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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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R

Roland_Gunner

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
What do you mean?

Republicans didn't need anyone to pull their party together. They did better without a figurehead at the top and 10 different factions voting for different GOP candidates for different reasons.
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Nearly 8 million jobs were lost between the time Obama was elected and the 2010 mid-terms. That is like 10x more important than any structural thing that happened with the GOP.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
https://electionsmith.wordpress.com...-rates-in-florida-by-party-and-raceethnicity/

According to the Florida Division of Elections, some 9.58m Floridians turned out to vote in the 2016 General Election, or 74.5% of the ”Active" registered voters at the time of the state's October bookclosing.

After some routine parsing and cleaning (more on that later), I've crunched the numbers from the January 10, 2017 statewide voter file and vote history files.

According to these records, some 9.592m registered voters (active & inactive) cast ballots in the 2016 General Election, or 69.98% of the state's 13.7m registered voters. When limiting votes cast to just those who are considered ”Active" by the counties, the total votes cast drops to 9.590m, indicating that nearly 2,600 ”inactive" voters cast ballots. (The plurality of these ”inactive" voters, incidentally, were Democrats.)

As for turnout among party registrants (limiting the following analysis to ”active" voters), 74.4% of the state's 4.908m Democrats turned out to vote. In contrast, 81.2% of the state's 4.577m registered Republicans cast ballots. Only 63.3% of the state's 3.132m No Party Affiliates (NPAs) voted, whereas 70.2% of the 347k Third Party registrants turned out.

With respect to turnout by race/ethnicity, 77.1% of the state's 8.302m white voters voted. That's considerably higher than the 68.9% turnout rate of the state's 2.055m registered Hispanics and the 69.0% turnout rate of the state's 1.743m registered blacks.

What about race/ethnicity by party?

Among Democrats, 77.5% of the 2.39m white Democrats voted; 70.9% of the 812k Hispanic Democrats voted; and 72.1% of the 1.41m black Democrats voted.

Among Republicans, 82.6% of the 3.814m white Republicans voted; 75.4% of the 519k Hispanic Republicans voted; and 61.2% of the 61.3k black Republicans voted.

Among NPAs, 66.0% of the 1.819m white NPAs voted; 61.9% of the 693k Hispanic NPAs voted; and 54.1% of the 255k black NPAs voted.

In previous posts, I've documented extensively the early in-person and vote-by-mail turnout rates by party and race, but until now, we haven't been able to delve into Election Day turnout. I'm working on a couple of academic papers on this topic, so I'm not going to go into details here.

But here's the kicker:

Of the roughly 2.959m voters who cast ballots on Election Day, 39.5% of ballots cast were by Republicans. Only 34.2% of ballots cast on Election Day were by Democrats. Another 23.4% of Election Day ballots were cast by NPAs, and 2.9% were cast by Third Party registrants.

Say what you will about the many developments in the waning days of the campaign that likely hurt Clinton, her ground game in Florida apparently failed to deliver, as nearly 1.3m active Democrats stayed home.
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And that's how she lost Florida.
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
I also don't understand this "But he's still above 50% with Whites" bs.

He's falling across the board on the HONEYMOON period. That 52% is definitely not gonna grow if he's as bad as it seems like he will be.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Nearly 8 million jobs were lost between the time Obama was elected and the 2010 mid-terms. That is like 10x more important than any structural thing that happened with the GOP.
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Obamas legislation not meeting people's expectations caused the massive turnout that elected him to completely disappear

The unprecedented Rural turnout that handed trump the win will not turn out if he breaks promises and does not do what he said he would
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Based on polling, everyone blamed this was Bush.

Obamacare was a much bigger than the midterms.
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The job situation continues to be the dominant issue in 2010. Nearly four-in-ten likely voters (38%) say the job situation will be most important in their vote, compared with 24% who say health care will be most important and 19% who cite the deficit; just 7% of likely voters say either the situation in Afghanistan (4%) or terrorism (3%). The deficit and health care rival jobs as the top voting issue for Republicans; among Democratic and independent likely voters, far more say jobs will be most important than say any other issue.
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Way more people said the economy was the largest issue than healthcare.

http://www.pewresearch.org/2010/10/31/gop-likely-to-capture-control-of-house/
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Roland_Gunner said:
In the gallup pre-election poll both Republicans and Independents said the economy was the most important issue in the election.

naqrkz-piuisaw_mskhxca.gif
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It's almost always the most important issue, people are full of shit.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
This is true:

@daveweigel
Looking at the 2016 House map, the clearest path to the next Dem majority runs through the sun belt suburbs more than midwest.
Click to expand...

