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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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So if the current system of checks and balances completely fails to protect us from an event like Donald Trump and a systematic attack of rights by the GOP, how do I not become disenfranchised with our government and political system entirely?

Genuinely asking because the fact that this election has set us back from major progress probably for at least the next decade or two of my life has me kind of depressed that there's nothing we can do about it. Like if Trump can get a majority conservative supreme court how do I not just throw my hands up in the air and give up when there's nothing we can do about that until they die off?
 
So if the current system of checks and balances completely fails to protect us from an event like Donald Trump and a systematic attack of rights by the GOP, how do I not become disenfranchised with our government and political system entirely?

Genuinely asking because the fact that this election has set us back from major progress probably for at least the next decade or two of my life has me kind of depressed that there's nothing we can do about it. Like if Trump can get a majority conservative supreme court how do I not just throw my hands up in the air and give up when there's nothing we can do about that until they die off?

Since there are no checks and balances anymore, if we win big, there will be nothing to stop us.
 
So if the current system of checks and balances completely fails to protect us from an event like Donald Trump and a systematic attack of rights by the GOP, how do I not become disenfranchised with our government and political system entirely?

Genuinely asking because the fact that this election has set us back from major progress probably for at least the next decade or two of my life has me kind of depressed that there's nothing we can do about it. Like if Trump can get a majority conservative supreme court how do I not just throw my hands up in the air and give up when there's nothing we can do about that until they die off?

This country has been through some of the darkest times, ever, and survived every time. We'll recover, we always do.
 
I'd say North Carolina should probably be regarded as a secondary target in the immediate future. Worth investing resources in, but not to be counted on as part of the main path to victory.

Also, looking at the numbers, it's amazing that the margins in Ohio and Texas were so similar.
 
I'd say North Carolina should probably be regarded as a secondary target in the immediate future. Worth investing resources in, but not to be counted on as part of the main path to victory.

Also, looking at the numbers, it's amazing that the margins in Ohio and Texas were so similar.

Exactly. That's also why I would urge caution in, say, Georgia is going to be a Democratic pickup in 2020 (though Georgia did has a larger % of black voters than North Carolina).

The easiest way to get to 270 would be 2016 + Florida + Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin
 
Arizona + 2 Rust Belt states also might not be a bad idea, but I think that depends on the nominee. If it's a Brown/Klobuchar ticket Arizona probably shouldn't be a huge battleground but if Harris or CCM is the nominee they should probably make a serious play for it.
 
Trump literally picked Tillerson because he thinks Tillerson will "Take the Oil."



https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/821547926577184768

"Taking the Oil" is a war crime.

Daily horrifying reminder that "taking the oil" isn't even the worst war crime that Donald "kill their wives and children" Trump wants to engage in.

Not that the American people ever really cared about civilian casualties in the first place but still.
 
Arizona + 2 Rust Belt states also might not be a bad idea, but I think that depends on the nominee. If it's a Brown/Klobuchar ticket Arizona probably shouldn't be a huge battleground but if Harris or CCM is the nominee they should probably make a serious play for it.

To me, Arizona has a higher chance of going blue in 2020 than North Carolina or Georgia. Especially if Harris or CCM are the nominees.
 

sphagnum

Banned
So if the current system of checks and balances completely fails to protect us from an event like Donald Trump and a systematic attack of rights by the GOP, how do I not become disenfranchised with our government and political system entirely?

Genuinely asking because the fact that this election has set us back from major progress probably for at least the next decade or two of my life has me kind of depressed that there's nothing we can do about it. Like if Trump can get a majority conservative supreme court how do I not just throw my hands up in the air and give up when there's nothing we can do about that until they die off?

You should feel disenfranchised. The system is rotten and broken.

Build something better.
 
Actually this year but flip AZ and FL and we get a narrow win. Giving up on the Rust Belt is still a stupid idea but I think AZ/FL/WI/PA/MI seem like the five states we try to win, plus making sure MN and NH hold.
 
