want to bring it up for a vote.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
She just stepped on Trump's coverage for Friday. Coverage of her so far seems sensible and sober, and it invites immediate comparison to Trump and his way of doing things. Good timing.
 
T

TheCrow

Member
Guess I got something to watch during lunch. I assume CNN aired it? I really wish MSNBC allowed you to scroll the timeline on the web stream. I keep missing out on all the times where they destroy trump surrogates.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Message here is Hillary is finally willing to give a presser because the press hates her way less than Donald Trump.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
pigeon said:
I think this is a fiction spread by people who don't want to acknowledge that America was literally founded on racism and people loved it so much they tried to found a second country out of America because they were afraid their freedom of racism was going to be restricted. Like, this theory imagines that American white nationalism sprang up sui generis in the last eight years rather than being so powerful that it literally took over half the country 150 years ago.

I have more on this but I'm on my phone.

However I understand why Hillary doesn't necessarily want to mount that argument right now. I can see Cybit's pivot towards whiteness happening, though.
Click to expand...

I mean, I get what you're saying. But, at the same time, there's something to be said for not alienating people...even if they deserve it. Like, yes, if you are supporting Trump you're either for white nationalism or you're ambivalent towards it. Neither is morally acceptable, and both deserve condemnation. And, ya, these people should be called out on it.

But, at the same time, I think there's something to be said for taking a tactful, thoughtful approach in explaining to these people why it's not okay to blame "the other" for their problem. Immediately throwing words like racist/sexist/homophobic/bigot no matter how well they earned them, no matter how accurate they are, no matter how much they deserve them...is not the way to win an election.

Should it be the way? ABSOLUTELY. Do I find it uncomfortable that we have to toe this line? ABSOLUTELY.

But, at the end of the day, I want to win. I think acknowledging people's pain (when it's actual pain and not just bigotry) and explaining to them how "Yes, you have fallen through the cracks. But blaming women, Muslims, and Immigrants is NOT the way to solve it" is a preferable path to saying "You feel this way? You're a white nationalist. Go away."
 
B

BrokenFiction

Member
pigeon said:
Message here is Hillary is finally willing to give a presser because the press hates her way less than Donald Trump.
Click to expand...

While I want the full disclosure from Hill, it's almost hard to blame her as shitty as the press has been over the last 40 years (re: sexism video)
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Nazgul_Hunter said:
Hillary's kinda killing it in this press conference. Finally a good answer on the email stuff and a great answer on her low trust #s
Click to expand...
Eh, she was still relying on legalese and doublespeak while giving an answer that went on for far too long. All she needs to say is that at the time she made the public statements, what she said was what she thought was true. Once the FBI interviewed her, she had by then discovered what she previously thought was incorrect and was truthful about that with the FBI. She made a mistake, she's sorry, and it will never happen again.

The end.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Link said:
Eh, she was still relying on legalese and doublespeak while giving an answer that went on for far too long. All she needs to say is that at the time she made the public statements, what she said was what she thought was true. Once the FBI interviewed her, she had by then discovered what she previously thought was incorrect and was truthful about that with the FBI. She made a mistake, she's sorry, and it will never happen again.

The end.
Click to expand...

No. You do not admit to making a mistake on this.

What you do is you say you believe that the emails were marked classified erroneously and/or retroactively. That you stand by what you said: That to the best of your knowledge you did not send classified information via email.

This is one of those times where admitting to being wrong is probably more damaging than legalese.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
adam387 said:
No. You do not admit to making a mistake on this.

What you do is you say you believe that the emails were marked classified erroneously and/or retroactively. That you stand by what you said: That to the best of your knowledge you did not send classified information via email.

This is one of those times where admitting to being wrong is probably more damaging than legalese.
Click to expand...
The mistake being the private server.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Maxim726X said:
Question: I know that Johnson needs 15% of the polls in order to get on the debate stage... But which polls?
Click to expand...

Does the CPD Conduct its own Polling when Applying the Criteria? No. In each election cycle since 2000, CPD has retained Dr. Frank Newport, Editor-in-Chief of Gallup, to assist it in selecting the five national public opinion polls to be used in applying the criteria. Dr. Newport's recommendations have been based on his professional judgment concerning the most suitable polls. In making his recommendations, he has considered the quality of the methodology the polling organizations employed, the size of the sample population polled, the reputation of the polling organizations, and the frequency of the polling conducted. In 2012, the polls relied upon were: ABC News/The Washington Post, NBC News/The Wall Street Journal, CBS News/The New York Times, Fox News and Gallup.

http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=overview
 
H

hawk2025

Member
P

plagiarize

Banned
adam387 said:
No. You do not admit to making a mistake on this.

What you do is you say you believe that the emails were marked classified erroneously and/or retroactively. That you stand by what you said: That to the best of your knowledge you did not send classified information via email.

This is one of those times where admitting to being wrong is probably more damaging than legalese.
Click to expand...

Yeah. This is a good answer on this.

Crisis averted!
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
nature boy said:
Does the CPD Conduct its own Polling when Applying the Criteria? No. In each election cycle since 2000, CPD has retained Dr. Frank Newport, Editor-in-Chief of Gallup, to assist it in selecting the five national public opinion polls to be used in applying the criteria. Dr. Newport's recommendations have been based on his professional judgment concerning the most suitable polls. In making his recommendations, he has considered the quality of the methodology the polling organizations employed, the size of the sample population polled, the reputation of the polling organizations, and the frequency of the polling conducted. In 2012, the polls relied upon were: ABC News/The Washington Post, NBC News/The Wall Street Journal, CBS News/The New York Times, Fox News and Gallup.

http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=overview
Click to expand...

Interesting. Thanks for the information.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
So, despite the natural expectation that Hillary's current lead should subside, I am having a really hard time seeing how the GOP avoids catastrophe.

tele-Trump can never stick around for more than a week, and the public has seen to much of his shit for too long. Everyone knows how to get him to spiral, but with bad poll numbers and Republicans abandoning him, Trump will spiral even with prodding from attack ads and Twitter bait.

The only way the GOP avoids civil war is for Trump to display a level of discipline that no one has any reason to believe he possesses, and he finds a way to climb in the polls to safer ground while also not being insane. I have no idea how that is supposed to happen. Even if he picks up a dead cat bounce, he is starting down the surrogate dream team, a financial deficit, a media no longer willing to play along, and a barely tolerant party. I can't imagine that he can pull of a Romney debate reset, though I guess anything is possible.

I'll be fascinated to see what his campaign does at this point. If it's anything other than "be insane" or "be boring" I'll be pretty impressed.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
The Olympics start today, how much of a distraction are they from the election?

I'm thinking that, barring some really awful Clinton controversy, only Trump's negative antics will make news in the coming two weeks, probably cementing Clinton's lead in the polls (it will probably drop somewhat).
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
adam387 said:
Oh, she's said that the private server was a mistake many, many times. She did it in the Fox News interview this week. She did it again today.
Click to expand...
No, I know. Just saying that should definitely be part of the explanation.
 
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