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[Poodlestrike]

I wonder if trump and his administration are preparing for the next hurricane season or thinking of preparing for it soon.

*Flash Forward to September, 2017

"Oh shit we should probably appoint a FEMA director soon, huh?"

 

[mo60]

Trump has so successfully cast a fake image of shrewd businessman who always gets the best deals that people have been duped into believing, since his nomination announcement in 2015, that any time things aren't going his way it's actually part of some cunning plan. And it's still going.

But yeah, as mentioned above, at some point the lies become so obvious that you can't even deliver a message other than to your most rabid supporters. It will be impossible to rally the people to win another election in those conditions.

edit: I wonder what Barron is thinking. He had to hear about the grab the pussy stuff, the Pissgate, etc. Plus Melania and Trump are probably not on good terms right now.

Yeah. Trump got insanely lucky he was facing someone else that was terrible. It may be really hard for him to win reelection next time.

 

[Veritigo_X]

I agree with royalan, it's better to overestimate him at this point. He was underestimated during the primaries, and well.

I wasn't trying to disagree with royalan. You both make good points considering I spent the last year underestimating him. I think one of the things that makes him dangerous is the fact that he isn't planning any of this out. He's just reacting to things without thinking.

 

[tuxfool]

Here is one for the grand strategy pile:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...icer-press-conference-crowd-size-inauguration

This doesn't explain how the strategy practically works, the only ones willing to join this journey into folly are his most ardent supporters. Most people are dumb and ignorant, but I don't think they'll follow into the There are Five Lights routine.

 

[Mobius and pet octopus]

Trump's strategy of gaslighting continues, in other words.

Spoiler

new avatar hype

 

[Poodlestrike]

Overestimating might not be as bad as underestimating him, but both are terrible. If we want to beat Putin and his mango marionette's madman theory bullshit, we need to form an accurate image of their goals and ignore everything they do that seems to contradict them. Assuming that Trump is some incredible chessplayer OR that he's constantly thrashing around like an especially petulant goldfish both run counter to that.

Although he's probably a lot closer to the goldfish than the grandmaster.

 

[CygnusXS]

I'm not so sure if it's a conscious strategy or a reflexive ideological response that they have the right to determine what's true without dissension.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I think he's just a compulsive liar and lives in his own fantasy land and there isn't some master plan behind it.

 

[royalan]

Here is one for the grand strategy pile:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...icer-press-conference-crowd-size-inauguration

This doesn't explain how the strategy practically works, the only ones willing to join this journey into folly are his most ardent supporters. Most people are dumb and ignorant, but I don't think they'll follow into the There are Five Lights routine.

It's simple: there's a lot of power for Trump if he can keep his base engaged. The fact-proof Trump supporter is a small segment of the population, true. But they're big enough to have influence, and they vote more reliably than Democrats. You will continue to see Republicans fearful of opposing Trump if he can keep his base on his dick, and that'll be a lot easier to do if he renders completely deligitimized the media who WILL tell the truth about his many failures and inadequacies.

We also learned from the election that blatant lies do a lot more to depress Democrats than Republicans, another thing that Trump's strategy counts on.

And I don't know why it's so hard to believe this to be an effective strategy. We're seeing it working now.

EDIT: ALSO, don't fall into the trap of thinking that the Trump Administration is JUST Trump. It's not. It's Bannon, and Conway, and Sessions. Delorable, despicable, lower-than-dirt people who ARE stretegic in their fuckery.

NEVER forget the radio silence from Trump's twitter account the last week of the election, when Comey dropped that bomb and opened up a pathway for a Trump victory. One of the few times we saw Trump not tweet. There are people in Trump's camp who are capable of strategic planning, and they know how to maneuver Trump and his blowhard idiocy to achieve their goals.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

Here is one for the grand strategy pile:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...icer-press-conference-crowd-size-inauguration

This doesn't explain how the strategy practically works, the only ones willing to join this journey into folly are his most ardent supporters. Most people are dumb and ignorant, but I don't think they'll follow into the There are Five Lights routine.

definitely see a point of backlash, the very same backlash that got trump elected in the first place. trump can talk all he wants about how the media is lying and how things are great, people are insured yadda yadda yadda, but that doesn't mean shit to the people who don't have a job that was supposedly coming back and that they lost their health insurance due to him

 

[kirblar]

Remember, Trump thought he was going to lose and was about to start Faux News II.

That's still the plan in 0-4 years.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The strategy of "our word is now impossible to trust for any foreign nation" is a really good strategy, definitely.