ME-AL + ME-1 + VT + MA + RI + CT + NY + NJ + DE + MD + VA + NC + FL + IL + CO + NM + AZ + NV + CA + OR + WA = 273

Using the RCP estimates:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...shed_light_on_2020_redistricting__132623.html

Alabama: -1 (to 6)
Arizona: +1 (to 10)
Colorado: +1 (to 8)
Florida: +2 (to 29)
Illinois: -1 (to 17)
Michigan: -1 (to 13)
Minnesota: -1 (to 7)
New York: -1 (to 26)
North Carolina: +1 (to 14)
Ohio: -1 (to 15)
Oregon: +1 (to 6)
Pennsylvania: -1 (to 17)
Rhode Island: -1 (to 1)
Texas: +3 (to 39)
West Virginia: -1 (to 2)

This would be a +3 net for 2024.
 
I don't see how RCP thinks CA might lose a seat since most other projections thinks it could gain a seat and it's currently outpacing the US growth (5.0% growth for the US versus 5.4% growth for the US).
 
Devos' hearing was the Dems best showing at a hearing so far, I think. Multiple Senators (Warren, Sanders, Kaine, Franken, Hassan, Murray, Murphy) all had their moment. Of course she will be confirmed without any problems as she is a wet dream for the GOP, but it's good meat for the base.
 
Devos' hearing was the Dems best showing at a hearing so far, I think. Multiple Senators had their moment. Of course she will be confirmed without any problem as she is a wet dream for the GOP, but it's good meat for the base.

Agreed. Every Senator on that committee from Hassan to Bernie to Kaine to Murray to Warren did a great job.
 
How the fuck is Idaho ranked 9th for population growth? Why would anyone move here? If you're coming this far you might as well move to Oregon or Washington, they're so much nicer.

I don't see how RCP thinks CA might lose a seat since most other projections thinks it could gain a seat and it's currently outpacing the US growth (5.0% growth for the US versus 5.4% growth for the US).
Maybe it was overrepresented in the last census and they think it might not keep pace to do do that?
 

Grexeno

Member
How the fuck is Idaho ranked 9th for population growth? Why would anyone move here? If you're coming this far you might as well move to Oregon or Washington, they're so much nicer.
Everyone's already moved to Oregon and Washington so now no one can afford to move there anymore?
 
Many people did not survive.

Said every major fallen world power ever.

I feel like this kind of thinking is a bit dangerous. We need to stop acting like Trump is "THE END" and instead just act like he's dangerous and prep up the resistances and counter-meaaures.

Seriously I feel like some Gaffers here are borderline suicidal right now with the way I'm reading most posts since the election.

This is not a healthy mindset.
 
How the fuck is Idaho ranked 9th for population growth? Why would anyone move here? If you're coming this far you might as well move to Oregon or Washington, they're so much nicer.

Maybe it was overrepresented in the last census and they think it might not keep pace to do do that?

Uhh, dude, Mormons have lots of children.

Lots of children.
 
How the fuck is Idaho ranked 9th for population growth? Why would anyone move here? If you're coming this far you might as well move to Oregon or Washington, they're so much nicer.

Maybe it was overrepresented in the last census and they think it might not keep pace to do do that?

No, he did it based on the available data on estimates of growth, but all data I can find has CA outpacing the US in %. Even some other sites think it could gain a seat.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
To my knowledge Idaho also has very low cost of living which could have something to do with it. Honestly I've always wondered why more people and business don't try to set up shop in dirt cheap states like Idaho or Mississippi. Sure they're not as glamorous as the east coast, Seattle or California and they don't have highly skilled populations but property, labor, food and such are all dirt cheap which could be enticing to young professionals and businesses needing real estate. They also don't tax anyone that actually has money there (at least in Mississippi).
 
I feel like this kind of thinking is a bit dangerous. We need to stop acting like Trump is "THE END" and instead just act like he's dangerous and prep up the resistances and counter-meaaures.

Seriously I feel like some Gaffers here are borderline suicidal right now with the way I'm reading most posts since the election.