@ejfeldma
@daveweigel having worked at the 2006 DCCC i will bet you it probably runs through both. You need a big enough map--can't just pick targets
Click to expand...

‏@daveweigel
@ejfeldma Absolutely. What interests me about sun belt is the newer Dem bench. Was blown away by young AZ Dem reps I met.
Click to expand...
 
N

nature boy

Member
What could it possib...

Frank Thorp V ‏@frankthorp 27m27 minutes ago
Roger Stone tells Alex Jones that he's typically very healthy, takes "InfoWars supplements," hasn't been to the doctor since he was a child.
Click to expand...
AHAHAHA
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
nature boy said:
DAMN KILLARY
Click to expand...

Oliver Darcy tweeted more about this:

Oliver Darcy ‏@oliverdarcy
"I've had to sit on this for a week and a half," Alex Jones says. He's about to announce this "ultra important story" on the air right now.

Roger Stone is here to tell us the "stuff of a James Bond movie." Alex Jones says it will probably be "biggest" announcement he's ever made!

Roger Stone says he was poisoned by polonium or something like it and became "exceedingly ill."

Stone says that he rarely gets sick. Notes he is a "user of the InfoWars supplements."

Jones to Stone: "They think you are Donald Trump's brain!"

Alex Jones says he believes "Hillary and globalists are the main suspects"
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He can't just be sick, he uses InfoWars supplements! Must be those (((globalists))).
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
We need to shake white people's faith in God, clearly.

C2X64bXW8AAnn8H.jpg


Atheists/environmentalists/gay people (and there's a lot of overlap over those three groups) can't help white people redeem ourselves if we're such a low percentage of the population :(
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Schiff will be going the inauguration:

On Friday, I will be attending the Inauguration and on Saturday I will march with constituents who traveled to DC for the Women's March. I want to share my thoughts on these upcoming events, even though I know many of you may disagree with my decision.

This is the first time I've ever truly considered not attending an Inauguration, both because of a foreign adversarial power's role in Donald Trump's election, and because of his deplorable conduct before and after November 7.

During the campaign, I repeatedly warned of Russia's interference in our democracy and the assistance it was giving Trump by hacking and releasing documents detrimental to Secretary Clinton. In fact, as the Ranking Democrats on the House and Senate Intelligence Committees, Senator Feinstein and I took the rare step of attributing the hacks to Russia well before the Administration was wiling to, and I will be helping to lead the investigation into its pernicious interference in our affairs.

Since the election, Trump has only made matters worse, continuing his denials of the extent of Russian involvement and persisting in offensive conduct that only divides the country.

There are few people I respect more than John Lewis, a hero of the civil rights movement and a man I was honored to join in a civil rights pilgrimage to the Edmund Pettis Bridge and during a sit-in on the House floor to protest inaction on gun violence.

Trump's lack of respect for Rep. Lewis and his insulting attitude towards others offends me greatly. As I have said many times, no one is doing more to undermine the legitimacy of Donald Trump's Presidency than Donald Trump.

So why go?

In my view, Congressional participation at a Presidential Inauguration is not about the President, it's about the Presidency. Yes, many in the public attend because they are pleased with the election and want to be present when their candidate is sworn in. But the reason that Congress surrounds the new President during the ceremony -- members from both parties -- is not because both parties are pleased with the result of the election. Far from it. We participate on a bipartisan basis because we are acknowledging the peaceful transition of power that is the hallmark of our democracy.

Like many of you, I was appalled when candidate Trump wouldn't commit to respecting the result of the election if he lost. I feel I would be doing the same thing if I boycotted the ceremony in which the office of the Presidency is passed from one occupant of the office to the next. There's a reason why Senators Feinstein, Harris, Sanders and others are attending the Inauguration, and it is out of respect for the office, even if the man who is taking the oath has demonstrated little understanding of what that means. If former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton can demonstrate the grit to attend the Inauguration after Trump's slanderous attacks on her, then so can I.

On the day following the Inauguration, I will join constituents in Washington for the Women's March and participate in another fundamental aspect of our democracy -- the right to protest. Our message that day, and every day of his Presidency will be the same: That we will not allow Trump to roll back the progress we have made, that his actions and words have consequences, that we will hold him accountable, that demeaning women, minorities and anyone who disagrees with him will not be acceptable, and that we will not be silent.