That won't lead to any international incidents.

Tried to convince some Nazish people who like dope to call their Senators and say they don't like Jeff "Good people don't smoke marijuana" Sessions.

They dodged and avoided it and went with "I don't want to talk about politics!!" After spending the prior 24 hours spamming Trump memes.

Come the fuck on.

 

[mjp2417]

Here is one for the grand strategy pile:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...icer-press-conference-crowd-size-inauguration

This doesn't explain how the strategy practically works, the only ones willing to join this journey into folly are his most ardent supporters. Most people are dumb and ignorant, but I don't think they'll follow into the There are Five Lights routine.

The larger strategy is fairly obvious - and one of the important things is that the blatant lie about the crowds was mixed with an actually truthful claim about the MLK bust to conflate and confuse - but the larger gambit is that Trump got elected by simply doubling down on his supporters and that those supporters will believe anything he tells them to, or listen to anyone he tells them to listen to, so long as Trump promises to build a wall and signal boost their racism, and they will in turn continue to show up at the polls. Trump's entire knowledge of political history and political campaigning appears to be telescoped around his own successful primary and presidential run, which he has spent the last 2+ months endlessly mythologizing. This, for him, is the model for success. I can't see him changing it in the interval and I would prefer not to speculate on the outcome of 2020 after getting 2016 so wrong.

 

[RustyNails]

I think he's just a compulsive liar and lives in his own fantasy land and there isn't some master plan behind it.

Nope, that's the plan. I actually wrote this in the other thread before even reading the Vox piece.

You guys dont get it. You dont think they dont know their crowd size was shit? Of course they do. They're just playing the game they played all campaign: continue delegetimizing every mainstream source other than Breitbart, Fox News or maybe RT. Their audience will thoroughly believe them and in fact, this statement was for them.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Do you know how hard it is to talk to someone who spends all of their time talking about black on black crime and about Ghost Adventures? It is hard.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Nope, that's the plan. I actually wrote this in the other thread before even reading the Vox piece.

But the people who would lose faith in regular news were already hardcore Republicans and probably didn't trust those media sources anyway.

Any random person can look at a picture of the event and see the crowd was not bigger than Obama's. And he's being called out on this lie, de-legitimatizing future statements he makes. It's one thing to make up statistics, it's another all together when there's photographic evidence that he's a liar.

 

[Wilsongt]

We are entering into a period where our president is surrounded by people who actively produce and peddle false propoganda, and we have 20% of the country that will believe it all.

That's a pretty fucking scary idea.

 

[royalan]

But the people who would lose faith in regular news were already hardcore Republicans and probably didn't trust those media sources anyway.

Any random person can look at a picture of the event and see the crowd was not bigger than Obama's. And he's being called out on this lie, de-legitimatizing future statements he makes. It's one thing to make up statistics, it's another all together when there's photographic evidence that he's a liar.

But never before have we had a Republican President be so willing to use their base and its ignorance to be so...well, evil. That's really the best word for it.

As someone I know said in a conversation, "a good Republican is hard to come by, but at least previous Republicans had sense." Trump does not, and he will now likely use that diehard Republican base to sanction things that no previous Republican president would have.

 

[metalslimer]

I have no doubt Trumps team is trying to delegitimize the media. Trump himself is fuming over the crowd sizes. His entire life he hasnt been able to control the ego

 

[UberTag]

But never before have we had a Republican President been so willing to use their base and its ignorance to be so...well, evil. That's really the best word forward.

As someone I know said in a conversation, "a good Republican is hard to come by, but at least previous Republicans had sense." Trump does not, and he will now likely use that diehard Republican base to sanction things that no previous Republican president would have.

I wonder if some Republicans are questioning to themselves just how much long-term damage this man will do their brand the longer he stays in power, throws tantrums, spins blatant lies, shuns the media, shuns the world, shuns the truth and pushes through their damning legislation intended to rob people of their civil and personal freedoms, abet Russia and tax everyone except the top 1% while creating NO jobs and inciting civil disobedience?

Do they really want to be associated with the unquestioned brand of "evil" profiteering off the ignorance of their supporters?
The National Socialist German Workers' Party sure didn't sit well in history after throwing their hat in with that label.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

When ISIS blows up a Trump Tower and Trump decides to send 100k troops to Iraq for retaliation, I'm sure people will still be saying that there's a masterplan and this is just distracting away from random bullshit.