This is not a healthy mindset.
I was understandably distraught the first two weeks post-election. Now? I see Trump as a really amazing opportunity to reignite the type of civil activism more common in prior generations and possibly hyperfocus the Left on addressing its turnout problem.
 
Palestinians finally agreed to form the unity government. In part because they realized Trump is an existential threat to their well-being. So in a roundabout way, progress in middle-east?
A Fatah senior official taking part in the talks in Moscow told Haaretz that "The conditions are ripe for a new unity government, both in the internal arena and the international one."

The official mentioned the recent peace conference in Paris, the UN Security Council resolution criticizing the settlements and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's election as some of the reasons behind the deal. "A unity government is of strategic importance for the Palestinians," he said.
My guess is that they realized that it's a very real possibility that East Jerusalem is forever gone after Trump is in.
 

royalan

Member
I feel like this kind of thinking is a bit dangerous. We need to stop acting like Trump is "THE END" and instead just act like he's dangerous and prep up the resistances and counter-meaaures.

Seriously I feel like some Gaffers here are borderline suicidal right now with the way I'm reading most posts since the election.

This is not a healthy mindset.

Sorry, too busy organizing to be suicidal.

And how exactly do you accomplish the bold? Liberals can't have it both ways. You can't communicate the ways in which a man like Trump is dangerous without acknowledging that if Trump and Republicans are even half successful at accomplishing the things they say they want to accomplish, it could lead to dire consequences for a lot of innocent people in this country.

Like it or not, but this has the potential to be "THE END" to any progressive gains this country has seen under the last two Democratic administrations. More of the left need to start adopting that message if we want people to stay engaged, instead of going "guys it won't be THAT bad" and then wondering why people don't get off their couches.
 
I feel like this kind of thinking is a bit dangerous. We need to stop acting like Trump is "THE END" and instead just act like he's dangerous and prep up the resistances and counter-meaaures.

Seriously I feel like some Gaffers here are borderline suicidal right now with the way I'm reading most posts since the election.

This is not a healthy mindset.

I agree. The scariest point (in my opinion) in our history would be the Great Depression, which came shortly (relatively speaking) after WWI. Imagine going from repeaters in the West and the Civil War (or Spanish American War), and then going into WWI where you see planes dropping bombs, gas attacks, automatic machine guns, tanks, zeppelins, etc... That's end of the world stuff. Then fast forward with that same anxiety and watch the world economy crash (insanely worse than our most recent one, which was horrible).

That's when you shit your pants and start prepping. As of right now, we have an incompetent man taking charge of nukes. That's scary, but until shit actually happens, it's better to focus on preparations for all of the regular GOP fuckery we're going to see.

edit:
Sorry, too busy organizing to be suicidal.

And how exactly do you accomplish the bold? Liberals can't have it both ways. You can't communicate the ways in which a man like Trump is dangerous without acknowledging that if Trump and Republicans are even half successful at accomplishing the things they say they want to accomplish, it could lead to dire consequences for a lot of innocent people in this country.

Like it or not, but this has the potential to be "THE END" to any progressive gains this country has seen under the last two Democratic administrations. More of the left need to start adopting that message if we want people to stay engaged, instead of going "guys it won't be THAT bad" and then wondering why people don't get off their couches.

I disagree that this engages people. Some people, sure. But there are posts in this thread (on this page even) that are from despondent people who don't seem like they'd make great volunteers or organizers in that state of mind.

If you tell a person that they're fucked and the world is ending and we're all gonna die, how do you think a rational person reacts to that? If you're fucked for the next 2 years anyway (we are, 2 years is the earliest we get back to the ballot box), then you can't rationally argue that you have options. According to world-ending posts, we'll all be fucked by June. Who cares about midterms then?
 
Uhh, dude, Mormons have lots of children.

Lots of children.
I mean sure but so do Catholics and I don't see New England booming.