Once again, thank you for sharing your thoughts and I hope you will continue to do so.
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J

Jeels

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Clinton + Kaine was one of the most religious tickets we've had in awhile, so that makes the evangelical stuff even funnier.
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I've always believed it, but I think 2016 has made it clear for everyone to see that white evangelicals aren't actually religious, they are just an extension of an evil GOP.

If they were religious they would be for a more equal society, racial tolerance, expanded healthcare coverage, less war, moral leadership, money/corruption out of politics, protection of the environment etc etc.

They should be shamed.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Can someone do some polling on the 10-15% of Hispanics that dislike Trump but voted for him?

We have a billion "This white dude voted for Trump because he thought Trump was just going to take away benefits from the minorities and not him" articles but few analyses of Hispanic voters that disliked Trump but voted for him anyway.
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
studyguy said:
Who needs a doctor, no this gigantic sore coming off of my neck is normal, where is your weeping sore?



There's no helping the Evangelical types. Hell, God himself could probably come down to earth but if he wasn't a white guy they'd probably just as quickly throw him to the wolves.
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Not a white guy? Clearly Satan playing a trick.
 
I

Infinite Stars

Member
White Christians and their following of Trump can be tied to the Prosperity Gospel bullshit that's been propagated all over the states. I've noticed that myself, that the Christians who follow the ideas tend to like Trump.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...pecially-a-triumph-for-the-prosperity-gospel/

http://time.com/donald-trump-prosperity-preachers/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/post...with-christian-voters/?utm_term=.ff690fbc9461

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/04/17/magazine/donald-trump-american-preacher.html

Basically, Wealth means God loves you, so Trump being rich means God Loves him. In case it wasn't obvious, I am very much against this corruption of the Christian faith to serve a capitalist system that willingly goes against the text in the Bible.
 
J

Jeels

Member
Infinite Stars said:
White Christians and their following of Trump can be tied to the Prosperity Gospel bullshit that's been propagated all over the states. I've noticed that myself, that the Christians who follow the ideas tend to like Trump.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...pecially-a-triumph-for-the-prosperity-gospel/

http://time.com/donald-trump-prosperity-preachers/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/post...with-christian-voters/?utm_term=.ff690fbc9461

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/04/17/magazine/donald-trump-american-preacher.html

Basically, Wealth means God loves you, so Trump being rich means God Loves him. In case it wasn't obvious, I am very much against this corruption of the Christian faith to serve a capitalist system that willingly goes against the text in the Bible.
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This is fucking disgusting. Ugh. Everytime I walk into poligaf there is something to get me so sad in humanity. :(
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
When Jesus heard this, He said to him, ”One thing you still lack; sell all that you possess and distribute it to the poor, and you shall have treasure in heaven; and come, follow Me." But when he had heard these things, he became very sad, for he was extremely rich. And Jesus looked at him and said, ”How hard it is for those who are wealthy to enter the kingdom of God! For it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God." Luke 18:22-25
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I wonder how many white evangelicals have actually read the Bible.

Because this city living liberal has, quite a few times. And went through 12 years of Catholic education. And almost became a priest.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
I hate how rusty my Bible study has become, though.

Nothing quite like arguing with a crazy evangelical and being able to quote verse after verse after verse in the bible about how massive hypocrites they are and how Jesus would be ashamed of what they've become.

Of course I sit on the high horse of Catholicism, which already means they don't trust anything I say about the Bible lol.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
The Children’s Health Insurance Program, or CHIP, was created in 1998 as part of a deal in which Democrats got health coverage for children and Republicans got a capital-gains tax cut.
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Jesus christ that sums it all up right there doesn't it?
 
V

VesperZ

Neo Member
balladofwindfishes said:
I wonder how many white evangelicals have actually read the Bible.
Click to expand...

From what I've seen they just believe whatever their pastor tells them. The only reading they do is their assigned reading prior to being told what it's supposed to mean without any opportunity (or desire I suppose) to interpret it in their own way.
 
J

Jeels

Member
The Technomancer said:
Jesus christ that sums it all up right there doesn't it?
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It really fucking does. I hate that the way CHIP had to get passed was that, but the democrats had to do what they had to do in order to help people. I can't believe how ignorant, apathetic, stupid, or just disgusting people have to be to see stuff like this happening where there is only one team actually trying to help people and another party that isn't. It's so transparent and sickening.
 
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