 

[Ether_Snake]

One thing the war with the media is doing is raising the price for access. All the news outlets know that if they want an interview with Trump or his administration, they'll have to be in the top list of favorable news outlets. You'll see random pro-Trump outburst from pundits when they feel they can afford to do it. It won't be about getting viewers but more about staying in the administration's court.

CNN could chose to go all out, there's success to be had in being "Trump's most hated news media". But overall I think specific journalists will play along to have access.

 

[tuxfool]

When ISIS blows up a Trump Tower and Trump decides to send 100k troops to Iraq for retaliation, I'm sure people will still be saying that there's a masterplan and this is just distracting away from random bullshit.

Who says this isn't the plan? Or even if it isn't, whether they care? To them it is an opportunity.

 

[Abinash117]

I think some people are slightly overestimating the strategy for a few reasons:

1. To me, the strategy needs to work if people already trust the media more than Trump. The thing is Trump is actually already considered dishonest judging by a poll during a poll leading up to the election. Additionally, many people need to support him as well because it would add to his credibility. If he has low approval ratings it already means that many aren't just willing to buy him - not completely.

2. The election has already tainted him with negativity. A large portions of people already think he is an asshole that has not really changed, and his further behavior has enforced that belief.

3. Americans already don't trust the media, for various of reasons, but they trust media that they already consume. Meaning liberals will trust sources that is already liberal or is reputable to them already and the same for conservatives. People in the middle or just causal news watchers will either get the information online using social media or online news outlets, or from popular news outlets like CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, etc. Despite not trust the news people trust news that favor what they want to see or hear typically.
Pro-Trump already either watch Breitbart and Fox News probably.


The strategy can help de-legitimatize the media, but Trump is already untrustworthy and people are already biased. For Trump, saying everything is fake news or wrong will likely mean to many, that he is lying himself because they see it as a deflection or a way of trying deny something that still might be false, but really doesn't matter if it is because you keep denying it so it seems true.

Steve Bannon admires people like Hitler, and probably thinks that de-legitimatizing the media, controlling the narrative, and creating a bogeyman can help Trump enact his policies much easier and with tact approval like the infrastructure plan. I just don't think this people involved, including Trump and Bannon even understand the climate that they are in. They have a strategy, but they don't have good tactics.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

CNN is brutal right now it is almost unfair how they are killing them with facts

 

[Y2Kev]

It's almost as though a black man named Barrack Hussein Obama wasn't just President, and now a silver-spoon racist moron IS President.

Background matters exactly this much: -100000000

Dems need to nominate someone charismatic, who can deliver killer speeches, think on their feet, CAMPAIGN, and play the game of politics.

Background does not matter. Might as well be discussing the color of the soles of their socks.

It's not about background, it's about authenticity. Hillary had an authenticity issue speaking to the middle class (white AND nonwhite). Trump, for whatever reason, connected as honest about the poors. Like, I don't get why. Don't ask me why. But he did.

You need someone who can talk about being middle class and talk about being aspirational and sell his policies as aspirational and have people believe him.

 

[thepotatoman]

Trump has demonstrated a mastery at leading the media to cover stupid little stories like this. I'm left wondering who played whom?

I subscribe to the theory that they're both idiots, with trump being the lucky benefactor.

 

[RustyNails]

Trump, for whatever reason, connected as honest about the poors. Like, I don't get why. Don't ask me why. But he did.

You need someone who can talk about being middle class and talk about being aspirational and sell his policies as aspirational and have people believe him.

NPR did like a scientific study about this and it came down to language. He spoke like a third grader. Hillary, well, spoke like a teacher. In the end it came down to who you "connected" with, and even though Trump's rating is absurdly pants-on-fire in politifact, people still found him more trustworthy.

All good politicians speak like a nice southernly gentleman with a drawl and easy folksy persona. Obama was actually good at this. Bill, W, Reagan, going back to Carter. HW was an anomaly but he had that Texas thing going for him.

 

[kirblar]

It's not about background, it's about authenticity. Hillary had an authenticity issue speaking to the middle class (white AND nonwhite). Trump, for whatever reason, connected as honest about the poors. Like, I don't get why. Don't ask me why. But he did.

You need someone who can talk about being middle class and talk about being aspirational and sell his policies as aspirational and have people believe him.

The issue is that Hillary is not a good liar.

That's the actual core of the "authenticity" issue - people don't actually want honesty, they want good bullshitters.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

The media is not going to lose though. Trump has driven their ratings up already, especially CNN. They were going to increase anyway because there's a market for anti-Trump news...but mix in an incredibly antagonistic media relationship with the president and you get even more fireworks.