To my knowledge Idaho also has very low cost of living which could have something to do with it. Honestly I've always wondered why more people and business don't try to set up shop in dirt cheap states like Idaho or Mississippi. Sure they're not as glamorous as the east coast, Seattle or California and they don't have highly skilled populations but property, labor, food and such are all dirt cheap which could be enticing to young professionals and businesses needing real estate. They also don't tax anyone that actually has money there (at least in Mississippi).
No one lives anywhere big enough other than Boise to go start a business in unless they already live in the area. My hometown sees plenty of new businesses but most of them fail (so many Mexican restaraunts) and they're from local people or big chains like McDonald's. Except Boise there just isn't enough people to buy your shit.
 

Ogodei

Member
Actually this year but flip AZ and FL and we get a narrow win. Giving up on the Rust Belt is still a stupid idea but I think AZ/FL/WI/PA/MI seem like the five states we try to win, plus making sure MN and NH hold.

Pennsylvania is absolutely recoverable (population in non-Pittsburgh/Philly is dying out much faster), and Florida can be swung, especially if the rural whites who turned out hard for Trump get disillusioned by the lack of a wall + a lack of a functioning individual health insurance market. Get those two and that's about it.

Wisconsin's also handily recoverable, unless Walker keeps running it into the ground to get more people to leave.

Michigan's probably gone as the GOP makes the blue parts of the state literally uninhabitable.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
No one lives anywhere big enough other than Boise to go start a business in unless they already live in the area. My hometown sees plenty of new businesses but most of them fail (so many Mexican restaraunts) and they're from local people or big chains like McDonald's. Except Boise there just isn't enough people to buy your shit.
I've always thought something more along the lines of factories and even tech companies where you don't have to sell your product locally. Of course I don't live in a place like that nor do I know much about business.
 

royalan

Member
I agree. The scariest point (in my opinion) in our history would be the Great Depression, which came shortly (relatively speaking) after WWI. Imagine going from repeaters in the West and the Civil War (or Spanish American War), and then going into WWI where you see planes dropping bombs, gas attacks, automatic machine guns, tanks, zeppelins, etc... That's end of the world stuff. Then fast forward with that same anxiety and watch the world economy crash (insanely worse than our most recent one, which was horrible).

That's when you shit your pants and start prepping. As of right now, we have an incompetent man taking charge of nukes. That's scary, but until shit actually happens, it's better to focus on preparations for all of the regular GOP fuckery we're going to see.

What about the confirmation hearings this week and Putin practically gloating about Trump in press conferences is "regular GOP fuckery"? Nothing about this is regular.

And frankly, I LIKE that people are freaking out and treating these circumstances with the weight they deserve. The Women's March on Washington, #SavetheACA, the unprecedented levels of grassroots organizing we're seeing on the left. People are HUNGRY to do something. It's sad that we need it, but it hearkens to the days of Women's Suffrage and the Civil Rights Movement, and it would NOT be happening if we were just about to get another 4 year dose of "regular GOP fuckery."

EDIT: As someone who is involved in a few grassroots organizations here in Philly, I can honestly say that NOBODY I have met is treating this like just another GOP presidency, and thank God for that. This is an all-out assault on progressive values like we haven't seen in this country in decades.
 

numble

Member
How the fuck is Idaho ranked 9th for population growth? Why would anyone move here? If you're coming this far you might as well move to Oregon or Washington, they're so much nicer.

Maybe it was overrepresented in the last census and they think it might not keep pace to do do that?

Idaho is actually ranked 3rd in terms of percentage growth and not in the top 10 in numerical growth.
http://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2016/cb16-214.html

It starts from a small base. If 30,000 people move to Idaho, that is nearly 2% growth. If 30,000 people move to California, that is 0.07% growth.
 
To my knowledge Idaho also has very low cost of living which could have something to do with it. Honestly I've always wondered why more people and business don't try to set up shop in dirt cheap states like Idaho or Mississippi. Sure they're not as glamorous as the east coast, Seattle or California and they don't have highly skilled populations but property, labor, food and such are all dirt cheap which could be enticing to young professionals and businesses needing real estate. They also don't tax anyone that actually has money there (at least in Mississippi).

Places here in MS are rising in population, but it's rare and mostly the college towns (so transient, at least compared to other places). MS also has the issue of an incredibly rural population distribution; our largest city is like 6-7% of our total population. We're not built like Maryland where you can reasonably lean on Baltimore to save your bacon from the hicks; here, the cities get strip-mined of their money to fund the welfa*ahem* job creation in the boonies
but never the Delta.

What about the confirmation hearings this week and Putin practically gloating about Trump in press conferences is "regular GOP fuckery"? Nothing about this is regular.

And frankly, I LIKE that people are freaking out and treating these circumstances with the weight they deserve. The Women's March on Washington, #SavetheACA, the unprecedented levels of grassroots organizing we're seeing on the left. People are HUNGRY to do something. It's sad that we need it, but it hearkens to the days of Women's Suffrage and the Civil Rights Movement, and it would NOT be happening if we were just about to get another 4 year dose of "regular GOP fuckery."

EDIT: As someone who is involved in a few grassroots organizations here in Philly, I can honestly say that NOBODY I have met is treating this like just another GOP presidency, and thank God for that. This is an all-out assault on progressive values like we haven't seen in this country in decades.

"Haven't seen in decades" is not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about people arguing that this is literally the end of our species and shit. And we've had literal Soviet spies working in Congress before. Yes, our President is now a shill and not just a Senator, but this is not even close to the most hostile foreign powers have been to the US.
 
Honestly I feel like everything that stayed blue last year, in what was basically the red rural wave, is out of reach for Trump in 2020.

States that could easily flip blue unless the red rural wave repeats itself: North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Maine's 2nd District, and Nebraska's Second District.

States that would require a blue wave a la 2008 to flip blue: Texas, North Dakota, Alaska, Montana, South Carolina.

States that used to swing states but are now safely red: Ohio and Iowa
 

royalan

Member
"Haven't seen in decades" is not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about people arguing that this is literally the end of our species and shit. And we've had literal Soviet spies working in Congress before. Yes, our President is now a shill and not just a Senator, but this is not even close to the most hostile foreign powers have been to the US.

But who is actually saying that? This is basically a strawman.

People can and SHOULD be alarmed. No, the world is about to be blown up. But it shouldn't have to be for fucking liberals to get the fear of God in them. Things have the potential, with this Trump administration, to get really bad, really quick. And it would be dumb to actually wait for that to happen when the writing is on the wall.
 
How the fuck is Idaho ranked 9th for population growth? Why would anyone move here? If you're coming this far you might as well move to Oregon or Washington, they're so much nicer.

Maybe it was overrepresented in the last census and they think it might not keep pace to do do that?


I believe it has to do with oil and gas industry coming to the state. Not as prominent as some other states but definitely having an impact there.
 
I agree. The scariest point (in my opinion) in our history would be the Great Depression, which came shortly (relatively speaking) after WWI. Imagine going from repeaters in the West and the Civil War (or Spanish American War), and then going into WWI where you see planes dropping bombs, gas attacks, automatic machine guns, tanks, zeppelins, etc... That's end of the world stuff. Then fast forward with that same anxiety and watch the world economy crash (insanely worse than our most recent one, which was horrible).

That's when you shit your pants and start prepping. As of right now, we have an incompetent man taking charge of nukes. That's scary, but until shit actually happens, it's better to focus on preparations for all of the regular GOP fuckery we're going to see.

The influenza was actually much worse than WW1 for the United States.

1915 to 1945 was a pretty horrible time for America (it's like 1914 to 1976 for the world).
 
The influenza was actually much worse than WW1 for the United States.

1915 to 1945 was a pretty horrible time for America (it's like 1914 to 1976 for the world).

That's another reason I picked post-Depression for scariest time ever. If you're sitting around in 1938, having experienced the last 20 years and hearing about Europe getting conquered, you would rightfully feel much worse than any other point I can think of (I mean, fall of Rome and whatnot would suck, but we know from hindsight that the Romans, much as they liked to talk, didn't actually control the entire world.)

But who is actually saying that? This is basically a strawman.

People can and SHOULD be alarmed. No, the world is about to be blown up. But it shouldn't have to be for fucking liberals to get the fear of God in them. Things have the potential, with this Trump administration, to get really bad, really quick. And it would be dumb to actually wait for that to happen when the writing is on the wall.