His approval ratings are already low. What's he going to look like after a year of this nonstop escalation and aggression? Manufacturing jobs aren't going to magically re-appear between now and 2018 (or ever). The jobs market won't be drastically different unless we have a recession. So he'll have to rely on a very aggressive far right legislative agenda, attacking the press...that's about it right? Maybe a war, who knows.

 

[thepotatoman]

The issue is that Hillary is not a good liar.

That's the actual core of the "authenticity" issue - people don't actually want honesty, they want good bullshitters.

I think it's a little more nuanced than that. They want someone they can trust to do things with their best interests in mind when they're not paying attention, which apparently bold faced lying isn't necessarily a deal breaker for.

At least for the right, where they have a lot harder time saying what they think than the left does, out of fears of being called racist.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Going over House seats would take a bit so I won't for right now.

There's not much opportunity in the Senate unfortunately because Dems had a big wave year in 06 that they expanded upon in 2012. Only real opportunities are Nevada (Dean Heller, won by less than a point in 2012) and Arizona (Jeff Flake, won by 3 points) while we're defending a lot of vulnerable incumbents. The best we could do, holding every D-held seat and flipping those two would still just tie the Senate, effectively giving Rs control as Pence would be tiebreaker.

The big cheese for Democrats will be the governor's races. Hillary states with R governors up in 2018 include:

Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Vermont

Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin - all close last year - will also have gubernatorial elections.

Potentially vulnerable Dem-held seats: Alaska (kind of), Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota, Pennsylvania

The future senate landscape for the Democrats is going to be dicey:

Perma R Seats

Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Louisiana
Alabama
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Tennessee
Arkansas
South Carolina
*Texas
*Alaska
*Iowa
*Georgia
*Arizona

*Iowa shift is permanent. Texas, Georgia and Arizona are a decade or more too soon. Begich win was a fluke.

38 seats

Assume the Trump/Romney 5 all lose due to partisan pres state swing catching up + the 5 they have.
Montana
Missouri
West Virginia
North Dakota
Indiana

+10 = 48 seats


Ohio
goes R permanent. Brown loses + Portman

+2 =50


Fight or hold in 2018, 2020, 2022
Pennsylvania
Florida
Wisconsin
Michigan
Maine
Colorado
Nevada
North Carolina

+/- 16 seats with them R's controlling 8 of them currently

the latter 3 Collins, Heller & Gardner the only ones left in Hillary states.

 

[mo60]

I just recognized something. Despite Michigan swinging to trump in November Kent County actually ended up being a lot more democratic than 2012. Maybe that is one michigan county democrats could potentially target if they want to win michigan on the presidential and maybe state level in 2018 and 2020.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Let's say Trump decides to take the guns if there's another Sandy Hook or something (because Trump is a gun grabber at heart).

Would 15 Republican Senators go along with Trump to massively curtail gun rights?

 

[Wilsongt]

Let's say Trump decides to take the guns if there's another Sandy Hook or something (because Trump is a gun grabber at heart).

Would 15 Republican Senators go along with Trump to massively curtail gun rights?

Only if a black person does it. if a white person does it, it's mental illness. If a brown person does it, it's terrorism.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

It's not about background, it's about authenticity. Hillary had an authenticity issue speaking to the middle class (white AND nonwhite). Trump, for whatever reason, connected as honest about the poors. Like, I don't get why. Don't ask me why. But he did.

You need someone who can talk about being middle class and talk about being aspirational and sell his policies as aspirational and have people believe him.

People simply didn't care and many knew the perception she was trying to sell was BS. Alternatively, people believed in the perception Donald was trying to sell of railing against the establishment due to his rhetoric + the fact folks did virtually everything they could to stop him along the way.

 

[Teggy]

.

 

[royalan]

It's not about background, it's about authenticity. Hillary had an authenticity issue speaking to the middle class (white AND nonwhite). Trump, for whatever reason, connected as honest about the poors. Like, I don't get why. Don't ask me why. But he did.

You need someone who can talk about being middle class and talk about being aspirational and sell his policies as aspirational and have people believe him.

I absolutely agree with this. And it highlights how little background matters.

We can talk about the Hillary today who is a rich old white woman. But she wasn't born wealthy. She grew up in a middle class life. Her fault was her inability to connect in that way.

Whereas Trump was born wealthy, and has never known a hardship his entire life. But because he's simple, he connects. Not to say that all of his voters are dumb (although quite a few are), but it's easy to believe that someone stands for you when they remind you of your idiot cousin, and they don't use big, intimidating words.