This very page has a post where a person, thinking that we're fucked, is asking why they can't just throw their hands up and give up. Logically speaking, they're right to say that given the conditions.

It's great to organize. It's what we should be doing. But logically, there's no reason to organize if you can't do anything. Ergo, we must be able to do something (or you're behaving illogically). I think it's the former, as do you apparently.
 
Trump may not completely work with Republicans. I say that he won't get much done and some of the things he might try to do( which might be exclusively through executive actions) will be really unpopular( tariffs) . I think Congress productivity will be as bad or if not worse in some ways as Obama's 2nd term; which will cause plenty of conflicts between Trump and Congress. He'll take action himself while bypassing Congress sometime down the road.

Mitch McConnell said that in the first nine months they will focus on ACA and tax reform; if there is no replacement and there's a big fallout. I think both Congress and the Trump administration extremely focused on those two issues for the most of Trump's term,especially if there would be fights with some of policies like tax reform.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/donald-trump-paul-ryan-agenda-233712
Paul Ryan invited Donald Trump's most senior advisers to Capitol Hill a week ago to head off a quiet tug-of-war between congressional Republicans and Trump officials over tax reform. For more than two hours, the speaker laid out his alternative to Trump's plan to slap tariffs on companies that move jobs overseas, which he believed would encourage companies to stay in the U.S.

But not even a week later, Trump dismissed Ryan's idea, calling it ”too complicated." And now Ryan is left with a potential trillion-dollar hole in his tax plan.

It's a wake-up call for GOP leaders, many of whom hoped Trump would let them take the lead in writing legislation to carry out his campaign agenda, given his own lack of policy experience.

Trump clearly doesn't see it that way.

His most recent dismissal of a cornerstone of Ryan's tax plan is perhaps the most surprising yet, given the impossible position in which it puts the speaker. Ryan (R-Wis.) and Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas) had spent months crafting their so-called border adjustable business tax on imports, which they say would bring in $1 trillion over a decade. The duo needs that money to finance tax cuts for Americans and U.S. businesses. Remove it from the equation and it's hard to see how tax reform — a top priority for Trump and Ryan — happens.

”Anytime I hear 'border adjustment,' I don't love it," Trump told The Wall Street Journal on Friday. ”Because usually it means we're going to get adjusted into a bad deal. That's what happens."

Republicans realized how quickly Trump could upset their plans when he told The New York Times earlier this month that Obamacare repeal should coincide with a vote on an alternative. GOP leadership just before the New Year had sketched out a plan to repeal Obamacare in the first 100 days of the new administration and pass replacement legislation by year's end.

”Our legislating on Obamacare, our repealing and replacing and transitioning, the legislating will occur this year," Ryan told reporters at a Jan. 5 news conference.

Six days later, Trump disagreed. ”It'll be repeal and replace. It will be essentially, simultaneously.... the same day or the same week, but probably, the same day, could be the same hour," he said at his own news conference.

Now, House and Senate committees — some that settled on their membership for the new Congress just days ago — will have to quickly write both repeal and replacement proposals in a matter of weeks. They had thought they'd have months.

Some GOP insiders on Capitol Hill privately downplay Trump's policy remarks. They argue that Trump's policy team is well aware how complicated these issues are and that it understands it will be hard, if not impossible, to do as he's asking. Some Hill Republicans are crossing their fingers that Trump will allow them to proceed as they were, despite his remarks.

If not, they'll have to make a choice: Follow the new, unorthodox head of their party, or stick to their guns and dare Trump to wield his veto pen.
 
Trump may not completely work with Republicans. I say that he won't get much done and some of the things he might try to do( which might be exclusively through executive actions) will be really unpopular( tariffs) .

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/donald-trump-paul-ryan-agenda-233712

This is one of those things we can push hard on. The GOP is obsessed with legislation that will kill them politically (the AARP would annihilate them for half of this shit), and we need to stop being good sports and keeping their hands off the stove. Let them touch it.
 
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