So Democrats need to find that candidate who knows how to connect. The "We need a candidate with [insert physical traits here] from [insert swing state here]" debate is the most useless debate to have now, and going forward. Like, there is no worth whatsoever in it.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Trump purposefully starting a war with the media right before the media was willing to promote Paul Ryan's lies about Obamacare seems not bright at all, I'm going to say.

Obamcare is a lot more popular than Trump so Trump needs the media to be willing to play along with him on his Trumpcare... But uhh, the probability of that happening decreased today.

So, if it was purposeful, it was bad tactics.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I absolutely agree with this. And it highlights how little background matters.

We can talk about the Hillary today who is a rich old white woman. But she wasn't born wealthy. She grew up in a middle class life. Her fault was her inability to connect in that way.

Whereas Trump was born wealthy, and has never known a hardship his entire life. But because he's simple, he connects. Not to say that all of his voters are dumb (although quite a few are), but it's easy to believe that someone stands for you when they remind you of your idiot cousin, and they don't use big, intimidating words.

So Democrats need to find that candidate who knows how to connect. The "We need a candidate with [insert physical traits here] from [insert swing state here]" debate is the most useless debate to have now, and going forward. Like, there is no worth whatsoever in it.

Who to have a beer with, gotcha.

 

[Plinko]

If any of you have watched TV dramas that have a coherent story arc, you know that episodes are written to end in a way that make the viewer feel like the story is either going against the characters or in favor of the characters. Early on, 24 was great at this, but most of them ended with the bad guys having an advantage.

Ever since the election, I have gone to bed each night feeling like I just watched an episode of 24. No real advancement for the good guys, no feeling of hope.

With today's press conference meltdown along with the millions of Americans out marching today, I actually feel like we've had an episode where the good guys have a slight advantage. I hope we have many more.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Who to have a beer with, gotcha.

Hmm, not sure this is the correct way of describing it.

Trump is obviously insufferable and almost everyone would hate having a beer with him because people like to talk about themselves but Trump doesn't like to listen to people talking about themselves.

I don't think (even assuming Trump drank beer) any of his voters would like to have a beer with him.

 

[royalan]

Who to have a beer with, gotcha.

Hey, don't be mad at me. You think it's stupid. I think it's stupid. I'd love to live in a country that placed more worth in being informed. But it's what wins the American electorate.

I've said it before in this OT and real life (and have an easier time in real life, tbh), and I'll keep saying it until Democrats get it:

Politics is performance, and Democrats lose up and down the ticket when they forget that.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

Yep, there's a lot of momentum here, Dems just need to take advantage of it.

btw, I'm glad that absolutely nobody at the DNC debate last week entertained the Identity Politics dogwhistle

 

[Retromelon]

Fire starting boy at trump protest says "screw our president"

This kid is a hero and I hope he posts in poligaf when he grows up

 

[mo60]

Putin wants to talk to his buddy trump in the coming days.
http://thehill.com/policy/international/315437-putin-to-call-trump-in-coming-days

 

[royalan]

Putin wants to talk to his buddy trump in the coming days.
http://thehill.com/policy/international/315437-putin-to-call-trump-in-coming-days

I guess this will be when they show the piss-play footage and then give him an updated list of their policy demands.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

https://twitter.com/matthewfederman/status/822964826624311296

If someone is willing to lie to you about what you can see with your own eyes, imagine what they'll lie about that you can't see.

 

[mo60]

The media is not going to lose though. Trump has driven their ratings up already, especially CNN. They were going to increase anyway because there's a market for anti-Trump news...but mix in an incredibly antagonistic media relationship with the president and you get even more fireworks.

His approval ratings are already low. What's he going to look like after a year of this nonstop escalation and aggression? Manufacturing jobs aren't going to magically re-appear between now and 2018 (or ever). The jobs market won't be drastically different unless we have a recession. So he'll have to rely on a very aggressive far right legislative agenda, attacking the press...that's about it right? Maybe a war, who knows.

If he tries to start a war I think he has no chance of getting a second term. I don't think people in the US want to experience another war. Also trump supporting media is so angry about the women march right now.

 

[Teggy]

This right here. This is a piece of shit (which we already knew, of course)

David A. Clarke, Jr.‏ @SheriffClarke

Analysis of Women's riot today in DC. Overwhelming white women. Black and Latino women were absent. So typical of this socialist movement.
9:54 PM · Jan 21, 2017